September 2012 the 23rd warmest on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on October 09, 2012

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September 2012 was the 23rd warmest September on record for the contiguous U.S, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. The month was also the driest on record for Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, and was a top-ten driest month for six surrounding states. The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.2°F above the previous record. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S. The first week of October has been one of the coldest weeks of the year, relative to average, with record cold lows outpacing record warm highs by a ratio of four-to-one in the contiguous U.S. However, next week will be warmer than average for the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that October 2012 will rank in the coldest one-third of Octobers on record. The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and was the 3rd warmest 12-month period on record. The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012.


Figure 1. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through September, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from October through December, the remaining three months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record (dark blue line), 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - September period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 45% during the year-to-date January - September period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012, and 79% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. Both are records. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 24%, which was the 8th greatest since 1910.


Figure 2. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - September shows that 2012 had the most extreme first nine months of the year on record, with 45% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting yonzabam:


Well, maybe it was the reference to the 'swivel eyed hordes of Mordor' that brought a smile to their faces. I'll use that one again

There's a regular columnist on there who's 10X worse than Dellingpole. Can't remember his name, but I'll have a look for it.

Edit: Christopher Booker.


It was. The Lord of the Rings trilogy is one of my favs
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
Quoting sar2401:


Goes-13 hasn't been working since September 23. It's now been declared DOA.

GOES-13 Link



That link and others still indicate the anomaly is under investigation and no permanent change has occurred yet.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link?


Goes-13 hasn't been working since September 23. It's now been declared DOA.

GOES-13 Link
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Hurricane Ivan in 2004:


Anyone else see the resemblance, assuming 98L can get oraganized?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

GOES-14 is permanently taking over GOES-13.


Link?
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I am ready for the blob over the Bahamas to get sucked into the jet and moved NE.

The extreme index has been increasing fairly stedily since 1970. That is a 40 year trend and as such qualifies as climate, correct?
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Ref comment 72 also see

http://www.bboyscience.com/myth-busting-aint-easy /



Myth Busting Ain't Easy - The Science of Correcting Misinformation
Posted on October 8, 2012

I thoroughly enjoy myth-busting. It's a good way to learn, it potentially saves you time and money, and it's just plain fun. It's also a big part of why I love science - the best myth-busting method ever (I'm a science fan-boy).

But it's not always fun and games.

Correcting misinformation can be incredibly frustrating. And when it comes to topics of science, health, and politics, the stakes can be very high. It's not just about the lack of public understanding - it can cost lives.

Misinformation has a pesky tendency to stick inside our brains, even after it's been corrected. And when the misinformation jives with the way people see the world, trying to correct them can actually backfire, increasing their misguided beliefs.

Psychologists have been studying these things for a while. Recently, a research article has been published that discusses how misinformation spreads, how it sticks, and the best ways to correct it.
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watch the Epac....
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Best 850mb Vort I've seen in SW Caribbean in quite a while.
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The journal Psychological Science in the Public Interest recently published a free, open access article titled
"Misinformation and Its Correction: Continued Influence and Successful Debiasing"
which can be found here.

http://psi.sagepub.com/content/13/3/106.full

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Quoting yonzabam:


Well, maybe it was the reference to the 'swivel eyed hordes of Mordor' that brought a smile to their faces. I'll use that one again

There's a regular columnist on there who's 10X worse than Dellingpole. Can't remember his name, but I'll have a look for it.
I assume you're referring to Christopher Booker. If so, I concur: he is definitely worse than Delingpole. Delingpole hurts his own cause by being nastily incendiary, making him easy to mock. Booker, OTOH, tries the "concern troll" approach, which is far more insidious. The pair of them have been debunked and discredited literally hundreds of times--but, after all, it is the Telegraph... ;-)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Heading over there shortly; Delingpole is one of the absolute worst.

On another note: won't it be funny when the three people who voted up your comment in haste actually take the time to read it or follow the link? ;-)


I dont think so ....I read the telegraph...and what gives you the right to judge why I voted for a comment anyway
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Quoting calkevin77:
Hey does anyone know if there have been any updates to GOES-13 or is 14 still covering?

The latest status message says the satellite is still in the process of being checked out/recovered, but it's looking like GOES-14 will have to replace it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting Neapolitan:
Heading over there shortly; Delingpole is one of the absolute worst.

On another note: won't it be funny when the three people who voted up your comment in haste actually take the time to read it or follow the link? ;-)


Well, maybe it was the reference to the 'swivel eyed hordes of Mordor' that brought a smile to their faces. I'll use that one again

There's a regular columnist on there who's 10X worse than Dellingpole. Can't remember his name, but I'll have a look for it.

Edit: Christopher Booker.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Well, I'm currently holding the fort against the swivel eyed hordes of Mordor in the comments section of a Daily Telegraph article.

You could pop in there now and again, but it gets pretty repetetive, as you know.

Link
Heading over there shortly; Delingpole is one of the absolute worst.

On another note: won't it be funny when the three people who voted up your comment in haste actually take the time to read it or follow the link? ;-)
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Quoting CaribBoy:
San Juan NWS Discussion doesn't say much... Looks like there are big uncertainties. If they were more confident they would say more I guess.


FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANYING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS SO FAR EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.



Good luck ! hope you get the rain
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Hey does anyone know if there have been any updates to GOES-13 or is 14 still covering?
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Quoting islander101010:
97 making a run a status


I dont know about that it seems to want to join that front and the shear seems to be damaging it IMO

Funk floater

Link
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Quoting CaribBoy:
12Z EURO 48HR




72HR



120HR



144HR

Euro likes it more than yesterday but the gfs has it weaker than yesterday cmc still the same.
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San Juan NWS Discussion doesn't say much... Looks like there are big uncertainties. If they were more confident they would say more I guess.


FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANYING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS SO FAR EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6164
12Z EURO 48HR




72HR



120HR



144HR

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6164
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I'm very busy; I can't rest until the forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution propaganda have been vanquished. And that may take a while... ;-)


Well, I'm currently holding the fort against the swivel eyed hordes of Mordor in the comments section of a Daily Telegraph article.

You could pop in there now and again, but it gets pretty repetetive, as you know.

Link
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Quoting NttyGrtty:


The forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution proaganda? It was a tongue in cheek comment to Jeff on Jeff's blog. May I suggest you let it go? It wasn't serious. In other words, lighten up Francis...
Oh, I see. Well, I've got a few suggestions of my own: a) if you don't wish to have a comment responded to, don't post it in a public forum, and b), if you're being facetious, make sure to communicate that clearly. Trust me; I learned those things the hard way. ;-)
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12Z UKM 120HRS

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6164
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

PRC081-083-093-131-091900-
LARES PR-MARICAO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
210 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

AT 206 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN SEBASTIAN AND LAS MARIAS...OR ABOUT 3
MILES WEST OF LARES...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG
WITH BLINDING RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.


HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

$$
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14226
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I'm very busy; I can't rest until the forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution propaganda have been vanquished. And that may take a while... ;-)


The forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution propaganda? It was a tongue in cheek comment to Jeff on Jeff's blog. May I suggest you let it go? It wasn't serious. In other words, lighten up Francis...
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97 making a run a status
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4527
Quoting NttyGrtty:


...and you. You must not be very busy
Oh, I'm very busy; I can't rest until the forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution propaganda have been vanquished. And that may take a while... ;-)
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97L RGB GIF



97L RAINBOW GIF

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98L RGB GIF



and rainbow

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18Z BAMM = 1999 JOSE

18Z LBAR = 1995 MARILYN (more or less)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6164
Quoting LargoFl:


WHXX01 KWBC 091756
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1756 UTC TUE OCT 9 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121009 1800 121010 0600 121010 1800 121011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 50.6W 10.5N 53.0W 11.2N 55.4W
BAMD 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 50.4W 11.0N 52.0W 12.6N 53.4W
BAMM 9.3N 48.3W 9.8N 50.8W 10.7N 52.8W 11.7N 54.7W
LBAR 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 51.5W 10.7N 54.4W 11.7N 57.1W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121011 1800 121012 1800 121013 1800 121014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 58.1W 13.2N 62.7W 13.8N 66.3W 13.7N 69.7W
BAMD 14.5N 54.6W 18.7N 56.9W 22.2N 58.7W 24.1N 59.2W
BAMM 12.9N 56.4W 15.3N 59.4W 17.2N 61.8W 17.6N 63.7W
LBAR 13.2N 59.4W 17.0N 62.8W 20.3N 63.4W 21.8N 61.8W
SHIP 28KTS 24KTS 27KTS 36KTS
DSHP 28KTS 24KTS 27KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 43.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 39.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14226
Love the LBAR and BAMM :) Really really really want some weather here.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6164
Quoting Wunderwood:


You went and did it! Now, we'll see a big one blow up and threaten the peninsula. Way to go Unknown.
Either way there is a hurricane party.
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18z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2012100918, , BEST, 0, 93N, 483W, 25, 1008, LO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14226
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's one possible interpretation--but only if the person interpreting were to ignore that whole part where Dr. Masters wrote, "The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or that part where he wrote, "2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S."

...or that other part where he wrote, "The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or the part where he wrote, "The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012"

...or the part where he wrote, "The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history"

...or the part where he wrote, "This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%"

...or the part where he wrote, "86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012".

If you ignore those little facts--along with the additional facts that it was only the U.S. that Dr. Masters wrote about, and then only for the month of September--then, yes, you could possibly be forgiven for drawing the silly and entirely false conclusion that we're in a phase of "global cooling".


...and you. You must not be very busy
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44. wpb
Quoting barbamz:
Thank you, Dr. Masters. Two blogs a day, wow.

Nasa was very happy with dear old Nadine, lol ...

NASA's HS3 Mission Thoroughly Investigates Long-Lived Hurricane Nadine
ScienceDaily (Oct. 8, 2012) —
NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel or HS3 scientists had a fascinating tropical cyclone to study in long-lived Hurricane Nadine. NASA's Global Hawk aircraft has investigated Nadine five times during the storm's lifetime. Read more.

nice post
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Single month is weather, not internal climate variability nor climate change.


...and thank you
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Uh...no. :)

This is only for the US, not the rest of the world. Also, a single month is hardly indicative of a climate trend. As Dr. M stated, overall it's very likely that 2012 will be the warmest year since record keeping began, even exceeding 1998 and this wasn't even a super strong El Nino year like 1998 was.


Uh, I know, but thanks. There is no tongue in cheek button...
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GFS at 177 hours...............
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Something we are missing in looking for yellow circles huh...........GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG
THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BY WED NIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF 10N90W. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ENHANCES THE FLOW OVER THE
N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS RELATED TO THIS LOW VERSUS RUNS FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS...AND
RAISES CONFIDENCE LEVEL WITH RESPECT TO WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
FORECASTS IN THE GRIDS.

WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING
A LARGE NW SWELL WAVE TRAIN THAT ENCROACHES INTO THE FAR NW
SECTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING ON WED AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS IS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA
BY THAT TIME. THE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE SEAS OF UP
TO 10 OR 11 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE/CHRISTENSEN
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98l is showing signs of consolidation
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2675
Quoting VR46L:


Michael was hoot...formed north in cooler waters I am not even sure if he was a wave ..and to think he is the only major of the year but a sweet lovely storm

i was particularly fond of that mariner storm :P
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

I think everyone missed Michael. He was a rockstar that defied all the forecasts. I'll give the GFS a pass on that one. ;)


How dare you! :P
Noticed it before the NHC circled it, formed from a disturbance that was born out of an ULL. At the start it had a really nice 850mb vort but little convection.
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Quoting overwash12:
Unless it's hot,then we all know what it means.


Hot weather, cold weather, rainy weather, dry weather. Doesn't matter.

Single event is weather. Single month is weather. Seasons to 1-2 year spans are a mix of weather and internal climate variability. Spans of 5-10yrs can be internal climate variability and in some cases considered climate. Periods of 20-30yrs is climate of length that can potentially be used to estimate climate changes.

In the context of climate change that involves our currently observed global warming, warm events on the shorter scales are consistent with, but not direct evident of, climate change. And as we know, when looking at the periods greater than 30yrs, the changes are unequivocal.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

I think everyone missed Michael. He was a rockstar that defied all the forecasts. I'll give the GFS a pass on that one. ;)


Michael was hoot...formed north in cooler waters I am not even sure if he was a wave ..and to think he is the only major of the year but a sweet lovely storm

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

I'm pretty grounded with the GFS this year. I'm usually not, but this year has really showcased it's best stuff.


Yep it was the only one to nail Debby, and had Isaac in the bag first, but I will argue they all missed Michael til it was on its way to a major
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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