Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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232. JLPR2
Huzzah! 16L became Patty, now I'm more interested in 98L, the idea of a storm named Patty in my area wasn't very exciting.
Bring on Rafael!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Its still too early to say if 98L will miss the Eastern Caribbean and where from PR to Bermuda and the Lesser Antilles should be watching. Also it will be interesting to see what happens to Patty if it makes it into the NW Caribbean.


It would be interesting to see what happens to PATTY if she enters the western Caribbean.
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Quoting Grothar:


So, do you think PATTY will become stationary or do you think PATTY will start moving faster SW. Or will PATTY just meander and not move. I wonder how many people didn't know we would have a PATTY this soon. I wonder how many other storms were named PATTY?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Geoff, is that PATTY up there?

Looks like Grothar's having fun with PATTY, while she is still alive... Glad to see your enjoying her company gro. ;)
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98L's Circulation is forming at 12.5 N ; 58.7 W

Trying to get going... Wouldn't surprise me to see a renumber between the next 6-24 Hours...
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hey Geoff, is that PATTY up there?
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just visited a dominica weather blog, they are really getting the rains from 98 now
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5Day!!!:) Fall is here in FL!!!:)

6day
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Quoting kmanislander:
Patty is caught in the weakness between the two highs, hence no motion. However, the gap has closed up appreciably since this morning.



So, do you think PATTY will become stationary or do you think PATTY will start moving faster SW. Or will PATTY just meander and not move. I wonder how many people didn't know we would have a PATTY this soon. I wonder how many other storms were named PATTY?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Not so fast. This thing still needs about 6 more hours of some decent organization before the NHC decides to do anything else with it. It is consolidating, yes, and we shall see an Increase to code red on this, yes, But this will not be a TS only 6 hours after they said it has a 50% chance... They will formally bring 98L up to 70%, then Luanch advisories at 11pm or 5am...

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL in the makings...

17 Named storms BABY! YEAHHHH


The 98L have what appears to be a closed LLC and the NHC have been saying that this has near TS force wind in the heavier squalls and on of those squalls is firing up right over the LLC it possible although it more likely to be 11pm.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Not so fast. This thing still needs about 6 more hours of some decent organization before the NHC decides to do anything else with it. It is consolidating, yes, and we shall see an Increase to code red on this, yes, But this will not be a TS only 6 hours after they said it has a 50% chance... They will formally bring 98L up to 70%, then Luanch advisories at 11pm or 5am...

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL in the makings...

17 Named storms BABY! YEAHHHH

Do you think Im getting to excited about having 3 seasons in a row with more than 16 named storms?
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Have to go now. Back later
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Quoting LargoFl:
ok thanks


This is the GFS for Monday next. You can see ex Patty as a 1008 mb low over Cuba and near to the NW Caribbean

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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Yes this might be renumbered on the ATFC file later this evening there is clearly a consolidating LLC to the SE of Barbados and there is a nice burst of convection over the LLC if that can increase this is a TS by 8pm.

Not so fast. This thing still needs about 6 more hours of some decent organization before the NHC decides to do anything else with it. It is consolidating, yes, and we shall see an Increase to code red on this, yes, But this will not be a TS only 6 hours after they said it has a 50% chance... They will formally bring 98L up to 70%, then Luanch advisories at 11pm or 5am...

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL in the makings...

17 Named storms BABY! YEAHHHH
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Quoting kmanislander:
Patty is caught in the weakness between the two highs, hence no motion. However, the gap has closed up appreciably since this morning.



Hmmm If those Highs bridge then everything might get shoved westward. Anyways thats a well pronounced ridge over the gulf.
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I vow not to call her Patty until you do. ;)


No. I was just messing with Taz, who I thought was a friend and could take a joke. Obviously he likes embarrassing people on the blog, something which I do not do. I had already corrected TD16 to Patty, but as usual he couldn't wait to correct somebody. If I ever see someone put something down incorrectly, I write to them off-blog. I see now that some people just sit and wait to correct someone else.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Forecasted to move to the East
ok thanks
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Quoting LargoFl:
we have to hope that high in the gulf stays there


Forecasted to move to the East
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Ack! I accidently plussed a Taz Tirade.

OH NOES!

I shall now drown my woes in ALL-CAPPED CHILL PHILLS. :)
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Quoting kmanislander:
Patty is caught in the weakness between the two highs, hence no motion. However, the gap has closed up appreciably since this morning.

we have to hope that high in the gulf stays there
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18z Surface analysis.

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Patty is caught in the weakness between the two highs, hence no motion. However, the gap has closed up appreciably since this morning.

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Quoting Grothar:


I don't care what the NHC says, I still think it's a depression. I haven't declared it a TS yet.


I vow not to call her Patty until you do. ;)
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Quoting Tazmanian:




TAKE A CHILL PHILL AND GO TOO THE NHC SITE THEY HAVE IT HAS A TS


Poof!
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN INTENSIFYING REGION OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN FRESHENING WINDS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND HAWK CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED ON MOST OF KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$
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Quoting LargoFl:
Nam at 84 hours....................


Yeah this model shows what looks like a bridge between the Atlantic ridge and the High over the Eastern US/Gulf.
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NHC still saying Patty will be short lived..........BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...PATTY FORMS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST. PATTY IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WEAKENING LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting Tazmanian:



its now a TS


I don't care what the NHC says, I still think it's a depression. I haven't declared it a TS yet. :)
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Quoting Grothar:
Almost all models have TD16 moving into the Caribbean. I do not see any now that move it back NE anymore. Also, when the new models come out, I believe they will all show 98L moving NW then North either to the east over the islands on over the island moving North.



Its still too early to say if 98L will miss the Eastern Caribbean and where from PR to Bermuda and the Lesser Antilles should be watching. Also it will be interesting to see what happens to Patty if it makes it into the NW Caribbean.
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Nam at 84 hours....................
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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