You only die twice: Atlantic's 2nd longest TS of all-time is dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

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The interminable, long-lived, pesky, persistent, perpetual, never-say-day, tenacious, non-stop, I'm-not-dead-yet, Energizer-bunny-like Methuselah of Atlantic tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Nadine, finally met its permanent doom this morning, but not before bringing tropical storm conditions to the northwest Azores Islands. Sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 54 mph, were recorded at Lajes at 8 am local time, as Nadine was completing its transition to an extratropical storm. Today is Nadine's 2nd death; the storm also became extratropical for just over a day on September 22. Nadine logged 21.75 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 am today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) Nadine's 21.25 days as a tropical or subtropical storm make it tied with Hurricane Ginger of 1971 as the Atlantic's second longest tropical storm on record. Only the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (28 days) was longer-lived. About one-quarter of this year's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic basin so far is due to Nadine. According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, here are the four previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted longer than Nadine (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21.75 days

The National Hurricane Center issued 88 advisories on Nadine, and lucky NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila got to write the final epitaph in today's 11 am EDT advisory: "Bye bye Nadine...what a long strange trip its been." See you again in 2018, Nadine.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:35 am EDT September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Oscar becomes the 15th named storm of 2012
The first new tropical storm in the Atlantic since September 12 is Tropical Storm Oscar, which was upgraded to a 40 mph tropical storm on Wednesday night. Oscar won't be around very long, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already suffering significantly from moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which has exposed the low-level center to view, and pushed all of Oscar's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's east side. Wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 - 25 knots tonight, and ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 27°C by Friday. All of the computer models show Oscar ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. Oscar's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to fifteen, tying 2012 for 11th place for most tropical storms in a year. This puts 2012 in the top 10% of busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons for number of storms, since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the large number of named storms this year, we've had a pretty average number of strong hurricanes, so this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% higher than average for this time of year.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. We will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda early next week, though, where the tail end of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Jeff Masters

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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SEVERAL
RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE
RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WOULD BE THE ANCLOTE...
ALAFIA...MANATEE...AND LITTLE MANATEE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39693
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39693
Quoting dabirds:
47) Have to agree, being a little further south, I tend to fear ice storms far more than snow storms. Snow doesn't usually take your power out before temps drop from near the freezing point as weather comes through, to near zero once it's through, and you're not going to have power back for several days to a week because of the widespread damage to the distribution systems. After snow you just wait for the roads to get plowed open and build some snowmen, snowforts, etc.
Definitely!! an ice storm always freaks me out, at least once I became a driver.. as a kid they were a lot of fun ;)
if any kind of winter weather approaches catastrophic, in all likelihood it will be a serious inch ice storm. rare snowstorm exceptions exist in the last 50yrs, most having been noted in these blog comments today (i.e. '93 storm etc.), of which being few in numbers.
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Kevin Martin and the NWS have quite a history it seems
National Weather Service confidential letter goes public, Kevin Martin responds
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Some folks here with an obvious crush on Nea. Geez, people... get a room.

In other news, we got our first snow flurries near Nederland, Colorado this morning. You know it's fall in the Rockies when you have a Red Flag warning (high fire danger) followed immediately by snow flurries...

:)

Socked in today...

(Click image for very cool 24-hour video showing the cold front rolling in last night)
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm not surprised that you took this kind of look at things. You can't handle that your pretty little TWC has been shown up. Neo, your ugly side is beginning to show.

Oscar is still Oscar the grouch and as ugly as ever.


Goodnight



neo's mo is if he keeps saying the same thing over and over somehow that will make it true....neo add some sugar to the kool-aid it taste better that way..
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EPAC to get Olivia in a couple of days:

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47) Have to agree, being a little further south, I tend to fear ice storms far more than snow storms. Snow doesn't usually take your power out before temps drop from near the freezing point as weather comes through, to near zero once it's through, and you're not going to have power back for several days to a week because of the widespread damage to the distribution systems. After snow you just wait for the roads to get plowed open and build some snowmen, snowforts, etc.
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Quoting ncstorm:


I think you got it backwards..


Implosion would imply the brain's sudden reaction to the terrifying image, therefore sending signals to the eyes that they must retreat, sadly in such a case, the reaction is so sudden and violent, that they implode...

There you have it.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go through his Facebook. I'll get some quotes when I get home.


Can't access Facebook from this work computer. I'll look forward to what information you present
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1107 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. THE HIGHEST IMPACT WILL
BE IN THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO ROSEAU AREAS AS TREE LIMBS CONTINUE
TO FALL UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THE WET SNOW ON THE LEAFY BRANCHES AND
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AREA.



Grand Forks Webcam



Hmmm ,Wonder if it meets the TWC criteria yet....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6932
Quoting Jedkins01:



To be perfectly honest, I really, REALLY, would rather not see most of those in the blogs who are not fond of the new TWC naming systems in little skirts and pop poms. I prefer to keep my eyes from imploding ;)


I think you got it backwards..
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


Really? Can you post something that validates that statement? Cuz if Martin did say that, he is not a very credible source IMO

Go through his Facebook. I'll get some quotes when I get home.
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Quoting Minnemike:
maybe you need some true blue upper midwest USA experience to understand how utterly ridiculous this appears.. such that myself, i laugh at the absurdity of categorizing and labeling the events this way. in no way has any snow storm in the last 50yrs ever been "catastrophic" when compared to the impacts of even a Cat. 2 tropical cyclone... sure, our sports dome roof collapsed recently, and cars got stranded on highways, accidents rampant.. but that's just 'way of life' during winter.
that chart, and the criteria/characteristics associated with naming are very hype inducing. i still find this naming business suspicious, unnecessary, and distasteful as a life long MN resident. there are memorable events that for social reasons, and archival reasons, adopting a name seems prudent. naming a 6"-11" event is just ridiculous!
let's start naming supercell thunderstorms while we're at it :P



The other issue is, what conclusions will they come to for a winter storm to be named. Furthermore, extra tropical cyclones, as the NWS points out would be rather hard to name. There are exceptions like the 1993 super storm, but that is an exception. Generally, non-tropical cyclones don't "make their own weather" in the way a tropical cyclone does. In an extra tropical low, you could have exceptionally low pressure, and not necessarily powerful winds, because a strong pressure gradient is needed, and the stronger winds will be generated where the pressure gradient force is strongest. The weather associated with them is generally not organized into a definitive center like that of a tropical cyclone. One system might have 40 knot winds, say in a quadrant 150 miles from the center, then it might shift to the opposite side of the low, 90 miles out from the center the next day. The same goes for snow accumulation and placement.


I'm not going to freak out about TWC naming them, it's not a big deal to me. However, it makes absolute logical sense why the NWS won't. there are many reasons that naming a tropical cyclone is practical, and there are many reasons for not naming a baroclinic system, some of which examples I have described. Also I wonder how the TWC will determine which ones should be named, and how to define impacts, and placement, and just general criteria, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Kevin Martin is NOT liked throughout the weather community. He thinks the information he puts out is official and the NWS is not an official source of information. He goes around telling people not to listen to them.


Really? Can you post something that validates that statement? Cuz if Martin did say that, he is not a very credible source IMO
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Quoting Neapolitan:
It's entirely possible--in fact, it's probable--that TWC was completely unaware of The Weather Space, as it's but an obscure, little-viewed website (that, it should be noted, only this year moved its chemtrail forecasting pages to "another server". [The article states the two sites are no longer afilliated, but a quick check of WHOIS show they're registered by the same entity, and they exist at the same IP address. Oopsie.]). From Alexa:

The Weather Channel
U.S rank: 31
World rank: 121

The Weather Space
U.S. rank: 265,109
World rank: 845,565

At any rate, I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim seems about as valid as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]". Nah, this looks to me suspiciously like someone trying to cash in on the publicity TWC has received for their great idea. Not that I blame them; they sure look like they could use it...


TWC is like a company claiming to invent this yellow substance for sandwiches and spreads and then find out later that hey, mustard already existed..

For them to claim they were the first naming winter storms and they dont have their lawyers/research team to make sure of such a claim is not good planning right from the jump start..
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears Dr. Masters has coined a new phrase "YODO"(you only die twice).
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
last yellow in this part of the basin was 92 and that was a 0%. been a while.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

What is wrong with that? It's probably better than what TWC has so far. Do they actually have a set criteria yet?
maybe you need some true blue upper midwest USA experience to understand how utterly ridiculous this appears.. such that myself, i laugh at the absurdity of categorizing and labeling the events this way. in no way has any snow storm in the last 50yrs ever been "catastrophic" when compared to the impacts of even a Cat. 2 tropical cyclone... sure, our sports dome roof collapsed recently, and cars got stranded on highways, accidents rampant.. but that's just 'way of life' during winter.
that chart, and the criteria/characteristics associated with naming are very hype inducing. i still find this naming business suspicious, unnecessary, and distasteful as a life long MN resident. there are memorable events that for social reasons, and archival reasons, adopting a name seems prudent. naming a 6"-11" event is just ridiculous!
let's start naming supercell thunderstorms while we're at it :P
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Quoting beell:
90% of the population will enjoy the novelty of named winter storms. And that is all it is. A novelty.

The novelty for the remaining 10% is watching the kool-aid drinking cheerleaders trying to convince us otherwise.

Some of ya'll look pretty hot in your little skirts and pom poms...



To be perfectly honest, I really, REALLY, would rather not see most of those in the blogs who are not fond of the new TWC naming systems in little skirts and pop poms. I prefer to keep my eyes from imploding ;)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
Kevin Martin is NOT liked throughout the weather community. He thinks the information he puts out is official and the NWS is not an official source of information. He goes around telling people not to listen to them.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

The Perfect Storm October 30, 1991.



thanks Aussie..so there was another Perfect Storm? Good to know..
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Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, somehow in the back of my mind I remember something about that. Maybe it was the blog I did on it last year.


You have a blog:)..I will look to see if it was in reference to the "perfect storm" on wikipedia right now..
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It's entirely possible--in fact, it's probable--that TWC was completely unaware of The Weather Space, as it's but an obscure, little-viewed website (that, it should be noted, only this year moved its chemtrail forecasting pages to "another server". [The article states the two sites are no longer afilliated, but a quick check of WHOIS show they're registered by the same entity, and they exist at the same IP address. Oopsie.]). From Alexa:

The Weather Channel
U.S rank: 31
World rank: 121

The Weather Space
U.S. rank: 265,109
World rank: 845,565

At any rate, I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim seems about as valid as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]". Nah, this looks to me suspiciously like someone trying to cash in on the publicity TWC has received for their great idea. Not that I blame them; they sure look like they could use it...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
Quoting originalLT:
Hi ncstorm, no, The Perfect Storm movie was about a late Oct. storm, that I believe merged with a tropical system. The Super Storm took place in March of 1993. I'm pretty sure about this. I guess we both could look it up on Google!

The Perfect Storm October 30, 1991.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting originalLT:
Hi ncstorm, no, The Perfect Storm movie was about a late Oct. storm, that I believe merged with a tropical system. The Super Storm took place in March of 1993. I'm pretty sure about this. I guess we both could look it up on Google!


oh shoot..let me google...I thought it was about the super storm all these years..LOL
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Quoting ncstorm:


its also been called the "perfect storm" as well..in fact a movie was made about it which included fishing..


Yeah, somehow in the back of my mind I remember something about that. Maybe it was the blog I did on it last year.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Grothar, of course the "no name" storm of 1993, has become known as ",Super Storm". But it was so called, after the fact, I don't believe it was called that during the event.


You are correct, it was named after the fact. Like the 1991 storm became known as the Halloween Storm after the fact. I always thought the Blizzard of '88 should have been named. (Of course I am referring to 1888.)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26548
Hi ncstorm, no, The Perfect Storm movie was about a late Oct. storm, that I believe merged with a tropical system. The Super Storm took place in March of 1993. I'm pretty sure about this. I guess we both could look it up on Google!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

What is wrong with that? It's probably better than what TWC has so far. Do they actually have a set criteria yet?


Not as far as I am aware !!! but would love to see it, if anyone can find it...
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Fantasy is great:
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
this is


What is wrong with that? It's probably better than what TWC has so far. Do they actually have a set criteria yet?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Wow. Deja vu. The beginning of this blog looks just like the end of last blog. ;)

I'll just sit here and plus deez again.
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Nine children dead, nine missing as landslide buries school in China

NINE Chinese children have been confirmed dead and nine classmates are missing after a landslide engulfed their school as they made up classes lost due to deadly earthquakes last month, state media said.

A villager was also missing after the landslide buried the school and three farmhouses at Zhenhe village in the mountainous southwestern province of Yunnan, Xinhua news agency reported.

The slide also blocked a nearby river, creating a lake and forcing the evacuation of more than 800 residents living downstream, the agency said.

Almost 2,000 people had been mobilised to unblock the waterway and help in the rescue, it said, estimating the volume of earth at 160,000 cubic metres.

One person was seriously injured by the mudslide, Xinhua reported.

The students at the Youfang Primary School would not normally have been in school this week as China is on a week-long national holiday.

But officials said the children were making up for lost time caused by disruptions stemming from two September 7 earthquakes that struck Yiliang county where Zhenhe is located, killing 81 people and leaving hundreds injured.

Web users immediately raised questions about the decision to bring the children back to school.

The safety of school pupils is a sensitive issue after thousands of students died when an 8.0-magnitude tremor in 2008 rocked Sichuan province in southwestern China and parts of neighbouring Shaanxi and Gansu.

"Are the officials all on vacation? Why was there no alert? Why were there students in school during the holidays?" a user of leading portal Sina.com's popular micro-blogging service asked after the landslide.

Many schools collapsed in the 2008 quake, which killed more than 80,000 people in total.

This led to accusations that corner-cutting in construction projects and possibly corruption led to shoddy buildings, especially as many buildings near such schools held firm.

Images broadcast on state television showed rescue personnel picking through landslide debris. It said the landslide occurred after sustained rains in the area.

Many buildings in Yiliang County are located precariously at the foot of steep mountainsides.

The landslide struck at 8.00am local time as students were arriving for classes, reports said.

"More than 30 students were supposed to attend classes today and there were 18 pupils at school before the class started this morning," a local official who gave only his surname, Yang, said by phone.

"The school is just one single-storey teaching building."

Yiliang county was one of the areas worst-hit by the two 5.6-magnitude earthquakes last month.

"Youfang is one of the schools that has resumed classes. I have no more details," an official at the Yiliang Education Bureau who gave only his surname Zhang said.

An earlier statement by the bureau had encouraged all classes to resume by October 5.

A family of three managed to escape before the landslide hit, Xinhua said, but gave no other details on them.

Local government officials moved residents to safer ground after the disaster and dispatched rescue teams to the area, it added.

Last month's quakes left 820 people injured and 201,000 displaced.

In the wake of that disaster, domestic media said authorities should emphasise safety and sustainability in future developments.

Despite decades of rapidly improving living standards, China remains prone to natural disasters such as floods, quakes, and landslides, with heavy loss of life.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
this is

Quoting AussieStorm:

I am just wondering what you were LOL'ing about?
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Quoting ncstorm:


Did anyone at TWC not research this at all?..LOL!!!! how can you claim to be the first of something when its been going on for many years..good gosh almighty..


It would appear not ...LOL
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Quoting ncstorm:


Did anyone at TWC not research this at all?..LOL!!!! how can you claim to be the first of something when its been going on for many years..good gosh almighty..



seems like a good question for neao but he bails when the kitchen gets to hott.....
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Sry!!

I am just wondering what you were LOL'ing about?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting ncstorm:


Did anyone at TWC not research this at all?..LOL!!!! how can you claim to be the first of something when its been going on for many years..good gosh almighty..

Just sloppy, isn't it. Maybe they should give credit where credit is due.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Sry!!
Quoting AussieStorm:


???????
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Quoting originalLT:
Hi Grothar, of course the "no name" storm of 1993, has become known as ",Super Storm". But it was so called, after the fact, I don't believe it was called that during the event.


its also been called the "perfect storm" as well..in fact a movie was made about it which included fishing..
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4711
Quoting AussieStorm:
The Weather Channel Contacts TheWeatherSpace.com over Naming Issue

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - While TWC on-air meteorologists brag about being the first to name coming Winter Storms, TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin has contacted The Weather Channel over the credit to claim, and a response was given.

The Weather Channel announced yesterday that they will be the first to name Winter Storms in the United States, before they come. Many have named them after the fact but no one has ever named them before hitting. However this was wrong.

Last night, Martin looked in an archive that is as good as a time machine itself, proving without a doubt he named them as far back as 2004. But, in reality he started it before the year 2000 with his viewers. The 2006 archive is enough to show the world The Weather Channel is not the first to come up with Winter Storm names before hitting populated areas.

TheWeatherSpace.com Network is the same outline as Ontario Weather Service back then and Southern California Weather Authority. However TheWeatherSpace.com is the national level site.

"TheWeatherSpace.com's studio is being built in Los Angeles, California and the novelty of this site on-air is to name Winter Storms," said Martin. "As you saw in the 2006 Blog and archive snapshot of my site back then showing it was categorized and named before hitting populated areas in Southern California."

What about on a national level?

"Adopting the same method of the Southern California Weather Authority, naming Winter Storms would expand this year nationally using my concept," said Martin. "The concept has a working category and criteria system for these storms, the same criteria for snow/blizzards in Southern California's Mountains."

The Weather Channel has contacted Martin today stating they will be giving a few days to speak to the company about it as Martin is pressing this issue hard.

"We already have a Winter Storm out there," said Martin. "Winter Storm Adam has been declared here at TheWeatherSpace.com and it will impact the most across North Dakota and Minnesota tonight. This is only confusing people and when TheWeatherSpace.com's main office goes even more national it will confuse them further."

So it looks like there will be an issue between The Weather Channel and TheWeatherSpace.com Networks on naming Winter Storms, since Martin has the documentation that would change their path.

Updates will come as they are available.

Link


Did anyone at TWC not research this at all?..LOL!!!! how can you claim to be the first of something when its been going on for many years..good gosh almighty..
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Hi Grothar, of course the "no name" storm of 1993, has become known as ",Super Storm". But it was so called, after the fact, I don't believe it was called that during the event.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
lol!

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
lol!

???????
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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