Bahamas disturbance 97L little threat; 98L worth keeping an eye on

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:06 PM GMT on October 08, 2012

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A tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops show that heavy showers from 97L are affecting portions of the Bahama Islands, and this activity will continue through Tuesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29.5°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is possible today and Tuesday. However, by Wednesday, 97L will turn to the north and then northeast, encountering high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots. This high shear should be able to destroy 97L. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. Rains from 97L will not affect the U.S.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L just northeast of the Bahamas. Image credit: NOAA.

98L midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) has a moderate amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C. With wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday night, some slow development is likely until 98L encounters much higher wind shear of 20 - 40 knots Wednesday though Saturday. Moisture from 98L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. On Monday, the GFS model predicts that wind shear will fall low enough for 98L to develop into a tropical depression a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. The NOGAPS model shows some weak support for this idea, but the ECMWF model does not. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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518. AussieStorm
2:00 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Bay of Bengal could see development.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
517. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:59 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
516. Grothar
1:54 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Mate, you might want to check the date of that.... 25th September 2012. 15days old.


Take another look, it is updating as we speak. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
515. Grothar
1:51 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
514. islander101010
1:50 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
ocean currents just e. of the leewards and windwds move the water north. might help 98 move in a more northernly direction as it approaches.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4583
513. AussieStorm
1:50 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting Grothar:



Small chance of development in the Western Caribbean.


Mate, you might want to check the date of that.... 25th September 2012. 15days old.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
512. fmbill
1:48 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting Grothar:



Small chance of development in the Western Caribbean.



September 25th?
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 455
511. FtMyersgal
1:45 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
510. Grothar
1:42 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
508. Grothar
1:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Small chance of development in the Western Caribbean.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
507. AussieStorm
1:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting unknowncomic:
Caribbean blob alert.


I think that's a T-wave. but I could be wrong.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
506. Dragod66
1:37 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:


quite the spread!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 612
505. Grothar
1:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
503. LargoFl
1:31 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38451
502. unknowncomic
1:29 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Caribbean blob alert.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1919
501. LargoFl
1:29 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38451
500. CaribBoy
1:19 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Trying to wake up the blog lol.

Too bullish but here is one of the 6Z GEFS

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
499. pcola57
1:19 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


More here

I love the NASA Image of the day.


Great link..thanks for sharing.. :)
BBL
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
498. hydrus
1:17 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Strong to very strong MJO pulse coming for the Atlantic basin. We'll probably see more than one storm out of something so strong. I mean, the GFS has been the most accurate in predicting the intensity of the MJO pulses for Octants 1 and 8 this season, and it's nearly off the chart.

Yep, and we are nearing the so called second peak of the season. Plus there is activity in the S.W.Caribbean.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21190
497. AussieStorm
1:16 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


Wow..great pics.. :)


More here

I love the NASA Image of the day.

Here's one from 2007 of the same Volcano.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
496. AussieStorm
1:15 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Think we can squeeze out one more storm. Look at this impressive pulse with the MJO.


If that does come about, I wouldn't be surprised if there was 2 or maybe, just maybe 3 more systems, cause that's one heck of a strong pulse.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
495. pcola57
1:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
When NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula at noon local time (00:00 Universal Time) on October 6, 2012, Shilveluch Volcano was quiet (top image). By the time NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the area two hours later (bottom image), the volcano had erupted and sent a plume of ash over the Kamchatskiy Zaliv. The plume traveled about 90 kilometers (55 miles) toward the south-southeast, where a change in wind direction began pushing the plume toward the east.





Wow..great pics.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
494. CaribBoy
1:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
98L snother Ernesto? Helene? probably. probably not an isaac


Naaa no MORE things like ERNESTO, TD7 and ISAAC lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
493. AussieStorm
1:13 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
When NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula at noon local time (00:00 Universal Time) on October 6, 2012, Shilveluch Volcano was quiet (top image). By the time NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the area two hours later (bottom image), the volcano had erupted and sent a plume of ash over the Kamchatskiy Zaliv. The plume traveled about 90 kilometers (55 miles) toward the south-southeast, where a change in wind direction began pushing the plume toward the east.



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
491. pcola57
1:10 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting pottery:


South of Cayman/Jamaica looks interesting as well.


Yes indeed..
I agree pottery..
Cold clod tops..squally in an area of high sea temps..
Need to keep an eye on it..
JMO of course.. )
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819
489. Paracleet
1:00 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting pottery:


South of Cayman/Jamaica looks interesting as well.
Member Since: September 17, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
488. JNCali
12:49 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting charlesimages:
Hello all! Does anyone know what's causing this hot spot in the Pacific Ocean? I have pretty much ruled out volcanoes unless it's a new underwater one. I have been checking into satellite imagery as well, and the area is covered by clouds. Any help would be appreciated.

Here is a screenshot of Wundermap.

Godzilla? of maybe Al Gore?
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
487. islander101010
12:48 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
98 better hurry up
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4583
485. FtMyersgal
12:47 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I went over to AccuWeather and did some digging but could not come up with the original caption of the picture. My guess is that it could be there or somewhere in Canada.

Beautiful, nonetheless.

EDIT: I'm pretty sure it's Canada. Link


Thanks for the info Tomball. Where ever that photo was taken it is indeed a beautiful sight!
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
484. ILwthrfan
12:46 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I wasn't sure it was correct until I started looking at other ones. I even contacted a few friends. Look at the anomalies North of Alaska and the west coast of Greenland.



wow 4 degrees Celsius above normal all along the northern coast of Alaska. Unreal.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1520
482. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:34 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Krabby Patty

Random.. Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
481. AussieStorm
12:27 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Live Now! - Red Bull Stratos - freefall from the edge of space
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
480. VR46L
12:27 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Images of the Northern lights from the bbc

Link
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
476. wxchaser97
12:16 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
I finished a full tropical and US weather update, check it out.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
475. VR46L
12:14 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
98L ...not looking bad

Link
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
473. FtMyersgal
12:09 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
460. Best picture of the day.


Is that picture the aurora in Northern Ireland?
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
472. GeoffreyWPB
12:04 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
471. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:01 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Strong to very strong MJO pulse coming for the Atlantic basin. We'll probably see more than one storm out of something so strong. I mean, the GFS has been the most accurate in predicting the intensity of the MJO pulses for Octants 1 and 8 this season, and it's nearly off the chart.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
470. stormwatcherCI
12:01 PM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting Abacosurf:
Sure does!!
Good morning. I see that and it does look weird. NHC says it is a surface trough.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
469. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:59 AM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow 954MB!!

The CMC likes to blow up things...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
468. AussieStorm
11:58 AM GMT on October 09, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Relax. Off the coast.

Bermuda could be in trouble, again.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.