September 2012 the 23rd warmest on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on October 09, 2012

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September 2012 was the 23rd warmest September on record for the contiguous U.S, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. The month was also the driest on record for Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, and was a top-ten driest month for six surrounding states. The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.2°F above the previous record. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S. The first week of October has been one of the coldest weeks of the year, relative to average, with record cold lows outpacing record warm highs by a ratio of four-to-one in the contiguous U.S. However, next week will be warmer than average for the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that October 2012 will rank in the coldest one-third of Octobers on record. The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and was the 3rd warmest 12-month period on record. The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012.


Figure 1. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through September, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from October through December, the remaining three months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record (dark blue line), 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - September period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 45% during the year-to-date January - September period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012, and 79% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. Both are records. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 24%, which was the 8th greatest since 1910.


Figure 2. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - September shows that 2012 had the most extreme first nine months of the year on record, with 45% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is a rundown of the models in terms of Puerto Rico is concerned.



The GFS places it Northeast Monday at 6 am as a tropical depression.

The ECMWF places it touching to the Northeast on Saturday at noon as a strong wave, perhaps depression.

The CMC puts it almost impacting to the Southwest on Sunday early in the morning as a strong tropical storm, perhaps more.
Perhaps you are more informed. Is it true that it would be a slow mover when it passes near us? if it affects us I'm saying...that could mean lots of trouble...
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98L on the move...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reached a whopping 58F this afternoon with overcast skies.

Can't wait for it to snow.


58F and overcast here too, same on the snow. Need more.
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72 hours


GFS 138 Hours with NNW movement

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Speaking of cold weather, the heat for the first floor of my house broke. :( It is currently a balmy 62 inside, thanks to the insulation keeping the warmth we have in. Second floor works fine, a nice 68 there.

My poor toes have gone numb, they are the only things I can't keep warm.
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Interesting!! that most of the models take 97L not NE but South west over Cuba (See CMC) and then the moisture going North again toward South Florida,if this solution fan out we can have a continue very wet few days.


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Here is a rundown of the models in terms of Puerto Rico is concerned.



The GFS places it Northeast Monday at 6 am as a tropical depression.

The ECMWF places it touching to the Northeast on Saturday at noon as a strong wave, perhaps depression.

The CMC puts it almost impacting to the Southwest on Sunday early in the morning as a strong tropical storm, perhaps more.
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123. JLPR2
Last GFS run developed 98L faster than any previous one & yep, it's looking better.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reached a whopping 58F this afternoon with overcast skies.

Can't wait for it to snow.

Wow, it is colder there than it is here. I am at 59F right now and was higher earlier today.
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Interesting!! that most of the models take 97L not NE but South west over Cuba (See CMC) and then the moisture going North again toward South Florida,if this solution fan out we can have a continue very wet few days.
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If this damn 18Z materializes we won't GET MUCH RAIN :(
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18Z NO LONGER SHOWS A SLOW MOVER.
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GFS! Listen! Put me in the right quad!!!!! Thanks!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That's one possible interpretation--but only if the person interpreting were to ignore that whole part where Dr. Masters wrote, "The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or that part where he wrote, "2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S."

...or that other part where he wrote, "The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or the part where he wrote, "The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012"

...or the part where he wrote, "The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history"

...or the part where he wrote, "This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%"

...or the part where he wrote, "86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012".

If you ignore those little facts--along with the additional facts that it was only the U.S. that Dr. Masters wrote about, and then only for the month of September--then, yes, you could possibly be forgiven for drawing the silly and entirely false conclusion that we're in a phase of "global cooling".




The AGW gang say its true, I believe them and that is all there is to it.

Ah yes, I almost forgot. Silly me.



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Good afternoon fellow bloggers!
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Quoting MrMixon:
Socked in cloudy down here on the plains...



And what's this... a freaking fire in Rocky Mountain National Park?



Click image to link to a Boulder Daily Camera article with very limited info...

(NOTE - the top image is a live webcam. The bottom image was apparently taken before a low deck of stratus moved in across the area. The fire zone is, I believe, above the stratus deck).


Additional note - According to this (also short) article there is a pre-evacuation notice for the YMCA near the park.
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Sorry, have to run now
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Quoting superpete:
Invest 98 center passing 48.5 West / 9.3 North , T & T & the Windwards coming into view.Just not seeing this big swing to the north varying models are showing. They may not have a good grasp on 98 at this stage, may change if it gets up to a TD & better data flows in for analysis ? Thoughts anyone?




Hi Pete,

The models see the Atl high well off to the NE which would make the steering NW once it reaches the Islands.

Later in the run the GFS has 98L meandering back to the West into the West/ central caribbean. The 18Z run is not finished now but take a look at where the GFS has the steering high and 98L in the image below which is this Saturday.

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Socked in cloudy down here on the plains...



And what's this... a freaking fire in Rocky Mountain National Park?



Click image to link to a Boulder Daily Camera article with very limited info...

(NOTE - the top image is a live webcam. The bottom image was apparently taken before a low deck of stratus moved in across the area. The fire zone is, I believe, above the stratus deck).
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Reached a whopping 58F this afternoon with overcast skies.

Can't wait for it to snow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32711
Only got to 69F here in Cnetral Jacksonville.
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So bearing in mind that its the 9th of October.
The temp was 35/ C in Seville today, about 96/F, sapphire blue skies and not a breath of wind. How different from 2 weeks ago with up to 12 inches of rain falling in the area in a day.
I read that Telegraph article, not that I understood it.
Interesting comment I have from a builder friend of mine who is working on building a big testing shed for windmill blades in the north of England. The blades of the windmills are 100 meters,(330 feet) long and are made in India. The concrete for the testing area was the largest concrete pour in recent UK history and was done by a firm of Pakistanis. Who completed their job and went home!
These windmills are going to have a sweep of about 600 feet, sort of awesome!
I have no linkable confirmation of this but I assume its true coming from a colleague of many years.
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98L

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NHC should push 98L up to 30% at 8pm. The broad circulation it has is open on the SW, but is slowly getting its act together to say the least...
98L still has a shot.
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Invest 98 center passing 48.5 West / 9.3 North , T & T & the Windwards coming into view.Just not seeing this big swing to the north varying models are showing. They may not have a good grasp on 98 at this stage, may change if it gets up to a TD & better data flows in for analysis ? Thoughts anyone?


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Quoting CaribBoy:
18Z NAM

Link
if this system plays out your going to get what youve been looking for some good wind and rain
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98L looking good on the RGB in motion at the NHC this afternoon,kind of think they'll bump it up later tonight. 40% maybe
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18Z NAM

Link
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98 is a big system
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When Mother Nature Flex's..we can feel it huh.......
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..tomorrow should be even better than today humidity wise yesssss..meanwhile today, just some low clouds..no rain at all
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


WHXX01 KWBC 091756
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1756 UTC TUE OCT 9 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121009 1800 121010 0600 121010 1800 121011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 50.6W 10.5N 53.0W 11.2N 55.4W
BAMD 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 50.4W 11.0N 52.0W 12.6N 53.4W
BAMM 9.3N 48.3W 9.8N 50.8W 10.7N 52.8W 11.7N 54.7W
LBAR 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 51.5W 10.7N 54.4W 11.7N 57.1W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121011 1800 121012 1800 121013 1800 121014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 58.1W 13.2N 62.7W 13.8N 66.3W 13.7N 69.7W
BAMD 14.5N 54.6W 18.7N 56.9W 22.2N 58.7W 24.1N 59.2W
BAMM 12.9N 56.4W 15.3N 59.4W 17.2N 61.8W 17.6N 63.7W
LBAR 13.2N 59.4W 17.0N 62.8W 20.3N 63.4W 21.8N 61.8W
SHIP 28KTS 24KTS 27KTS 36KTS
DSHP 28KTS 24KTS 27KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 43.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 39.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

YES WE need to watch that next week for sure
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Quoting sar2401:
Hurricane Ivan in 2004:


Anyone else see the resemblance, assuming 98L can get oraganized?


knowing how weird this year has been...that loop in the GOM could even be possible
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The journal Psychological Science in the Public Interest recently published a free, open access article titled
"Misinformation and Its Correction: Continued Influence and Successful Debiasing"
which can be found here.

http://psi.sagepub.com/content/13/3/106.full



Thank you CRS, this link and the one in your post #75 are very interesting and informative. Much appreciated!
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I see we got something to watch in the Atlantic..

Everyone have a great end to the day!

12z CMC-
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HPC extended discussion

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEK WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A
SURFACE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
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Good afternoon. Prapiroon:

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090853
SPC AC 090853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A REMNANT CLOSED
LOW...OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...
WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
...INCLUDING A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION...
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL APPEAR MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL POSSIBLE
WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB
JET...AND 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...A REGIONAL SEVERE OUTLOOK
APPEARS WARRANTED...AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT BEGINS TO COME WITHIN A
MORE PREDICTABLE TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 10/09/2012
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Quoting yonzabam:


Well, maybe it was the reference to the 'swivel eyed hordes of Mordor' that brought a smile to their faces. I'll use that one again

There's a regular columnist on there who's 10X worse than Dellingpole. Can't remember his name, but I'll have a look for it.

Edit: Christopher Booker.


I'm heeding my own advice and ignoring the troll...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I revised my comment to read, "The latest status message says the satellite is still in the process of being checked out/recovered, but it's looking like GOES-14 will have to replace it."


Hope that does not happen, leaves us without a backup for 3 years and blows the replacement schedule apart.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



That link and others still indicate the anomaly is under investigation and no permanent change has occurred yet.

I revised my comment to read, "The latest status message says the satellite is still in the process of being checked out/recovered, but it's looking like GOES-14 will have to replace it."
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Heading over there shortly; Delingpole is one of the absolute worst.

On another note: won't it be funny when the three people who voted up your comment in haste actually take the time to read it or follow the link? ;-)


grand-standing humor huh.....great mo...
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Reed Timmer has jumped on the hype wagon (as always) and is saying Saturday will be a "MAJOR tornado outbreak". This is several days out, so calling anything MAJOR at this point is a bit silly, and even if the event were within close range, the narrow and relatively weak corridor of instability depicted by the models is likely not enough for a big outbreak.



Wind shear is more than plentiful, however:

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Quoting yonzabam:


Well, maybe it was the reference to the 'swivel eyed hordes of Mordor' that brought a smile to their faces. I'll use that one again

There's a regular columnist on there who's 10X worse than Dellingpole. Can't remember his name, but I'll have a look for it.

Edit: Christopher Booker.


It was. The Lord of the Rings trilogy is one of my favs
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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