Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

It sure looks like Patty is getting sheared apart pretty good this morning. Maybe a little swirl may make it to the western Caribbean, but doesn't look like much.

Quoting JeffMasters:


I unfortunately had little time to prepare my blog yesterday, due to the pressures of an early travel commitment (had to be on the road by 8 am.) My treatment of pre-Patty was quite rushed, and definitely one of my poorer efforts. Had the storm been more of a threat to populated areas, I would have made a stronger effort.

Jeff Masters

There we have it guys, now can we all just get along?

I'm going to take some pics today and post them under labels like "Patty threatens the Bahamas"... lol

Bye ya'll....

98L is a whole mess of convection, that is being sheared all over the place. There are a number of vortices milling around, with really no distinct coc. there seems to be a a consolidation of these vortices within what appears to be a large mid level circulation. although there is no closed low, i suspect one is trying to form under the heavy convection east of the islands. it would not be surprising if recon will fine a developing system when it goes in this afternoon. whatever happens some of the islands will experience tropical storm conditions the next few days.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Nah, just the standard jealousy displayed by by some of all that Dr. Masters has achieved. It always makes me laugh when someone with his CV is ridiculed by those who haven't a fraction of his education or experience--and on a forum he created that's attached to a blog he writes that's published on a website he started. I guess some people have overdeveloped senses of entitlement but no offsetting senses of irony... ;-)

Also, some seem to misunderstand the meaning of the term "no threat". Dr. Masters didn't say yesterday that 97L wouldn't develop; he said it would be no threat. Here's everything Dr. Masters wrote about 97L yesterday morning:

A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.

And here's what the NHC had to say about things just this morning:

PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER

I'd like someone who thinks Dr. Masters "blew" his forecast yesterday to please point out where they think he misspoke. (Yes, on Tuesday morning he stated that 97L was "little threat to develop", but at the time even the NHC gave the invest just a 10% chance. And as others have noted, "little" isn't the same as "no".)

Pot, meet Kettle..may I remind you of Joe Bastardi?

Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't see a NW movement with 98L, I see an almost due west movement for now.

I totaly agree with you plus 12Z plots show W-WNW movement now plus looking at steering maps it shows a more due W track through out most of the caribbean and the weakness is closing

Quoting CybrTeddy:
After 98L/Rafael, we need to watch the Caribbean, the ECMWF has been showing a storm developing there for the last few runs.


Interestingly enough, if we get Rafael in the next 24-48 hours, we will be over a week ahead of 2010 and 2011 with the 'R' name storm. IMO, one more storm after Rafael in October, then the possibility of an Ida like system in November. Can't rule out a hurricane coming from the Caribbean either in October or November, conditions will be favorable.

wow CybrTeddy thats on top of me OMG and if that becomes a TS it would be Sandy and if that happens it would be a head of 2011 when Sean was in early-mid Nov

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I totaly agree with you plus 12Z plots show W-WNW movement now plus looking at steering maps it shows a more due W track through out most of the caribbean and the weakness is closing



wow CybrTeddy thats on top of me OMG and if that becomes a TS it would be Sandy and if that happens it would be a head of 2011 when Sean was in early-mid Nov

No wunderkid, its not coming to the Cayman Islands :p

Lol Wunderkid... come on ;-) Thats unlikely.

Good morning

98L is being shorn like a sheep by the TUTT that runs from a ULL to the Ns all the way to a ULL in the central Caribbean. This makes it a prime candidate for another center reformation near 11 N and 58 W underneath the deep convection.



Let's see how the day plays out.

WV Loop of TUTT

Quoting ncstorm:


Pot, meet Kettle..may I remind you of Joe Bastardi?

You can leave me out of this....

:):))

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

98L is being shorn like a sheep by the TUTT that runs from a ULL to the Ns all the way to a ULL in the central Caribbean. This makes it a prime candidate for another center reformation near 11 N and 58 W underneath the deep convection.



Let's see how the day plays out.

WV Loop of TUTT

Good morning. You then think that the position of Best Track at 13.7N-61.8W is not going to be the prime center?

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

98L is being shorn like a sheep by the TUTT that runs from a ULL to the Ns all the way to a ULL in the central Caribbean. This makes it a prime candidate for another center reformation near 11 N and 58 W underneath the deep convection.



Let's see how the day plays out.

WV Loop of TUTT

Hmmmm...

do I need to know this ? LOL
Looks plausible though. Center is shown a long way N and W of where
it appears to be.
The HH's will be busy trying to pin this one down today.

South winds in B'dos, 1.42" of rain this morning.

be careful on the east coast beaches today folks.......COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
407 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO RIP CURRENTS AND
POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ATLANTIC COAST...

FLZ168-172-173-131000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.CF.S.0004.121012T0807Z-121015T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMFL.RP.S.0028.121012T0807Z-121015T0000Z/
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
407 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS WEEKEND...

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE BAY
SIDE AND OCEAN SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

* TIMING...RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES NOW
AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
OCCUR AT AROUND SUNRISE AND SUNSET.

* IMPACTS...RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES,
SOME STRONG. THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BARRIER
ISLANDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH POSSIBLE OVERWASH ONTO THE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE ROADS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS JETTIES AND
PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY
ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN
CALM AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM
THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A
STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

&&

$$

GREGORIA

Canadian Model shows Patty regenerating in the Western Caribbean.



ECMWF shows development around the 19th.



And GFS shows development around the 27th.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Canadian Model shows Patty regenerating in the Western Caribbean.



ECMWF shows development around the 19th.



And GFS shows development around the 27th.

HMMMM>>

post 666, eh ??

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Canadian Model shows Patty regenerating in the Western Caribbean.



ECMWF shows development around the 19th.



And GFS shows development around the 27th.

yes Gro was thinking that yesterday as well,we need to watch patty this coming week, could redevelop into yet another tropical something, wonder if she gets a new name?

Wonderful weather here this week for sure..........

TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY REMAINS EXPOSED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SOME
BANDING FEATURES FORMING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.
ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN BEFORE...A
BLEND OF THOSE VALUES STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS A MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN
THE AREA LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED DATA. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE WITH PATTY...
AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD ONLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
WINDS. PATTY WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
36H DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.

THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY
DUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION. LITTLE NET MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A
SHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE NHC TRACK IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT
IN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN 36H.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 25.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 25.7N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 25.6N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 24.5N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 23.5N 75.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Quoting Neapolitan:
Nah, just the standard jealousy displayed by by some of all that Dr. Masters has achieved. It always makes me laugh when someone with his CV is ridiculed by those who haven't a fraction of his education or experience--and on a forum he created that's attached to a blog he writes that's published on a website he started. I guess some people have overdeveloped senses of entitlement but no offsetting senses of irony... ;-)

Also, some seem to misunderstand the meaning of the term "no threat". Dr. Masters didn't say yesterday that 97L wouldn't develop; he said it would be no threat. Here's everything Dr. Masters wrote about 97L yesterday morning:

A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.

And here's what the NHC had to say about things just this morning:

PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER

I'd like someone who thinks Dr. Masters "blew" his forecast yesterday to please point out where they think he misspoke. (Yes, on Tuesday morning he stated that 97L was "little threat to develop", but at the time even the NHC gave the invest just a 10% chance. And as others have noted, "little" isn't the same as "no".)

Neo, I have nothing to say, Dr Masters admitted him self his pre-Patty forecast was " definitely one of my poorer efforts". I have no more to add.

Dr Masters, we all know forecasters make mistakes, weather forecasting is not an exact science, if it was then you wouldn't of taken the time to make this blog in the first place. A blog where we all learn, share information, talk about our local weather and disagree on forecasts that the NHC makes and yes even forecasts you make. It just goes to show Mother Nature will do what she wants to do and sometimes even though we think we know what she will do next, she might just do something else.

Good Night all.
Stay well, Stay safe, and enjoy the weather.

Quoting Relix:

No wunderkid, its not coming to the Cayman Islands :p

thats just the model and its a bit ways out anything can happen it its way like at 102-95hrs out then that would make sense to go nuts lol
I know that is what you are talking about
what I said "wow CybrTeddy thats on top of me OMG and if that becomes a TS it would be Sandy and if that happens it would be a head of 2011 when Sean was in early-mid Nov." also I have some new and sorry to break your heart but you my friend can't tell a hoot if that is coming here or not and there is a very simple explination for that if you can not figure that out then ask but you should know it

Quoting CaribBoy:
Lol Wunderkid... come on ;-) Thats unlikely.

on what??? (scratch head)
btw it looks like if 98L comes to you you will get rain and if 98L heads more W-WNW bound you will still get the rain yeppy for you you lucky man

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

98L is being shorn like a sheep by the TUTT that runs from a ULL to the Ns all the way to a ULL in the central Caribbean. This makes it a prime candidate for another center reformation near 11 N and 58 W underneath the deep convection.



Let's see how the day plays out.

WV Loop of TUTT

true that could be but also the UL trough is bottom half is moving slowly W-WNW and top half is going E-ENE slowly so its kinda giving way for 98L and also the more time 98L relocates S and E near to the convection that will cause the weakness to fully close and would cause a more dead due W track into the Caribbean which would be good for the E carib Islands and bad for the rest of the caribbean and bad for CaribBoy

GFS at 72 hours............

Coordinates: 13.7N 61.8W 12Z
Coordinates: 13.6N 60.4W 06Z

98L has been moving more WNW than NW in the past two runs. However, it should start resuming a more NW movement soon

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Canadian Model shows Patty regenerating in the Western Caribbean.



ECMWF shows development around the 19th.



And GFS shows development around the 27th.

#1 really bad news for me
#2 bad newas for me
#3 not soo bad new for me

Quoting Grothar:
Coordinates: 13.7N 61.8W 12Z
Coordinates: 13.6N 60.4W 06Z

98L has been moving more WNW than NW in the past two runs. However, it should start resuming a more NW movement soon

you hope
but by looking at steering its says W-WNW and weakness closing off W-WNW will be its movement now

Quoting ncstorm:


Pot, meet Kettle..may I remind you of Joe Bastardi?

One major glaring difference that so many of you seem to miss is that we don't go to Bastardi's site and use his own software to bash him. Are you not able to see that difference?

As I've said before, it's about manners. Dr. Masters is gracious enough to provide a forum where people can discuss weather and climate; kind enough to write lengthy and very educational blog entries for us to read; and intellectually honest enough to allow open dissent and even insult from people to whom he's vastly superior in education and experience. I've never understood why some can't be just as gracious in return.

Bad parenting, perhaps?

Well, whatever forms in the west Caribbean will definitely steer northeasterly as Florida's first dose of Autumn cool air is primed for next Friday!!!

Quoting Neapolitan:
One major glaring difference that so many of you seem to miss is that we don't go to Bastardi's site and use his own software to bash him. Are you not able to see that difference?

As I've said before, it's about manners. Dr. Masters is gracious enough to provide a forum where people can discuss weather and climate; kind enough to write lengthy and very educational blog entries for us to read; and intellectually honest enough to allow open dissent and even insult from people to whom he's vastly superior in education and experience. I've never understood why some can't be just as gracious in return.

Bad parenting, perhaps?

LOL..bad parenting?, this forum reminds me of a sandbox every time I visit here but as you just said, its about manners..just because you dont visit Bastardi site as you claim, you still bash/criticize him on a public forum and the man does know weather and has far better credentials than most people here on this blog..I have to go back and read Aussie's statement because i saw nothing malicious about what he wrote in regards to Dr. Masters, even the great one has come on here and said he didnt spend as much time as he would have liked in that post..

Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..bad parenting?, this forum reminds me of a sandbox every time I visit here but as you just said, its about manners..just because you dont visit Bastardi site as you claim, you still bash/criticize him on a public forum and the man does know weather and has far better credentials than most people here on this blog..I have to go back and read Aussie's statement because i saw nothing malicious about what he wrote in regards to Dr. Masters, even the great one has come on here and said he didnt spend as much time as he would have liked in that post..

Again, you misread or misinterpreted my comment; that seems to be a habit with some here. I didn't say I don't visit Bastardi's site; I said I don't go there and insult him. And the reason why I don't is that it's just bad manners to do so.