Bahamas disturbance 97L little threat; 98L worth keeping an eye on
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops show that heavy showers from 97L are affecting portions of the Bahama Islands, and this activity will continue through Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29.5°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is possible today and Tuesday. However, by Wednesday, 97L will turn to the north and then northeast, encountering high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots. This high shear should be able to destroy 97L. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. Rains from 97L will not affect the U.S.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L just northeast of the Bahamas. Image credit: NOAA.
98L midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is likely until 98L encounters much higher wind shear of 20 - 40 knots Wednesday though Saturday. Moisture from 98L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. On Monday, the GFS model predicts that wind shear will fall low enough for 98L to develop into a tropical depression a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. The NOGAPS model shows some weak support for this idea, but the ECMWF model does not. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20a nd%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_p lots!2012100800!!/
kinda does but as 1007 low maybe a split in the bahamas so fla gets half it looks like
Not really anything though is it?
First Scoopful A Success
From JPL: On the mission's 61st Martian day, or sol (Oct. 7, 2012),NASA's Mars rover Curiosity used its soil scoop for the first time, collecting a scoopful of sand and powdery material at the "Rocknest" site. Imaging verified collection of the sample. The collected material will be used for cleaning interior surfaces of the rover's sample-handling mechanism. It will be held and vibrated inside each chamber of the mechanism before the material is discarded. Curiosity's Collection and Handling for In-Situ Martian Rock Analysis (CHIMRA) device, on the robotic arm, includes the scoop and the mechanism for sieving and portioning samples of soil and powdered rock.
A Sol 61 raw image from Curiosity's left navigation camera, here, shows where the soil collected by the scoop was removed from the ground. The scoop leaves a hole 1.8 inches (4.5 centimeters) wide.
The rover's ability to put scooped and sieved samples of soil into on board laboratory instruments is an important part of the mission. Those instruments -- Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) and Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) -- will play crucial roles in evaluating whether the study area has ever had a favorable environment for microbial life. Still to be used for the first time is the rover's capability to take powdered samples from rocks, using a percussive drill, for delivery to those same instruments.
Sol 61, in Mars local mean solar time at Gale Crater, ended at 11:44 p.m. Oct. 7, PDT (2:44 a.m. Oct. 8, EDT).
WHXX01 KWBC 081826
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC MON OCT 8 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121008 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121008 1800 121009 0600 121009 1800 121010 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.5N 39.1W 9.3N 42.5W 10.3N 45.4W 11.2N 48.3W
BAMD 8.5N 39.1W 8.5N 41.2W 9.0N 43.2W 9.8N 45.0W
BAMM 8.5N 39.1W 8.7N 41.8W 9.2N 44.3W 9.9N 46.6W
LBAR 8.5N 39.1W 8.5N 41.7W 8.7N 44.3W 9.2N 46.5W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121010 1800 121011 1800 121012 1800 121013 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 51.4W 13.5N 58.2W 14.2N 64.7W 13.9N 69.6W
BAMD 10.9N 46.4W 13.4N 48.5W 15.8N 49.8W 17.8N 51.3W
BAMM 10.9N 48.9W 13.2N 53.1W 15.2N 57.0W 17.4N 60.5W
LBAR 9.7N 48.7W 11.6N 52.6W 14.1N 55.9W 17.0N 58.2W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 39.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 8.1N LONM12 = 35.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 32.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Hey .. beggars can't be choosers Mr. :)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
133 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-081845-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
133 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2012
.NOW...
THROUGH 3 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN FORT MYERS BEACH AND CEDAR KEY AND OUT TO
BEYOND 60 NAUTICAL MILES. ALL ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. AT 125 PM...HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WAS OFFSHORE 40
MILES WEST OF PALM HARBOR...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY ACTIVITY
OVER EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY NEAR LORIDA. HEAVY RAINFULL..WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
$$
Indeed....
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST MON OCT 8 2012
PRC051-091-137-143-145-081930-
MANATI PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-DORADO PR-TOA BAJA PR-
231 PM AST MON OCT 8 2012
AT 222 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTH
COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES AROUND 15 MPH.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY QUICKLY REDEVELOP NEARBY
AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.
INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
$$
RAM
08/1745 UTC 24.1N 74.3W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic
Yeah in all seriousness I hope you get some rain though. Nothing worse than a hot, dry and uneventful rainy season.
Thanks a lot :) And yes it has been desperately boring since late july!
Over the whole island chain but worst in the Leewards.
Nadine I know you're in there somewhere :)
I confirm.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST MON OCT 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST TOMORROW. TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
EXTENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.V.I. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
HOWEVER AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TUTT AND ITS MID LEVEL REFLECTION...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID
WEEK...WITH ASSOCIATED AXIS REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY
AS THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE TUTT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
I was certainly expecting at least ONE WORD ON 98L.
Yeah i've been watching the satellite pics all season long and I can't remember the last time I saw a solid mass of convection move over you guys unlike in all other "normal" years.
Still hot and dry down here in Trinidad. (93F today),.
So we are hoping that 98L will get here with some decent rains.
Bring it and come....
Even the UKMET is showing something. Interesting, we'll have to watch this one. Patty isn't a scary name. I doubt anything beyond moderate TS status in any case, rare to have powerful systems from the ITCZ in October.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 9 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 18.4N 133.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T4.0
Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.7N 131.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.2N 130.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.8N 129.4E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 8 2012
========================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Storm "NINA" has intensified as it moves in a West Northwest direction
At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Nina (Prapiroon) [980 hPa] located at 18.5°N 133.8°E or 1,140 km east of Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.
Additional Information
=======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm "Nina" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.
Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area northeast of Virac Catanduanes has dissipated.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
This list in the past never has gotten past Nadine.
Klaus 1984 then 1990.. then more recently Jose in 1999 then Omar in 2008. Not to mention Thomas in 2010...
Several significant systems have affected our general area in october. Though if it does not develop, we'll still be happy to see the rain falling :)
I heard there would be a weak MJO pulse around mid month, but I haven't seen the latest maps. Actually I don't know where to find them.
GFS:
EWP:
Nah !
They could not find a day that was not already a holiday.....
:):))
Viewing: 151 - 201
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index