You only die twice: Atlantic's 2nd longest TS of all-time is dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

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The interminable, long-lived, pesky, persistent, perpetual, never-say-day, tenacious, non-stop, I'm-not-dead-yet, Energizer-bunny-like Methuselah of Atlantic tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Nadine, finally met its permanent doom this morning, but not before bringing tropical storm conditions to the northwest Azores Islands. Sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 54 mph, were recorded at Lajes at 8 am local time, as Nadine was completing its transition to an extratropical storm. Today is Nadine's 2nd death; the storm also became extratropical for just over a day on September 22. Nadine logged 21.75 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 am today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) Nadine's 21.25 days as a tropical or subtropical storm make it tied with Hurricane Ginger of 1971 as the Atlantic's second longest tropical storm on record. Only the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (28 days) was longer-lived. About one-quarter of this year's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic basin so far is due to Nadine. According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, here are the four previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted longer than Nadine (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21.75 days

The National Hurricane Center issued 88 advisories on Nadine, and lucky NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila got to write the final epitaph in today's 11 am EDT advisory: "Bye bye Nadine...what a long strange trip its been." See you again in 2018, Nadine.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:35 am EDT September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Oscar becomes the 15th named storm of 2012
The first new tropical storm in the Atlantic since September 12 is Tropical Storm Oscar, which was upgraded to a 40 mph tropical storm on Wednesday night. Oscar won't be around very long, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already suffering significantly from moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which has exposed the low-level center to view, and pushed all of Oscar's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's east side. Wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 - 25 knots tonight, and ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 27°C by Friday. All of the computer models show Oscar ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. Oscar's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to fifteen, tying 2012 for 11th place for most tropical storms in a year. This puts 2012 in the top 10% of busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons for number of storms, since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the large number of named storms this year, we've had a pretty average number of strong hurricanes, so this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% higher than average for this time of year.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. We will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda early next week, though, where the tail end of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jedkins01:


Nice, I'm 25 miles away from the thunderstorms still and I can already here thunder rumbling from in my house, they are some powerful cells. I already had over 2 inches of rain yesterday, a very wet start to October it has been.


Hope you get some more rain! I only got .54 in in the past 24 hours. Parts of downtown Fort Myers received 2" yesterday
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big o north atlantic low spinning there move along the cyclone show may be over
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Quoting Slamguitar:


I see you've found my webcam. ;)



JK, but seriously I have almost the same view. This is wonderful time of the year in Michigan!


It looks gorgeous. I love autumn just about everywhere, but the Midwestern and Eastern states have so much great color this time of year. It's mostly just yellow here in Colorado. We do get reds and oranges too... but only the occasional aspen grove gets the red/orange color, so we have to be content to take in our red colors on the small plants like wild roses, sumac, and geraniums.

Can you tell me if I was correct about that hill being Nub's Nob?
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Quoting FtMyersgal:
middle of July here in Central Florida, PW's around 2.2 inches, a dew point of 77 and strong thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes.

Same here Jedkins01. PW 2.2 DewPoint 73° Just had a thunderstorm roll on in about 30 minutes ago


Nice, I'm 25 miles away+ from the thunderstorms still and I can already here thunder rumbling from in my house, they are some powerful cells. I already had over 2 inches of rain yesterday, a very wet start to October it has been.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7680
Despite a few areas of showers and thunderstorms across Florida, Illinois, and the Northeast, along with some light snow showers in Minnesota, much of the United States is currently dry. The position of the cold front responsible for much cooler weather so far this week across the Plains, and upcoming cooler weather for people in the Southeast, is clearly visible when overlaying the current temperatures on the USA base map.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let's go Cards!
I'm a Braves fan, myself.
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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Hi :) The rain is moving on up!
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Quoting Bluestorm5:

It's just another gloomy day in Central NC for 5th day in the row. Where's the sun?

I took it and brought it to MI to have one last day in the sun.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ahhh no, your team didn't have a player win just win the triple crown.

Today has a high so far of 78F and it is beautiful. Too bad it will cool of into the 50s.

It's just another gloomy day in Central NC for 5th day in the row. Where's the sun?
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middle of July here in Central Florida, PW's around 2.2 inches, a dew point of 77 and strong thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes.

Same here Jedkins01. PW 2.2 DewPoint 73° Just had a thunderstorm roll on in about 30 minutes ago
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let's go Cards!

Ahhh no, that team didn't have a player win just win the triple crown. Mine did and the Tigers are better.

Today has a high so far of 78F and it is beautiful. Too bad it will cool of into the 50s.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting dabirds:
Got to love fall in Midwest, 82 for high today, 52 for high tomorrow, 54 was the low this a.m.

Cards going for 12th in '12, takes 12 wins to do it - seem familiar? (11th in '11 on 11 wins and last team in)
Let's go Cards!
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC049-057-081-105-042030-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0058.121004T2001Z-121004T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HARDEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MEADE...OR
8 MILES NORTH OF WAUCHULA...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORT
GREEN...FORT LONESOME...ALAFIA RIVER STATE PARK AND DUETTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2764 8225 2792 8205 2774 8166 2749 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 116DEG 15KT 2766 8181

$$




It's like July in October here in Central Florida, PW's around 2.2 inches, a dew point of 77 and strong thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7680
Got to love fall in Midwest, 82 for high today, 52 for high tomorrow, 54 was the low this a.m.

Cards going for 12th in '12, takes 12 wins to do it - seem familiar? (11th in '11 on 11 wins and last team in)
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Good afternoon everyone, I see Nadine is Nagone! Oscar isn't doing too well and the fall colors up here are very evident.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
After a few days of pretty deep cold in the Northern Plains and parts of the East, much of the nation is expected to warm back up next week. Here's the 8-14 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center:

8-14
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Its a miracle!!!! Nadine is gone!
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Quoting MrMixon:


I tried to find a webcam showing some snow up on the northern plains... but no luck. So here is a live look at some fall colors in Michigan to soothe the soul:


(Click image for link to the webcam page here on wunderground)


I see you've found my webcam. ;)



JK, but seriously I have almost the same view. This is wonderful time of the year in Michigan!
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST THU OCT 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS....TUTT LOW NEAR 22N58W THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE TUTT LOW
WILL MOVE CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO/USVI LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASING
THE RISK FOR CONVECTION. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AND DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO BY LATE FRIDAY. A RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ALOFT NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TUTT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR 32N61W ALSO VISIBLE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL
MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL FORM A WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
BY SATURDAY. AS THE WEAK LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES...SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...
DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH
GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...DIURNAL PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE DURING THE
NEXT FEW OF DAYS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DECR LATE AFT BUT ISOLD AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION WILL CONT INTO THE NIGHT ON NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF PR
INCLUDING USVI. PSBL MVFR WILL BE VERY BRIEF...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AT TJMZ AND AN OUTSIDE CHC ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. LLVL WINDS TO
GENERALLY BE NE 5-15 KT THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL LATER NEXT
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 50
STT 77 87 76 87 / 30 30 30 30

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14406
Ok yoboi, I was looking up nation wide averages, on GasBuddy.com
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam thinking a strong midfall tornado season to herald in on winters fast approach from 11 of oct on
Two things make me believe it possible. The NAO will go positive for a bit, and there usually is some type of fall outbreak.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I also supplement with The Daily Show and the Colbert Report, as satire often has much more "tuthiness".

That is, unless the news has something to do with science. In that case I skip news sites entirely and look for the scientific research itself. The news sites rarely get it right and dumb it down to the point of uselessness.

Yuppers, Colbert is more satire than the Daily Show is. Daily Show specializes in documenting hypocrisy of "news" organizations.

Yuppers, science reporting is sadly lacking in many cases. The online headline writers are the worst offenders. Far too many times I see headlines touting the solution to some problem only to read that someone is merely looking at the problem. Of course the headline writers are just trying to capture mouse clicks and eyeballs.

I get really tired of the gimmicks used to increase traffic/viewers. It never matters how much traffic you have. Management wants more!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
147. yoboi
Quoting originalLT:
Post# 139, gas prices are not at an all time high, they are high now, but the highest was during the summer of 2008. You can look it up, just Google it.


i did and in ca yesterday all time high...
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146. yoboi
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You must remember business creation and private enterprise endeavors are not in everyone's best interest.


i know i didn't build it....
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Post# 139, gas prices are not at an all time high, they are high now, but the highest was during the summer of 2008. You can look it up, just Google it.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Fantasy is great:

snnooowww?/????? PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
Quoting hydrus:
Long way out, but a pattern change like this one would produce quite a few rounds of severe weather.
iam thinking a strong midfall tornado season to herald in on winters fast approach from 11 of oct on
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
139. yoboi
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Really? Do you live in Switzerland or something? No? Well then you claim has zero factual evidence considering here in the states taxes are the lowest they've been in the last 50 years.

At any rate, could you tone down your ideological trolling a bit? It doesn't really have a place here.


they are not the lowest in fifty yrs for a business owner.....also gas prices at an all time high....you can try a spin it but you can't....
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Long way out, but a pattern change like this one would produce quite a few rounds of severe weather.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:






Ya really ought to give yhe kool aid a break.
But its so HOT out there...
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Facility:
Neumayer Station III
northeast City: Neumayer Station
Country: Antarctica
Coordinates: -70.650000 / -8.250000





looks like a nice day in the deep south
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Quoting Xyrus2000:


He asked for a news site. I don't see what Fox has to do with news. Entertainment yes, but not news.






Ya really ought to give yhe kool aid a break.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

It's called pushing an agenda.

Wouldn't know. I wasn't here back then. Too bad though, huh? :-(
and you are one of the best at it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Its not like I even am purporting that this site I've never heard of is of the same rank as almighty TWC.

If this was YOUR idea that got stolen I'm sure we would hear all about the big corp getting the little biz man down. But Noooo, All Hail AGW and its friends...
Even if they(the big wigs in charge, behind the screen) are the things you claim to hate.

Seems a lot similar to the Blue Wall of Officers accused of wrongdoings; Gotta protect our own...
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Quoting seminolesfan:
Points on a line are of no substance with out delimiters of range.

I love your stubborness and holding the party line even in the face of a foolish appearing lack of ground to stand upon.

Keep fighting the good fight and Fly your True Colors proudly!
I'll try this one more time, then I'm afraid I'll have to let you go; I've more important things to do than spar with those afflicted by cognitive dissonance, you know?

1) I copied some published statistics from Alexa.

2) I pasted those statistics here without so much as a single change.

3) I noted that those statistics were from Alexa so anyone could go and check out my work.

QED: TWS's obscurity is very likely the reason TWC's principles weren't aware of the former site's convention of naming winter storms. Folks are free to spin that any way they wish, but they can't deny the numbers--and they only succeed in looking foolish when they try to do so.
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Quoting VR46L:


I guess North Dakota just dont fit the criteria LOL but thanks for the link


North Dakota is no New York..thats fer sure...
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
130. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
2000 people lose power in near blizzard conditions in Grand Forks, ND.

From Henry Margusity
I've been through a Blizzard in a Storm with NO name, It felt good to be out of the rain.
In Grand Forks you don't get NO name.



I guess North Dakota just dont fit the criteria LOL but thanks for the link
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

I've long held the believe that those of whom that view a Cable News Network as entertainment basically means they don't see eye to eye with the Network regarding their respective political undertone(s). Afterall, MSNBC is virtually entertainment to me, even though it really isn't. Link


Journalistic integrity of any big news corp is suspect, however Fox really does take it to a whole new level. MSNBC saw how successful they were, and tried to mimic it with a left leaning view (except they suck at it) and basically just made themselves look sad. CNN has tried to remain more neutral but fails for other reasons (ooooo check out our hologram!).

I don't get my news from any of the big 3. I get it from multiple sources via the web, including foreign websites as they usually have a unique perspective on what's going on in this country. I also supplement with The Daily Show and the Colbert Report, as satire often has much more "tuthiness".

That is, unless the news has something to do with science. In that case I skip news sites entirely and look for the scientific research itself. The news sites rarely get it right and dumb it down to the point of uselessness.
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Why do we have a community of people that just assume someone is dumb as a box of rocks if they just don't happen to agree with them?

I miss the old WUBA...
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2000 people lose power in near blizzard conditions in Grand Forks, ND.

From Henry Margusity
I've been through a Blizzard in a Storm with NO name, It felt good to be out of the rain.
In Grand Forks you don't get NO name.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
Euro shows the monsoon trough stretching out over the SW Caribbean towards the EPAC. Lowering of pressures over there means we will need to shift our focus to that part of the world for possible tropical development.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
124. VR46L
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Southwesterly windshear picking up in the MDR which probably signals the end to the Cape Verde Season.


Thank God ...I have had enough of Cape Verde storm remnants and for that matter the storm season as a whole, have had the worst summer in 40 years..
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Quoting seminolesfan:



L. O. L!

EDIT(for context):
Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)


(16,000,000-850,000)/16,000,000= 0.95

To the correct sig figs, too!

Can't refute my analysis with a "you're dumb and wrong" answer on this one, bud. :)


You need to take a good course on statistics. You're using simple percentages on web traffic, which is no where near a normal Gaussian distribution. Alexa tracks millions of websites, but almost all traffic (> 90%) goes to the top 1% of sites. The weather channel is comfortably within that group, along with NOAA, the Weather Underground, and even Intellicast.
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Quoting VR46L:


I actually like to see the whole picture by checking as much different opinion as possible before I form an opinion

Anyways the soon to be dead Oscar

Southwesterly windshear picking up in the MDR which probably signals the end to the Cape Verde Season.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Okay, according to Alexa:

The Weather Channel: 121
The Weather Space: 845,565


If you limit it to just "weather" sites, the weather space is way way in the back of the list. To make this point even stronger, when you do a search for "weather" in google, the weather space isn't even in the first 10 pages of hits.

Sorry, but there really is no other way to interpret the data here. The weather channel and related affiliates are all top 10 weather sites, along with NOAA and government related sites. The weather space doesn't even register.

'Top 10' and 'Top 10 Percent' are entirely different realms of success. To say that WeatherSpace being in the top bracket of websites is false because its not in the top few individuals is a logical fallacy that should not be even be purported as truth.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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