El Niño falters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2012

Share this Blog
48
+

The progression of oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific towards El Niño has been interrupted by a marked cooling over the past two weeks, and the onset of a full-fledged El Niño event this fall and winter is now in considerable doubt. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific were approximately 0.5°C above average--the threshold for a weak El Niño event--from the beginning of July through mid-September. However, for the past two weeks, these temperatures have fallen to just 0.2°C above average--solidly in the neutral category. In addition, over the past three months, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the Pacific have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño (one exception: some stronger westerly surface winds than usual have developed near New Guinea and Indonesia, which could act to push warm water eastwards towards South America in coming months and tip the ocean more towards El Niño.) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their monthly El Niño discussion, issued October 4, but continued their El Niño watch, giving a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place for the October-November-December period. This is a big reduction from 69% odds given in their September forecast. NOAA's final take on the matter:

Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak. The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

The lack of a progression towards El Niño so far this October means that the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to extend into November, as has been the norm over the past decade. El Niño events tend to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, suppressing hurricane activity. However, the latest 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model shows continued near-average wind shear levels over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic through mid-October. Given the recent faltering of El Niño, I expect that near-average wind shear levels will continue over the tropical Atlantic into November, and that we will see one or two more tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between October 2011 and October 2012 in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific between 5°S - 5°N, 170°W - 120°W (the Niño 3.4 region.) A La Niña episode occurs when SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are 0.5°C cooler than average for an extended period (below the thick blue line.) La Niña conditions were in place between October 2011 - March 2012. El Niño conditions occur when SSTs in the El Niño 3.4 region are more than 0.5°C warmer than average (above the thick red line.) El Niño conditions developed in early July, but have fallen below the threshold for a weak El Niño event over the past two weeks. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Oscar about to meet its Waterloo
Tropical Storm Oscar continues to battle high wind shear, which has exposed the low-level center to view and pushed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's southeast side. Satellite images show a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm is closing in on Oscar, and this front will overtake Oscar Friday night and absorb the storm by Saturday morning. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar. It's looking none too healthy, with the low-level circulation exposed to view, and a cold front to the north beginning to overtake it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. Beginning on Tuesday, we will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda, where the remains of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back on Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 784 - 734

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Blog update on Olivia.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
Lol that's funny to see some bloggers disappearing when the GFS doesn't show a WCARIB storm.


Either one could happen at this point, really. No reason to favor one over the other (although climatology tends to like the western Caribbean scenario).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

The one that cause all the flooding in and north of Manila?

Typhoon Saola
Saola caused widespread rains in the Philippines due to the enhancement of the southwest monsoon. On July 29, domestic and international flights throughout the country were delayed and cancelled. Small fishing crafts were advised to not engage in the water as a gale warning was issued by PAGASA. The NDRRMC alerted their agency as the storm is expected to bring heavy rains. Seaports were also advised to cancel their trips. Flooding is imminent as different dams are expected to reach its critical level and possibly release huge millimeters of water. About three roads in northern Luzon were impassable due to floods and landslides. About sixty families in Rodriguez, Rizal were evacuated due to severe flooding in the area. Early on July 30, classes were suspended from pre-school to tertiary level as strong winds and severe rainfall were recorded throughout Metro Manila and nearby provinces.
Initial reports spoke of around a dozen confirmed casualties, yet early on 3 August Philippine authorities revised the death toll in the country to 37, with at least 519,000 people affected. More than 17,500 were staying in evacuation centers. As of August 6, 51 fatalities were confirmed in the Philippines with six others reported missing. Damage from the storm amounted to about %u20B1404 million (US$9.6 million), half of which was due to agricultural losses.


I think he is refering to Haikui.
Although located hundreds of kilometres away from the Philippines, the southerly flow from Typhoon Haikui enhanced the southwest monsoon across much of Luzon.[25] As a result, widespread heavy rains impacted regions still recovering from deadly floods triggered by Typhoon Saola less than a week earlier.[11] During a 72 hour span from 6%u20138 August, 1,007 mm (39.6 in) of rain fell in parts of Metro Manila, leading local media to compare the event to Typhoon Ketsana in 2009, which killed 464 in the city.[26] Some of the most severe flooding took place along the Marikina River, which swelled to near-record levels. During the afternoon of 7 August, the river reached a height of 20.6 m (68 ft), well beyond the flood level of 16 m (52 ft) and about 3 m (9.8 ft) below the record level set during Typhoon Ketsana. About 70 percent of Metro Manila were affected by flooding.[27] Some areas were submerged in up to 3 m (9.8 ft).[28] Due to the expanding floods, officials in the city evacuated more than 23,000 residents from flood-prone areas and relocated them to shelters set up across the area.[27] According to a reporter from the British Broadcasting Corporation, many residents were reluctant to leave their belongings behind, and some traveled back through flood waters to retrieve their belongings. Officials feared the flooding could worsen as the La Mesa Dam continued to overflow by then.[29] At least nine people were killed and four others were injured in a landslide in Quezon City.[30]
Numerous schools in Metro Manila, Central Luzon, and CALABARZON had suspended classes.[30] As a precautionary measure, officials cut power to some areas of National Capital Region (NCR).[29] At least 250,000 people left their homes as flooding covered more than a third of the city. The head of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) compared the deluge to the Kevin Costner film Waterworld.[31]
In response to the flooding, the NDRRMC allocated approximately %u20B113 million (US$311,000) worth of relief funds and deployed 202 personnel to assist in search and rescue missions.[25] The search and rescue missions were hampered by strong currents in flooded streets.[29] Philippine President Benigno Aquino ordered officials to maximize the effort on rescuing and aiding affected residents.[28]Throughout the Philippines, a total of 89 people have been confirmed dead while 7 others are listed as missing. In terms of damage, a total of 8,428 homes were destroyed and another 6,706 were damaged. Losses throughout the country amounted to at least %u20B1604.63 million (US$14.31 million).[36]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol that's funny to see some bloggers disappearing when the GFS doesn't show a WCARIB storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I dunno. I just remember it hit a few months ago. Actually, I don't even think it made landfall in the Philippines, but I could be remembering wrong.

The one that cause all the flooding in and north of Manila also flooded my wife's village in 3ft of water and 1-2 inches from making it into our house.

Typhoon Saola

Saola caused widespread rains in the Philippines due to the enhancement of the southwest monsoon. On July 29, domestic and international flights throughout the country were delayed and cancelled. Small fishing crafts were advised to not engage in the water as a gale warning was issued by PAGASA. The NDRRMC alerted their agency as the storm is expected to bring heavy rains. Seaports were also advised to cancel their trips. Flooding is imminent as different dams are expected to reach its critical level and possibly release huge millimeters of water. About three roads in northern Luzon were impassable due to floods and landslides. About sixty families in Rodriguez, Rizal were evacuated due to severe flooding in the area. Early on July 30, classes were suspended from pre-school to tertiary level as strong winds and severe rainfall were recorded throughout Metro Manila and nearby provinces.
Initial reports spoke of around a dozen confirmed casualties, yet early on 3 August Philippine authorities revised the death toll in the country to 37, with at least 519,000 people affected. More than 17,500 were staying in evacuation centers. As of August 6, 51 fatalities were confirmed in the Philippines with six others reported missing. Damage from the storm amounted to about %u20B1404 million (US$9.6 million), half of which was due to agricultural losses.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

00Z NOGAPS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Well now, a weak system in the vicinity of PR by the 16th, I can handle that. It would be nice to fill September's rain deficit.



Weak winds but possibly TORRENTIAL RAINS lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
777. JLPR2
Well now, a weak system in the vicinity of PR by the 16th, I can handle that. It would be nice to fill September's rain deficit.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
you mean Haikou?


I unno. I just remember it hit a few months ago. Actually, I don't even think it made landfall in the Philippines, but I could be remembering wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
97L:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:


Also, there are many poor areas even amongst the more developed nations in that basin. For example, I recall earlier this year the government forcibly razing several of the slums in Manila, claiming that it had exacerbated the flooding caused by a previous tropical storm whose name I am failing to remember. In most cases, the vast majority of deaths in the western Pacific seem to come from more remote villages embedded within the larger countries.

It is not surprising that people die in areas where money and development is relatively scarce.
you mean Haikou?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
people how is 97L doing? I see is firing convection might stay at 10% at 2am and be at 20% at 8am if it becomes better organized.















That big ball of convection to the east of Grand Bahama is not associated with the surface vortmax.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrikanEB:




I don't routinely follow the Pacific storms, nor am I familiar with their agency, but just going by the numbers that you've posted, I don't see anything abnormal about those kinds of figures.. granted that 472 is a lot of people regardless. But I mean, for 20 storms, 13 hurricanes, and 7 majors.. 472 is actually pretty low.

Just look at some of the Atlantic stats:
2008: 855 direct, 192 indirect
2007: 394 direct, 29 indirect
2005: 3,913 total
2004: 3000

Although improvements to the warning system are always beneficial, I wouldn't necessarily use this years figures as my sole basis for that kind of critique.


Also, there are many poor areas even amongst the more developed nations in that basin. For example, I recall earlier this year the government forcibly razing several of the slums in Manila, claiming that it had exacerbated the flooding caused by a previous tropical storm whose name I am failing to remember. In most cases, the vast majority of deaths in the western Pacific seem to come from more remote villages embedded within the larger countries.

It is not surprising that people die in areas where money and development is relatively scarce. When you consider that, the death toll of 400 is not that impressive relative to the number of named storms and impacts to land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
. . . I really wish the WPAC had a better tropical cyclone tracking agency... Seriously. If they had a good agency like the NHC over in that basin maybe there wouldn't be so many deaths and issues over there... I mean seriously, it's the most active basin, with the most land masses threatened, and yet their tracking agency is much worse than ours...

. . .All I'm saying is someone, whether it be me, in the future, or a member of our NHC. Someone needs to replace the Joint Typhoon Center... Or make it ALOT better...


The official RSMC for the WPAC is the Japan Meteorological Agency, not the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:

At the Heart of Orion
Credit: Image Data - Hubble Legacy Archive, Processing - Robert Gendler

Explanation: Near the center of this sharp cosmic portrait, at the heart of the Orion Nebula, are four hot, massive stars known as the Trapezium. Gathered within a region about 1.5 light-years in radius, they dominate the core of the dense Orion Nebula Star Cluster. Ultraviolet ionizing radiation from the Trapezium stars, mostly from the brightest star Theta-1 Orionis C powers the complex star forming region's entire visible glow. About three million years old, the Orion Nebula Cluster was even more compact in its younger years and a recent dynamical study indicates that runaway stellar collisions at an earlier age may have formed a black hole with more than 100 times the mass of the Sun. The presence of a black hole within the cluster could explain the observed high velocities of the Trapezium stars. The Orion Nebula's distance of some 1500 light-years would make it the closest known black hole to planet Earth.
Very interesting, Skye. Not so much the "black hole" as that image. Resembles human heart tissue, somewhat diseased. I don't think I buy the black hole explanation of the "high velocities of the Trapezium stars" but I do like the mystery of the four stars and the human heart connection. Hmmm. And new stars come from here. Hmmm. Thanks for posting that. G'Nite.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
people how is 97L doing? I see is firing convection might stay at 10% at 2am and be at 20% at 8am if it becomes better organized.













Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
According to this GFS run it could be an extreme rain maker.

Lets wait and see.



And we are almost no longer into fantasy land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The system is looking more and more like OMAR (same area and SAME TIME FRAME WOW)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
According to this GFS run it could be an extreme rain maker.

Lets wait and see.
Quoting CaribBoy:


I hope so :) Lol imagine we get 2 or 3 months of rain in just 48-72hours. 00Z GFS is insane as regards rain over my general area.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
CaribBoy
You might finally get some rain and wind



I hope so :) Lol imagine we get 2 or 3 months of rain in just 48-72hours. 00Z GFS is insane as regards rain over my general area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MMMM
another slow mover
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
. . . I really wish the WPAC had a better tropical cyclone tracking agency... Seriously. If they had a good agency like the NHC over in that basin maybe there wouldn't be so many deaths and issues over there... I mean seriously, it's the most active basin, with the most land masses threatened, and yet their tracking agency is much worse than ours...

. . .All I'm saying is someone, whether it be me, in the future, or a member of our NHC. Someone needs to replace the Joint Typhoon Center... Or make it ALOT better...


Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Maybe if the had a more ORGANIZED warning system and a more ORGANIZED intensity system in use, there wouldn't be 472 deaths so far this season, and maybe more near 150-200 or hopefully less...


I don't routinely follow the Pacific storms, nor am I familiar with their agency, but just going by the numbers that you've posted, I don't see anything abnormal about those kinds of figures.. granted that 472 is a lot of people regardless. But I mean, for 20 storms, 13 hurricanes, and 7 majors.. 472 is actually pretty low.

Just look at some of the Atlantic stats:
2008: 855 direct, 192 indirect
2007: 394 direct, 29 indirect
2005: 3,913 total
2004: 3000

Although improvements to the warning system are always beneficial, I wouldn't necessarily use this years figures as my sole basis for that kind of critique.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CaribBoy
You might finally get some rain and wind

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Omar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

The Philippines is closing very fast on 100 million population. Japan is 126 million. Taiwan is 26 million. Most people live on the coast in Japan and Taiwan, In the Philippines people live anywhere they can build even with a few sheets of tin roofing under power line stanchions, they also build right beside creeks and rivers that are clogged with rubbish and street drains are always blocked with rubbish and muck. I've seen it with my own eyes, very saddening. 1 quick down pour and roads in Manila flood to about 6inches.


According to my friend who was born in Manila, building codes in the Philippines are very strict, although this is obviously not the case with poor neighborhoods.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Tropical Depression 30W has formed from Invest 99W.

This system could be the next BIG one in the WPAC.

I really wish the WPAC had a better tropical cyclone tracking agency... Seriously. If they had a good agency like the NHC over in that basin maybe there wouldn't be so many deaths and issues over there... I mean seriously, it's the most active basin, with the most land masses threatened, and yet their tracking agency is much worse than ours...


ATL Numbers:
15-8-1
73 Deaths
2.33 Billion dollars in damage.

WPAC Numbers:
20-13-7
472 Deaths
3.36 Billion dollars in damage.



All I'm saying is someone, whether it be me, in the future, or a member of our NHC. Someone needs to replace the Joint Typhoon Center... Or make it ALOT better...

The Philippines is closing very fast on 100 million population. Japan is 126 million. Taiwan is 26 million. Most people live on the coast in Japan and Taiwan, In the Philippines people live anywhere they can build even with a few sheets of tin roofing under power line stanchions, they also build right beside creeks and rivers that are clogged with rubbish and street drains are always blocked with rubbish and muck. I've seen it with my own eyes, very saddening. 1 quick down pour and roads in Manila flood to about 6inches.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Tropical Depression 23W has formed from Invest 99W.

This system could be the next BIG one in the WPAC.

I really wish the WPAC had a better tropical cyclone tracking agency... Seriously. If they had a good agency like the NHC over in that basin maybe there wouldn't be so many deaths and issues over there... I mean seriously, it's the most active basin, with the most land masses threatened, and yet their tracking agency is much worse than ours...


ATL Numbers:
15-8-1
73 Deaths
2.33 Billion dollars in damage.

WPAC Numbers:
20-13-7
472 Deaths
3.36 Billion dollars in damage.



All I'm saying is someone, whether it be me, in the future, or a member of our NHC. Someone needs to replace the Joint Typhoon Center... Or make it ALOT better...

Maybe if the had a more ORGANIZED warning system and a more ORGANIZED intensity system in use, there wouldn't be 472 deaths so far this season, and maybe more near 150-200 or hopefully less...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meantime....

Portugese Man-O-War jellyfish are coming ashore in the UK.

Most unusual, but the Coast Guard there is saying that there have been more frequent episodes of warmer water reaching the coast of the UK.

Strange, huh?

(found on RSOE AlertMap, Global)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Depression 23W has formed from Invest 99W.

This system could be the next BIG one in the WPAC.

I really wish the WPAC had a better tropical cyclone tracking agency... Seriously. If they had a good agency like the NHC over in that basin maybe there wouldn't be so many deaths and issues over there... I mean seriously, it's the most active basin, with the most land masses threatened, and yet their tracking agency is much worse than ours...


ATL Numbers:
15-8-1
73 Deaths
2.33 Billion dollars in damage.

WPAC Numbers:
20-13-7
472 Deaths
3.36 Billion dollars in damage.



All I'm saying is someone, whether it be me, in the future, or a member of our NHC. Someone needs to replace the Joint Typhoon Center... Or make it ALOT better...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
754. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
12:00 PM JST October 7 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.3N 138.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.0N 135.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44463
Quoting Progster:


looks like good cyclogenesis potential over the SE (nice jet)

you talking about this nasty big east coast low that's heading towards New Zealand.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Check out the huge eye on this anti-cyclone above the Northern Territory, Australian.



looks like good cyclogenesis potential over the SE (nice jet)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Back on my laptop.

The 0Z and 12z GFS seem to want to develop the Caribbean storm in the West Caribbean while the 06Z and 18Z develop it sooner in the Central Caribbean. Given the history of that area, I doubt it develops that early. Something to watch for sure.


Please don't start posting his stuff here...


3 month forecasts of kilometer scale phenomena...amazing beyond belief :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Check out the huge eye on this anti-cyclone above the Northern Territory, Australian.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Kevin Martin? Where's he broadcast from?
:)

Saw his thoughts and also the talk earlier about severe potential for next weekend. Not much, maybe, but today's very early morning Day 4-8 from SPC has not written off the California closed low scenario or a regional severe outbreak.

Might be something to keep an eye on in coming days.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2012

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
06/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOSED LOW
...MIGRATING INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL FINALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS...A PERSISTENT PRECEDING CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
SERIES OF SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD INTRUSIONS TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. AND THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES MAY BE SUCH THAT THIS IS
INHIBITED. ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PROBABILITIES FOR
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEAR LOW...WHICH LIKELY
CORRESPONDS TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.

..KERR.. 10/06/2012

Hope you all have a good night.

exactly, Maybe people should give him some credit even if it's only 1%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
GOES 14 adjustment is noticeable, no more deformed blobs in the CATL.

Here is the TW that was showed sparking development in the Caribbean.



It is certainly looking GOOD. If it does DEVELOP, I'm wondering WHERE it will DO so.. and where will it GO. THE WEST CARIB DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE ONLY AREA TO WATCH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
This guy again? The anti-government crank who claims that TWC "stole" his idea of naming winter storms? The nut who runs a "chemtrail forecasting" page? The guy who has been banned from all NWS/NOAA websites because of his "stalkerish" behavior? Meh. Martin is certainly allowed to make wild--and wildly wrong--forecasts; he's not alone in doing so. But he'll have to prove meteorological skill before I buy into any of his weather prognostications...

(BTW: if you're going to post verbatim articles from external websites, you should always do so with permission, full attribution, and links back to the source.)

Neo, you fully know where to find it, why don't you do what your very good at and investigate. I have now link the articles.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Back on my laptop.

The 0Z and 12z GFS seem to want to develop the Caribbean storm in the West Caribbean while the 06Z and 18Z develop it sooner in the Central Caribbean. Given the history of that area, I doubt it develops that early. Something to watch for sure.


Please don't start posting his stuff here...

Why not, it's relevant weather information. This is what this blog is about, right, sharing information no matter what the source. If you don't like the source the discount it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's OK.
Gro has Enlightened me.
I am Aware.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why... You cowards are afraid to say Niagara Falls...
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1257
97L getting some big convection in the past hour.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kevin Martin? Where's he broadcast from?
:)

Saw his thoughts and also the talk earlier about severe potential for next weekend. Not much, maybe, but today's very early morning Day 4-8 from SPC has not written off the California closed low scenario or a regional severe outbreak.

Might be something to keep an eye on in coming days.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SAT OCT 06 2012

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
06/00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT THE CLOSED LOW
...MIGRATING INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL FINALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS...A PERSISTENT PRECEDING CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
SERIES OF SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD INTRUSIONS TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. AND THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES MAY BE SUCH THAT THIS IS
INHIBITED. ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PROBABILITIES FOR
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEAR LOW...WHICH LIKELY
CORRESPONDS TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.

..KERR.. 10/06/2012

Hope you all have a good night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nope...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Kevin Martin = Niagara Falls

Sorry.
It's late.
I was not aware of the Importance of his statement.

Or maybe I'm just not as old as you guys, tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Careful Pottery....

whatever you do, don't mention " N-i-a-g-r-a F-a-l-l-s"


Did you say N-i-a-g-a-r-a F-a-l-l-s??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Careful Pottery....

whatever you do, don't mention " N-i-a-g-r-a F-a-l-l-s"

Why not ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
737. JLPR2
GOES 14 adjustment is noticeable, no more deformed blobs in the CATL.

Here is the TW that was showed sparking development in the Caribbean.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kevin Martin = Niagara Falls
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10928
Quoting pottery:

Slow-Dancing by yourself ????


Careful Pottery....

whatever you do, don't mention " N-i-a-g-r-a F-a-l-l-s"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
inch by inch...


Don't tell me you work for the Susquehanna Hat Company.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 784 - 734

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.