98L may develop this weekend; 97L no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:57 AM GMT on October 11, 2012

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A tropical wave located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. The disturbance has a modest amount of spin and a large amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops and Barbados radar. The thunderstorms have shown more organization this morning, but there is no obvious surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. This morning's ASCAT pass showed top winds of 30 - 35 mph near 15°N, 55°W. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C. With wind shear expected to diminish on Saturday to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, 98L may be able to develop into a tropical cyclone this weekend. The disturbance has a high amount of support for development among the reliable computer models. The NOGAPS model predicts 98L will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Sunday, about 400 hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. The GFS model predicts 98L will develop on Saturday, when the center will be very close to the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The ECMWF model predicts a more westerly path for 98L into the southeast Bahama Islands, with development delayed until Monday. The models are unified in forecasting that 98L will turn to the north by Monday and be drawn into a trough of low pressure. It does not appear that 98L will be a threat to the U.S. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit 98L on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Invest 97L east of the Bahamas
A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.

Jeff Masters

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271. wxmod
10:53 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes true but, with cheap prices for their goods, no one will stop buying the goods untill a worldwide cry goes out for them to stop their pollution..and we all know That wont happen anytime soon.


Then we're all going to die pretty soon, and not of ripe old age. Quit buying from China, or we're dead. It's just that simple.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
270. kwgirl
7:37 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
There is definitely such a thing as "dry" snow, as well as "wet" snow. The "average" snow-to-liquid-water equivalent is about 10:1 (that is, 10" of "average" snow if melted would yield 1" of water). Wet snows can have ratios as low as 4:1 or 5:1. while dry snows can on occasion go as high as 30:1. (FWIW, snow skiers love dry, loosely-packed powder.)
Interesting! How does this happen? Does the relative humidity in the air along with air temperature create the different types of snow?
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
269. CaribBoy
6:19 PM GMT on October 11, 2012


EURO 48HR
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6170
268. GeoffreyWPB
6:10 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Sorry if this has been posted already...
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT THU 11 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--
A. 12/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0116A CYCLONE
C. 12/1200Z
D. 24.8N 74.0W
E. 12/1530Z TO 12/1830
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
C. 12/1700Z C. 13/0500Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W D. 17.0N 64.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z E. 13/1530Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STILL A THREAT.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
267. FtMyersgal
6:09 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
ask me why i moved to florida LOL.................


That's my reason too Largo. Used to live in Milwaukee Wisconsin. Best brats in the world, but that never made up for the snow and cold :)
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
266. LostTomorrows
6:07 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Interesting: the ATCF just deleted the file for 98L, then placed it back up less than a minute later with only a single line. It could mean a sloppy renumber is imminent, or the system is just suffering another facet of sometimes-glitchy 2012:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210111755
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012101112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


I go with the glitch, although 98L has been growing more and more organized throughout the past 36 hours. A renumber tonight is plausible, but this year is just full of glitchiness and poor calls.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
265. islander101010
6:07 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
cmcc does look interesting 7544
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4594
264. JLPR2
6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting 12george1:

Short version of Iris 95?


Looks possible, tough Iris moved almost completely north and only brushed the waters of the Caribbean, I don't think 98L will move completely north, it should retain some westward motion.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8698
263. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
262. LostTomorrows
6:05 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
I am watching each year, how the tropical systems react to the warming globe,wondering IF..the hurricanes will get stronger and meaner as the temps go up..i sure hope not


Nah, it's hrder for them to get stronger because everything else is too... not only the environmental ingredients that combine to promote strengthening of a storm, but also those that destroy it. That's why storms aren't getting as strong as they used to be, but they are getting more intense. That's why that IKE scale is much more forward thinking than this aged Saffir-Simpson one. Usually a storm can't mix its winds to the surface before something from the environment gets to it, but it can maintain and further solidify its structure in the meantime; plump itself up. Such was the case with Isaac, and with Irene.

I don't know, really, but that is my thought. We'll be seeing less categor 4/5 storms, and more intense monsoonal types. Even Debby had the rains characteristic of a storm stronger than a moderate TS.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
261. bigwes6844
6:03 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting 7544:
ha look what the cmc does with td 16 interesting

Link
did youu see how huge 98L got before being picked up?
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2612
260. 12george1
6:02 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like the chances of 98L entering the Eastern Caribbean are increasing.


Short version of Iris 95?
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
259. LargoFl
5:59 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
E NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.9N 73.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 72.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
258. BahaHurican
5:59 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Afternoon all... breezes are freshening here in Nassau this afternoon, which to me suggests 97L may be deepening.

It seems a lot more likely to me now than it did a couple days ago that we'll get a TC out of 97L, and that's mainly because I'm thinking it will drift far enough south to get into the "zone" for increased development potential. The models mostly seem to be forecasting a pretty logical outcome, especially in the short term.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22139
257. LostTomorrows
5:58 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
The way the NHC is handling 97L/TD16 is making me oddly angry. The numbers are there, and have been since before they even classified the low a TD, for it to be identified as Patty. It seems they deliberately don't want any more named storms to form or something absurd like that.

If you can name Jose or Helene, you can name this one.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
256. JLPR2
5:58 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Looks like the chances of 98L entering the Eastern Caribbean are increasing.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8698
255. LargoFl
5:58 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Washington Post had a nice write-up about the NOAA report today. The bottom line, as both scientists and a growing number of laypeople are realizing: the overall increasing warming of the past decades is having a detrimental effect on our weather--and it's likely going to get far worse.
I am watching each year, how the tropical systems react to the warming globe,wondering IF..the hurricanes will get stronger and meaner as the temps go up..i sure hope not
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
254. hydrus
5:58 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21239
253. Neapolitan
5:58 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Interesting: the ATCF just deleted the file for 98L, then placed it back up less than a minute later with only a single line. It could mean a sloppy renumber is imminent, or the system is just suffering another facet of sometimes-glitchy 2012:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210111755
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012101112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
252. Neapolitan
5:55 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Arctic summer wind shift could affect sea ice loss and U.S./European weather, says NOAA-led study
October 10, 2012


Image from the North Pole webcam shows (July 27, 2010) ponds created by the summer sea ice melt.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Changes in summer Arctic wind patterns contribute not only to an unprecedented loss of Arctic sea ice, but could also bring about shifts in North American and European weather, according to a new NOAA-led study published today in Geophysical Research Letters.

A research team led by James Overland, Ph.D., of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, Wash., examined the wind patterns in the subarctic in the early summer between 2007 and 2012 as compared to the average for 1981 to 2010. They discovered that the previously normal west-to-east flowing upper-level winds have been replaced by a more north-south undulating, or wave-like pattern. This new wind pattern transports warmer air into the Arctic and pushes Arctic air farther south, and may influence the likelihood of persistent weather conditions in the mid-latitudes.

“Our research reveals a change in the summer Arctic wind pattern over the past six years. This shift demonstrates a physical connection between reduced Arctic sea ice in the summer, loss of Greenland ice, and potentially, weather in North American and Europe,” said Overland, a NOAA research oceanographer.  

...
The Washington Post had a nice write-up about the NOAA report today. The bottom line, as both scientists and a growing number of laypeople are realizing: the overall increasing warming of the past decades is having a detrimental effect on our weather--and it's likely going to get far worse.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
251. LargoFl
5:53 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Good question Largo. I think 98L will be traveling further west for a while. It's too far south to get picked up and head north... for now
..yes we must keep a good eye on 98
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
250. LargoFl
5:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
ask me why i moved to florida LOL.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
249. FtMyersgal
5:52 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
With all the winds blowing to the southeast i wonder why..98 will go northward?.................


Good question Largo. I think 98L will be traveling further west for a while. It's too far south to get picked up and head north... for now
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
248. LargoFl
5:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
There is definitely such a thing as "dry" snow, as well as "wet" snow. The "average" snow-to-liquid-water equivalent is about 10:1 (that is, 10" of "average" snow if melted would yield 1" of water). Wet snows can have ratios as low as 4:1 or 5:1. while dry snows can on occasion go as high as 30:1. (FWIW, snow skiers love dry, loosely-packed powder.)
yes most times if the upper air is warmer the snow will come down hard and heavy, melting quickly, slushy almost, real cold upstairs and it comes down hard and fluffy..kinda early for a snow storm though, a hard winter might be coming for you northern folks huh..............i remember..a very Hot summer..comes a real cold winter most times.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
247. kmanislander
5:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting SLU:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111744
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



The NHC still waiting for 98L to " follow the models "
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246. LargoFl
5:48 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
245. Neapolitan
5:48 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:
Is there such a thing as dry snow? I know some snows are heavier than others, but I would classify it as all wet. Though I have lived my life in the tropics, I think I have seen snow 4 times in my life in person.
There is definitely such a thing as "dry" snow, as well as "wet" snow. The "average" snow-to-liquid-water equivalent is about 10:1 (that is, 10" of "average" snow if melted would yield 1" of water). Wet snows can have ratios as low as 4:1 or 5:1. while dry snows can on occasion go as high as 30:1. (FWIW, snow skiers love dry, loosely-packed powder.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
244. LargoFl
5:47 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
243. SLU
5:47 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting stoormfury:
if recon had gone into td 16 ,they would have found a ts


Yes, provided they close off the center but the NHC keeps it at 50% like they did with Tomas when it was obviously strenghening ....
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5163
242. SLU
5:46 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111744
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5163
241. stoormfury
5:45 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
if recon had gone into td 16 ,they would have found a ts
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2687
240. Tropicsweatherpr
5:44 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Up to 40% for 97E.

TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
239. CaicosRetiredSailor
5:44 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6037
238. kwgirl
5:43 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wet snow to my nw

Is there such a thing as dry snow? I know some snows are heavier than others, but I would classify it as all wet. Though I have lived my life in the tropics, I think I have seen snow 4 times in my life in person.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
237. JLPR2
5:43 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Hmm, 16 has the looks of a tropical storm, c'mon 16!



Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8698
236. LargoFl
5:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY. THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
REPORTS OF LOCAL FLOODING OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED
EVENTS ARE APPRECIATED.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
235. LargoFl
5:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
gee if this was July I'd be checking my supplies........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
234. Tropicsweatherpr
5:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
112 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012

PRC003-011-081-083-093-099-131-112015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0377.121011T1712Z-121011T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
AGUADA PR-
112 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MARICAO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS AND
AGUADA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 110 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 415 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6715 1839 6714 1840 6712 1830 6683
1816 6694 1837 6724 1840 6719 1841 6716

$$

23
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
233. LargoFl
5:39 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
232. LargoFl
5:37 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
With all the winds blowing to the southeast i wonder why..98 will go northward?.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
231. LargoFl
5:34 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
230. FtMyersgal
5:34 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING MORE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO WISCONSIN SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER
NORTHEAST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP AREAS A LITTLE
WARMER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

WIZ060-066-071-072-120000-
/O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0007.121012T0600Z-121012T1200Z/
OZAUKEE-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT WASHINGTON...MILWAUKEE...RACINE...
KENOSHA
1056 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN MAY STAY FROST FREE.

* TEMPERATURE...SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION WILL BE AT RISK. TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$




Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
229. SLU
5:33 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
I wonder what the NHC will do at 5pm if the T numbers for TD 16 increase to T3.5.

And 98L should be upgraded to code red at about 70% with mention made about the possible formation of a TD within 48 hrs.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5163
228. 7544
5:32 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
ha look what the cmc does with td 16 interesting

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
227. Civicane49
5:29 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
226. LargoFl
5:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1101 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-121515-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
1101 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

FREEZE WATCH.

WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
225. stormwatcherCI
5:27 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


Quite often when the NHC says the motion is a particular direction that appears to include the "forecasted" direction from the models. The track for 98l as observed has really been W for a long time now
Once again, thank you. I thought it was strange that they keep saying wnw.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
224. LargoFl
5:26 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
223. LargoFl
5:24 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
RGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1156 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

MAZ002>005-008>012-026-NHZ011-012-015-120000-
/O.CON.KBOX.FZ.A.0005.121013T0400Z-121013T1400Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...CHESTER FIELD...
BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD.. .MILFORD...
WORCESTER...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER.. .NASHUA...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
1156 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARDS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* TIMING...AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD KILL CROPS AND
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
222. LargoFl
5:23 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Kinda early in the season for freeze warnings isnt it?..might turn out to be a very cold winter............................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-112200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.A.0007.121013T0600Z-121013T1300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
346 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD KILL CROPS AND
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
221. stormchaser19
5:21 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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