El Niño falters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2012

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The progression of oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific towards El Niño has been interrupted by a marked cooling over the past two weeks, and the onset of a full-fledged El Niño event this fall and winter is now in considerable doubt. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific were approximately 0.5°C above average--the threshold for a weak El Niño event--from the beginning of July through mid-September. However, for the past two weeks, these temperatures have fallen to just 0.2°C above average--solidly in the neutral category. In addition, over the past three months, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the Pacific have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño (one exception: some stronger westerly surface winds than usual have developed near New Guinea and Indonesia, which could act to push warm water eastwards towards South America in coming months and tip the ocean more towards El Niño.) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their monthly El Niño discussion, issued October 4, but continued their El Niño watch, giving a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place for the October-November-December period. This is a big reduction from 69% odds given in their September forecast. NOAA's final take on the matter:

Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak. The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

The lack of a progression towards El Niño so far this October means that the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to extend into November, as has been the norm over the past decade. El Niño events tend to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, suppressing hurricane activity. However, the latest 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model shows continued near-average wind shear levels over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic through mid-October. Given the recent faltering of El Niño, I expect that near-average wind shear levels will continue over the tropical Atlantic into November, and that we will see one or two more tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between October 2011 and October 2012 in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific between 5°S - 5°N, 170°W - 120°W (the Niño 3.4 region.) A La Niña episode occurs when SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are 0.5°C cooler than average for an extended period (below the thick blue line.) La Niña conditions were in place between October 2011 - March 2012. El Niño conditions occur when SSTs in the El Niño 3.4 region are more than 0.5°C warmer than average (above the thick red line.) El Niño conditions developed in early July, but have fallen below the threshold for a weak El Niño event over the past two weeks. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Oscar about to meet its Waterloo
Tropical Storm Oscar continues to battle high wind shear, which has exposed the low-level center to view and pushed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's southeast side. Satellite images show a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm is closing in on Oscar, and this front will overtake Oscar Friday night and absorb the storm by Saturday morning. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar. It's looking none too healthy, with the low-level circulation exposed to view, and a cold front to the north beginning to overtake it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. Beginning on Tuesday, we will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda, where the remains of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back on Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Another one had a hurricane north of the Caribbean Islands. I think we should see something develop in the middle of the month.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
One of the 18z ensemble members:


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
1183. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Any new ASCAT pass over wave in East Atlantic?


ASCAT caught that wave we've been watching. Not quite to 97L yet.

Bolden is talking about launch..I was hoping for Cabana..
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1182. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most of the ensemble members show a strong tropical storm in the NW Caribbean by Oct 20.


18 is the only one showing skill.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Model error for 97L in nm.

Model 0hr 24hr
Name

FIM9 27.6 23.1
AVNO 23.3 28.7
CMC 65.7 46.2
AEMN 29.9 99.7
AP18 40.7 39.1
NAM 46.5 86.1
GFDT 13.7 114.1
GFDL 14.8 122.7
MRFO 50.5 -
BAMS - 148.6
BAMM - 168.9
BAMD - 221.8
CLP5 - 193.2
CLIP - 202.8







Any new ASCAT pass over wave in East Atlantic?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15655
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1179. Skyepony (Mod)
Model error for 97L in nm.

Model 0hr 24hr
Name

FIM9 27.6 23.1
AVNO 23.3 28.7
CMC 65.7 46.2
AEMN 29.9 99.7
AP18 40.7 39.1
NAM 46.5 86.1
GFDT 13.7 114.1
GFDL 14.8 122.7
MRFO 50.5 -
BAMS - 148.6
BAMM - 168.9
BAMD - 221.8
CLP5 - 193.2
CLIP - 202.8





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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
One of the 18z ensemble members:


Most of the ensemble members show a strong tropical storm in the NW Caribbean by Oct 20.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34183
One of the 18z ensemble members:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8294
CRS-1 is in orbit

: )

CRS
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1175. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Slamguitar:
How long does it take to join up with the ISS?


I think 3 days..

The Falcon9 Dragon launch from my neighborhood..



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Quoting Slamguitar:
How long does it take to join up with the ISS?
Three days...on Wednesday.
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Quoting weatherbro:
What force would cause the Global Conveyer Belt to reverse itself???


The button beneath forward?
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1172. Grothar
Quoting weatherbro:
What force would cause the Global Conveyer Belt to reverse itself???


Someone pushing the wrong button.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28049
Quoting Autistic2:


I thought it was the GFS that had that feedback problem?
It has done pretty well this season with the upgrade it have.
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1170. ncstorm
Courtesy of WWAY TV3..funnel cloud in Leland, NC today..

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It not over Did you see the 18Z GFS!!


I thought it was the GFS that had that feedback problem?
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Quoting Autistic2:
It seems rather early for the season to be over already. Nothing in the Atlantic anywhere. If not for never ending Nadine it would have been over sooner?

The season is most likely not over, we still got time for another storm. GFS has been indicating that conditions will be favorable for a storm to form.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
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1164. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 8 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (985 hPa) located at 17.8N 135.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.6N 132.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.6N 131.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 18.4N 130.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
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It not over Did you see the 18Z GFS!!
Quoting Autistic2:
It seems rather early for the season to be over already. Nothing in the Atlantic anywhere. If not for never ending Nadine it would have been over sooner?
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1162. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28049
What force would cause the Global Conveyer Belt to reverse itself???
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It seems rather early for the season to be over already. Nothing in the Atlantic anywhere. If not for never ending Nadine it would have been over sooner?
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Olivia still has a chance to make it to a hurricane
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
1158. Dakster
Looking good for spacex. Will be even better when they transport people.
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what are the chances of this happening i know its long range so chnaces are probably low.
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1156. etxwx
Those nighttime launches are spectacular, aren't they? I grew up watching everything from Mercury to Apollo and the Shuttles. It's exciting to see a launch again.
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How long does it take to join up with the ISS?
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would of gotten political if it failed. glad it seems like a success
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The launch was successful :)
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spacex it was not bad cloudy e cen florida
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Gorgeous view of the Falcon 9 on the pad. Chances of weather violation down to 20%.
It's beautiful and eventually I want to go see one of these launches.
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what does everyone think the chances of patty potentialy forming in the nw caribean and going north into the gulf of mexico.
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Current Eumetsat image Central Atl'

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GFS 372 hrs. is this one of those times where the GFS suffers from convective feedback? I mean the 2 systems in the Caribbean are in the same envelope of low pressure. I still favor Western Caribbean for development because it's a climitalogically favored spot for development during the month of October.

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The only thing that gets me as excited as a hurricane is a good space launch!!! Godspeed Falcon/Dragon!!
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All systems go.
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1145. Patrap
Not near as awesome though..

: )



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133362
1144. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It hailed forever here. The lightning was really bad...and still is. When a lightning strikes the ground and doesn't lift up for 5 seconds, you know there's a lot of instability. :P


I havent been online today but the bottom fell out while I was in town..WWAY said funnel clouds were reported in Leland with some damage over there today..and its still storming off and on..
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Quoting ncstorm:
Intense lightening associated with these storms today and funnel clouds with damage to some of the areas..


It hailed forever here. The lightning was really bad...and still is. When a lightning strikes the ground and doesn't lift up for 5 seconds, you know there's a lot of instability. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34183
Little known fact is they've pumped the F9 up with kerosene and Liquid Oxygen, same fuel used on the Saturn V, so the flame is similar in color and intensity.
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1141. ncstorm
Intense lightening associated with these storms today and funnel clouds with damage to some of the areas..

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1140. bappit
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Not inside the building. Only outside. Did you know there is an item on the election ballot to allow slot machines at the track?

Once upon an eon, Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge was a beautiful place to watch football on Saturday nights. Games didn't start until 8 PM and there were no cable broadcasts with interminable commercial breaks. With that start time and stable cool air masses wafting in each fall, the bourbon fumes and cigarette smoke remained in situ. Games through the core of the SEC schedule often were observed through a haze. I think they've since banned smoking inside the stadium which is good. They have also cut down on drunkenness and fights, but ahhh, to be six years old running through the crowd again.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6185
1139. txjac
I fear you will all have to tell me about the lift off ...my daughter decided tonight is the night that I must meet her new boyfriend. Bites as I have been watching for last two hours.

Enjoy it for me guys and tell me all about it when I get back!

You know, as I type this I realize that I come her more for the companionship than I do the weather ...thanks guys for always making me feel welcomed and for the entertainment!
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1138. Patrap
NASA TV Launch Live
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133362
1137. Patrap
NASA Live


'Everything is Looking Real Good for Launch'
Sun, 07 Oct 2012 06:42:31 PM CDT

The weather forecast for tonight's liftoff has improved to an 80 percent chance of acceptable conditions at the 8:35 p.m. EDT launch time. There are no technical problems with the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket nor with the Dragon capsule loaded with cargo bound for the International Space Station. "Everything is looking real good for launch this evening," NASA Launch Commentator Mike Curie said. The rocket is to launch from Space launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla., which is adjacent to NASA's Kennedy Space Center.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133362
Quoting wxchaser97:



Here is the link to the 18z, here.
Quoting Civicane49:


Link.
Thanks both of you Patty might become the 2 major if conditions allow it.
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Tropical Storm Olivia:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The Sun is up on a developing typhoon in the West Pacific:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8294

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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