Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting FtMyersgal:


Good question Largo. I think 98L will be traveling further west for a while. It's too far south to get picked up and head north... for now

..yes we must keep a good eye on 98

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Arctic summer wind shift could affect sea ice loss and U.S./European weather, says NOAA-led study
October 10, 2012


Image from the North Pole webcam shows (July 27, 2010) ponds created by the summer sea ice melt.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Changes in summer Arctic wind patterns contribute not only to an unprecedented loss of Arctic sea ice, but could also bring about shifts in North American and European weather, according to a new NOAA-led study published today in Geophysical Research Letters.

A research team led by James Overland, Ph.D., of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, Wash., examined the wind patterns in the subarctic in the early summer between 2007 and 2012 as compared to the average for 1981 to 2010. They discovered that the previously normal west-to-east flowing upper-level winds have been replaced by a more north-south undulating, or wave-like pattern. This new wind pattern transports warmer air into the Arctic and pushes Arctic air farther south, and may influence the likelihood of persistent weather conditions in the mid-latitudes.

“Our research reveals a change in the summer Arctic wind pattern over the past six years. This shift demonstrates a physical connection between reduced Arctic sea ice in the summer, loss of Greenland ice, and potentially, weather in North American and Europe,” said Overland, a NOAA research oceanographer.  

...

The Washington Post had a nice write-up about the NOAA report today. The bottom line, as both scientists and a growing number of laypeople are realizing: the overall increasing warming of the past decades is having a detrimental effect on our weather--and it's likely going to get far worse.

Interesting: the ATCF just deleted the file for 98L, then placed it back up less than a minute later with only a single line. It could mean a sloppy renumber is imminent, or the system is just suffering another facet of sometimes-glitchy 2012:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210111755
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012101112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Quoting Neapolitan:
The Washington Post had a nice write-up about the NOAA report today. The bottom line, as both scientists and a growing number of laypeople are realizing: the overall increasing warming of the past decades is having a detrimental effect on our weather--and it's likely going to get far worse.

I am watching each year, how the tropical systems react to the warming globe,wondering IF..the hurricanes will get stronger and meaner as the temps go up..i sure hope not

Looks like the chances of 98L entering the Eastern Caribbean are increasing.

The way the NHC is handling 97L/TD16 is making me oddly angry. The numbers are there, and have been since before they even classified the low a TD, for it to be identified as Patty. It seems they deliberately don't want any more named storms to form or something absurd like that.

If you can name Jose or Helene, you can name this one.

Afternoon all... breezes are freshening here in Nassau this afternoon, which to me suggests 97L may be deepening.

It seems a lot more likely to me now than it did a couple days ago that we'll get a TC out of 97L, and that's mainly because I'm thinking it will drift far enough south to get into the "zone" for increased development potential. The models mostly seem to be forecasting a pretty logical outcome, especially in the short term.

E NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.9N 73.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 72.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Quoting JLPR2:
Looks like the chances of 98L entering the Eastern Caribbean are increasing.

Short version of Iris 95?

Quoting 7544:
ha look what the cmc does with td 16 interesting

Link

did youu see how huge 98L got before being picked up?

Quoting LargoFl:
I am watching each year, how the tropical systems react to the warming globe,wondering IF..the hurricanes will get stronger and meaner as the temps go up..i sure hope not

Nah, it's hrder for them to get stronger because everything else is too... not only the environmental ingredients that combine to promote strengthening of a storm, but also those that destroy it. That's why storms aren't getting as strong as they used to be, but they are getting more intense. That's why that IKE scale is much more forward thinking than this aged Saffir-Simpson one. Usually a storm can't mix its winds to the surface before something from the environment gets to it, but it can maintain and further solidify its structure in the meantime; plump itself up. Such was the case with Isaac, and with Irene.

I don't know, really, but that is my thought. We'll be seeing less categor 4/5 storms, and more intense monsoonal types. Even Debby had the rains characteristic of a storm stronger than a moderate TS.

Quoting 12george1:

Short version of Iris 95?

Looks possible, tough Iris moved almost completely north and only brushed the waters of the Caribbean, I don't think 98L will move completely north, it should retain some westward motion.

cmcc does look interesting 7544

Quoting Neapolitan:
Interesting: the ATCF just deleted the file for 98L, then placed it back up less than a minute later with only a single line. It could mean a sloppy renumber is imminent, or the system is just suffering another facet of sometimes-glitchy 2012:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210111755
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012101112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

I go with the glitch, although 98L has been growing more and more organized throughout the past 36 hours. A renumber tonight is plausible, but this year is just full of glitchiness and poor calls.

Quoting LargoFl:
ask me why i moved to florida LOL.................

That's my reason too Largo. Used to live in Milwaukee Wisconsin. Best brats in the world, but that never made up for the snow and cold :)

Sorry if this has been posted already...
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT THU 11 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--
A. 12/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0116A CYCLONE
C. 12/1200Z
D. 24.8N 74.0W
E. 12/1530Z TO 12/1830
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
C. 12/1700Z C. 13/0500Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W D. 17.0N 64.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z E. 13/1530Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STILL A THREAT.

EURO 48HR

Quoting Neapolitan:
There is definitely such a thing as "dry" snow, as well as "wet" snow. The "average" snow-to-liquid-water equivalent is about 10:1 (that is, 10" of "average" snow if melted would yield 1" of water). Wet snows can have ratios as low as 4:1 or 5:1. while dry snows can on occasion go as high as 30:1. (FWIW, snow skiers love dry, loosely-packed powder.)

Interesting! How does this happen? Does the relative humidity in the air along with air temperature create the different types of snow?

Quoting LargoFl:
..yes true but, with cheap prices for their goods, no one will stop buying the goods untill a worldwide cry goes out for them to stop their pollution..and we all know That wont happen anytime soon.

Then we're all going to die pretty soon, and not of ripe old age. Quit buying from China, or we're dead. It's just that simple.