El Niño falters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2012

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The progression of oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific towards El Niño has been interrupted by a marked cooling over the past two weeks, and the onset of a full-fledged El Niño event this fall and winter is now in considerable doubt. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific were approximately 0.5°C above average--the threshold for a weak El Niño event--from the beginning of July through mid-September. However, for the past two weeks, these temperatures have fallen to just 0.2°C above average--solidly in the neutral category. In addition, over the past three months, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the Pacific have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño (one exception: some stronger westerly surface winds than usual have developed near New Guinea and Indonesia, which could act to push warm water eastwards towards South America in coming months and tip the ocean more towards El Niño.) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their monthly El Niño discussion, issued October 4, but continued their El Niño watch, giving a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place for the October-November-December period. This is a big reduction from 69% odds given in their September forecast. NOAA's final take on the matter:

Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak. The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

The lack of a progression towards El Niño so far this October means that the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to extend into November, as has been the norm over the past decade. El Niño events tend to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, suppressing hurricane activity. However, the latest 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model shows continued near-average wind shear levels over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic through mid-October. Given the recent faltering of El Niño, I expect that near-average wind shear levels will continue over the tropical Atlantic into November, and that we will see one or two more tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between October 2011 and October 2012 in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific between 5°S - 5°N, 170°W - 120°W (the Niño 3.4 region.) A La Niña episode occurs when SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are 0.5°C cooler than average for an extended period (below the thick blue line.) La Niña conditions were in place between October 2011 - March 2012. El Niño conditions occur when SSTs in the El Niño 3.4 region are more than 0.5°C warmer than average (above the thick red line.) El Niño conditions developed in early July, but have fallen below the threshold for a weak El Niño event over the past two weeks. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Oscar about to meet its Waterloo
Tropical Storm Oscar continues to battle high wind shear, which has exposed the low-level center to view and pushed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's southeast side. Satellite images show a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm is closing in on Oscar, and this front will overtake Oscar Friday night and absorb the storm by Saturday morning. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar. It's looking none too healthy, with the low-level circulation exposed to view, and a cold front to the north beginning to overtake it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. Beginning on Tuesday, we will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda, where the remains of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back on Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Palm Beach Kennel Club. Customer Service Manager, Player's Club Card Manager, Track Handicapper, Track Publicist. Sunday's I do a four-hour internet show.
Very cool.... I have lived in PBC for 30 years and only have been there 3 times..... My logic for betting on the dog was watching which one went #2 before running.... Much lighter then, Wasn't very good logic though
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1083. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And could the child vote?


how about running for president
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1082. LargoFl
Quoting Dakster:


What if they sent a man and women and they had a child born on mars and the child came back... Would that make the child a Martian?
Excellent question, and looking at how they determine origin on birth certificates..i guess the newborn truly would be..martian..an amazing century the next one will be huh
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Quoting Dakster:


What if they sent a man and women and they had a child born on mars and the child came back... Would that make the child a Martian?
And could the child vote?
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Geoff........ I'm sure I would know where you work...Can you give me a hint?


Palm Beach Kennel Club. Customer Service Manager, Player's Club Card Manager, Track Handicapper, Track Publicist. Sunday's I do a four-hour internet show.
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NASA TV coverage is starting!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
1078. Dakster
Quoting LargoFl:
i wonder..IF they did send a guy there..AND..he somehow came back..would he then be..the Man from Mars?


What if they sent a man and women and they had a child born on mars and the child came back... Would that make the child a Martian?
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1077. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
End of the 18z run:



Why you say the 18z GFS run is odd?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
1075. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings

Frost warning
Widespread frost tonight.

Expect widespread frost to develop tonight as temperatures fall to or just below the freezing mark under clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will slowly climb above zero after sunrise on Monday.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What a day at work...Sunday's are the worse...oh well, a looksie at 97L...

Geoff........ I'm sure I would know where you work...Can you give me a hint?
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:





We could! We just couldn't get 'em back.
Wasn't that a Twilight Zone episode?
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End of the 18z run:

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Pad lights are up on the Falcon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
1070. txjac
Spacex launch

Will they illuminate the area or will we be watching the launch in the dark?
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1068. txjac
Quoting Skyepony:


As far as the wet summers I think the big pic is being missed here. There is no polar variably during the summer anymore with the cold anchored on Greenland & the little ice left. Here's a graph generated from 6-1-2012 til 10-7-2012, the height anomalies. High over the cold with a "river" of lower pressure, moisture & rain in a circle around that. South of that pretty dry..


During the winter the new normal seems the opposite with the polar low spilling all over as it can't maintain it self up there with all the heat & water.



Thanks for the info Skye
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What a day at work...Sunday's are the worse...oh well, a looksie at 97L...

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This run seems a little odd to me...

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300:


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1064. LargoFl
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And look at the wave in Eastern Atlantic.
yes watching that one coming in lower,missing that eastbound winds thats keeping 97 from ever developing..next weekend might get interesting if that wave survives the trip.
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1063. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting txjac:
Hmmmm ...an explanation for Britan's rains?

Link

So THAT'S why we've been getting so much rain! Scientists find 'atmospheric rivers' in the sky which hit Britain with 1,000 times more water than the Thames Giant ribbons of moist air flowing north from the tropics bring heavy rain
Some 'rivers' carry as much water as the Amazon

Ribbons blamed for worst 10 winter floods to hit Britain since 1970
Researchers say they are also linked to the country's recent wet summers


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2214192/Sc ientists-atmospheric-rivers-sky-hit-Britain-1-000- times-water-Thames.html#ixzz28eJkwpYe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


As far as the wet summers I think the big pic is being missed here. There is no polar variably during the summer anymore with the cold anchored on Greenland & the little ice left. Here's a graph generated from 6-1-2012 til 10-7-2012, the height anomalies. High over the cold with a "river" of lower pressure, moisture & rain in a circle around that. South of that pretty dry..


During the winter the new normal seems the opposite with the polar low spilling all over as it can't maintain it self up there with all the heat & water.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38199
1062. LargoFl
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1061. atris
Quoting LargoFl:
winds are going to be unfavorable for anything to develop there


It appears to have lost most of its convection at the moment.. the shear is not bad, but as it moves north it will encounter a lot of shear, the key I believe is how soon if ever it will develop and it could be running out of time .
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Quoting LargoFl:
......see..97 doesnt stand a chance, getting sheared by the upper winds, blowing it back into the atlantic


And look at the wave in Eastern Atlantic.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14332
264:


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10 days:

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1057. LargoFl
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204 hours:

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18z GFS 180 hours shows some lower pressures in the southern/eastern Caribbean, we'll see if it develops:

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1054. LargoFl
......see..97 doesnt stand a chance, getting sheared by the upper winds, blowing it back into the atlantic
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1053. LargoFl
Quoting Dakster:


I still fail to see this as a problem...

And Grothar -- behave...
i wonder..IF they did send a guy there..AND..he somehow came back..would he then be..the Man from Mars?
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97L:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1051. LargoFl
Quoting atris:
97l looks to be troubled in funktop loop ..

Link
winds are going to be unfavorable for anything to develop there
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1050. atris
97l looks to be troubled in funktop loop ..

Link
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1049. Dakster
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





We could! We just couldn't get 'em back.


I still fail to see this as a problem...

And Grothar -- behave...
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1048. LargoFl
whew..Ft Meyers are getting hit pretty good rain wise.......
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1047. LargoFl
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1046. VR46L
Quoting txjac:


I agree ...dont always believe what I read on the mail ...however they have some interesting articles. Some of the stuff that I read there makes me go hmmmm ...always check other sites though


Their gossip section is hilarious !!! but not a leading science paper lol.
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1045. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:
As a weak short wave approaches Florida tonight, expect a possible boost in thunderstorms near the coast along Tampa Bay as a possible boundary collision will provide the lift need to tap into the weak upper energy.
Jed if you look a lil north of tampa..you can see the clouds building upwards..going to be alot of boomers in a lil while if they move this way..so far so good by me..no rain at all today
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As a weak short wave approaches Florida tonight, expect a possible boost in thunderstorms near the coast along Tampa Bay as a possible boundary collision will provide the lift need to tap into the weak upper energy.
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1043. LargoFl
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS BEACH...
SANIBEL

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 158 AND 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
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1042. txjac
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SFN has a live video feed up now.
A historic night for the US space program. This represents that we no longer have to rely on the Europeans and the Russians to supply a space station that 60-70% is paid for by us. Next step is manned flights. SpaceX wants it by 2015.


Thanks for the link cyberTeddy
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1041. LargoFl
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1040. txjac
Quoting VR46L:


Interesting piece but I will be checking other sources on it unfortunately the mail is considered a tabloid newspaper..


I agree ...dont always believe what I read on the mail ...however they have some interesting articles. Some of the stuff that I read there makes me go hmmmm ...always check other sites though
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1039. LargoFl
Looking towards tampa and north, those clouds are reaching for the sky, going to be some severe warnings over there..........
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1038. LargoFl
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SFN has a live video feed up now.
A historic night for the US space program. This represents that we no longer have to rely on the Europeans and the Russians to supply a space station that 60-70% is paid for by us. Next step is manned flights. SpaceX wants it by 2015.
teddy i watched a special on Mars..and 2020 they are sending a rover with deep drilling capabilities, they are thinking there is bacteria..LIFE..in the water trapped underground..as it is on earth..IF..they find the bacteria..out the window goes WE are alone in this universe...amazing show it was, history channel2 i think it was..this amazing universe
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1037. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


I can hardly wait...

Would be nice if in my lifetime we could send a person to Mars!


Yes, it would be. I know of a few people I would like to send.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26514
Quoting Dakster:


I can hardly wait...

Would be nice if in my lifetime we could send a person to Mars!





We could! We just couldn't get 'em back.
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1035. Dakster
Quoting CybrTeddy:
LIVE updating webcam of Falcon 9. Fueling has started.


During the days of the Saturn, engineers at the launch pad would remark that during fueling the rocket would contract and expand, as if it was alive, breathing and waiting to roar.

The Falcon 9 will within the next 4 years have the honor of sending a man in space with the Dragon capsule that is currently perched on top. Right now it's unmanned, but it is designed to carry men and women and will carry the fire of America's space program.


I can hardly wait...

Would be nice if in my lifetime we could send a person to Mars!
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1034. VR46L
Quoting spathy:


Is this phenomenon,combined with a cool phase,what caused the great Potato famine?


The great Potato famine , I could write an essay on it yes the potato crop failed due to blight Link but the tragedy of the great potato famine in Ireland was more political and socio-economic reasons .
The native Irish lost their land over a 200 year period when UK planters took their land and leased it back to them at a high rate and the only thing they could afford to grow was the potato so when the potato failed there simply was no food..
Yes a humid wet summer causes blight but it was an overdependence on the potato that was the main reason for the famine

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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