Bahamas disturbance 97L little threat; 98L worth keeping an eye on

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:06 PM GMT on October 08, 2012

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A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops show that heavy showers from 97L are affecting portions of the Bahama Islands, and this activity will continue through Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29.5°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is possible today and Tuesday. However, by Wednesday, 97L will turn to the north and then northeast, encountering high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots. This high shear should be able to destroy 97L. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. Rains from 97L will not affect the U.S.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L just northeast of the Bahamas. Image credit: NOAA.

98L midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is likely until 98L encounters much higher wind shear of 20 - 40 knots Wednesday though Saturday. Moisture from 98L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. On Monday, the GFS model predicts that wind shear will fall low enough for 98L to develop into a tropical depression a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. The NOGAPS model shows some weak support for this idea, but the ECMWF model does not. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Guam NWS advisory


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 082144
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
800 AM CHST TUE OCT 9 2012

...TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (22W) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON
(22W) WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
132.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

680 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
740 MILES NORTH OF KOROR
850 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
875 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (22W) IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. PRAPIROON
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST
LIKELY BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...17.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
132.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

STANKO


why don't they have the storm pressure?
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367. etxwx
Couldn't resist posting this - off topic but it's amazing.

This is the only fossil ever discovered that shows a spider attacking prey in its web. Preserved in amber, it's about 100 million years old.

100-Million-Year-Old Spider Attack Found in Amber
Mon Oct 8, 2012 03:44 PM ET
Content provided by Megan Gannon, News Editor

Researchers have found trapped in amber a rare dinosaur-age scene of a spider attacking a wasp caught in its web.

The piece of amber, which contains 15 intact strands of spider silk, provides the first fossil evidence of such an assault, the researchers said. It was excavated in a Burmese mine and dates back to the Early Cretaceous, between 97 million and 110 million years ago.

"This juvenile spider was going to make a meal out of a tiny parasitic wasp, but never quite got to it," George Poinar, Jr., a zoology professor at Oregon State University, said in a statement.

"This was a male wasp that suddenly found itself trapped in a spider web. This was the wasp's worst nightmare, and it never ended. The wasp was watching the spider just as it was about to be attacked, when tree resin flowed over and captured both of them."

Poinar and Ron Buckley, an amber collector from Kentucky, described the find in a paper published in the October issue of the journal Historical Biology. They wrote that while there are examples of amber-trapped insects caught in webs, "there is no previous fossil record of a spider attacking its ensnared prey."

The amber chunk also contains the body of another male spider in the same web, which might make the fossil the oldest known evidence of social behavior in spiders, according to the authors.

Both the spider and wasp species are today extinct. But the type of wasp (Cascoscelio incassus) belongs to a group that today is known to parasitize spider eggs, Poinor said. The attack on the wasp by the bristly orb-weaver spider, Geratonephila burmanica, might then be considered revenge.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1660
366. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
Oh sorry wow i was looking at and older pic but that change fast.


No problem, though wind shear is crazy just to the north of the system.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Not really, an anticyclone has formed over 98L and is strengthening.

Oh sorry wow i was looking at and older pic but that change fast.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3685
364. beell
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Muchas gracias, sombrero. Dumped that link because I didn't use it, then couldn't remember which school it was. I refer to that Jon Davies link several times a year. I think I have you to that for that also. OK, enough dumbo from me. Good to see you and Levi chatting.


Good to see Levi, period!
)
Night here soon also.
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Quoting beell:


Here's a nice colorful chart, bf. NAM or GFS on this one. Under the "Surface Products" tab on the right.

College of DuPage Model Page

At about 120 hrs, the cold front, warm front boundaries can be squinted at. With the surface low tucked up under the intersection. The surface low is in fairly close proximity to the mid-level low at 500mb. Maybe some of that "Jon Davies" low-topped supercell action in SE SD-despite marginal instability
Muchas gracias, sombrero. Dumped that link because I didn't use it, then couldn't remember which school it was. I refer to that Jon Davies link several times a year. I think I have you to that thank for that also. OK, enough dumbo from me. Good to see you and Levi chatting.
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361. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
Shear is crazy over our system.


Not really, an anticyclone has formed over 98L and is strengthening.

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98L will be moving west for a long time, the unusually strong october high will keep it going west. by the way the setup looks like Flora of 1963 and to a lesser extent Tomas of 2010. this system will be a hugh rainmaker. residents of the lesser antilles should watch this one very closely.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Not bad, nice convection with 98L. Will be interesting to see just how much west movement it will have.

Shear is crazy over our system.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3685
Stay low, Patty, stay low.
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357. JLPR2
Not bad, nice convection with 98L. Will be interesting to see just how much west movement it will have.

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356. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Good to see you Beell :)

As I understand it, higher surface theta-e doesn't give us the whole picture. What if the theta-e in the mid-troposphere is similar or higher than at the surface? Then you still have a stable atmosphere, even if the surface theta-e is higher than normal. You have to have a healthy negative gradient as you move upward.

A better measure of explosive instability would be the plain theta, or potential temperature. If that remains constant with height, the environmental lapse rate is equal to the dry adiabatic lapse rate. Thus, a negative gradient in theta implies unconditional instability and powerful updraft potential. A negative gradient in theta-e, however, may only imply conditional instability, depending on the moisture content of the low-mid troposphere and that of the air parcel as it rises.


True as far as I understand it! Theta e also considers moisture and its effect on parcel lapse rate.


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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Did you all see this?

Skydiver Eyes Record-Breaking Jump Over NM:

(ROSWELL, N.M.) — Experienced skydiver and extreme athlete Felix Baumgartner hopes to take the leap of his life on Tuesday, attempting the highest, fastest free fall in history....

Link


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High levels of sulphur dioxide detected by satellite images at Nyiragongo volcano in DR Congo
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353. beell
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Never spent much time looking at models r/t severe. Wondering if 2m theta e happens on a model or if you can you only see it on skew-t. What model, where? Also what model where shows me CAPE days out? Maybe sounds dumbo. I usually read SPC's take and then follow the mesoscale pages on game day.

Elevated instability, well, guess when I'm wishing for rain I care about elevated more. Thanks again.


Here's a nice colorful chart, bf. NAM or GFS on this one. Under the "Surface Products" tab on the right.

College of DuPage Model Page

At about 120 hrs, the cold front, warm front boundaries can be squinted at. With the surface low tucked up under the intersection. The surface low is in fairly close proximity to the mid-level low at 500mb. Maybe some of that "Jon Davies" low-topped supercell action in SE SD-despite marginal instability
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
352. etxwx
Quoting txjac:
Wow, turned out and absoletely gorgeous day here in Houston ...loving the cooler weather ...awesome night this evening ...need more like this

Yes indeed. Even with long sleeves, I was actually a bit chilly when the dogs and I went on cow patrol this evening. Are we really in Texas?? It feels so strange! Not that there's anything wrong with that...
:)
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1660
Quoting beell:


Well, look what got flushed out!

KISL..Greater theta-e values imply greater potential instability. No?


Good to see you Beell :)

As I understand it, higher surface theta-e doesn't give us the whole picture. What if the theta-e in the mid-troposphere is similar or higher than at the surface? Then you still have a stable atmosphere, even if the surface theta-e is higher than normal. You have to have a healthy negative gradient as you move upward.

A better measure of explosive instability would be the plain theta, or potential temperature. If that remains constant with height, the environmental lapse rate is equal to the dry adiabatic lapse rate. Thus, a negative gradient in theta implies unconditional instability and powerful updraft potential. A negative gradient in theta-e, however, may only imply conditional instability, depending on the moisture content of the low-mid troposphere and that of the air parcel as it rises.
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350. txjac
Wow, turned out and absoletely gorgeous day here in Houston ...loving the cooler weather ...awesome night this evening ...need more like this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28721
Quoting beell:


There ya' go, bf. Compare 2 meter (above ground level) theta vs your favorite Surface CAPE model. Pretty much the same in footprint.

Except if you're talkin' "Elevated Instability".
Never spent much time looking at models r/t severe. Wondering if 2m theta e happens on a model or if you can you only see it on skew-t. What model, where? Also what model where shows me CAPE days out? Maybe sounds dumbo. I usually read SPC's take and then follow the mesoscale pages on game day.

Elevated instability, well, guess when I'm wishing for rain I care about elevated more. Thanks again.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Did you all see this?

Skydiver Eyes Record-Breaking Jump Over NM:

(ROSWELL, N.M.) — Experienced skydiver and extreme athlete Felix Baumgartner hopes to take the leap of his life on Tuesday, attempting the highest, fastest free fall in history....

Link


I thought the highest, fastest free fall was the UFO that landed in Roswell NM.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28721
346. etxwx
And in the shipping news...here is a feature article from the Korean News Agency (Yonhap) with an overview of the advantages and difficulties of shipping routes through the Arctic.

The model of Hyundai Heavy Industies' ice-breaking iron ore carrier is being tested at a lab in Canada. When fully built, it will be the largest icebreaking-equipped ship in the world.
As Arctic ice melts, shipping companies test new transportation route
By Malte E. Kollenberg
Seoul, Sept. 26 (Yonhap)
Excerpt: Theoretically, the northern seaway offers enormous reduction in cost and shipping time in the long run. It usually takes about two weeks to travel 6,500 sea miles between Korea and Western Europe. Shipping through the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean, on the other hand, takes twice as much time as the route is twice as long.

Yet, there are too many problems to resolve before the region's commercial shipping can truly pick up, not the least of which is the cost. Security and environmental concerns, lack of infrastructure and appropriate ships, legal regulations and permission procedures all contribute to driving up the insurance cost. "I think one can say the shipping and logistics industry is closely watching what is going on in the Arctic," Jan-Gunnar Winther of the Norwegian Polar Institute said.

At Hyundai, workers did more than just watch. Determined that the new transporter is a step in the right direction, company insiders hint that the research and development work has virtually been completed. The route through the Arctic will only become cost efficient if the icebreaking ships are comparable with ordinary transporters plying the Suez Canal. Therefore, the new type of ship has to have a few advantages, research officials say.

The new icebreaker transporter will be able to carry up to 190,000 tons, around double of what commercial counterparts can carry. It will be possible to navigate through ice up to 1.7 meters thick at a speed of up to six knots. Hyundai says doing so will reduce fuel consumption by 5 percent compared to other transporters in the same league. The specifications, Hyundai officials boast, are all in accordance with the company slogan to build the biggest, safest and greenest ships.


Complete article here.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1660
345. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 9 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (970 hPa) located at 17.7N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.0N 130.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 18.6N 129.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.7N 129.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 51078
344. beell
Quoting Levi32:




Theta-e at the surface level by itself does not equate with CAPE at all. You have to compare the Theta-e at the surface with the theta-e at some other level in the middle-atmosphere to get a good idea of the updraft potential for an air parcel pushed to the level of free convection.


Well, look what got flushed out!

KISL..Greater theta-e values imply greater potential instability. No?

I don't think "lift" will be an issue here.

100knot jet streak, 500mb vort max, and if all that fails, the cold front boundary.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Big low Keep....

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
According to ATCF, Olivia weakens to a tropical depression.

EP, 15, 2012100900, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1211W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting beell:


There ya' go, bf. Compare 2 meter (above ground level) theta vs your favorite Surface CAPE model. Pretty much the same in footprint.

Except if you're talkin' "Elevated Instability".


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I very rarely even look at Theta-e because it's pretty much interchangeable with CAPE. I may look at it once in a while on high risk days.


Theta-e at the surface level by itself does not equate with CAPE at all. You have to compare the Theta-e at the surface with the theta-e at some other level in the middle-atmosphere to get a good idea of the updraft potential for an air parcel pushed to the level of free convection.
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97L is going, going...

AL, 97, 2012100900, , BEST, 0, 249N, 753W, 20, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Very interesting facts about October Cyclones affecting Puerto Rico from where 98L is. I found this study in a Puerto Rico forum.

(a) In the years 1954, 1962, 1963, 1974, 1975, 1988, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2005 and 2007, originated in the month of October (sometimes, at the end of September) several disturbances which might have had its origin in the geographical area which is now the "Invest 98L".

(b) Between them, the most powerful seems to have been "Flora", which at the beginning of October 1963 crossed as powerful hurricane on the southern half of the Caribbean. Flora originated in latitude 8 ° N and 33 ° W.

(c) The greater part of these disturbances of October originated in Africa route, have ended up reaching our area (and not exactly to Puerto Rico) as simple storms or depressions.(a) in October, and since 1950, Puerto Rico has not been reached by any hurricane whose name begins with the letter "P" or following.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15724
Quoting caneswatch:


Hi Geoff! How've you been? We certainly will.


Doing good canes. Hope things are well with you! Models seem a 50/50 split on 98L. Will be an interesting week.
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This news calls my attention:

Soon we will have to seriously check the source of all our tech equipment.... and avoid the "made in China" label...

US panel: China tech giants pose security threat
By MATTHEW PENNINGTON | Associated Press – 5 hrs ago


WASHINGTON (AP) — American companies should avoid sourcing network equipment from China's two leading technology firms because they pose a national security threat to the United States, the House Intelligence Committee warned Monday.

The panel said in a report that U.S. regulators should block mergers and acquisitions in this country by Huawei Technologies Ltd. and ZTE Corp, among the world's leading suppliers of telecommunications gear and mobile phones.

Reflecting U.S. concern over cyber-attacks traced to China, the report also recommends that U.S. government computer systems not include any components from the two firms because that could pose an espionage risk.

"China is known to be the major perpetrator of cyber-espionage, and Huawei and ZTE failed to alleviate serious concerns throughout this important investigation. American businesses should use other vendors," the committee's chairman, Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich, told a news conference. He said the Chinese companies could not be trusted with access to computer networks that support everything from power grids to finance systems.....

Link
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334. beell
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Instability is instability.



There ya' go, bf. Compare 2 meter (above ground level) theta vs your favorite Surface CAPE model. Pretty much the same in footprint.

Except if you're talkin' "Elevated Instability".
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Upper low South of Hispanola and the other one to the NE of the Leewards indicating a TUTT is in the area. Let's see if the TUTT stays around when 98L approaches the islands or goes away.


Here in Caguas it's been pouring all afternoon...
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Quoting beell:


I usually just look at 2m and maybe 850mb, bf. In an operational sense, pretty interchangeable with CAPE ( a measure of updraft strength). Theta-e, a measure of the fuel to feed the updraft.
Thank you, bl. I think I got hung up when I read that Theta e decreasing with height = more unstable air column. What you're saying makes some sense. Sometimes I overthink and need to be reminded to KISS. Instability is instability.
:)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I very rarely even look at Theta-e because it's pretty much interchangeable with CAPE. I may look at it once in a while on high risk days.
Thanks. On storm days Theta e is one of the parameters I try to watch on the mesoscale. Guess I was trying to figure if it can be useful days in advance.
;)
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
It is raining--pouring, actually--with lightning and thunder at 50F.

Gotta get used to this again.
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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

..DISCUSSION

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME LATE THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...A CLOSED LOW...MIGRATING INLAND
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MID WEEK...APPEARS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AND
IT IS APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...THE NORTHWESTERN THIRDS OF MISSOURI...IOWA AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

HOWEVER...THIS TIME FRAME ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SPREAD AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA...PARTICULARLY CONCERNING THE
SPEED OF THE UPPER IMPULSE. QUESTIONS ALSO LINGER CONCERNING THE
DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD
BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY PRIOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..KERR.. 10/08/2012
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Loop

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Strike Star US Lightning monitor.
Link
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Upper low South of Hispanola and the other one to the NE of the Leewards indicating a TUTT is in the area. Let's see if the TUTT stays around when 98L approaches the islands or goes away.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15724
Did you all see this?

Skydiver Eyes Record-Breaking Jump Over NM:

(ROSWELL, N.M.) — Experienced skydiver and extreme athlete Felix Baumgartner hopes to take the leap of his life on Tuesday, attempting the highest, fastest free fall in history....

Link
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
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I'd say the BAMM has the best handle on it right now.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8444

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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