El Niño falters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2012

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The progression of oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific towards El Niño has been interrupted by a marked cooling over the past two weeks, and the onset of a full-fledged El Niño event this fall and winter is now in considerable doubt. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific were approximately 0.5°C above average--the threshold for a weak El Niño event--from the beginning of July through mid-September. However, for the past two weeks, these temperatures have fallen to just 0.2°C above average--solidly in the neutral category. In addition, over the past three months, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the Pacific have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño (one exception: some stronger westerly surface winds than usual have developed near New Guinea and Indonesia, which could act to push warm water eastwards towards South America in coming months and tip the ocean more towards El Niño.) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their monthly El Niño discussion, issued October 4, but continued their El Niño watch, giving a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place for the October-November-December period. This is a big reduction from 69% odds given in their September forecast. NOAA's final take on the matter:

Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak. The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

The lack of a progression towards El Niño so far this October means that the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to extend into November, as has been the norm over the past decade. El Niño events tend to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, suppressing hurricane activity. However, the latest 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model shows continued near-average wind shear levels over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic through mid-October. Given the recent faltering of El Niño, I expect that near-average wind shear levels will continue over the tropical Atlantic into November, and that we will see one or two more tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between October 2011 and October 2012 in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific between 5°S - 5°N, 170°W - 120°W (the Niño 3.4 region.) A La Niña episode occurs when SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are 0.5°C cooler than average for an extended period (below the thick blue line.) La Niña conditions were in place between October 2011 - March 2012. El Niño conditions occur when SSTs in the El Niño 3.4 region are more than 0.5°C warmer than average (above the thick red line.) El Niño conditions developed in early July, but have fallen below the threshold for a weak El Niño event over the past two weeks. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Oscar about to meet its Waterloo
Tropical Storm Oscar continues to battle high wind shear, which has exposed the low-level center to view and pushed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's southeast side. Satellite images show a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm is closing in on Oscar, and this front will overtake Oscar Friday night and absorb the storm by Saturday morning. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar. It's looking none too healthy, with the low-level circulation exposed to view, and a cold front to the north beginning to overtake it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. Beginning on Tuesday, we will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda, where the remains of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back on Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1334. AussieStorm
2:13 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

But all else being equal, 2012 probably will fall a bit shy of 2010 conditions besides vertical instability. But I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong and we see another Tomas.

I hope we don't see another Tomas, he was very deadly. 71 dead and $741 million in damage.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1333. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:06 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1330. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:52 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Any thoughts for 2013 season? Another active one...we are on a 3-year record for consecutive above average seasons
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1329. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:49 PM GMT on October 08, 2012




possible epac major and Leeward storm there
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
1328. atris
1:46 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nah. You're just looking ahead to the 2013 season. Just admit it. LOL. ;-)


Well September was kind of boring ... couple of fish and that was all ...
Member Since: September 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
1327. MAweatherboy1
1:44 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Convection has been building some with 97L but it's very disorganized still:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
1326. CybrTeddy
1:41 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Comparing 2010's atmospheric conditions to that of 2012 in terms of the vertical instability factor is like compared apples to oranges.

Key word: 2012 Drought over the CONUS.

This won't amount to a Tomas even.


We'll see, even 2011 had significant vertical stability and we got Rina in October. That's not the only factor. 98L is being fed by the ITCZ.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24017
1325. MAweatherboy1
1:40 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


I guess it shows that certain people here are not above Admin or maybe they got to political.

Nice convection associated with the ITCZ in the CATL now named 98L





Olivia isn't looking to good.



Prapiroon is building again, predicted to hit Okinawa this weekend, could see RI again.


Pat's still banned, but I checked Nea's blog and either he wasn't banned or was only banned a short time because his blog is up.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
1324. JLPR2
1:40 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
98L...

AL, 98, 2012100806, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2012100812, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO


Wasn't expecting that so soon.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8690
1321. AussieStorm
1:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Morning all. I logged in this morning and noticed many comments of the blog here are missing. It seems like the comments by Neapolitan and Patrap are gone. Have those users been banned? I think so because if you search for them by their handle it says it's been banned by weather blog admin. I sure hope they return soon.

Well it sure seems to me that the longer range outlooks are hinting at much more rainfall for the Heartland! Great new Guys!!





I guess it shows that certain people here are not above Admin or maybe they got to political.

Nice convection associated with the ITCZ in the CATL now named 98L





Olivia isn't looking to good.



Prapiroon is building again, predicted to hit Okinawa this weekend, could see RI again.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1320. MAweatherboy1
1:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
98L's kind of a throwback to a month or two ago when Cape Verde season was in full swing... it should be an interesting one to watch, development will be slow but it's very possible this will become Patty.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
1319. GeoffreyWPB
1:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 08 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-142

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN BAHAMAS FOR 08/1800Z AND FOLLOW ON
MISSION FOR 09/1200Z BOTH CANCELED NY NHC AT 08/1100Z.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
1318. CybrTeddy
1:33 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Not too robust.

That's for sure.

Makes sense, too.


And they were calling 97L to become a minimal hurricane. Clearly, that didn't happen.

Think of Hurricane Tomas. This is similar to that.
06z GFS, 156 hours out shows a strengthening tropical storm.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24017
1317. GeoffreyWPB
1:33 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Bam, Bam, Bam...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
1316. 7544
1:32 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting 7544:
97L out to recurve

wave behind it recurve

next


revise added 98l recurve
next
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1315. GeoffreyWPB
1:31 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
97L...

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1314. CybrTeddy
1:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Watch this one closely.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24017
1313. GeoffreyWPB
1:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
1311. SLU
1:22 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210081302
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012100812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012100712, , BEST, 0, 80N, 308W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100718, , BEST, 0, 80N, 325W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 342W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100806, , BEST, 0, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100812, , BEST, 0, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5126
1310. SLU
1:18 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
98L...

AL, 98, 2012100806, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2012100812, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO


10% is wayyy too conservative when you look at the latest microwave pass. The system isn't that far from being a TD.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5126
1308. CaribBoy
1:13 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Intensity models are not too excited
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
1307. SLU
1:07 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Begin!

016

WHXX01 KWBC 081303

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1303 UTC MON OCT 8 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121008 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

121008 1200 121009 0000 121009 1200 121010 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.2N 37.6W 8.8N 41.2W 9.6N 44.6W 10.5N 47.9W

BAMD 8.2N 37.6W 8.1N 39.7W 8.4N 41.6W 9.1N 43.4W

BAMM 8.2N 37.6W 8.3N 40.3W 8.7N 42.8W 9.4N 45.3W

LBAR 8.2N 37.6W 8.3N 40.3W 8.5N 43.0W 8.8N 45.4W

SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

121010 1200 121011 1200 121012 1200 121013 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.4N 51.3W 12.7N 58.1W 13.0N 64.8W 12.7N 70.3W

BAMD 10.0N 45.0W 12.4N 47.3W 15.4N 48.1W 18.7N 47.7W

BAMM 10.3N 47.6W 12.7N 52.0W 14.9N 55.4W 16.8N 58.4W

LBAR 9.4N 47.6W 11.1N 51.5W 14.0N 54.3W 16.8N 55.4W

SHIP 30KTS 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS

DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 37.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 34.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 30.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5126
1306. GeoffreyWPB
1:02 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
98L...

AL, 98, 2012100806, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2012100812, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
1304. atris
12:55 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting quasistationary:


It is over...it's getting too far west to be classified a Cape Verde.


true ..I was getting ahead of myself ...but its an interesting looking wave IMHO for sure
Member Since: September 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
1303. quasistationary
12:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting atris:
The new 10% off Africa looks good in funktop

loop Link

and the water vapor imagery is telling me its in a good environment ..


Yes , I know the Cape Verde season is supposed to be over...


It is over...it's getting too far west to be classified a Cape Verde.
Member Since: May 3, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
1301. 7544
12:44 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
97L out to recurve

wave behind it recurve

next
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
1299. wxchaser97
12:23 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Have a great day everyone, the wave in the C ATL is looking decent. 12z GFS will likely show something different than the 6z and we need to wait until we get closer to development time for more consistency.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
1298. GeoffreyWPB
12:19 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
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1297. GeoffreyWPB
12:18 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Happy Columbus Day!

Tropical Storm Isaac Impact Summary
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1296. icmoore
12:16 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

They say the seabreeze will come in early this afternoon along the W coast with thunderstorms possible. I see a lot of clouds out over the Gulf already this morning.
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1295. FtMyersgal
12:10 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
1294. wxchaser97
12:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
Convection is not as deep as yesterday with Olivia and it is separated into two areas. I think Olivia has likely peaked and will slowly begin to weaken over the next day.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
1293. GeoffreyWPB
12:01 PM GMT on October 08, 2012
For West Palm Beach...

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1292. icmoore
11:56 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
good morning folks! beautiful day here today!........


Good morning. A lot of dark clouds here over the Gulf this morning.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1291. SFLWeatherman
11:55 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
Wow!!:) THURSDAY Mostly Sunny 85'!!!:) in WPB!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4518
1290. MAweatherboy1
11:54 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE PRODUCING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
1289. wxchaser97
11:51 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
Quoting stoormfury:
waiting for the 12Z of the GFS and the ECMWF runs to be a better assesment of direction and strengh of the catl tropical wave, The 06Z and the 18Z are not too reliable.

I thought that was only about some dropsonde/recon data and even then they aren't much different. When development is still in the medium to long range time frame there isn't much accuracy anyway. They also should be able to initialize fine and any run can make a mistake.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
1288. wxchaser97
11:47 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
Good morning everyone, hopefully everyone is having nice weather and a good day. I see the 6z GFS developed the wave north of the Caribbean Islands and that that was has a 10% chance to develop in 48hrs.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
1287. stoormfury
11:43 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
waiting for the 12Z of the GFS and the ECMWF runs to be a better assesment of direction and strengh of the catl tropical wave, The 06Z and the 18Z are not too reliable.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2678
1286. MAweatherboy1
11:37 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
I think Prapiroon intensified a little too quickly yesterday... it dragged down some dry air and is looking pretty ragged at the moment:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
1285. LargoFl
11:37 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL COUNTIES
AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A FEW OTHERS WILL FORM OVER
INLAND SECTIONS ON THEIR OWN. HOWEVER...AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND IT WILL THEN BRING INCREASED STORM CHANCES FOR INTERIOR
COUNTIES. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OR WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
EXHIBIT SLOW AND SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC MOTION DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
WINDS ALOFT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ANOTHER CONCERN GIVEN THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME HEATING AND AN INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WITHIN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN IN RECENT DAYS HAS BEEN HEAVY. PEAK TOTALS SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND CHAOTIC ALLOWING FOR GENEROUS RAINS TO FALL WITH ANY
GIVEN STORM.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38446
1284. LargoFl
11:35 AM GMT on October 08, 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FOG IMPACT...
PATCHY FOG WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER INLAND LOCATIONS THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE
LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE
BETWEEN VEHICLES WHEN TRAVELING IN FOGGY CONDITIONS.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND HAVE A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION...THE
SLOW MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 50 MPH
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38446

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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