98L may develop early next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2012

Share this Blog
34
+

A tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance has a modest amount of spin and a large amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops, but there is no sign of a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C. With wind shear expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Wednesday night though Friday, any development the next few days should be slow. The shear is due to an upper-level trough of low pressure centered a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Once 98L passes beyond the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, the shearing winds of the trough will diminish to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. Most of the models predict that 98L will show increasing development beginning on Saturday. The NOGAPS model has 98L developing into a tropical depression on Monday, a few hundred miles northeast of the southeastern Bahama Islands. The GFS model is much slower with the system, predicting it will develop into a tropical depression on Monday, a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Moisture from 98L should affect the Lesser Antilles Islands on Thursday and Friday, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Friday and Saturday. It is uncertain if heavy rains from 98L will affect the Dominican Republic early next week; the storm may stay too far to the northeast. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Friday morning. The long range fate of 98L is uncertain; the ECMWF model shows 98L becoming absorbed by a cold front and bringing heavy rains to Canada and New England on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, while the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that 98L will stay out to sea for at least the next week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 515 - 465

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

515. hydrus
2:40 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
This looks like a potent system,and all the models are pickin it up.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
514. biff4ugo
12:04 PM GMT on October 11, 2012
I completely agree. The Bahama blob is amazingly persistent and is worth a stronger designation.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1590
513. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:57 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

That doesn't necessarily imply a moderate risk though. That could be including more areas in a upgrade to 30%, which is still in the slight risk category. That could also mean upping the percentages for winds, hail, and tornado potentials on the subsequent SVR T-Storm/Tornado watches that may be issued as needed. That could also mean including a hatched area of winds greater that 65 knots or hail greater than 2" for any convective outlook issued that day. However, that does not necessarily mean upgrading to a moderate risk.

It could. However, considering Kerr wrote it, I wouldn't bet on it.

Forecaster Kerr = SPC's Forecast Stewart.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
512. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:57 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
511. wxchaser97
11:55 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Not necessarily. I don't see that wording in there at all.

Well if the severe risk is possibly higher than a slight risk, which is what they're saying, then it would be upgraded to a MDT risk.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
510. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:54 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
The NHC is not going to waste a name or a number (lol)....they think the storm is not going to last long.... BUT that should not matter.
Why are they doing this?

WHY YOU DON'T ISSUE ADVISORIES???? Who has that pic by the way?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
509. wxchaser97
11:53 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
NHC remains consistantly inconsistant when it comes to designating systems....same as it ever was.

Well they did name Oscar and that was a stretch. Invest 97L is likely a depression and should/hopefully be classified at 11am.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
507. wxchaser97
11:50 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

That doesn't necessarily imply a moderate risk though. That could be including more areas in a upgrade to 30%, which is still in the slight risk category.

It is implying that an upgrade to a MDT risk is possible but not 100% likely. At least that is how I viewed it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
505. SLU
11:45 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Man, the NHC wins the award for the world's most conservative meteorological organisation.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE
LOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
BEFORE THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5355
504. PensacolaDoug
11:44 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
NHC remains consistantly inconsistant when it comes to designating systems....same as it ever was.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
503. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:43 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Where does it specifically say the SPC is considering an upgrade to a moderate risk, Cody?

It is strongly implied.

"GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM SECTOR DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MAY ULTIMATELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
502. GeoffreyWPB
11:42 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
98L...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11403
501. ncstorm
11:41 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Good Morning!

Henry Margusity Fan Club
To top it off, we may have another major severe weather outbreak next week just east of where it happens Saturday.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16022
499. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:38 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
850 millibar winds will be from the southeast on Friday and from the southwest on Saturday, which poses the question of whether or not there will even be enough instability for an outbreak on the latter day, yet the Storm Prediction Center is considering upgrading to a MDT risk.

We'll see how well that goes. If the models continue to show southwest winds on Saturday...there will be a lot of upset chasers come that evening.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
498. wxchaser97
11:35 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
97L remains at 50% but the NHC said it could form into a TD, 98L also remains at 50%.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
497. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:34 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Both remain at 50%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE
LOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
BEFORE THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
496. SLU
11:33 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
The center of 98L seems to have reformed near 11n 57.5w
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5355
495. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:32 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
97E in the East Pacific remains at 30%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
494. SFLWeatherman
11:29 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
65 in WPB For me!!!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4928
493. wxchaser97
11:27 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whether or not the NHC wants to issue advisories on this is irrelevant, this IS a tropical depression. There is organized, deep convection that has persisted atop a well-defined, closed center of circulation that is NOT attached to a frontal zone. And to top it off, winds are 30 knots. SAB is at T2.0/30 knots.


Well then, I think chances should be brought up into the high category at 8am. I don't know if the NHC will actually classify it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
492. GeoffreyWPB
11:21 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11403
491. aislinnpaps
11:19 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
From the forties to back to the sixties in the morning this week. Enjoyed the cooler temps while they lasted. Everyone have a great Thursday!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3159
490. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:19 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Whether or not the NHC wants to issue advisories on this is irrelevant, this IS a tropical depression. There is organized, deep convection that has persisted atop a well-defined, closed center of circulation that is NOT attached to a frontal zone. And to top it off, winds are 30 knots. SAB is at T2.0/30 knots.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
489. SLU
11:12 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Looks like we'll be having another unnamed storm declared after the season.....
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5355
488. wxchaser97
11:09 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Is this 97L, I think it is but I'm just checking? It has 30kt winds and a decent circulation.

If so I think it just needs some more convection over the center, but time is running out.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
487. Tropicsweatherpr
10:54 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Good morning.

Here is the discussion made by Rob of Crownweather regarding 98L.

Invest 98L Located Just East Of The Windward Islands & Barbados:
Of more concern is Invest 98L which is located about 400 miles to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is fairly robust and continues to become better organized. Additionally, tropical storm force winds are occurring on the north side of the circulation and this system has a fairly good chance of becoming a tropical storm either today or at the latest on Friday. So, the Canadian model may have been on something a couple of days ago and I should have given it more weight.

Invest 98L is expected to track very near Barbados later this afternoon or this evening and then across the Windward Islands late tonight into Friday morning. Residents and vacationers on Barbados and in the Windward Islands should be prepared for tropical storm conditions with wind gusts to 50 mph, heavy rainfall and very rough seas from this afternoon through tonight and into Friday. Since this is a pretty large system, much of the Leeward Islands will also be affected by strong winds of up to 40 to 50 mph, heavy rainfall and very rough seas from this afternoon right into Friday.

Once Invest 98L is in the eastern Caribbean on Friday it is expected to turn sharply northwestward and track across while intensifying to a moderate to strong tropical storm. I think a track right over Puerto Rico seems plausible on Saturday with tropical storm conditions likely across Puerto Rico and the US/British Virgin Island on Friday night through Saturday.

Once this system is past Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands it is forecast to turn north and north-northeastward and potentially intensify into a hurricane and possibly impact Bermuda right around Tuesday.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14553
486. JrWeathermanFL
10:49 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Good Morning Everyone.
97L looks like its a TD
98L is getting better organized
I hope Rafael is a good storm. Awesome name. He's a ninja turtle for gosh sakes.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2511
485. Barefootontherocks
10:47 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Could be some severe tonight through Saturday. SPC has delineated slight risk areas for today and tomorrow.
Convective Outlooks issued today.

SPC has extended the Saturday slight risk SWward to include DFW metro.

Click image for complete outlook text and probabilities for Saturday, as seen today.


SPC's Forecaster Kerr has been on this system since it reflected low potential, and I been impressed with the outlooks detailing the risk as this CA low has progressed into the potential threat it now is. Excerpt from Forecaster Kerr's Day 3 (Saturday) discussion from early this morning.

REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW...GENERALLY EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS FEATURE...AND SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM 50-70
KT...BENEATH A 70+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR /PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND 1.5+ INCHES/...WITH 60F+
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING PERHAPS CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM SECTOR DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MAY ULTIMATELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. CONDITIONS MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS POTENTIAL STILL APPEAR MOST PROBABLE TO EVOLVE
FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION THAT MAY OCCUR...DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION WHICH MAY SLOW
OR INHIBIT INSOLATION. COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
VARIABILITY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. BUT A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND EVENT
APPEARS A POSSIBILITY. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

..KERR.. 10/11/2012
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18936
484. MAweatherboy1
10:41 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Good morning. 98L organized quite a bit overnight. It's still broad but more consolidated than at any point in its life so far:



I still don't think the NHC will classify 97L... it probably deserves it but they will be very hesitant.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7929
483. wxchaser97
10:40 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Good morning everyone, I see 97L and 98L are both up to 50%.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
482. HuracandelCaribe
9:54 AM GMT on October 11, 2012

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
481. HuracandelCaribe
9:53 AM GMT on October 11, 2012

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
480. LargoFl
9:27 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40854
479. LargoFl
9:24 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40854
478. Civicane49
8:58 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
High southwesterly wind shear is shifting the thunderstorm activity to the northeast of the exposed center.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
477. Civicane49
8:36 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
The center appears to be exposed just west of the deep thunderstorm activity.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
476. KoritheMan
8:24 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
I suppose you could make the case that convection isn't present over the center of the storm, thus it is not a tropical depression. However, convection was present over the center (or certainly very close), prior to the surface circulation becoming fully exposed. Furthermore, nowhere in the definition of a tropical cyclone does the NHC mention convection has to present directly over the center...

So, this still looks like a TD to me; a weak one for sure, but a TD nonetheless.


No classification, most likely. No renumber on ATCF as of yet, and they'd normally do one by now. Granted, there's nothing preventing Stewart from making the decision in the next thirty minutes, but it's looking dismal.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21061
475. OracleDeAtlantis
8:21 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
This looks like the closest we've seen convection firing near the center. This is a TD.

Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
474. TomTaylor
8:15 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Center seems exposed to the west of the convection in recent satellite frames.

Get the feeling that may forgo an upgrade.
I suppose you could make the case that convection isn't present over the center of the storm, thus it is not a tropical depression. However, convection was present over the center (or certainly very close), prior to the surface circulation becoming fully exposed. Furthermore, nowhere in the definition of a tropical cyclone does the NHC mention convection has to present directly over the center...

So, this still looks like a TD to me; a weak one for sure, but a TD nonetheless.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
473. KoritheMan
8:10 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It sure looks like it to me. The convergence is pitiful, but it's actually stacked quite well, considering.

New convection starting to fire closer to the center. It reminds me some of Nadine, in it's persistence.




Those damn women. :/
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21061
472. OracleDeAtlantis
8:08 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
This is technically a tropical depression, whether the NHC officially states it or not.
It sure looks like it to me. The convergence is pitiful, but it's actually stacked quite well, considering.

New convection starting to fire closer to the center. It reminds me some of Nadine, in it's persistence, and seems to be enjoying the squeeze play right now.


Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
471. KoritheMan
8:02 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Center seems exposed to the west of the convection in recent satellite frames.

Get the feeling that may forgo an upgrade.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21061
470. TomTaylor
7:56 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Remember that forecast package I said I was preparing? Here's a sneak peek at the intensity forecast:

INITIAL 10/11 0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12 hour 10/11 1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24 hour 10/12 0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH
36 hour 10/12 1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH
48 hour 10/13 0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
72 hour 10/14 0600Z 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
96 hour 10/15 0600Z...DISSIPATED

Call me a downcaster. No Patty. Sorry guys.
Don't think we'll see Patty from 97L either. ATCF has 97L at 35MPH, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it upgraded to a TD in the AM if convection can hang in there.

...And again, technically this already meets all classifications for a TD (and it probably has for about the last 12hrs). NHC's just trying to determine if it is worth their time.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
469. KoritheMan
7:51 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21061
468. Civicane49
7:31 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


It means we'll probably see an upgrade.


Agreed. If 97L continues to be organized, then it'll likely become a tropical depression briefly before facing hostile conditions.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
467. Civicane49
7:28 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
97L continues to produce deep convection.



98L continues to consolidate.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
466. KoritheMan
7:23 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Remember that forecast package I said I was preparing? Here's a sneak peek at the intensity forecast:

INITIAL 10/11 0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12 hour 10/11 1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24 hour 10/12 0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH
36 hour 10/12 1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH
48 hour 10/13 0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
72 hour 10/14 0600Z 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
96 hour 10/15 0600Z...DISSIPATED

Call me a downcaster. No Patty. Sorry guys.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21061
465. KoritheMan
7:23 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Quoting Civicane49:


Equivalent to 35 mph.


It means we'll probably see an upgrade.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21061

Viewing: 515 - 465

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
44 °F
Overcast