98L may develop early next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2012

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A tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance has a modest amount of spin and a large amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops, but there is no sign of a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C. With wind shear expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Wednesday night though Friday, any development the next few days should be slow. The shear is due to an upper-level trough of low pressure centered a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Once 98L passes beyond the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, the shearing winds of the trough will diminish to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. Most of the models predict that 98L will show increasing development beginning on Saturday. The NOGAPS model has 98L developing into a tropical depression on Monday, a few hundred miles northeast of the southeastern Bahama Islands. The GFS model is much slower with the system, predicting it will develop into a tropical depression on Monday, a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Moisture from 98L should affect the Lesser Antilles Islands on Thursday and Friday, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Friday and Saturday. It is uncertain if heavy rains from 98L will affect the Dominican Republic early next week; the storm may stay too far to the northeast. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Friday morning. The long range fate of 98L is uncertain; the ECMWF model shows 98L becoming absorbed by a cold front and bringing heavy rains to Canada and New England on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, while the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that 98L will stay out to sea for at least the next week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The 1st 3D movie was in 1915. - Source


Then I must have seen that one, too!
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Quoting VR46L:




The blob lat and long on map about 25N and 70W I think




From Toprical Weather Discussion on the NHC page:

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W.
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12z CMC animation.

Link
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Quoting Grothar:


That image reminded me of the first 3D movie I ever saw. It was "The House of Wax" It had to be the very early 50's. I remember everybody feeling like they were seasick when the movie ended. Although I remember my parents saying they saw a 3D movie when they were young, which would have been in the 1920's.


The 1st 3D movie was in 1915. - Source
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Latest natural colour Imagery from RAMMB of 98L



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Quoting biff4ugo:
Very interesting how it breaks all of the stars of similar color into flat planes below the M object, but adds interest by tilting them.
It would be really cool if there was a Doppler shift or distance map of them to provide depth rather than just color.
Overall, it is a great animation that brings some great dark matter objects forward that your brain would send to the back in a 2D object.


That image reminded me of the first 3D movie I ever saw. It was "The House of Wax" It had to be the very early 50's. I remember everybody feeling like they were seasick when the movie ended. Although I remember my parents saying they saw a 3D movie when they were young, which would have been in the 1920's.
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12z GFS paints a very wet scenario for PR/VI and Leewards.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15668
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Very interesting how it breaks all of the stars of similar color into flat planes below the M object, but adds interest by tilting them.
It would be really cool if there was a Doppler shift or distance map of them to provide depth rather than just color.
Overall, it is a great animation that brings some great dark matter objects forward that your brain would send to the back in a 2D object.
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Thanks Dr. Masters. Could be a good sized severe weather event Friday and Saturday. I still think 98L has a chance to develop, the problem is where it goes.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting Msdrown:



VR, thanks. It looks like old 97L is in a collision course with current 98L.


Na I dont think so, ex 97L wants to attach to the front to its north in my opinion but 98L seems to just want to go west at the moment ...I know its supposed to go North but I dont think its in a hurry to go north
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Quoting VR46L:




The blob lat and long on map about 25N and 70W I think






VR, thanks. It looks like old 97L is in a collision course with current 98L.
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MMMMM Interesting tendency for PR

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Quoting Msdrown:
Anybody, where is the remnants of 97L at now?? Please give a map or at least a lat/long.


The blob lat and long on map about 25N and 70W I think



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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I assumed that had to be a 3d animation because the scale of a star nursery is so huge a physical camera would have had to travel light years to record that much movement.
Correct. The photographer says the far left and far right extents are separated by about 24 degrees, and that to show a parallax of one degree from Earth's distance, one would have to move 50 light years, meaning that you'd have to move 1,200 light years from earth to actually see the object rotate as it does in the animation.

The object, by the way, is about 100 light years across. As I said, massive. ;-)
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Maybe include the images site Keep.

Suspense is not created with single un captioned image.

www.solarham.net

Updated 10/10/2012 @ 13:50 UTC

Solar Update

Solar activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with two M-Class flares detected off the southeast limb. New Sunspot 1589 located in the northeast quadrant is the largest region on the visible disk today. The source of the M-Class events off the southeast limb is now rotating into view. There will remain a chance for an isolated M-Class event today.

Be sure to check out this page on SolarHam Facebook and click the "Like" button. You will get the latest updates and more in your news feed.


Active Sunspot Regions - 2 Day Movie (10/10/2012)

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Quoting LargoFl:
Anyone know IF that jerk who is going to free fall from 23 miles up in the sky is actually going to do it today or not?......imagine what happens to him..falling about 600 miles an hour..when that parachute opens?...hope he doesnt land on my roof..hate mopping up goo off my roof
He would slow down gradually when he encounters denser air. To a speed of 120 to 160mph. This has been done before by a man named Kitinger.
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98 seems about 52w 10n
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I'm surprised the SPC has such low severe probabilities for Friday. It may end up being a MDT risk for tornadoes (15% probs.)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Some might be interested to know this is not an actual 3D image of IC 1396--a massive gas cloud 2000 light years away in the constellation Cepheus--but an animation created by a Finnish astrophotographer named J-P Metsavainio. But it's a cool image, anyway...


I assumed that had to be a 3d animation because the scale of a star nursery is so huge a physical camera would have had to travel light years to record that much movement. But it's still totally awesome. :)
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Anybody, where is the remnants of 97L at now?? Please give a map or at least a lat/long.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Anyone know IF that jerk who is going to free fall from 23 miles up in the sky is actually going to do it today or not?......imagine what happens to him..falling about 600 miles an hour..when that parachute opens?...hope he doesnt land on my roof..hate mopping up goo off my roof


It was delayed until thurs because of wind conditions.
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I posted this

link

for the night shift last night. Thought I'd share it with the day shift.
It's a fascinating heat exchanger with a VERY familiar shape and function. :)
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My thoughts old 97L never looked better. Does look like shear is going to beat up on 98L for awhile. I think the southern tracks for 98L are the better solution.
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Anyone know IF that jerk who is going to free fall from 23 miles up in the sky is actually going to do it today or not?......imagine what happens to him..falling about 600 miles an hour..when that parachute opens?...hope he doesnt land on my roof..hate mopping up goo off my roof
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50700
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50700
Quoting GeorgiaStormz (#23):
Some might be interested to know this is not an actual 3D image of IC 1396--a massive gas cloud 2000 light years away in the constellation Cepheus--but an animation created by a Finnish astrophotographer named J-P Metsavainio. But it's a cool image, anyway...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50700
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Thanks Dr. Masters.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Incredible.
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Cool post, GeorgiaStormz, looks almost 3D! (Post #23).
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May have to put 97l back up,looks like it may miss the pull to the Northeast.
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12z Surface Analysis made by TAFB.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
This thing will be lucky to miss South America at this rate. The global models look like they may be too far north with this system. Disorganized due to shear, as expected in October in an semi-El Nino year.


I agree with you its far further south than expected and to be honest I cant see anything to steer it north at the moment


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Thanks for the new blog Doc. Looks like the CV season is winding down

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Auroras over North America:
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Quoting LemieT:
Thanks Dr. M. As it stands now, a little less shear and we could have been dealing with Tomas pt.2. It will be interesting to see what happens with 98L in the next 60 hours. Expecting some nice rain here in Barbados. :-)


Yeah. If this is a slow mover it could be quite a rain event for you. Hopefully not the floods and mudslides that Tomas had. I'm scheduled to be out in the Domincan in 11 days so I will be keeping an eye on this one closely.
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Thanks Doc!
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Quoting 7544:
still keeping one eye on ex 97l as its moving southward today might try to do a loop de loop back to bahammas imo

98l may go futher west with the high building back in as the models above show a split

is the mojo here yet good day all
You're probably right, models are underestimating the strength of the Atlantic Ridge as they did with Ernesto and Isaac.
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First mission for 98L on Friday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 10 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR 12/1800Z AT 17.0N 61.0W.
BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 13/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15668
This thing will be lucky to miss South America at this rate. The global models look like they may be too far north with this system. Disorganized due to shear, as expected in October in an semi-El Nino year.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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