September 2012 the 23rd warmest on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on October 09, 2012

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September 2012 was the 23rd warmest September on record for the contiguous U.S, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. The month was also the driest on record for Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, and was a top-ten driest month for six surrounding states. The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.2°F above the previous record. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S. The first week of October has been one of the coldest weeks of the year, relative to average, with record cold lows outpacing record warm highs by a ratio of four-to-one in the contiguous U.S. However, next week will be warmer than average for the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that October 2012 will rank in the coldest one-third of Octobers on record. The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and was the 3rd warmest 12-month period on record. The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012.


Figure 1. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through September, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from October through December, the remaining three months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record (dark blue line), 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - September period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 45% during the year-to-date January - September period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012, and 79% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. Both are records. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 24%, which was the 8th greatest since 1910.


Figure 2. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - September shows that 2012 had the most extreme first nine months of the year on record, with 45% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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181. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:30 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


two active regions will come soon in full view

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53553
180. Tropicsweatherpr
12:29 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
ULL sagging Southwestwards towards the NE Caribbean Islands, Trough has pushed off the East Coast and even cleared my area in Central FL. 97L pretty much in the middle of the picture and 98L bottom right.



As long that ULL is there,it will protect the islands from 98L developing into a TC.But plenty of rain is a sure thing regardless of development or not.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14219
179. GTcooliebai
12:25 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Not quiet, but taking there time, rather...
Conditions might stay favorable for development for the rest of this month.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
178. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:25 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Link for comment 176

http://oncirculation.com/2012/10/10/the-2011-la-n ina-so-stroong-the-oceans-fell/
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6007
177. stormchaser19
12:24 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting SLU:


Which made sense to increase the percentage to medium. The NHC made this same mistake with the pre-Tomas wave in the same location 2 years ago. They dismissed the system's chances of development and kept the probability at under 30% when the system was showing obvious signs of development just because it was late-October. Then the system exploded from a T-wave to a cat 2 hurricane operationally in under 30 hrs right over the islands, catching everyone off guard.


Strong shear is on 98L.... rapid development is not expected.. at least for now but who knows
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2157
176. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:23 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
The 2011 La Nina: Queensland floods contribute to temporary drop in sea-level

Posted on October 10, 2012

By Kelly


GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L19602, 5 PP., 2012


That’s right, there is new evidence that demonstrates that the amount of rain that fell on the terrestrial biosphere during the 2011 La Nina event was enough to register a decrease in global mean sea level (GMSL). And while this may not come as news to people living in Queensland it certainly highlights the magnitude of influence that the El Niño (and his opposite La Niña) Southern Oscillation has on the global water cycle.

In an article published in Geophysical Research Letters and highlighted in Science Editor’s Choice, Boening et al., report that GMSL dropped 5mm between the beginning of 2010 and mid 2011. This is a significant amount if you consider that GMSL has been rising 1.7mm per year since ~1880, and accelerated to 3mm per year over the past 18 years (measured by satellite altimeters, and programs such as GRACE). These findings do not in any way undermine the sea-level rise predicted with continued warming. The strength of the 2011 La Niña only demonstrates the extreme nature of events that are anticipated under current climate change projections.

...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6007
174. Patrap
12:22 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Added 10/09/2012 @ 17:45 UTC

Aurora from 21,000 Feet

Another fantastic Aurora image submitted by Matt Melnyk, this time from 21,000 feet in the air over Alberta, Canada. "Here are some shots of last nights display from 21,000 feet. I am a pilot so I get a great view of the aurora from the cockpit. This was between 02:30 am and 03:30 am while flying to Fort McMurray from Edmonton at 21,000 feet."

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
173. HuracanTaino
12:22 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Tropics are quiet

Not quiet, but taking there time, rather...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 852
172. Patrap
12:20 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
www.solarham.net


SOLAR FLARE ALERT:

A moderate solar flare reaching M1.7 took place at 23:31 UTC Tuesday evening.
The flare was centered off the southeast limb. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.


Added 10/09/2012 @ 23:40 UTC
M-Flare
A sunspot region about to rotate into view off the southeast limb just produced a moderate M1.7 Solar Flare at 23:31 UTC Tuesday evening. Image by SDO.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
171. GTcooliebai
12:19 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
ULL sagging Southwestwards towards the NE Caribbean Islands, Trough has pushed off the East Coast and even cleared my area in Central FL. 97L pretty much in the middle of the picture and 98L bottom right.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
170. HuracanTaino
12:17 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting SLU:


Which made sense to increase the percentage to medium. The NHC made this same mistake with the pre-Tomas wave in the same location 2 years ago. They dismissed the system's chances of development and kept the probability at under 30% when the system was showing obvious signs of development just because it was late-October. Then the system exploded from a T-wave to a cat 2 hurricane operationally in under 30 hrs right over the islands, catching everyone off guard.
They wont change there conservative way of forecastings storms, sometimes they go to the extremes,as you say with pre-Tomas, until they see consistency, they wont raise the , numbers, they are betting on the shear...lets see who wins the battle if the NHC or 98L,...that thing seems to be fighting hard to enhance its status....,
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 852
169. Patrap
12:16 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Sept Co2 is in

391.07ppm


co2now.org



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
168. Dakster
12:15 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
I now this may be before you time, TA13. But that image reminds me of an old video game... Let;s see if anyone can guess the name of the game.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10075
167. MAweatherboy1
12:15 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
09/2345 UTC 9.5N 50.2W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
09/2345 UTC 25.4N 72.0W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7743
166. ZeusWrath
12:15 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting SLU:


Which made sense to increase the percentage to medium. The NHC made this same mistake with the pre-Tomas wave in the same location 2 years ago. They dismissed the system's chances of development and kept the probability at under 30% when the system was showing obvious signs of development just because it was late-October. Then the system exploded from a T-wave to a cat 2 hurricane operationally in under 30 hrs right over the islands, catching everyone off guard.


exactly
Member Since: August 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
165. stormchaser19
12:14 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Analogs for 98L

Tomas 2010
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2157
164. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:13 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A small change in the 8 PM TWO was that they took out the words " Development if any".

And replaced it with "any development..." =P

They do note that shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated over the past few hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31906
163. MAweatherboy1
12:12 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A small change in the 8 PM TWO was that they took out the words " Development if any".

Not really... they just changed it to "any development"... they pretty much just reissued the same TWO they've had up for the last day or two.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7743
162. Tropicsweatherpr
12:09 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
A small change in the 8 PM TWO was that they took out the words " Development if any".
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14219
161. SLU
12:09 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Even thou they did not increased the percent, the wording is a little bit more bullish if you read it closely.


Which made sense to increase the percentage to medium. The NHC made this same mistake with the pre-Tomas wave in the same location 2 years ago. They dismissed the system's chances of development and kept the probability at under 30% when the system was showing obvious signs of development just because it was late-October. Then the system exploded from a T-wave to a cat 2 hurricane operationally in under 30 hrs right over the islands, catching everyone off guard.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5060
160. Progster
12:08 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting Progster:


600 foot sweep? If so the blade tips will be moving pretty fast ~1900 ft circumference, 15 rpm, 320 mi/h. Watch out birds!


forgot to add the word "circumference". Long day at work.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
159. GTcooliebai
12:06 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

I see a TS just to the NW of Puerto Rico, nothing in the Caribbean.
It was an old run, I needed to refresh that one, it takes too long for the 12z ensemble runs to come out and it is already past 8PM EDT.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
158. MAweatherboy1
12:05 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While Saturday will likely be the main event (hesitant to call it a major outbreak until we get closer in time), Friday may also be a big day for portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as SE Colorado and SW Kansas.

Look at this sounding..


I'm looking forward to tracking some severe weather. Hurricanes are the best but we have to mix it up sometimes, especially since this year's severe season was so weak.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7743
157. wxchaser97
12:04 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Potent System in the NE Caribbean.


I see a TS just to the NW of Puerto Rico, nothing in the Caribbean.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
156. GTcooliebai
12:04 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While Saturday will likely be the main event (hesitant to call it a major outbreak until we get closer in time), Friday may also be a big day for portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as SE Colorado and SW Kansas.

Look at this sounding..

I wish I knew how to read this, but I think shear values have to be high for a decent outbreak.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
155. Progster
12:04 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting PlazaRed:
So bearing in mind that its the 9th of October.
The temp was 35/ C in Seville today, about 96/F, sapphire blue skies and not a breath of wind. How different from 2 weeks ago with up to 12 inches of rain falling in the area in a day.
I read that Telegraph article, not that I understood it.
Interesting comment I have from a builder friend of mine who is working on building a big testing shed for windmill blades in the north of England. The blades of the windmills are 100 meters,(330 feet) long and are made in India. The concrete for the testing area was the largest concrete pour in recent UK history and was done by a firm of Pakistanis. Who completed their job and went home!
These windmills are going to have a sweep of about 600 feet, sort of awesome!
I have no linkable confirmation of this but I assume its true coming from a colleague of many years.


600 foot sweep? If so the blade tips will be moving pretty fast ~1900 ft, 15 rpm, 320 mi/h. Watch out birds!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
154. Thrawst
12:01 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Any of you guys going to tune in to Reed Timmer's podcast @9pm EDT?
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1865
153. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:00 AM GMT on October 10, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Potent System in the NE Caribbean.


Refresh?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31906
152. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:58 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
While Saturday will likely be the main event (hesitant to call it a major outbreak until we get closer in time), Friday may also be a big day for portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as SE Colorado and SW Kansas.

Look at this sounding..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31906
151. GTcooliebai
11:56 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Potent System in the NE Caribbean.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7743
Interesting that the lastest GFS has 97L moving back SW.

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98L has a lot of convection but hasn't been able to organize it:



97L probably won't be with us much longer:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7743
Quoting wxchaser97:
For anyone who said remains at 20%, you are correct.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.


Even thou they did not increased the percent, the wording is a little bit more bullish if you read it closely.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14219
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For anyone who said remains at 20%, you are correct.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
IF..your thinking a florida vacation..THIS is the week..going to be beautiful here this whole week, rain gone and a beautiful beach week it is now........
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140. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 092338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD
AND MERGES WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5060
Tropics are quiet

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138. SLU
Knowing the conservative NHC i'll say no more than 30% despite 98L's much improved satellite representation.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5060
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
...and here I thought Grothar was matchless.

: )


Notice Geoff isn't posting anything. Checkmate!!
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...and here I thought Grothar was matchless.

: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6007
Quoting Astrometeor:


Oooo, chess match.


It gives the old guy something to do.
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Quoting Grothar:br /
Your turn Geoff


Oooo, chess match.
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Perhaps you are more informed. Is it true that it would be a slow mover when it passes near us? if it affects us I'm saying...that could mean lots of trouble...


You may know when it rains a lot here how it floods in many parts of the island. If it moves slow,it may dump between 3-5 inches with higher totals in the mountains.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14219
97L on the move



Your turn Geoff
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is a rundown of the models in terms of Puerto Rico is concerned.



The GFS places it Northeast Monday at 6 am as a tropical depression.

The ECMWF places it touching to the Northeast on Saturday at noon as a strong wave, perhaps depression.

The CMC puts it almost impacting to the Southwest on Sunday early in the morning as a strong tropical storm, perhaps more.
Perhaps you are more informed. Is it true that it would be a slow mover when it passes near us? if it affects us I'm saying...that could mean lots of trouble...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 852

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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