You only die twice: Atlantic's 2nd longest TS of all-time is dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

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The interminable, long-lived, pesky, persistent, perpetual, never-say-day, tenacious, non-stop, I'm-not-dead-yet, Energizer-bunny-like Methuselah of Atlantic tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Nadine, finally met its permanent doom this morning, but not before bringing tropical storm conditions to the northwest Azores Islands. Sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 54 mph, were recorded at Lajes at 8 am local time, as Nadine was completing its transition to an extratropical storm. Today is Nadine's 2nd death; the storm also became extratropical for just over a day on September 22. Nadine logged 21.75 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 am today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) Nadine's 21.25 days as a tropical or subtropical storm make it tied with Hurricane Ginger of 1971 as the Atlantic's second longest tropical storm on record. Only the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (28 days) was longer-lived. About one-quarter of this year's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic basin so far is due to Nadine. According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, here are the four previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted longer than Nadine (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21.75 days

The National Hurricane Center issued 88 advisories on Nadine, and lucky NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila got to write the final epitaph in today's 11 am EDT advisory: "Bye bye Nadine...what a long strange trip its been." See you again in 2018, Nadine.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:35 am EDT September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Oscar becomes the 15th named storm of 2012
The first new tropical storm in the Atlantic since September 12 is Tropical Storm Oscar, which was upgraded to a 40 mph tropical storm on Wednesday night. Oscar won't be around very long, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already suffering significantly from moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which has exposed the low-level center to view, and pushed all of Oscar's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's east side. Wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 - 25 knots tonight, and ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 27°C by Friday. All of the computer models show Oscar ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. Oscar's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to fifteen, tying 2012 for 11th place for most tropical storms in a year. This puts 2012 in the top 10% of busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons for number of storms, since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the large number of named storms this year, we've had a pretty average number of strong hurricanes, so this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% higher than average for this time of year.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. We will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda early next week, though, where the tail end of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Jeff Masters

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00z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100500, , BEST, 0, 216N, 407W, 40, 1000, TS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14778
Quoting JLPR2:


Why does it have to be a movie? They are ancient Greek gods names...
Either way there all horrid to me.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
What matters is what something is, not what it is called.

Origin

From Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet, 1600:

JULIET:
      'Tis but thy name that is my enemy;
      Thou art thyself, though not a Montague.
      What's Montague? it is nor hand, nor foot,
      Nor arm, nor face, nor any other part
      Belonging to a man. O, be some other name!
      What's in a name? that which we call a rose
      By any other name would smell as sweet;
      So Romeo would, were he not Romeo call'd,
      Retain that dear perfection which he owes
      Without that title. Romeo, doff thy name,
      And for that name which is no part of thee
      Take all myself.

A story, much favoured by tour guides, and as such highly suspect, is that in this line Shakespeare was also making a joke at the expense of the Rose Theatre. The Rose was a local rival to his Globe Theatre and is reputed to have had less than effective sanitary arrangements. The story goes that this was a coy joke about the smell. This certainly has the whiff of folk etymology about it, but it might just be true.


: ) CRS
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266. JLPR2
Quoting ncstorm:


not all of them..I know Caesar wasnt a greek god and I cant remember the list right off but Im sure there were more on there who werent..


Not a name, it is a tittle, the Ceasar was the governor of the republic of Rome.

But yes, there are like 5 that aren't Greek/Roman.
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I'm not going to say the tropics are closed for business as that will be foolish.But with the models showing stronger troughs getting something named down in the caribbean seems like it isn't going to be easy.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
Is dat North of Southern Carolina?
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Quoting ncstorm:
I am going to try to type in NC dialect from now on so people will know I am from NC despite my many posts about NC or even my username states NC in it..

Wait you're in NC, jk. You have given out plenty of signals saying you are in NC.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Maybe someone needs to open their own blog to expound more eloquently their feeling's, that seem to spill out into here like a tipped over bowl of cheerio's.

: )
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Quoting JLPR2:


Why does it have to be a movie? They are ancient Greek gods names...


not all of them..I know Caesar wasnt a greek god and I cant remember the list right off but Im sure there were more on there who werent..
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260. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.Someone must've been drunk.I just can't take the names seriously enough.As I said before they sound like names of movie characters in a Greek movie with a mythological theme..


Why does it have to be a movie? They are ancient Greek gods names...
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I miss them calling those sub thingee's Neutercane's.

Subject: A18) What is a neutercane?

Contributed by Neal Dorst

A neutercane is a small (meso-)scale (< 100 miles in diameter) low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical cyclone and mid-latitude or extratropical cyclone. A subclass of sub-tropical cyclone, neutercanes are distinguished by their small size and their origination, sometimes forming within mesoscale convective complexes.

The term was coined by Robert Bundgaard, after he participated in a research flight in the early 1970's. He witnessed a small cyclonic circulation over land, which appeared to have both tropical and extratropical characteristics. He used the term in later discussions with Dr. Bob Simpson, then director of the National Hurricane Center. 'Neutercane' was meant to synthesize the word 'neutral' and 'hurricane' to imply a hurricane-like vortex which was midway between tropical and extratropical.

Dr. Simpson observed similar circulations on geostationary satellite loops, and conducted an investigation with hurricane researcher Banner Miller. He presented a talk on them at the 8th AMS Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology in 1973. During the 1972 hurricane season, Simpson inaugurated use of the term in official bulletins, labeling the second (Bravo) and third (Charlie) subtropical cyclones observed that year as Neutercanes. (Neutercane Bravo transformed into Hurricane Betty.)

However, objections in the press to the term as possibly sexist led to NOAA management discouraging use of the term, and ordering Simpson to cease use of any further Government resources in conducting research on the phenomenon.
From then on, the term "Sub-tropical Cyclone" was used for all such systems. However, the term entered into several dictionaries, including the AMS Glossary of Meteorology (which misidentifies them as "large"), and has been used in the scientific literature.

References
Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., Feb. 1973, Vo. 54 No. 2, p. 153
Glossary of Meteorology 2nd edition, 2000, (AMS, Boston), p. 522
Weatherwise, Sept.-Oct. 2005, Vo. 58 No. 5, p. 60


Subtropical Storm Andrea in 2007

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I am going to try to type in NC dialect from now on so people will know I am from NC despite my many posts about NC or even my username states NC in it..
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Nope, nothing meaningful... None of the runs lately have shown much in that area. It's possible we're done naming storms in the Atlantic this year.

GFS at 384hrs had a 1000mb TD or weak TS, but it is 384hrs out.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Me tinks too much thought is going into this non story.

It is what it is.

Nothing more.

Catch the wind, see us spin, sail away, leave today, way up high in the sky.
But the wind won't blow, you really shouldn't go, it only goes to show
That you will be mine, by takin' our time.

And if you say to me tomorrow, oh what fun it all would be.
Then what's to stop us, pretty baby. But What Is And What Should Never Be.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Olivia in the EPAC is going to make a run at Cane status. Did the rest of the run show anything in the Caribbean?

Nope, nothing meaningful... None of the runs lately have shown much in that area. It's possible we're done naming storms in the Atlantic this year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
Quoting charlottefl:
Evening everyone.. We've now had 41.25" of rain since about the beginning of May, talk about a very wet rainy season. The ground here is completely saturated, with a lot of standing water. We could not handle a heavy rain event any time soon....



Yeah rainfall total during that period is about the same up here as well. For once we can actually say we "need" a bit of dry season! lol, Anywhere there is an open field around here has been under water since Late June, heck there is a field in my neighborhood that has fish in it, and has cat tails growing in it now, lol.

We didn't get much today somehow everything avoided my place, but yesterday we had over 2 inches.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7993
Quoting ncstorm:


the names are horrid..I would have love to been at that round table discussion when they came up with those names..must have taken place at a holiday inn conference room B
Lol.Someone must've been drunk.I just can't take the names seriously enough.As I said before they sound like names of movie characters in a Greek movie with a mythological theme..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
Quoting ncstorm:
Now I was reading some of the comments on the TWC comment page under their announcement of naming winter storms and one of the posters brought up a good point..evidently TWC didnt figure in on Insurance companies who have a higher deductible on "named" storms for damages..how true this is, Im not sure but I do know if this is the case, the insurance companies are going to love TWC if they ever get around in naming storms..

Sounds like a lawsuit waiting to happen.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
To me TWC naming winter storms is even more excuse to hype up the storm and make it sound like the next Hollywood dooms day disaster movie."winter storm Athena is going to bring 50 feet of snow to the I-95 corridor".The worst hit will be from D.C to N.Y.C were snow totals will possibly be even high in isolated spots."Snow drifts can get as high as 75-90ft"."Expect a Day After Tomorrow type storm".A surge of 35 ft will inundate coastal areas".


the names are horrid..I would have love to been a fly on the wall at that round table discussion when they came up with those names..must have taken place at a holiday inn conference room B
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
I will like to ask if this huge!!! blob!! in the middle of Florida is moving South?,can't tell from the satellite,it seems it's moving toward South Florida,Thank you!.



It's not a blob, its afternoon convection generated by sea breezes, although these cells are rather organized and deep, therefore a blowup of cold cloud tops on satellite. The atmosphere is unstable and very moist, also upper divergence exists aloft. It's just a very favorable atmosphere for convection. Thankfully, there no real dynamics in place so severe cells were fairly isolated.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7993
Quoting GTcooliebai:

The October 4th "EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION" from CPC and International Research Institute for Climate and Society:

"Compared to the past few months, the chance is reduced for El Niño to develop during Northern Hemisphere fall/winter 2012-13 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast). Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Nino, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak (Fig. 7). The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months."
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Now I was reading some of the comments on the TWC comment page under their announcement of naming winter storms and one of the posters brought up a good point..evidently TWC didnt figure in on Insurance companies who have a higher deductible on "named" storms for damages..how true this is, Im not sure but I do know if this is the case, the insurance companies are going to love TWC if they ever get around in naming storms..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To me TWC naming winter storms is even more excuse to hype up the storm and make it sound like the next Hollywood dooms day disaster movie."winter storm Athena is going to bring 50 feet of snow to the I-95 corridor".The worst hit will be from D.C to N.Y.C were snow totals will possibly be even high in isolated spots."Snow drifts can get as high as 75-90ft"."Expect a Day After Tomorrow type storm".A surge of 35 ft will inundate coastal areas".
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
Quoting bappit:

Just speculation, but I wonder what the upper level winds were doing. Back building is well known. I think that happens when an area of divergence aloft propagates upstream. You say the storm seemed to stop which suggests some variation on back-building (side building?)

I've also seen t-storms develop new cells on the downwind (upper level) side where the general motion was perpendicular to the upper level winds. In that case individual storms were aligned roughly east-west and moving north with easterly upper level winds. I guess that was a case of side-building.

I would think that a good look at the actual clouds and how they are propagating would give insight plus some soundings of wind directions. Not sure if you are looking at the clouds or radar, but radar at times can be like watching the shadows in Plato's cave. (Ommmmm.)



Well, what you have described makes sense for discrete cells. However, the behavior I observed came from a line of thunderstorms advancing northwest along a shelf cloud outflow boundary, the line was persistently severe for a while and produced some wind damage to my east. I find it strange for one small segment to get stuck, then move northeast right before reaching me, while the rest of line just steadily plowed northwestward. The updraft must have been cutoff locally at a very sudden moment, but, it it doesn't explain the odd movement. Oh well.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7993
West Atlantic:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
From December 11th, 2008 New Orleans

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Quoting weatherbro:


Well that's gonna change by next week. By Monday rainy season will come to a screeching halt as a cold ftont gives us more comfortable Fall weather.
I disagree if history has taught us something about El Nino winters, is to expect wet weather across the Southeast during winter. Remember the 2009 El Nino?
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Give me product, not gimmick. I get really tired of the gimmicks used to increase traffic/viewers. It never matters how much traffic you have. Management wants more!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
192 hours on the 18z GFS:

Olivia in the EPAC is going to make a run at Cane status. Did the rest of the run show anything in the Caribbean?
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 4 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32718
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OSCAR...LOCATED ABOUT 1170 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32718
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
192 hours on the 18z GFS:


Another cold shot for the northern US, EPAC TS, and nada in the Atlantic. I still think we could see 1 more storm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
234. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some people, in possession of underdeveloped senses of scale, are apparently unable to distinguish between long-lasting major winter storm events that disrupt tens of millions of people across a large geographical area, and short-lived phenomena such as thunderstorms or tornadoes. Either that, or they simply can't comprehend what they read, as those differences have been outlined here and elsewhere about a hundred times in the past couple of days...

As an aside, I'm a bit taken aback at the entitlement displayed by posters who come here--to a forum provided by TWC and Dr. Masters--to lambaste TWC and Dr. Masters. (They also apparently have underdeveloped senses of irony...)


Some people, apparently are in possession of an underdeveloped understanding or a short tem memory loss for the disdain felt by a majority of professional and amateur weather geeks, nerds, and fanatics regarding the generic quality of the products and the over-abundance of hype served up by TWC.

Either that, or they simply can't comprehend what they have read right here in the comments section of this blog for the last 3-4 years.
:)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
192 hours on the 18z GFS:



Tropical Storm Olivia south of Mexico. I mentioned that possible development on my blog.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Oscar's not the only one struggling with shear... Gaemi in the West Pac looks a little lopsided this evening:



Definitely a sign tropical season is on the decline for the year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
192 hours on the 18z GFS:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting wxchaser97:

Good to see you Civic, I'm kinda glad that Nadine is done for good.

I'm back from drivers ed.


I'm also glad that Nadine is gone.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting FtMyersgal:
middle of July here in Central Florida, PW's around 2.2 inches, a dew point of 77 and strong thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes.

Same here Jedkins01. PW 2.2 DewPoint 73 Just had a thunderstorm roll on in about 30 minutes ago


Well that's gonna change by next week. By Monday rainy season will come to a screeching halt as a cold ftont gives us more comfortable Fall weather.
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Quoting Civicane49:
I managed to make a blog update on the tropics since I found enough time to write one. However, I will not make updates almost everyday. But, I'll write them from time to time.

Long-lived Nadine finally dissipates; Oscar remains a weak tropical storm

Good to see you Civic, I'm kinda glad that Nadine is done for good.

I'm back from drivers ed.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I managed to make a blog update on the tropics since I found enough time to write one. However, I will not make updates almost everyday. But, I'll write them from time to time.

Long-lived Nadine finally dissipates; Oscar remains a weak tropical storm
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The Pup's of Hurricane Issac

2 Have found wunderful Homes, 3 more are looking for them.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
18Z GFS SHOWS AN OMAR LIKE STORM!!!! HEADING NNE

It shows a weak low.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32718
A storm name being retired has no bearing on its impact, ..and is a moot "pernt" to many who have suffered their wrath.
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222. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting biowizard:
Hey ho - looks like we're getting a SECOND wetting from Nadine, after one of its spawned lows drenched the UK just over a week ago, and now the "remnants" are poised to soak us this weekend.

There have been deaths due to Nadine. There has been property loss. Farm damage. Misery. Destruction.

So will the US "pull" this name from the Roster? Doubt it. It's only the Brits and Spaniards who've suffered after all, so who actually "cares"?

Brian


It's up to the country that suffered damage to request a name be retired. If no one requests the removal it stays.
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
LOL!!! yes if you want to name it Zita,don't know which way this thing is moving,it seems to me it's moving South???.


North.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I believe that is Zita you are talking about...
LOL!!! yes if you want to name it Zita,don't know which way this thing is moving,it seems to me it's moving South???.
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18Z GFS SHOWS AN OMAR LIKE STORM!!!! HEADING NNE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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