September 2012 the 23rd warmest on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on October 09, 2012

Share this Blog
32
+

September 2012 was the 23rd warmest September on record for the contiguous U.S, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. The month was also the driest on record for Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, and was a top-ten driest month for six surrounding states. The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.2°F above the previous record. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S. The first week of October has been one of the coldest weeks of the year, relative to average, with record cold lows outpacing record warm highs by a ratio of four-to-one in the contiguous U.S. However, next week will be warmer than average for the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that October 2012 will rank in the coldest one-third of Octobers on record. The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and was the 3rd warmest 12-month period on record. The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012.


Figure 1. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through September, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from October through December, the remaining three months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record (dark blue line), 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - September period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 45% during the year-to-date January - September period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012, and 79% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. Both are records. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 24%, which was the 8th greatest since 1910.


Figure 2. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - September shows that 2012 had the most extreme first nine months of the year on record, with 45% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 331 - 281

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

331. MadinBoy
2:17 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
the mid level vorticity (500mb) increases at 9N51W, the beginning of something?

Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
330. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
329. calkevin77
2:07 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Does ex-97L look like it is moving SE?


Link


Yeah it does look like its moving SE. Looks like that trough off the east coast is playing tug-o-war with it from the north and that cluster to its southeast is on the other side of the rope.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 838
328. 7544
2:00 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Does ex-97L look like it is moving SE?


Link


yep and with no meds lol scince last night make do a loop de loop and head back to cuba and then start all over imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
327. SLU
1:56 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Twin of TOMAS?

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4857
326. Patrap
1:51 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
98L Rainbow Loop


All NOAA FLoater Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
325. Patrap
1:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
324. Patrap
1:48 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
97E floater page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
323. Grothar
1:43 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Does ex-97L look like it is moving SE?


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
322. Grothar
1:36 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
The FIM9 model, which has performed well this year, has a weak system North of Puerto Rico in 5 days.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
321. LargoFl
1:32 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
320. LargoFl
1:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
gfs at 120 hours, comes close to PR as it goes northward...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
319. stormpetrol
1:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664
318. LargoFl
1:29 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I know, I was being silly. It's the new meds I'm on.
LOL share LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
317. Grothar
1:28 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..GFS says no, it turns north before the islands


I know, I was being silly. It's the new meds I'm on.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
316. stormpetrol
1:28 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
If anything 98L is moving west now or a little South of due West, just my take.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664
315. Grothar
1:28 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
314. LargoFl
1:25 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I agree. I think it is going to slam right into the islands. Especially the Northern Islands.
..GFS says no, it turns north before the islands
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
313. Grothar
1:24 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't see with 98L being that low and that far west how it can miss the Islands.


I agree. I think it is going to slam right into the islands. Especially the Northern Islands.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
312. LargoFl
1:23 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Gro is right..gfs has it as a fish storm as well..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
311. biff4ugo
1:23 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Exactly.


Yeah, nobody reports how October has three times more cold records than hot ones... oh, wait. Line 6 in Dr. Masters blog says what?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1543
310. Grothar
1:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting CaribBoy:


I'm sorry, I don't agree with the fish storm statement. Models have changed.


I just think it is boring, boring, boring.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
309. stormpetrol
1:22 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
I don't see with 98L being that low and that far west how it can miss the Islands.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664
308. LargoFl
1:21 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
307. CaribBoy
1:19 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Nothing but a big mess. Its a fish storm. Not worth tracking.



I'm sorry, I don't agree with the fish storm statement. Models have changed.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
306. LargoFl
1:17 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
UP TO 30% NOW.................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
305. Grothar
1:11 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Nothing but a big mess. Its a fish storm. Not worth tracking.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
303. Grothar
1:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
302. Grothar
1:05 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting WarEagle8:

Grothar, is there a current run for today, 10/10?


They haven't posted models for the past 12 hours. I don't know that is wrong. I'm still looking. I'm currently on my 7th cup of coffee. I should be in full gear in about an hour.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
301. Grothar
1:04 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gro, you are supposed to paint the paper, not the sky.


Hit refresh you twit! I posted a very important model track. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
299. stoormfury
12:57 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
the ne shear is not as strong over 98L as previously which is now allowing arial increase in cloud coverage. the system looks to be getting more organised and is quite possible that it is near depression stage
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2600
298. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:54 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar:



Gro, you are supposed to paint the paper, not the sky.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
297. WarEagle8
12:51 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar:



Grothar, is there a current run for today, 10/10?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 123
296. FtMyersgal
12:49 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-102100 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
500 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FOG IMPACT...
PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF FOG FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH...IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS FOG
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE
FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES WHEN TRAVELING IN FOGGY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...FOG IMPACT...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN DURING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER WISE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

09/RKR



Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
295. Grothar
12:49 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
294. Grothar
12:43 PM GMT on October 10, 2012


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
293. pottery
12:12 PM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
06z GFS remains very consistent that 98L will develop into Tropical Storm Patty.

Wont be long before we start getting very wet here at 11n 61w.
Looks to be a big 'wetter' !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24023
292. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:57 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
06z GFS @ 108 hours:



168:



216:



252:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
291. islander101010
11:49 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
follow jb not me remember early springs summer forecast wrong again anyway he thinks he is so good at that now he pushes his political agendas too. its about the money
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4326
290. CybrTeddy
11:47 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
06z GFS remains very consistent that 98L will develop into Tropical Storm Patty.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
289. islander101010
11:46 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
98=wet one
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4326
288. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:44 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
The GFS is trending stronger with the amount of instability on Saturday. Still hesitant to call it "major" this far out, but it's looking like it could be a big day for sure.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
287. SLU
11:43 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
10/0545 UTC 9.3N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
10/0545 UTC 25.7N 72.5W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic

I wonder why 97L was dropped from the TWO.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4857
286. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:40 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
97E gets a 20% yellow circle.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
285. GeoffreyWPB
11:39 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
98L...



Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
284. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:39 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
98L is up to 30%...slowly getting there.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
283. SLU
11:39 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
sigh

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4857
282. Tropicsweatherpr
11:24 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
From the San Juan NWS this morning.

THEREAFTER...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THERE IS STILL A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND EVEN MORE SO ABOUT WHERE IT WOULD EVENTUALLY
TRACK IF IT DOES DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGHT MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND CLOSER TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT MORE OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AT THIS POINT...IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS...IF
ANY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14004
281. pcola57
10:58 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


Hey Skye..
I know I may sound stupid but what are the barbs that are purple represent?


Never mind..Figured it out..thanks anyway.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770

Viewing: 331 - 281

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.