You only die twice: Atlantic's 2nd longest TS of all-time is dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

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The interminable, long-lived, pesky, persistent, perpetual, never-say-day, tenacious, non-stop, I'm-not-dead-yet, Energizer-bunny-like Methuselah of Atlantic tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Nadine, finally met its permanent doom this morning, but not before bringing tropical storm conditions to the northwest Azores Islands. Sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 54 mph, were recorded at Lajes at 8 am local time, as Nadine was completing its transition to an extratropical storm. Today is Nadine's 2nd death; the storm also became extratropical for just over a day on September 22. Nadine logged 21.75 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 am today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) Nadine's 21.25 days as a tropical or subtropical storm make it tied with Hurricane Ginger of 1971 as the Atlantic's second longest tropical storm on record. Only the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (28 days) was longer-lived. About one-quarter of this year's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic basin so far is due to Nadine. According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, here are the four previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted longer than Nadine (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21.75 days

The National Hurricane Center issued 88 advisories on Nadine, and lucky NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila got to write the final epitaph in today's 11 am EDT advisory: "Bye bye Nadine...what a long strange trip its been." See you again in 2018, Nadine.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:35 am EDT September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Oscar becomes the 15th named storm of 2012
The first new tropical storm in the Atlantic since September 12 is Tropical Storm Oscar, which was upgraded to a 40 mph tropical storm on Wednesday night. Oscar won't be around very long, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already suffering significantly from moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which has exposed the low-level center to view, and pushed all of Oscar's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's east side. Wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 - 25 knots tonight, and ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 27°C by Friday. All of the computer models show Oscar ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. Oscar's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to fifteen, tying 2012 for 11th place for most tropical storms in a year. This puts 2012 in the top 10% of busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons for number of storms, since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the large number of named storms this year, we've had a pretty average number of strong hurricanes, so this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% higher than average for this time of year.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. We will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda early next week, though, where the tail end of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Jeff Masters

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Tropical Storm Oscar:

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Quoting wxchaser97:
Maliksi is a naked swirl and so is Gaemi in the epac, Oscar remains sheared. All the active tropical cyclones in the world are either turning post-tropical or are sheared.

Time to catch up on your reading?
goodnight.
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Quoting Grothar:


An, New Jersey. I spent a week there one night.
You know you're being silly and it's really Philly.
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Quoting Grothar:


An, New Jersey. I spent a week there one night.

roflmho
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Maliksi is a naked swirl and so is Gaemi in the epac, Oscar remains sheared. All the active tropical cyclones in the world are either turning post-tropical or are sheared.
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Quoting whitewabit:
Cold front passed through Central Illinois around 3 hours or so ago dropping the temp from 77 degrees down to 50 degrees over about an hour !! quite a drop !!

Torrential rains over a 30 minute period dropped .8 inches .. Very welcomed by everyone in the area ..

I can see the heavy rain coming on my radar and that temperature drop will be nice. As for my allergies/sinuses and my breathing things will go even further downhill.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Whenever I used to drive in Jersey I'd be on the lookout for ribbets.


An, New Jersey. I spent a week there one night.
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312. whitewabit (Mod)
Cold front passed through Central Illinois around 3 hours or so ago dropping the temp from 77 degrees down to 50 degrees over about an hour !! quite a drop !!

Torrential rains over a 30 minute period dropped .8 inches .. Very welcomed by everyone in the area ..
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This blog is about as exciting as a well.......
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it's pouring here right now...
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Quoting Chicklit:

Prolly cuz they didn't think of it first :-)


lol
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Accuweather does not like at all this naming thing

Prolly cuz they didn't think of it first :-)
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Accuweather does not like at all this naming thing
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

if we pay attention to AK storms like we do nor easters i would hate to think what would happen. as for the pathetic naming thing, we would be at z by august


honestly I don't know...I expect to read a valid and reasonable explanation from TWC tomorrow in the chat...
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Whenever I used to drive in Jersey I'd be on the lookout for ribbets.

I brake for butterflies.
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Quoting goalexgo:
I had some difficulty in Northern NJ this morning driving through Small Area of Fog Freddie.


we also had fog here in upstate CT since last night...
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303. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
9:00 AM JST October 5 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near The Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.5N 144.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 15.6N 142.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Marianas Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (T1220)
9:00 AM JST October 5 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gaemi (994 hPa) located at 14.5N 116.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.1N 113.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 13.5N 109.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 113.4N 105.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Cambodia
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Quoting goalexgo:
I had some difficulty in Northern NJ this morning driving through Small Area of Fog Freddie.
Whenever I used to drive in Jersey I'd be on the lookout for ribbets.
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CQ
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Would TWC take Alaska storms into consideration (since AK is part of USA)...
right now they're getting hit by a big one!!!

no ATHENA either? lol

if we pay attention to AK storms like we do nor easters i would hate to think what would happen. as for the pathetic naming thing, we would be at z by august
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
I had some difficulty in Northern NJ this morning driving through Small Area of Fog Freddie.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
192 hours on the 18z GFS:


snow
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
Quoting Patrap:
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

When men were men. When it was a game. Oh yeah, has TWC named the winter storm in Minnesota tonight? Winter Storm Big Moishe?
Winter Storm Vito? Cant wait to find out what it will be. Yecccccchhhhh!!!!
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
159HR

snow
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
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I knew it felt wicked hot today. The dew point got up to 82 today....
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah rainfall total during that period is about the same up here as well. For once we can actually say we "need" a bit of dry season! lol, Anywhere there is an open field around here has been under water since Late June, heck there is a field in my neighborhood that has fish in it, and has cat tails growing in it now, lol.

We didn't get much today somehow everything avoided my place, but yesterday we had over 2 inches.


this is the first time I've ever said something like this, but I am looking forward to the dry season myself!
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Quoting Patrap:
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

I watched this live in 1992!
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I seriously doubt my figure would fit on TWC camera format.

Plus, we've already got a featured blog here with a Pay Pal Button to help others in times of disaster.

Maybe check it out one day in between F5 tweeks.

: )


Portlight Disaster Relief
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Lighten up Francis,,if we talking about you, we usually are jus ribbing a tad.

And if we talking about ya, we most likely like your words and style,

Have a Fresca, as we dont recall anyone saying you cant express your opine.


That's your words,not anyone's here Darling.

Its a Blog, not a way of life that leads to redemption.
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I'm off as well since I can't express my opinion(also I'm not one one of the populars/respected bloggers) on here since TWC have now become a part of the site and insulting them seems like a crime....Perhaps people think TWC will notice them and get a segment on the channel in hopes of getting famous from a blog.Any way good evening.Cheers.
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Ahhh, John Hope..RIP sir, you are missed.
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Quoting Patrap:
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

RIP John Hope...I loved his coverage on Andrew and Lenny just to name a few of them.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Good nite guys..talk to yall to'mrr!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15157
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

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159HR
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O.yeah..

U betcha


Hurricane Preparation 2012



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Quoting washingtonian115:
So I can't express my opinion on then?.Maybe I'm to lazy to write a blog.Maybe my blog writing days are over.The names aren't even official.Their from a station that cares more about ratings than actual science...


Wash..just post videos and song lyrics to showcase your blog writing skills..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15157
Quoting Patrap:
You've expressed your opinion on them 47 times in 2 days so we er, get yer drift chica.

: )
Yes and so have other bloggers several times :).Just like the ones who keep writing how they raise awareness several times...

And I know your slyly insulting me without trying to be direct about it.
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You've expressed your opinion on them 47 times in 2 days so we er, get yer drift chica.

: )

Oh, that's wonderful, whoa
Whoa
Alright, oh, now, that's wonderful

When ya hear me moanin' and groanin', baby
You know it hurts me deep down inside
Oh, when ya hear me moanin' and groanin', babe
Y-you know it hurts me deep down inside
Oh, a-when you hear me holler, baby
You know you're my one desire, yes, you are, alright
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Quoting Patrap:



Maybe write a personal blog about it then?

You have done 3, why not aim high and go fo 4 ?

So I can't express my opinion on then?.Maybe I'm to lazy to write a blog.Maybe my blog writing days are over.The names aren't even official.Their from a station that cares more about ratings than actual science...
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Quoting JLPR2:


I like some of them, they just feel mighty to me, but others like Eurydice, Anticlea and Oeagrus, to name a few, hurt my eyes. :\

Would love to see hurricane Poseidon. XD


They are saving Poseidon for when they start naming Tsunami's.
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I like "Frosty" for a Winter Storm myself.

But then again I still use Classic-Wu as well.

I'm so retro I guess.
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274. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
Either way there all horrid to me.


I like some of the greek myth names, they just feel mighty to me, but others like Eurydice, Anticlea and Oeagrus, to name a few, hurt my eyes. :\

Would love to see hurricane Poseidon. XD
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Oscar is a highly sheared tropical storm.

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I am guessing that it is a slow weather day, since we are discussing naming winter storms...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Either way there all horrid to me.



Maybe write a personal blog about it then?

You have done 3, why not aim high and go fo 4 ?

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00z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100500, , BEST, 0, 216N, 407W, 40, 1000, TS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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