You only die twice: Atlantic's 2nd longest TS of all-time is dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

The interminable, long-lived, pesky, persistent, perpetual, never-say-day, tenacious, non-stop, I'm-not-dead-yet, Energizer-bunny-like Methuselah of Atlantic tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Nadine, finally met its permanent doom this morning, but not before bringing tropical storm conditions to the northwest Azores Islands. Sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 54 mph, were recorded at Lajes at 8 am local time, as Nadine was completing its transition to an extratropical storm. Today is Nadine's 2nd death; the storm also became extratropical for just over a day on September 22. Nadine logged 21.75 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 am today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) Nadine's 21.25 days as a tropical or subtropical storm make it tied with Hurricane Ginger of 1971 as the Atlantic's second longest tropical storm on record. Only the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (28 days) was longer-lived. About one-quarter of this year's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic basin so far is due to Nadine. According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, here are the four previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted longer than Nadine (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21.75 days

The National Hurricane Center issued 88 advisories on Nadine, and lucky NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila got to write the final epitaph in today's 11 am EDT advisory: "Bye bye Nadine...what a long strange trip its been." See you again in 2018, Nadine.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:35 am EDT September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Oscar becomes the 15th named storm of 2012
The first new tropical storm in the Atlantic since September 12 is Tropical Storm Oscar, which was upgraded to a 40 mph tropical storm on Wednesday night. Oscar won't be around very long, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already suffering significantly from moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which has exposed the low-level center to view, and pushed all of Oscar's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's east side. Wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 - 25 knots tonight, and ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 27°C by Friday. All of the computer models show Oscar ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. Oscar's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to fifteen, tying 2012 for 11th place for most tropical storms in a year. This puts 2012 in the top 10% of busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons for number of storms, since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the large number of named storms this year, we've had a pretty average number of strong hurricanes, so this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% higher than average for this time of year.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. We will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda early next week, though, where the tail end of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 219 - 169

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

219. CaribBoy
11:03 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
18Z GFS SHOWS AN OMAR LIKE STORM!!!! HEADING NNE
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
218. charlottefl
11:02 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Evening everyone.. We've now had 41.25" of rain since about the beginning of May, talk about a very wet rainy season. The ground here is completely saturated, with a lot of standing water. We could not handle a heavy rain event any time soon....
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
217. Patrap
11:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Learning to read a surface map is one of the first steps in understanding the current situations.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
216. CaicosRetiredSailor
11:00 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting Hurricane1956:
I will like to ask if this huge!!! blob!! in the middle of Florida is moving South?,can't tell from the satellite,it seems it's moving toward South Florida,Thank you!.


I believe that is Zita you are talking about...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
215. Patrap
11:00 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

A trof of Low pressure resides in the GOM into Fla.

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
214. Hurricane1956
10:56 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
I will like to ask if this huge!!! blob!! in the middle of Florida is moving South?,can't tell from the satellite,it seems it's moving toward South Florida,Thank you!.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
213. Patrap
10:53 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
"Achilles" is a cool Winter Storm name.

I'm gonna use for the first Se. Louisiana Snow Storm this season.

Achilles last stand ?

...Hmmmm?

Me tinks I've heard dat un befo'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
212. Patrap
10:51 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
When is the next advisory coming out on Nadine?


.....snicker, coff, ack
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
211. biowizard
10:51 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Hey ho - looks like we're getting a SECOND wetting from Nadine, after one of its spawned lows drenched the UK just over a week ago, and now the "remnants" are poised to soak us this weekend.

There have been deaths due to Nadine. There has been property loss. Farm damage. Misery. Destruction.

So will the US "pull" this name from the Roster? Doubt it. It's only the Brits and Spaniards who've suffered after all, so who actually "cares"?

Brian
Member Since: September 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
210. CaicosRetiredSailor
10:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
I see what they did there...

TWC moved the cheese.

: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
209. StAugustineFL
10:42 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
.
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 837
208. bappit
10:41 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:
Thunderstorms seem to defy physics sometimes around Tampa Bay. I just watched an individual cell along the line as it moved in come to a completely stop just east of me, then move northeast completely against the steering flow. It completely makes no sense. It's as if that part of the line says "well I'm not going to move over his house today, but that's ok, I'll just move in the opposite direction of the steering flow".

lol forgive me for my silliness, but its stuff like this about weather that drives me nuts trying to understand.

Just speculation, but I wonder what the upper level winds were doing. Back building is well known. I think that happens when an area of divergence aloft propagates upstream. You say the storm seemed to stop which suggests some variation on back-building (side building?)

I've also seen t-storms develop new cells on the downwind (upper level) side where the general motion was perpendicular to the upper level winds. In that case individual storms were aligned roughly east-west and moving north with easterly upper level winds. I guess that was a case of side-building.

I would think that a good look at the actual clouds and how they are propagating would give insight plus some soundings of wind directions. Not sure if you are looking at the clouds or radar, but radar at times can be like watching the shadows in Plato's cave. (Ommmmm.)
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6156
207. StAugustineFL
10:40 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


But what happens when Athena busts and the foot of snow expected for NYC turns into a cold rain, credibility becomes an issue. A tropical system is what it is, with the exception of a last minute change to track, we know what kind of weather it will bring and what kind of winds and storm surge to expect. Like I said yesterday, this is a fine line TWC is crossing and again not everyone will "know" of said named winter storm, its going to be exclusive to TWC. Also, fellow TV mets that I have consulted with at NBC affiliates said that their station will NOT adopt this naming scheme.


This is from a Fox network but, IMO, the best local met here in the Jax area I've been following for years. His opinion on the naming of winter storms:

"Which brings me to the great announcement from the "sensational" weather network (that seems to spend a
lot of time not talking weather) that the channel will name winter storms this season. My 2 cents worth: I don't like it & will not use their naming system."
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 837
206. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:35 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


But what happens when Athena busts and the foot of snow expected for NYC turns into a cold rain, credibility becomes an issue. A tropical system is what it is, with the exception of a last minute change to track, we know what kind of weather it will bring and what kind of winds and storm surge to expect. Like I said yesterday, this is a fine line TWC is crossing and again not everyone will "know" of said named winter storm, its going to be exclusive to TWC. Also, fellow TV mets that I have consulted with at NBC affiliates said that their station will NOT adopt this naming scheme.

This is true most of the time, but not always. There have been storms in history that were monsters and just weakened several categories in a span of a few hours. The same goes for winter storms. While it may happen, it's not something I would get accustomed to seeing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
205. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:31 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
i dont't know if this has already been said, but does anyone else HATE how TWC keeps putting on these lame shows like turbine cowboys or iceburg hunters or life guard? I can barly find out the weather anymore on their tv station

Really? In that case, just tune in between 7:00-8:00 p.m. EDT and 10:00-11:00 p.m. EDT today and 1:00-2:00 a.m. EDT and 5:00 a.m. EDT - 2:00 p.m. EDT plus the aforementioned times for today, tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
204. Chucktown
10:29 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There are several reasons why it is more helpful than harmful. For one, Naming winter storms gives a heightened awareness to the public. This is also the case when dealing with tropical cyclones. We all know the public pays a lot more attention to 40 mph Tropical Storm [Name] than it does to Tropical Depression [Number]. Winter storms are no different. They are more likely to listen if it has a name opposed to just a generic title. Naming them makes it easier to follow, and also allows it to be remembered. You're significantly more likely to remember Winter Storm Athena as opposed to 'that winter storm in late October'.


But what happens when Athena busts and the foot of snow expected for NYC turns into a cold rain, credibility becomes an issue. A tropical system is what it is, with the exception of a last minute change to track, we know what kind of weather it will bring and what kind of winds and storm surge to expect. Like I said yesterday, this is a fine line TWC is crossing and again not everyone will "know" of said named winter storm, its going to be exclusive to TWC. Also, fellow TV mets that I have consulted with at NBC affiliates said that their station will NOT adopt this naming scheme.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1785
203. Dakster
10:25 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
After reading this blog I have a craving for cheese... I guess it is all the whine-ing going on.

I do like a good bit of cheese with my wine.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10765
201. Doppler22
10:25 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There are several reasons why it is more helpful than harmful. For one, Naming winter storms gives a heightened awareness to the public. This is also the case when dealing with tropical cyclones. We all know the public pays a lot more attention to 40 mph Tropical Storm [Name] than it does to Tropical Depression [Number]. Winter storms are no different. They are more likely to listen if it has a name opposed to just a generic title. Naming them makes it easier to follow, and also allows it to be remembered. You're significantly more likely to remember Winter Storm Athena as opposed to 'that winter storm in late October'.

yeah... I understand why they are naming them.... not sure how itll go but I guess we will just have to wait and see...
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3860
Thunderstorms seem to defy physics sometimes around Tampa Bay. I just watched an individual cell along the line as it moved in come to a completely stop just east of me, then move northeast completely against the steering flow. It completely makes no sense. It's as if that part of the line says "well I'm not going to move over his house today, but that's ok, I'll just move in the opposite direction of the steering flow".

lol forgive me for my silliness, but its stuff like this about weather that drives me nuts trying to understand.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8014
Quoting washingtonian115:
Beautiful afternoon here this evening.It was very humid this morning and misty.That has since changed and it's just drop dead gorgeous outside with a breeze.I see Nadine has blown out her final candle and is no longer with us and neither will Oscar be in a few days...


Oh, you're so right- it's gorgeous out there. And I just found out that someone at my husband's workplace was putting together a "Men of" calendar, and he will be the October model. He was dirty from work as usual, and planting mums for homecoming when the picture was taken, so this amuses me to no end- I think it is his dismay at being a model that's got me tickled :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

To a point I agree with you. TWC is nowhere near as good now as they were back then. But actually, I think they're better now then they were a year ago at this time. They've brought a little bit of real science into the tropics this year, labeling invests and discussing the MJO, things like that. Certainly there's hype from time to time, and there's a lot of useless shows on there these days, but really, when it comes down to it, they're a TV station and they have to bring in the ratings somehow. I would certainly recommend the NWS's forecasts over TWC's forecasts, but really, they're not that bad.

I do disagree with the naming of winter storms. It's just silly. The more I think about it, the stupider it sounds. I wouldn't be surprised if they bail out of the idea next year.

There are several reasons why it is more helpful than harmful. For one, Naming winter storms gives a heightened awareness to the public. This is also the case when dealing with tropical cyclones. We all know the public pays a lot more attention to 40 mph Tropical Storm [Name] than it does to Tropical Depression [Number]. Winter storms are no different. They are more likely to listen if it has a name opposed to just a generic title. Naming them makes it easier to follow, and also allows it to be remembered. You're significantly more likely to remember Winter Storm Athena as opposed to 'that winter storm in late October'.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
Quoting opal92nwf:

The Weather Channel was never the same after the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons. Notice how they jazzed up their studio and everything after those seasons because their ratings soared from the record coverage of all the storms those years. And now they are doing everything they can do to look like we are having more hyper-active years with Katrina-like storms (like they did with Isaac). I've been noticing some of their tactics. On their tropical update screen when the Atlantic is quiet, they circle in red a couple disturbances in the Atlantic and then they circle the two or three disturbances in the East Pacific and they're like "Oh look! there are five disturbances and storms that are a concern!" They steal the activity from the East Pacific to make it look like there is more activity than there is in the Atlantic to make up for the inactivity. I just get angry watching them do stuff like that nowadays, especially compared to how chill they were before all this happened.

To a point I agree with you. TWC is nowhere near as good now as they were back then. But actually, I think they're better now then they were a year ago at this time. They've brought a little bit of real science into the tropics this year, labeling invests and discussing the MJO, things like that. Certainly there's hype from time to time, and there's a lot of useless shows on there these days, but really, when it comes down to it, they're a TV station and they have to bring in the ratings somehow. I would certainly recommend the NWS's forecasts over TWC's forecasts, but really, they're not that bad.

I do disagree with the naming of winter storms. It's just silly. The more I think about it, the stupider it sounds. I wouldn't be surprised if they bail out of the idea next year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8034
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I really don't understand how naming tropical cyclones and winter storms, two of which significantly impact the United States each year, is naming "everything".
Some people, in possession of underdeveloped senses of scale, are apparently unable to distinguish between long-lasting major winter storm events that disrupt tens of millions of people across a large geographical area, and short-lived phenomena such as thunderstorms or tornadoes. Either that, or they simply can't comprehend what they read, as those differences have been outlined here and elsewhere about a hundred times in the past couple of days...

As an aside, I'm a bit taken aback at the entitlement displayed by posters who come here--to a forum provided by TWC and Dr. Masters--to lambaste TWC and Dr. Masters. (They also apparently have underdeveloped senses of irony...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
TWC is in it for the ratings. We all see that during hurricane season. They have now found a way to hype things outside of hurricane season to gain more viewers. Giving a storm a "name" catches the attention of viewers and they are more likely to watch TWC during that time.

None of this takes away from the fact that TWC is very average to below average with its productions and forecasts. Stick to the NWS/NHC. They will ALWAYS outperform the attention-whore known as The Weather Channel.

The Weather Channel was never the same after the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons. Notice how they jazzed up their studio and everything after those seasons because their ratings soared from the record coverage of all the storms those years. And now they are doing everything they can do to look like we are having more hyper-active years with Katrina-like storms (like they did with Isaac). I've been noticing some of their tactics. On their tropical update screen when the Atlantic is quiet, they circle in red a couple disturbances in the Atlantic and then they circle the two or three disturbances in the East Pacific and they're like "Oh look! there are five disturbances and storms that are a concern!" They steal the activity from the East Pacific to make it look like there is more activity than there is in the Atlantic to make up for the inactivity. I just get angry watching them do stuff like that nowadays, especially compared to how chill they were before all this happened.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RickWPB:
Sure, why not!? They're naming everything now.

I really don't understand how naming tropical cyclones and winter storms, two of which significantly impact the United States each year, is naming "everything".
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
Quoting RickWPB:
Sure, why not!? They're naming everything now.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALBERTA MOVING THOUGH NYC AREA...
THE TORNADO ELIEZER MOVING NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM, AL..

what ELSE??? Tsunamis, auroras, solar storms, wildfires ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Blob over Florida. I would like to name it Zita, after my great-Aunt.

Sure, why not!? They're naming everything now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
TWC is in it for the ratings. We all see that during hurricane season. They have now found a way to hype things outside of hurricane season to gain more viewers. Giving a storm a "name" catches the attention of viewers and they are more likely to watch TWC during that time.

None of this takes away from the fact that TWC is very average to below average with its productions and forecasts. Stick to the NWS/NHC. They will ALWAYS outperform the attention-whore known as The Weather Channel.


Guys...remember the blog is now under TWC rule
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blob over Florida. I would like to name it Zita, after my great-Aunt.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
"NASA engineers, student interns and amateur radio enthusiasts around the world are listening for signals from a small, cube-shaped satellite launched into orbit from the International Space Station Thursday. The satellite, dubbed "TechEdSat," was released at 11:44 a.m. EDT from the new Japanese Small Satellite Orbital Deployer aboard the space station. TechEdSat measures about 4 inches (10 centimeters) on a side and carries a ham radio transmitter. It was developed by a group of student interns from San Jose State University (SJSU) in California with mentoring and support from staff at NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif. TechEdSat arrived at the space station aboard the Japanese H-II Transfer Vehicle July 21 and the station's Expedition 33 crew processed it for launch."


(Click image for more information)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 PM AST THU OCT 4 2012

PRC023-067-079-097-121-125-042215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0368.121004T2024Z-121004T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-LAJAS PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-
MAYAGUEZ PR-
424 PM AST THU OCT 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...LAJAS...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...CABO ROJO AND
MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 420 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY FAIN AFFECTING PARTS OF
THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ONE INCH OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT
CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 615 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1810 6721 1811 6719 1816 6719 1817 6702
1814 6697 1815 6694 1803 6694 1802 6696
1800 6696 1800 6721 1802 6719 1803 6721

$$

FIGUEROA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I just saw MississippiWx comment 116.It was pure epicness.
wash.......I've been scrambling looking for the word "epicness" Not sure if it a word, but I think it should be.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just saw MississippiWx comment 116.It was pure epicness.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17800
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
not this one either...gotta wait til tomorrow to see what they say

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
147 PM MDT THU OCT 4 2012

...SEASONS FIRST WINTER WEATHER EVENT SET TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...

.A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SET TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...BRINGING THE AREA ITS FIRST SNOW FALL OF THE
SEASON. THE FIRST LOOKS TO IMPACT NIOBRARA COUNTY IN WYOMING
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SIOUX...DAWES AND BOX BUTTE COUNTIES IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL SNOW GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
SNOW AMOUNTS...MAINLY TO THE LARAMIE RANGE AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...6 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 3 PM SATURDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS
TO FALL FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 10 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

* WINDS/VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO UNDER A QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATES 80 AND
25 DUE AND LOCAL ROADS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED
ROADS ARE POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Would TWC take Alaska storms into consideration (since AK is part of USA)...
right now they're getting hit by a big one!!!

no ATHENA either? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
drove by a retention pond where the water was higher than us. e cen florida watching the gulf for even more heavy rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Beautiful afternoon here this evening.It was very humid this morning and misty.That has since changed and it's just drop dead gorgeous outside with a breeze.I see Nadine has blown out her final candle and is no longer with us and neither will Oscar be in a few days...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17800
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah it looks like we are going to get hammered, I live in Pinellas and its thundering really loud here already, looking east there is a huge anvil top with a shelf cloud at the base slowly advancing this way. Moisture as very high and with storms moving slowly, it will be easy to get 3 or 4 inches of rain locally from a single cell.

How has it been down there overall for the rainy season? We had a very active one, just over 40 inches for my June through September total. We already have more rain than we normally get for the whole month of October, as typically the rainy season ends by now and October is usually fairly "dry".


We started out pretty dry, but things picked up after Debby. I've only had my Stratus rain guage for a month, so I don't really have a rainfall total for my house.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Hope you get some more rain! I only got .54 in in the past 24 hours. Parts of downtown Fort Myers received 2" yesterday


We got about 2" yesterday here in Madeira Beach with the previous day at about .30" but that was the most for us in a long while, although it's starting to look promising again for this afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StAugustineFL:


I'm hoping for a deluge of my own on the other side of the state. Cheers!




Good luck!


Tonight looks like a classic July sea breeze setup for Tampa Bay. Great looking and great sounding storms approaching me.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8014
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Hope you get some more rain! I only got .54 in in the past 24 hours. Parts of downtown Fort Myers received 2" yesterday



Yeah it looks like we are going to get hammered, I live in Pinellas and its thundering really loud here already, looking east there is a huge anvil top with a shelf cloud at the base slowly advancing this way. Moisture as very high and with storms moving slowly, it will be easy to get 3 or 4 inches of rain locally from a single cell.

How has it been down there overall for the rainy season? We had a very active one, just over 40 inches for my June through September total. We already have more rain than we normally get for the whole month of October, as typically the rainy season ends by now and October is usually fairly "dry".
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8014
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ahhh no, that team didn't have a player win just win the triple crown. Mine did and the Tigers are better.

Today has a high so far of 78F and it is beautiful. Too bad it will cool of into the 50s.
Last time that happened, the Cards beat his team in the Series! (Of course the next year..., revenge in '06 however) Still will be in the 50s when the Nats will most likely be in StL for Division Series opener Sun., but should be sunny. Warms to 60s Monday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Oscar:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Will miss you Nadine you were so fun.Hope I can live and track you again in 2018.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

OSCAR IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. SEVERAL LOW CLOUD
SWIRLS ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THAT CENTER. SINCE THE STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS
NOT CHANGED SINCE THE 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 40 KT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. OSCAR IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS
NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL PROVE TO BE RIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10 KT. OSCAR HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANTICIPATED...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPEED UP AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
DIGGING DEEP-LAYER LOW. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
UNTIL THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION...EVEN IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50
LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 21.3N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 22.8N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.0N 35.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 41.0W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Jedkins01:


Nice, I'm 25 miles away+ from the thunderstorms still and I can already here thunder rumbling from in my house, they are some powerful cells. I already had over 2 inches of rain yesterday, a very wet start to October it has been.


I'm hoping for a deluge of my own on the other side of the state. Cheers!

Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 837
Quoting Jedkins01:


Nice, I'm 25 miles away from the thunderstorms still and I can already here thunder rumbling from in my house, they are some powerful cells. I already had over 2 inches of rain yesterday, a very wet start to October it has been.


Hope you get some more rain! I only got .54 in in the past 24 hours. Parts of downtown Fort Myers received 2" yesterday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 219 - 169

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
27 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron