Bahamas disturbance 97L little threat; 98L worth keeping an eye on

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:06 PM GMT on October 08, 2012

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A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops show that heavy showers from 97L are affecting portions of the Bahama Islands, and this activity will continue through Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29.5°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is possible today and Tuesday. However, by Wednesday, 97L will turn to the north and then northeast, encountering high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots. This high shear should be able to destroy 97L. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. Rains from 97L will not affect the U.S.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L just northeast of the Bahamas. Image credit: NOAA.

98L midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is likely until 98L encounters much higher wind shear of 20 - 40 knots Wednesday though Saturday. Moisture from 98L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. On Monday, the GFS model predicts that wind shear will fall low enough for 98L to develop into a tropical depression a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. The NOGAPS model shows some weak support for this idea, but the ECMWF model does not. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Relax. Off the coast.

Bermuda could be in trouble, again.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15985
Quoting charlesimages:
Hello all! Does anyone know what's causing this hot spot in the Pacific Ocean? I have pretty much ruled out volcanoes unless it's a new underwater one. I have been checking into satellite imagery as well, and the area is covered by clouds. Any help would be appreciated.

Here is a screenshot of Wundermap.


my guess is it's just an anomaly and nothing to worry about.

Link

Zoom
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15985
whats going on in the atlantic? pretty sure its a four letter word mojo
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Wow 954MB!!
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA...LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Just amazing...


got it from AccuWeather..
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Quoting pottery:


South of Cayman/Jamaica looks interesting as well.
Sure does!!
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Discussion of 98L by Crownweather.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15037
Well, off to another day of teaching. Everyone have a great Tuesday.
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Good Morning, blobs all over the place!
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mornin every1.....sorry i have been gone for close to a month...i got deployed to work Hurricane Isaac claims in Louisiana.....just now wrapping up my 60 claims....


ground observations....overall damage from Isaac was due to flooding in far south louisiana.... wind damages for the most part were not bad, but i did see a lot of claims which were probably due to microbursts.

isaac was very dry but very wet....dumped rain for 50+ hours in the same spots so accumulation was high but Isaac was a very dry storm at the same time.....but homeowners said the storm came and went, came and went.....entrained dry air certainly kept it from being worse....


i wonder if the season is done.....we still have mid 80's across the gulf....

anyone know if conditions will become more conducive to a caribbean born storm or if a wave could make it across (98L)?
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From the San Juan NWS this morning.

..FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SATURDAY. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANY BY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
LATEST SJU-GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATING VALUES
OVER 2.5 INCHES. ALL COMPUTER MODELS AGREED THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ACTIVE AS IT APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
WEEKEND. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER LOCALLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15037
00z EURO more bullish in intensity.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15037
Quoting stoormfury:
Morning 98L continues to move towards the west at about 15mph. Latest sat pics still show an elongated area of low pressure with a 1010mp low low near 9n 44.1w. wind shear is about 5-10 knots at this time with an ULAC in the vicinity of the disturbance. upper level winds will increase as the system moves towards the central lesser antilles.this will inhibit development of the system, at the moment there is only vorticity at the 850mb and 700mb levels, which indicates that the system is not vertically stacked and development will be slow to occur. what is certain that the system will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the lesser antilles starting thursday night and continue all day friday. residents of the lesser antilles including barbados should monitor the progress of this system.


South of Cayman/Jamaica looks interesting as well.
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Morning 98L continues to move towards the west at about 15mph. Latest sat pics still show an elongated area of low pressure with a 1010mp low low near 9n 44.1w. wind shear is about 5-10 knots at this time with an ULAC in the vicinity of the disturbance. upper level winds will increase as the system moves towards the central lesser antilles.this will inhibit development of the system, at the moment there is only vorticity at the 850mb and 700mb levels, which indicates that the system is not vertically stacked and development will be slow to occur. what is certain that the system will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the lesser antilles starting thursday night and continue all day friday. residents of the lesser antilles including barbados should monitor the progress of this system.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2728
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning... could be an interesting weekend for some:


Good morning MA, I saw that and it sure could be interesting. That is one of the things I am writing about right one in my new blog.

Good morning everyone, 98L is looking better and this morning has provided me with beautiful weather.
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Good morning... could be an interesting weekend for some:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8086
Morning/evening, everyone. 98L is looking interesting this morning. It's a balmy 47 degrees here in my part of Louisiana here this morning. I may have to go dig out a jacket this morning.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42951
Good Morning folks! 7-day for Tampa Bay area..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42951
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2012

OLIVIA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING FARTHER
AWAY FROM WHATEVER FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS REMAIN. THE SYSTEM NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS BECOME A REMNANT
LOW. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS OF 2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION SOME TIME TO SPIN
DOWN. CONTINUED SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS NOW BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD...OR
220/6 KT...AROUND A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE
REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A MORE PRONOUNCED TRADE WIND REGIME. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST STILL LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND
IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 15.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 09/1800Z 14.8N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0600Z 14.2N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2012

...OLIVIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 122.0W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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Hello all! Does anyone know what's causing this hot spot in the Pacific Ocean? I have pretty much ruled out volcanoes unless it's a new underwater one. I have been checking into satellite imagery as well, and the area is covered by clouds. Any help would be appreciated.

Here is a screenshot of Wundermap.

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442. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 9 2012
====================================

Vortex over northwest Bay of Bengal centered near 18.5N 86.0E. Center poorly defined in infrared imagery. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Bay of Bengal between 17.0N to 20.0N west of 86.5E, coastal Orissa, extreme northern coast Andhra Pradesh. Scattered weak to moderate convection over rest Orissa.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
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441. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 9 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (970 hPa) located at 17.6N 132.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.1N 131.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.1N 129.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 20.0N 130.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
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440. JLPR2
Half of 98L caught by OSCAT.

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97L still at 10%. 98L up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE BAHAMAS AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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438. wxmod
Sahara dust

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Very Long Range CFS





Possible severe nor'easter.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15985
436. wxmod
Ship trail in North Pacific with aerosol overlay. MODIS Terra image

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.
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433. JLPR2
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think 97L is looking pretty good
it clearly will never be an impressive system but there is definitely some spin and convection seems to be refiring over the center
that might just be an upper level circulation I'm seeing though


Yup, it's 97L's mid-level circulation.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think 97L is looking pretty good
it clearly will never be an impressive system but there is definitely some spin and convection seems to be refiring over the center
that might just be an upper level circulation I'm seeing though


That convection north of Providenciales is not the low-level center.
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I think 97L is looking pretty good
it clearly will never be an impressive system but there is definitely some spin and convection seems to be refiring over the center
that might just be an upper level circulation I'm seeing though
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430. wxmod
Looks like large explosions and soot. North Pacific today. MODIS satellite image

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429. wxmod
Amped out satellite sensor. Close view of north pacific today. MODIS satellite, Aqua.

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.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
427. JLPR2
Quoting allancalderini:
any more storms in the longer range or only that one?


In the very long range there is a low in the CATL.



Also, dang! Where did Bermuda go? :\
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426. wxmod
Close view of an unusual area of north Pacific today. MODIS

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425. wxmod
MODIS satellite photo

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Quoting JLPR2:
The GFS for the second time is showing the system barely the NE of the islands, due to a new vort max developing to the ENE of the current one and taking control.

any more storms in the longer range or only that one?
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423. wxmod
A closer look at the north Pacific. MODIS satellite photo today

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422. JLPR2
The GFS for the second time is showing the system barely the NE of the islands, due to a new vort max developing to the ENE of the current one and taking control.

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421. wxmod
Bizarre satellite image of ship activity on the north Pacific today. MODIS satellite photo.

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WeatherBrains Show 350
This weeks guests, Bryan Norcross of TWC and Bob Ryan of WJLA-TV.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15985
419. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 9 2012
========================================

SUBJECT: Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its intensity as it moves in a westward direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina (Prapiroon) [976 hPa] located at 17.6°N 132.4°E or 1,015 km east of Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Northern and Eastern Seaboard of Luzon due to big waves caused by Typhoon "Nina"

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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354 AussieStorm: High levels of sulphur dioxide detected by satellite images at Nyiragongo volcano in DR Congo

Nyiragongo
and "the most dangerous city in the world"
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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