September 2012 the 23rd warmest on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on October 09, 2012

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September 2012 was the 23rd warmest September on record for the contiguous U.S, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. The month was also the driest on record for Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, and was a top-ten driest month for six surrounding states. The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.2°F above the previous record. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S. The first week of October has been one of the coldest weeks of the year, relative to average, with record cold lows outpacing record warm highs by a ratio of four-to-one in the contiguous U.S. However, next week will be warmer than average for the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that October 2012 will rank in the coldest one-third of Octobers on record. The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and was the 3rd warmest 12-month period on record. The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012.


Figure 1. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through September, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from October through December, the remaining three months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record (dark blue line), 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - September period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 45% during the year-to-date January - September period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012, and 79% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. Both are records. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 24%, which was the 8th greatest since 1910.


Figure 2. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - September shows that 2012 had the most extreme first nine months of the year on record, with 45% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaribBoy:


I really hate... 2012
Jeez you just can't seem to win. I thought TUTT's were usually associated with El-Nino weather patterns, at least the positioning of it close to the Eastern Caribbean.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
Anyways I see they are discounting the EURO.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD PR AND USVI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. TUTT THEN
GETS ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY EVENTUALLLY
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WNW OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

&&

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE WNW AT 15 TO 20 MPH STAYING MAINLY EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO KEEP SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR FCST AREA. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IMPACTED
BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR KEEPING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY ASSYMETRIC WITH
LITTLE OR NO WEATHER ON THE WRN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...GFS HEIGHT
AND WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY BE INITIALLY MORE
SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE THAN TROPICAL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER BEING REMOVED FAR FROM THE CENTER BUT
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE TROPICAL WITH TIME. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT OFFER A BIG RELIEF TO OUR RAINFALL DEFICITS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.


I really hate... 2012
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
227. T3b0w
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210100237
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18Z GFS Ensemble Members mostly head to system into the islands.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
non earth facing side

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD PR AND USVI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. TUTT THEN
GETS ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY EVENTUALLLY
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WNW OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

&&

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE WNW AT 15 TO 20 MPH STAYING MAINLY EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO KEEP SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR FCST AREA. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IMPACTED
BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR KEEPING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY ASSYMETRIC WITH
LITTLE OR NO WEATHER ON THE WRN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...GFS HEIGHT
AND WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY BE INITIALLY MORE
SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE THAN TROPICAL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER BEING REMOVED FAR FROM THE CENTER BUT
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE TROPICAL WITH TIME. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT OFFER A BIG RELIEF TO OUR RAINFALL DEFICITS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
LBAR track is still OK though. Also all these tracks look pretty slow
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah that's why I posted it. It could be lopsided at first due to the shear, but it is the NOGAPS afterall :P


With the predicted shear it will for sure
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SHIP is more bullish at 00z.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0215 UTC WED OCT 10 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121010 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121010 0000 121010 1200 121011 0000 121011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 50.4W 9.5N 52.5W 10.3N 54.6W 10.9N 56.9W
BAMD 8.9N 50.4W 9.7N 52.2W 11.0N 53.7W 12.6N 55.2W
BAMM 8.9N 50.4W 9.6N 52.4W 10.7N 53.9W 11.9N 55.4W
LBAR 8.9N 50.4W 9.9N 53.1W 11.0N 55.5W 12.4N 57.8W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121012 0000 121013 0000 121014 0000 121015 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 59.1W 12.8N 62.8W 13.7N 65.2W 14.2N 67.3W
BAMD 14.5N 56.7W 18.1N 59.6W 20.6N 62.0W 22.9N 63.8W
BAMM 13.2N 56.8W 15.8N 59.2W 18.1N 61.2W 19.7N 62.7W
LBAR 14.1N 59.7W 17.6N 62.0W 21.1N 61.8W 22.6N 61.1W
SHIP 40KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS
DSHP 40KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 50.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 8.2N LONM12 = 46.5W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 41.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIPS sucks.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Why SHIP is more bullish on intensity with that moderate shear that will have to deal with?

The wind shear predicted is not strong enough to prevent development and intensification, it will just hinder it. All of the other parameters, such as Sea Surface Temperatures and mid-level Relative Humidity, are quite favorable for steady development.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
Quoting CaribBoy:


Don't like it... looks like Ophelia last year. ALL THE RAIN STAYED JUST OFFSHORE. WHAT A SAME!!!
Yeah that's why I posted it. It could be lopsided at first due to the shear, but it is the NOGAPS afterall :P
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
I wanna be in the RIGHT QUAD please :'(
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
98L has some moderate wind shear to deal with after 24 hours, but other than that, it's smooth sailing for the invest.

SHEAR (KT) 6 13 14 13 21 26 29 32 27 23 18 22 23


Why SHIP is more bullish on intensity with that moderate shear that will have to deal with?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
98L has some moderate wind shear to deal with after 24 hours, but other than that, it's smooth sailing for the invest.

SHEAR (KT) 6 13 14 13 21 26 29 32 27 23 18 22 23
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32278
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NOGAPS 66 hrs.




Don't like it... looks like Ophelia last year. ALL THE RAIN STAYED JUST OFFSHORE. WHAT A SAME!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
SHIP is more bullish at 00z.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0215 UTC WED OCT 10 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121010 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121010 0000 121010 1200 121011 0000 121011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 50.4W 9.5N 52.5W 10.3N 54.6W 10.9N 56.9W
BAMD 8.9N 50.4W 9.7N 52.2W 11.0N 53.7W 12.6N 55.2W
BAMM 8.9N 50.4W 9.6N 52.4W 10.7N 53.9W 11.9N 55.4W
LBAR 8.9N 50.4W 9.9N 53.1W 11.0N 55.5W 12.4N 57.8W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121012 0000 121013 0000 121014 0000 121015 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 59.1W 12.8N 62.8W 13.7N 65.2W 14.2N 67.3W
BAMD 14.5N 56.7W 18.1N 59.6W 20.6N 62.0W 22.9N 63.8W
BAMM 13.2N 56.8W 15.8N 59.2W 18.1N 61.2W 19.7N 62.7W
LBAR 14.1N 59.7W 17.6N 62.0W 21.1N 61.8W 22.6N 61.1W
SHIP 40KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS
DSHP 40KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 50.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 8.2N LONM12 = 46.5W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 41.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NOGAPS 66 hrs.


??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2012101000, , BEST, 0, 89N, 504W, 30, 1009, LO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
Active sun indeed.

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10344
NOGAPS 66 hrs.


Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Oooo, pretty blue lights on the shore, and they are living creatures.

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10344
Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - That could be an interesting sun spot...


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What is the sun up to now? Another burst of the auroras, and flares, huh?

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10344
Definitely,

I had a conversation today with another Fella who was with us there in 84.

Was a good conversation fer sho.
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Hay, Pat. These look familiar?



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Quoting wxmod:
MODIS satellite photo of the North Pacific today

I like these photos of contrails.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
There are now 71 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice
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Quoting Gearsts:
Hope it stays weak i just want the rain.


So do I :)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6231
People follow JB still?

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Another Tweet by JB.


@BigJoeBastardi

Finally some moist air in traditional atlantic breeding ground at 400 mb. should allow development on way nw.

Link
Hope it stays weak i just want the rain.
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Another Tweet by JB.


@BigJoeBastardi

Finally some moist air in traditional atlantic breeding ground at 400 mb. should allow development on way nw.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
196. wxmod
This is a satellite photo of a large ship via MODIS Terra satellite. The image has a resolution of 250 meters. And the ship itself covers ten or fifteen pixels. It's a BIG ship. Date 10-9-12

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195. wxmod
MODIS satellite photo of the North Pacific today

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194. wxmod
North Pacific. MODIS satellite photo

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193. wxmod
The North Pacific. MODIS satellite photo today

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97L:



98L:

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190. etxwx
Local news on Prapiroon (Nina):
Typhoon Nina (Prapiroon) moves W-NW, fishermen warned vs big waves
October 10, 2012 8:20am
State weather forecasters on Wednesday warned fishermen and small seacraft in the country's northern and eastern seaboards against big waves as Typhoon Nina (Prapiroon) moved west-northwest.

PAGASA forecaster Bernie de Leon said that, while Typhoon Nina is still too far to directly affect the country, it is enhancing strong- to gale-force winds that could genereate big waves.
"TY Nina remains a slow-moving system northeast of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Owing to its distance to Luzon island including its expected recurvature —from northwest to northeast movement within the next two days— TY Nina does not pose a direct threat to any part of the archipelago, with respect to rainfall. However, its elongated trough will affect central and southern parts of Luzon, Visayas and northern Mindanao where occasional light to moderate rains or thunderstorms will prevail today," said GMA resident meteorologist Nathaniel "Mang Tani" Cruz.

"Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas. Gale warning is now in effect in these areas and small seacraft are advised not to venture out into the sea," he added.

Typhoon Nina is forecast to turn and head in a northeastern path away from the PAR by this weekend:
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Quoting Stoopid1:
Only got to 69F here in Cnetral Jacksonville.

Wow, I would love that here in West Palm Beach. Down here it is like we have been in summer since March 2011, with a few cold days.
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187. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 10 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (960 hPa) located at 18.3N 130.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.9N 128.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.2N 128.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.9N 127.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
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KOTG - That could be an interesting sun spot...
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Quoting Dakster:


Close.. Tempest..


That's it!

Tempest
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Wasn't it called "Spikes" or something like that?


Close.. Tempest..
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Quoting Dakster:
I now this may be before you time, TA13. But that image reminds me of an old video game... Let;s see if anyone can guess the name of the game.


Wasn't it called "Spikes" or something like that?
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something big is moving into view


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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


two active regions will come soon in full view

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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