El Niño falters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2012

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The progression of oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific towards El Niño has been interrupted by a marked cooling over the past two weeks, and the onset of a full-fledged El Niño event this fall and winter is now in considerable doubt. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific were approximately 0.5°C above average--the threshold for a weak El Niño event--from the beginning of July through mid-September. However, for the past two weeks, these temperatures have fallen to just 0.2°C above average--solidly in the neutral category. In addition, over the past three months, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the Pacific have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño (one exception: some stronger westerly surface winds than usual have developed near New Guinea and Indonesia, which could act to push warm water eastwards towards South America in coming months and tip the ocean more towards El Niño.) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their monthly El Niño discussion, issued October 4, but continued their El Niño watch, giving a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place for the October-November-December period. This is a big reduction from 69% odds given in their September forecast. NOAA's final take on the matter:

Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak. The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

The lack of a progression towards El Niño so far this October means that the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to extend into November, as has been the norm over the past decade. El Niño events tend to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, suppressing hurricane activity. However, the latest 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model shows continued near-average wind shear levels over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic through mid-October. Given the recent faltering of El Niño, I expect that near-average wind shear levels will continue over the tropical Atlantic into November, and that we will see one or two more tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between October 2011 and October 2012 in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific between 5°S - 5°N, 170°W - 120°W (the Niño 3.4 region.) A La Niña episode occurs when SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are 0.5°C cooler than average for an extended period (below the thick blue line.) La Niña conditions were in place between October 2011 - March 2012. El Niño conditions occur when SSTs in the El Niño 3.4 region are more than 0.5°C warmer than average (above the thick red line.) El Niño conditions developed in early July, but have fallen below the threshold for a weak El Niño event over the past two weeks. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Oscar about to meet its Waterloo
Tropical Storm Oscar continues to battle high wind shear, which has exposed the low-level center to view and pushed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's southeast side. Satellite images show a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm is closing in on Oscar, and this front will overtake Oscar Friday night and absorb the storm by Saturday morning. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar. It's looking none too healthy, with the low-level circulation exposed to view, and a cold front to the north beginning to overtake it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. Beginning on Tuesday, we will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda, where the remains of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back on Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1034. VR46L
Quoting spathy:


Is this phenomenon,combined with a cool phase,what caused the great Potato famine?


The great Potato famine , I could write an essay on it yes the potato crop failed due to blight Link but the tragedy of the great potato famine in Ireland was more political and socio-economic reasons .
The native Irish lost their land over a 200 year period when UK planters took their land and leased it back to them at a high rate and the only thing they could afford to grow was the potato so when the potato failed there simply was no food..
Yes a humid wet summer causes blight but it was an overdependence on the potato that was the main reason for the famine

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1032. VR46L
Quoting txjac:
Hmmmm ...an explanation for Britan's rains?

Link

So THAT'S why we've been getting so much rain! Scientists find 'atmospheric rivers' in the sky which hit Britain with 1,000 times more water than the Thames Giant ribbons of moist air flowing north from the tropics bring heavy rain
Some 'rivers' carry as much water as the Amazon

Ribbons blamed for worst 10 winter floods to hit Britain since 1970
Researchers say they are also linked to the country's recent wet summers


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2214192/Sc ientists-atmospheric-rivers-sky-hit-Britain-1-000- times-water-Thames.html#ixzz28eJkwpYe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


Interesting piece but I will be checking other sources on it unfortunately the mail is considered a tabloid newspaper..
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Prapiroon looks good:


Yeah, it's organizing pretty quickly.
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SFN has a live video feed up now.
A historic night for the US space program. This represents that we no longer have to rely on the Europeans and the Russians to supply a space station that 60-70% is paid for by us. Next step is manned flights. SpaceX wants it by 2015.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting spathy:


I am in the SW Fl FT Myers area so The Gulf is Not My cup O tea.
Largo is pref.
But economics has reduced that level of expendable expense.
Fishing has replaced it.
But its all good. Fishing has been great :O)
Not very good visibility in the gulf area.... But I really do like the Ft. Myers area. But it gets so freekin' hot compared to the east coast.
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Prapiroon looks good:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
Quoting spathy:


I am in the SW Fl FT Myers area so The Gulf is Not My cup O tea.
Largo is pref.
But economics has reduced that level of expendable expense.
Fishing has replaced it.
But its all good. Fishing has been great :O)
Used to go to Matlacha and Pine Island years ago... Little fishing but lot's of partying... Have you been to Bert's?
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LIVE updating webcam of Falcon 9. Fueling has started.


During the days of the Saturn, engineers at the launch pad would remark that during fueling the rocket would contract and expand, as if it was alive, breathing and waiting to roar.

The Falcon 9 will within the next 4 years have the honor of sending a man in space with the Dragon capsule that is currently perched on top. Right now it's unmanned, but it is designed to carry men and women and will carry the fire of America's space program.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Weather doesn't look too bad at CCAFS for launch of SpaceX's Dragon capsule tonight. Everything's dissipating as it approaches the cape. ~L-3 hours.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
1018. txjac
Hmmmm ...an explanation for Britan's rains?

Link

So THAT'S why we've been getting so much rain! Scientists find 'atmospheric rivers' in the sky which hit Britain with 1,000 times more water than the Thames Giant ribbons of moist air flowing north from the tropics bring heavy rain
Some 'rivers' carry as much water as the Amazon

Ribbons blamed for worst 10 winter floods to hit Britain since 1970
Researchers say they are also linked to the country's recent wet summers


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2214192/Sc ientists-atmospheric-rivers-sky-hit-Britain-1-000- times-water-Thames.html#ixzz28eJkwpYe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
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What happened to NOAA's MJO page? They haven't updated the page since Thursday.
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At the 18z TAFB Surface Analysis,the wave with low looks well alive with low going down in pressure in 24 hours.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
The Storm Prediction Center will be changing the categories used to create their convective outlooks in 2013. I made a chart to show the revisions. You will note that "See Text" is gone and "Thunder", "Marginal", and "Enhanced" have been added. A 15% tornado probability on a Day 1 outlook is no longer a Moderate risk. You'll probably find some changes as well.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT OLIVIA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE NOW A LITTLE LARGER AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER NEAR THE
CENTER. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT IMPROVED STRUCTURE...A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS
SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT.

OLIVIA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. AFTER
THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK.
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA
BEGINNING TO TILT NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...
AND BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AGAIN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF OLIVIA HAS EITHER JUMPED OR REFORMED TO THE NORTH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
340/5. DESPITE THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW CYCLONE TURNING
WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION....AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.2N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.9N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 17.0N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 16.3N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
Do we have ongoing solar flares???
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Quoting Tazmanian:



Your a little late. It's been there a about a week now

I'm aware it's been around for a while. I'm just posting the latest satellite image of it.
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1011. pcola57
Quoting spathy:


I havent looked at the recent models for 97 but So far it doesnt look like a stall SW of Cuba.

That would be bad.

Not downplaying any possible effect on Central America,all that is considered into things as well.


Your right ..consider all things..
I gotta run off for awhile but I just want to tell you that your avatar picture shows a most amazing tree..very cool.. :)
'till later
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6916
Quoting spathy:


Where were you diving?
And how was the weather and currents?
I am having serious Scuba withdraws.And at this rate,I will have to retake the test for a fourth time if I want to go diving again.
Spathy.......Where are you... Usually I go out of Lake Park Marina in Palm Beach county, but try to make it to Key Largo at least once a month
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DOLPHINS WON....YEAH....TILL NEXT WEEK
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Check out 97L.
Is there a difference? or is still doing the same?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
1006. pcola57
Quoting opal92nwf:

I think it's a long shot as far as intensity goes for 97L to be like Kate. But a track in the general vicinity of Kate's might be plausible. I don't think it will veer SW though.


Yeah I agree with you..it may track simular but that said..it may not have much of a punch if any at all according to the info I've seen ..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6916
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Fingers? You talkin' bout fingers? I smashed my thumb last Saturday while going diving... In between to tanks.. I won't tell you the words I said, BUT it still hurts and I think I will lose my nail... So much for looking beautiful... But I will only have to pay for 9 nails instead of 10... Practicing up on my Vietnamese.
But it was a wonderful dive........ Great visibility....Left from the Lake Park Marina
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Interesting.... Is that the curve of the earth??
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lolol.Well is cool and mysterious.Buuut my computer has crashed so all my other avatars I can't pick them that we're downloaded.
Don`t want to intrude but is that a character of a tv show?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting pcola57:


See post #932..
spathy asked the blog if anyone knew of a storm originating in the same area as 97L..
I looked around and thought Hurricaine Kate was the closest..
What's your take on it?

I think it's a long shot as far as intensity goes for 97L to be like Kate. But a track in the general vicinity of Kate's might be plausible. I don't think it will veer SW though.
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Quoting spathy:


So the man next to you knows if he wants to remain Jolly,you need to remain happy.

I cant even imagine using a phone for this.
My fat fingers can barely hit one key at a time on my laptop.
Fingers? You talkin' bout fingers? I smashed my thumb last Saturday while going diving... In between to tanks.. I won't tell you the words I said, BUT it still hurts and I think I will lose my nail... So much for looking beautiful... But I will only have to pay for 9 nails instead of 10... Practicing up on my Vietnamese.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST SUN OCT 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT/UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
FILL AND MEANDER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF BAHAMAS AND A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC ARE INDUCING A
LONG FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...INCREASING THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANOLA. THIS WEAK LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SW NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT
WILL FORM SOUTH OF MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT...ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SATELLITE
DERIVED BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.1
INCHES. VERY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
GENERATED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL FUEL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE...LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
WILL BACK TO EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...TRADE WIND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.


Lol, I was expecting something MORE INTERESTING TO READ!
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If the GFS varifies then looks like we'll have Patty and Rafeal.Both look to be weak tropical storms but development none the less.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
pcola...Sorry if I called you another name....My ex was Doug


But not this one.


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Check out 97L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting spathy:

Ouch.
Sorry to hear that.
Did you lose all your weather links too?
Yep lost everything.I'm using my phone instead now.So hopefully Santa brings me a new one this year.(Now the man beside me knows good 'n damn well I'm not talking about the Santa in the north Pole.)
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Quoting opal92nwf:
????97L????



See post #932..
spathy asked the blog if anyone knew of a storm originating in the same area as 97L..
I looked around and thought Hurricaine Kate was the closest..
What's your take on it?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6916
I got 5 inch in 2day!! in WPB
Link
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Quoting Grothar:


We still don't know. Now they tell us it wouldn't have made a difference. Old Grothar almost got arrested because I wouldn't let them on the property.


The county here just came down the drainage ditches in my nieghborhood and wanted to cut down the Crepe Myrtle's that line the brick walls along the entrances to our"hood"..
It was because the county was taking over from the prision labor to maintain the ditches..and the brand new shiny machine that the county bought to do the work was too big..so trees were slated to go..
But..the Sheriff was contacted by yours truley and ditches here will continiue to be cut by the prision labor..and Crepe Myrtles stay.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6916
????97L????

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Quoting spathy:


Wash.
You need to change that AVY. Although its a handsome pic.
I keep thinking you are reedzone LOL
Lolol.Well is cool and mysterious.Buuut my computer has crashed so all my other avatars I can't pick them that we're downloaded.
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Quoting pcola57:


I've got 2 ex's and I can't post what they call me.. :)
I know the feeling...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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