You only die twice: Atlantic's 2nd longest TS of all-time is dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

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The interminable, long-lived, pesky, persistent, perpetual, never-say-day, tenacious, non-stop, I'm-not-dead-yet, Energizer-bunny-like Methuselah of Atlantic tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Nadine, finally met its permanent doom this morning, but not before bringing tropical storm conditions to the northwest Azores Islands. Sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 54 mph, were recorded at Lajes at 8 am local time, as Nadine was completing its transition to an extratropical storm. Today is Nadine's 2nd death; the storm also became extratropical for just over a day on September 22. Nadine logged 21.75 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 am today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) Nadine's 21.25 days as a tropical or subtropical storm make it tied with Hurricane Ginger of 1971 as the Atlantic's second longest tropical storm on record. Only the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (28 days) was longer-lived. About one-quarter of this year's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic basin so far is due to Nadine. According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, here are the four previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted longer than Nadine (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21.75 days

The National Hurricane Center issued 88 advisories on Nadine, and lucky NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila got to write the final epitaph in today's 11 am EDT advisory: "Bye bye Nadine...what a long strange trip its been." See you again in 2018, Nadine.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:35 am EDT September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Oscar becomes the 15th named storm of 2012
The first new tropical storm in the Atlantic since September 12 is Tropical Storm Oscar, which was upgraded to a 40 mph tropical storm on Wednesday night. Oscar won't be around very long, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already suffering significantly from moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which has exposed the low-level center to view, and pushed all of Oscar's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's east side. Wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 - 25 knots tonight, and ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 27°C by Friday. All of the computer models show Oscar ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. Oscar's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to fifteen, tying 2012 for 11th place for most tropical storms in a year. This puts 2012 in the top 10% of busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons for number of storms, since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the large number of named storms this year, we've had a pretty average number of strong hurricanes, so this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% higher than average for this time of year.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. We will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda early next week, though, where the tail end of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Okay, according to Alexa:

The Weather Channel: 121
The Weather Space: 845,565


If you limit it to just "weather" sites, the weather space is way way in the back of the list. To make this point even stronger, when you do a search for "weather" in google, the weather space isn't even in the first 10 pages of hits.

Sorry, but there really is no other way to interpret the data here. The weather channel and related affiliates are all top 10 weather sites, along with NOAA and government related sites. The weather space doesn't even register.

'Top 10' and 'Top 10 Percent' are entirely different realms of success. To say that WeatherSpace being in the top bracket of websites is false because its not in the top few individuals is a logical fallacy that should not be even be purported as truth.
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Quoting seminolesfan:
In plain english:

I propose that you posted Alexa stats in a misleading fashion in order to defame a web site YOU deem to be beneath your respect.
Your proposal is, of course, devoid of merit. I presented Alexa's numbers in an honest and open fashion. No spin, no bias, no manipulation. Just the numbers as reported by Alexa. Some may disagree with those numbers or wish they were different, but facts are facts, I'm afraid. If TWC missed TWS's naming of winter storms, it's only because it's an obscure website.
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115. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I've long held the believe that those of whom that view a Cable News Network as entertainment basically means they don't see eye to eye with the Network regarding their respective political undertone(s). Afterall, MSNBC is virtually entertainment to me.


I actually like to see the whole picture by checking as much different opinion as possible before I form an opinion

Anyways the soon to be dead Oscar

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In plain english:

I propose that you posted Alexa stats in a misleading fashion in order to defame a web site YOU deem to be beneath your respect.
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Quoting seminolesfan:



I wonder how you learned to lie with statistics so well?

Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)


Okay, according to Alexa:

The Weather Channel: 121
The Weather Space: 845,565


If you limit it to just "weather" sites, the weather space is way way in the back of the list. To make this point even stronger, when you do a search for "weather" in google, the weather space isn't even in the first 10 pages of hits.

Sorry, but there really is no other way to interpret the data here. The weather channel and related affiliates are all top 10 weather sites, along with NOAA and government related sites. The weather space doesn't even register.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Um--huh? What "analysis"? And what does that little bit of math have to do with anything? Care to share?

101. seminolesfan 6:10 PM GMT on October 04, 2012 +2
Quoting Neapolitan:
...I admit; I'm a stickler for doing my homework before commenting. I always thought that was a good thing... ;-)



L. O. L!

EDIT(for context):
Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)


(16,000,000-850,000)/16,000,000= 0.95

To the correct sig figs, too!

Can't refute my analysis with a "you're dumb and wrong" answer on this one, bud. :)



[Are we all just to believe you really don't get the context? Gloss over the criticism with a pity card.
Weak move, bro.]
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Quoting seminolesfan:



L. O. L!


(16,000,000-850,000)/16,000,000= 0.95

To the correct sig figs, too!

Can't refute my analysis with a "you're dumb and wrong" answer on this one, bud. :)
Um--huh? What "analysis"? And what does that little bit of math have to do with anything? It would be ever so helpful were you to share with the rest of the class. TIA...

EDIT: Okay, I see you made changes to make your comment a bit more comprehensible. Please allow me to retort:

1) No one was discussing "relevance". I merely noted that the #31 site in the nation was almost certainly unaware of what the #265,109 in the nation was doing.

2) If you would like to discuss "relevance", I can think of no better metric than advertising revenue. Do you suppose that TWS can demand the same rates as TWC? If so, how? My own guess: TWC earns more. Much more.

3) Even if TWS were the #32 site in the nation--which it's not; there are 265,108 sites more popular than it--that wouldn't change the fact that it's an anti-government, banned-by-the-NWS site seeking to steal some of TWC's well-earned limelight.
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109. VR46L
Quoting Xyrus2000:


He asked for a news site. I don't see what Fox has to do with news. Entertainment yes, but not news.


As far as I know its regarded as a news site albeit a right wing lending one ...but you are entittled to your opinion just as much as I am
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Quoting kwgirl:
Beautiful! Thanks. I didn't realize they had mountains in Michigan. Or is that looking toward Canada? Or should I call it a hill. They call them hills in Scotland, but they are really mountains. I have been living too long at sea level:)


Well, technically the webcam does look towards Canada, but everything you see in that view is still in Michigan. I believe the tall hill in the background is Nub's Nob, home of the Nubs Nob Ski Area.



I don't think they call them mountains in Michigan, but I admit I haven't spent much time there. Sure is pretty, no matter what you call it. :)
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..
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Quoting VR46L:


There is always Fox.... now I will duck out


He asked for a news site. I don't see what Fox has to do with news. Entertainment yes, but not news.
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Quoting yoboi:


can't afford a room been taxed to death past few yrs..


Really? Do you live in Switzerland or something? No? Well then you claim has zero factual evidence considering here in the states taxes are the lowest they've been in the last 50 years.

At any rate, could you tone down your ideological trolling a bit? It doesn't really have a place here.
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103. VR46L
Quoting goosegirl1:


From the last blog- yes, they have criteria. Please go to weather.com, click "news" at top right, scroll down to the correct story and read about them. A little research goes a long way.





here is the actual linkLink

But I cant see an actual criteria just talks about levels of snowfall but no amounts ..very fuzzy in details, but now I am really out
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Quoting kwgirl:
Beautiful! Thanks. I didn't realize they had mountains in Michigan. Or is that looking toward Canada? Or should I call it a hill. They call them hills in Scotland, but they are really mountains. I have been living too long at sea level:)


I believe most of the mountains in Michigan are located in the Upper Pennisula. :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
...I admit; I'm a stickler for doing my homework before commenting. I always thought that was a good thing... ;-)



L. O. L!

EDIT(for context):
Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)


(16,000,000-850,000)/16,000,000= 0.95

To the correct sig figs, too!

Can't refute my analysis with a "you're dumb and wrong" answer on this one, bud. :)
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Im off for the rest of the week...so I just found out TWC is going to do a chat about their winter storm thing...I am very eager to know what their game is
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's entirely possible--in fact, it's probable--that TWC was completely unaware of The Weather Space, as it's but an obscure, little-viewed website (that, it should be noted, only this year moved its chemtrail forecasting pages to "another server". [The article states the two sites are no longer afilliated, but a quick check of WHOIS show they're registered by the same entity, and they exist at the same IP address. Oopsie.]). From Alexa:

The Weather Channel
U.S rank: 31
World rank: 121

The Weather Space
U.S. rank: 265,109
World rank: 845,565

At any rate, I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim seems about as valid as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]". Nah, this looks to me suspiciously like someone trying to cash in on the publicity TWC has received for their great idea. Not that I blame them; they sure look like they could use it...



I wonder how you learned to lie with statistics so well?

Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)
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Quoting MrMixon:


Hmmm... perhaps you're not managing your money well. The small company I work for is thriving and even as a lowly geoscientist I've been able to comfortably afford my taxes as well as the occasional hotel room. Surely you agree that it's best to take personal responsibility for your situation rather than blame others, right?

I tried to find a webcam showing some snow up on the northern plains... but no luck. So here is a live look at some fall colors in Michigan to soothe the soul:


(Click image for link to the webcam page here on wunderground)
Beautiful! Thanks. I didn't realize they had mountains in Michigan. Or is that looking toward Canada? Or should I call it a hill. They call them hills in Scotland, but they are really mountains. I have been living too long at sea level:)
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Quoting VR46L:


Not as far as I am aware !!! but would love to see it, if anyone can find it...


From the last blog- yes, they have criteria. Please go to weather.com, click "news" at top right, scroll down to the correct story and read about them. A little research goes a long way.



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Quoting yoboi:


can't afford a room been taxed to death past few yrs..


Hmmm... perhaps you're not managing your money well. The small company I work for is thriving and even as a lowly geoscientist I've been able to comfortably afford my taxes as well as the occasional hotel room. Surely you agree that it's best to take personal responsibility for your situation rather than blame others, right?

I tried to find a webcam showing some snow up on the northern plains... but no luck. So here is a live look at some fall colors in Michigan to soothe the soul:


(Click image for link to the webcam page here on wunderground)
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
I've got a ask : can someone give me a link to some American news websites? I:ll be very thankful :)

Here's one.

Here's another.

lololololol



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Post#81, there is always MSNBC, now I will duck my head and get out of the way:)!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Now we're going in circles, and that just makes me dizzy. So I'll close with this from my comment #41: I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim of iilegality seems to have as much merit as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]".

(And FWIW, since TWC is providing this wonderful forum, I'd say it is pretty "great".)


Your entittled to your opinion ...just as much as I am ...

Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
I've got a ask : can someone give me a link to some American news websites? I:ll be very thankful :)


There is always Fox.... now I will duck out
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Quoting ncstorm:


I think you got it backwards..

Yep, he got it backwards and doesn't realize it.
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THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... AREAS OF FOG WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM ROUGHLY JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE THIS MORNING. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
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Link
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
I've got a ask : can someone give me a link to some American news websites? I:ll be very thankful :)
..try CNN.com
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Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TROPICAL STORM MARCE (GAEMI)
11:00 PM PhST October 4 2012
===============================

TROPICAL STORM MARCE has maintained its strength and continues to slowly move westward.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Marce (Gaemi) [994 hPa] located at 14.7N 117.8E or 240 km west of Subic, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Zambales
2. Bataan

Additional Information
=====================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10%u201325 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents in areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the western seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm Marce

(source via twitter)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43661
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Orlando should have lows in the 60's by next week.
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Quoting VR46L:


Still does not negate the fact that someone else who has a published criteria has been doing it before the "great" TWC ...
Now we're going in circles, and that just makes me dizzy. So I'll close with this from my comment #41: I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim of iilegality seems to have as much merit as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]".

(And FWIW, since TWC is providing this wonderful forum, I'd say it is pretty "great".)
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Energy Company Plans to Frack the Newberry volcano in Oregon


True genius has its limitations. Stupidity has no boundaries.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
I've got a ask : can someone give me a link to some American news websites? I:ll be very thankful :)
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I would laugh if Nadine regenerates
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Quoting Neapolitan:
So the 31st most viewed website in the country has been "shown up" by the 265,109th, an NWS-banned, anti-government purveyor of debunked conspiracy theories?

Seriously?

When you awaken, perhaps you'll be kind enough to explain just how that is.

BTW, by "took this kind of look at things", are you saying that you thought I'd take the time to do some research and thoughtful analysis? If so, the charge is true, I admit; I'm a stickler for doing my homework before commenting. I always thought that was a good thing... ;-)


Still does not negate the fact that someone else who has a published criteria has been doing it before the "great" TWC ...
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Quoting Speeky:
who thinks that nadine could regenerate in few days when the storm pulls further south after the low passes by?



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
Quoting Speeky:
who thinks that nadine could regenerate in few days when the storm pulls further south after the low passes by?


If that happens we automatically skip to "R" and rename her Rasputin :)
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I believe 2 areas of interest in the next few days,we might see some type of development by the Yucatan Peninsula and a low coming from the East to the Bahamas,don't know if this low will make it pass the Bahamas this time of year most likely will re-curve back to sea,some of the models are hinting at this low going over the Bahamas but we can't see actually where is going end up? all depends on the high pressure from the East and fronts coming down.On the Yucatan Peninsula we can see a lot of activity in this area today,I will not be surprise to see something going on on this area soon,specially this time of year.We'll see what happens in the next 2-4 days.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm not surprised that you took this kind of look at things. You can't handle that your pretty little TWC has been shown up. Neo, your ugly side is beginning to show.

So the 31st most viewed website in the country has been "shown up" by the 265,109th, an NWS-banned, anti-government purveyor of debunked conspiracy theories?

Seriously?

When you awaken, perhaps you'd be kind enough to explain for us just how that is?

BTW, by "took this kind of look at things", are you saying that you thought I'd take the time to do some research and thoughtful analysis? If so, the charge is true, I admit; I'm a stickler for doing my homework before commenting. I always thought that was a good thing... ;-)
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who thinks that nadine could regenerate in few days when the storm pulls further south after the low passes by?
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Quoting MrMixon:
Some folks here with an obvious crush on Nea. Geez, people... get a room.

In other news, we got our first snow flurries near Nederland, Colorado this morning. You know it's fall in the Rockies when you have a Red Flag warning (high fire danger) followed immediately by snow flurries...

:)

Socked in today...

(Click image for very cool 24-hour video showing the cold front rolling in last night)


can't afford a room been taxed to death past few yrs..
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GFS at 48 Hours..watching that low by the islands
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Kevin Martin and the NWS have quite a history it seems
National Weather Service confidential letter goes public, Kevin Martin responds


Thanks for posting that GS! Gosh, and these are adults acting this way?? LMAO over it
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SEVERAL
RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE
RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WOULD BE THE ANCLOTE...
ALAFIA...MANATEE...AND LITTLE MANATEE.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.