September 2012 the 23rd warmest on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on October 09, 2012

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September 2012 was the 23rd warmest September on record for the contiguous U.S, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. The month was also the driest on record for Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, and was a top-ten driest month for six surrounding states. The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.2°F above the previous record. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S. The first week of October has been one of the coldest weeks of the year, relative to average, with record cold lows outpacing record warm highs by a ratio of four-to-one in the contiguous U.S. However, next week will be warmer than average for the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that October 2012 will rank in the coldest one-third of Octobers on record. The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and was the 3rd warmest 12-month period on record. The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012.


Figure 1. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through September, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from October through December, the remaining three months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record (dark blue line), 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - September period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 45% during the year-to-date January - September period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012, and 79% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. Both are records. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 24%, which was the 8th greatest since 1910.


Figure 2. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - September shows that 2012 had the most extreme first nine months of the year on record, with 45% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pcola57:


Hey Skye..
I know I may sound stupid but what are the barbs that are purple represent?


Never mind..Figured it out..thanks anyway.. :)
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The East coast of Australia from Victoria all the way up to mid coastal Queensland is in for a very bumpy few days ahead. A strong cold front is currently moving through Victoria and Southern New South Wales. A Very strong east coast low is starting to form of the South coast of New South Wales and will continue to intensify and could get as strong as 980mb and pack wind around 45kts. This "super" low will bring snow to Tasmania down to as low as 1900ft, in Victoria down to 2600ft and NSW down to 3600ft which mean there will be snow possible from the NSW/Victoria boarder all the way up the Great Dividing Range and into southern Qld. Rainfall is expected to be up to 3.94in in 24hrs with higher falls possible.

Qld will also get a strong band of thunderstorms which could bring 60mph winds, large hail and possible high rainfall rates which could cause flash flooding.



East Coast low on the horizon

Intense rain and thunderstorms heading to QLD and NSW

Current Bureau of Meteorology Warnings.
Severe Weather Warning

FLOOD WATCH

Coastal Waters Wind Warning

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Quoting Patrap:
People follow JB still?




A lot more than you.
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I gave in and blogged anyway. Go figure.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF THE DAYS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE LATER TODAY...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting Skyepony:
97L


Hey Skye..
I know I may sound stupid but what are the barbs that are purple represent?
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
A friend on irc posted this link tonight. I found it fascinating. It's a mechanical heat exchanger with a VERY familiar shape and function. :)



Very cool indeed..I know of a company that may be interested in this..thanks SherwoodSpirit
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274. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh OSCAT of 98L
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A friend on irc posted this link tonight. I found it fascinating. It's a mechanical heat exchanger with a VERY familiar shape and function. :)

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272. Skyepony (Mod)
97L
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271. Skyepony (Mod)
Prapiroon
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Quoting Skyepony:
97L hot tower..

wow that's shooting up very high.
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269. Skyepony (Mod)
Olivia on TRMM.
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Quoting wxmod:
This is a satellite photo of a large ship via MODIS Terra satellite. The image has a resolution of 250 meters. And the ship itself covers ten or fifteen pixels. It's a BIG ship. Date 10-9-12



Your a ship fanatic, congrats on that :-)
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267. Skyepony (Mod)
97L hot tower..
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GFS and NOGAPS have shifted west a little bit.

Here is the NOGAPS. It shows a better organized and more symmetric system over the N Antilles.

Link
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Quoting pcola57:


Cool..it was just a thought..it helped me out tremendously in getting me motivated as I can then begin mentally breaking it down into parts before starting..
I'm on another blog site and works for me very well..
It may not work for you..
It was just a suggestion my friend.. :)


Nah, I appreciate the suggestion.
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African Continent slowing down..

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00Z moves the center in the Eastern Carib then northward along the islands.
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Quoting Barkeep1967:
100's of record lows across the central US on Oct 7th and 8th. No mention but hey Sept was the 23rd warmest lol. GW is a real problem but propaganda and irresponsible journalism pisses me off. Report the whole story not the side you want the Lemmings to follow please.



No mention?
"The first week of October has been one of the coldest weeks of the year, relative to average, with record cold lows outpacing record warm highs by a ratio of four-to-one in the contiguous U.S. However, next week will be warmer than average for the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that October 2012 will rank in the coldest one-third of Octobers on record."

Reading is fundamental?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I've considered it.


Cool..it was just a thought..it helped me out tremendously in getting me motivated as I can then begin mentally breaking it down into parts before starting..
I'm on another blog site and works for me very well..
It may not work for you..
It was just a suggestion my friend.. :)
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Quoting pcola57:


Cory have you tried formatting ahead..that might help..just a thought.. :)


I've considered it. Not sure it'd really work out in the end though.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Somebody motivate me to blog. Kinda tired of doing it so late at night. 70% of the time, Masters has a new blog just a few hours later, which effectively overshadows maximum potential for hits.

Out of all the blogs I've written this year, I'd say only 15% of them have been at a reasonable time.


Cory have you tried formatting ahead..that might help..just a thought.. :)
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256. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


On which island do you live?


St. Lucia but currently based in Trinidad.
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Somebody motivate me to blog. Kinda tired of doing it so late at night. 70% of the time, Masters has a new blog just a few hours later, which effectively overshadows maximum potential for hits.

Out of all the blogs I've written this year, I'd say only 15% of them have been at a reasonable time.
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PRAPIROON



PRAPIROON OSCAT

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100's of record lows across the central US on Oct 7th and 8th. No mention but hey Sept was the 23rd warmest lol. GW is a real problem but propaganda and irresponsible journalism pisses me off. Report the whole story not the side you want the Lemmings to follow please.
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98L:

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00Z NAM

Link

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
Quoting SLU:


Seems to be quite typical of October storms in the NE Caribbean. I remember Jose passed close to me but we got no weather since most of it was on the east side due so SW shear.


On which island do you live?
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
Quoting stormchaser19:


The system is disorganized and that means more west like Ecmwf and CMC are saying . PR and North of Windward island will receive a lot of rain.......This is a big system with moist enviroment all around


That's what I was thinking too. A disorganized system with no real COC is supposed to track more west.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
Quoting CaribBoy:


Impacts, if any.


The system is disorganized and that means more west like Ecmwf and CMC are saying . PR and North of Windward island will receive a lot of rain.......This is a big system with moist enviroment all around
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239. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:
Another one... just east of the Northern Leewards. And NO weather over them.



Seems to be quite typical of October storms in the NE Caribbean. I remember Jose passed close to me but we got no weather since most of it was on the east side due so SW shear.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

As long as shear doesn't get too high 98L should be able to develop. Most models show development and a hit/close call to PR. Hopefully they wouldn't get too severe of impacts.


Nice blog update wx97..
Carribean is the wild card in all this..
And the conus is sure to see some turbulant weather as you pointed out..
Well done young man... :)
PS..your format is just fine as far as I'm concerned..
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A well organized system would be fine

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
Quoting wxchaser97:

As long as shear doesn't get too high 98L should be able to develop. Most models show development and a hit/close call to PR. Hopefully they wouldn't get too severe of impacts.


Impacts, if any.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
Quoting stormchaser19:
Wind Shear doing his job in NE of 98l....Ironically moist environment is his friend, thing that weren't present all the year

As long as shear doesn't get too high 98L should be able to develop. Most models show development and a hit/close call to PR. Hopefully they wouldn't get too severe of impacts.
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Another one... just east of the Northern Leewards. And NO weather over them.

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456


Tropical Storm Klaus (1990) just east of Antigua and Barbuda. NO WEATHER ON THE WEST SIDE.
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Wind Shear doing his job in NE of 98l....Ironically moist environment is his friend, thing that weren't present all the year
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Quoting CaribBoy:


I really hate... 2012
Jeez you just can't seem to win. I thought TUTT's were usually associated with El-Nino weather patterns, at least the positioning of it close to the Eastern Caribbean.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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