98L may develop next week; 97L not a threat to land
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) has a large amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Wind shear is a light to moderate 5 - 15 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Wednesday morning, some slow development is likely until 98L encounters much higher wind shear of 20 - 35 knots Wednesday night though Friday. This shear will be due to an upper-level trough of low pressure centered a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Moisture from 98L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday night. Wind shear may drop to levels capable of allowing 98L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, as predicted by the NOGAPS model. The GFS model predicts shear will remain high until early next week. The GFS develops 98L into a tropical depression on Tuesday, a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Thursday morning. The long range fate of 98L is uncertain; the ECMWF model shows 98L coming close to the U.S. East Coast in ten or so days, while the other models keep 98L far out to sea.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L headed towards the Lesser Antilles Islands.
97L near the Bahamas little threat to develop
A tropical disturbance a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed northeast at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that heavy showers from 97L are affecting portions of the Southeast Bahama Islands, and this activity will continue today. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots over 97L, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Tuesday night. This high shear should prevent 97L from developing as it heads northeastwards out to sea. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Thursday morning. Rains from 97L will not affect the U.S.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks for the updates on 97L and 98L.
Night IR to Vis Loop
Lots and lots of blobs ... ok 2 are invests but the blob in the west Caribbean might be needed to be watched
Flash embedded
Slightly different.
next 5 days...
Nice rain coverage.
and looking at the next 5 days, only the SE US will miss out, except for souther Florida still.
And upper 50s north and in our normally cooler spots away from the water.
Apparently it doesn't qualify as being a disturbance.
Well I'm disturbed about it.
Me too Grothar. Me too.
The chance of El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced over the past fortnight. The tropical Pacific continued its retreat from El Niño thresholds for the second consecutive fortnight (i.e., ocean temperatures cooled), remaining within the neutral range (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels since late July.
Given the rate of ocean cooling, and the continued neutral conditions in the atmosphere, the chance of an El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced further over the past fortnight. However, some risk still remains while the trade winds in the western Pacific continue to be weaker than normal. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology have increased their chances of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remaining at neutral levels, though still warmer than average, for the remainder of 2012.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to return to neutral values during the latter half of the southern spring, according to outlooks from the Bureau%u2019s climate model. The IOD index has been consistently above 0.4 °C since mid-July, indicative of a positive IOD event. A positive IOD is typically associated with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.
1.Consider naming a storm if a storm will make significant impact,ice an snow.
2. Significant disruption to road and air travel.
3. If it was to cause life threatening conditions due to wind, snow, ice and cold.
This will be officially be revealed next week on TWC. There will also be another part to be released in about 2 weeks as it yet to be finalised.
That interesting !!! So it is a marketing exercise , never would have thought that.....
yeah, who would of thunk it. lol
I am completely stunned ...LOL
Also at the NWA conference it was announced new WX Radios will contain GPS locators so it will know where it will be located in the forecast polygon.
Also announced the new GOES-R.
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