Bahamas disturbance 97L little threat; 98L worth keeping an eye on
A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops show that heavy showers from 97L are affecting portions of the Bahama Islands, and this activity will continue through Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29.5°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is possible today and Tuesday. However, by Wednesday, 97L will turn to the north and then northeast, encountering high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots. This high shear should be able to destroy 97L. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. Rains from 97L will not affect the U.S.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L just northeast of the Bahamas. Image credit: NOAA.
98L midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is likely until 98L encounters much higher wind shear of 20 - 40 knots Wednesday though Saturday. Moisture from 98L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. On Monday, the GFS model predicts that wind shear will fall low enough for 98L to develop into a tropical depression a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. The NOGAPS model shows some weak support for this idea, but the ECMWF model does not. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index
South of Cayman/Jamaica looks interesting as well.
..FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SATURDAY. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANY BY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
LATEST SJU-GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATING VALUES
OVER 2.5 INCHES. ALL COMPUTER MODELS AGREED THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ACTIVE AS IT APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
WEEKEND. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER LOCALLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW DAYS.
ground observations....overall damage from Isaac was due to flooding in far south louisiana.... wind damages for the most part were not bad, but i did see a lot of claims which were probably due to microbursts.
isaac was very dry but very wet....dumped rain for 50+ hours in the same spots so accumulation was high but Isaac was a very dry storm at the same time.....but homeowners said the storm came and went, came and went.....entrained dry air certainly kept it from being worse....
i wonder if the season is done.....we still have mid 80's across the gulf....
anyone know if conditions will become more conducive to a caribbean born storm or if a wave could make it across (98L)?
Good Morning, blobs all over the place!
Link
got it from AccuWeather..
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 9 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA...LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
my guess is it's just an anomaly and nothing to worry about.
Zoom
Bermuda could be in trouble, again.
The CMC likes to blow up things...
Is that picture the aurora in Northern Ireland?
Link
Random.. Lol.
wow 4 degrees Celsius above normal all along the northern coast of Alaska. Unreal.
Thanks for the info Tomball. Where ever that photo was taken it is indeed a beautiful sight!
Yes indeed..
I agree pottery..
Cold clod tops..squally in an area of high sea temps..
Need to keep an eye on it..
JMO of course.. )
Naaa no MORE things like ERNESTO, TD7 and ISAAC lol
Wow..great pics.. :)
If that does come about, I wouldn't be surprised if there was 2 or maybe, just maybe 3 more systems, cause that's one heck of a strong pulse.
More here
I love the NASA Image of the day.
Here's one from 2007 of the same Volcano.
Great link..thanks for sharing.. :)
BBL
Too bullish but here is one of the 6Z GEFS
Viewing: 451 - 501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index