You only die twice: Atlantic's 2nd longest TS of all-time is dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

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The interminable, long-lived, pesky, persistent, perpetual, never-say-day, tenacious, non-stop, I'm-not-dead-yet, Energizer-bunny-like Methuselah of Atlantic tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Nadine, finally met its permanent doom this morning, but not before bringing tropical storm conditions to the northwest Azores Islands. Sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 54 mph, were recorded at Lajes at 8 am local time, as Nadine was completing its transition to an extratropical storm. Today is Nadine's 2nd death; the storm also became extratropical for just over a day on September 22. Nadine logged 21.75 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 am today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) Nadine's 21.25 days as a tropical or subtropical storm make it tied with Hurricane Ginger of 1971 as the Atlantic's second longest tropical storm on record. Only the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (28 days) was longer-lived. About one-quarter of this year's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic basin so far is due to Nadine. According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, here are the four previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted longer than Nadine (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21.75 days

The National Hurricane Center issued 88 advisories on Nadine, and lucky NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila got to write the final epitaph in today's 11 am EDT advisory: "Bye bye Nadine...what a long strange trip its been." See you again in 2018, Nadine.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:35 am EDT September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Oscar becomes the 15th named storm of 2012
The first new tropical storm in the Atlantic since September 12 is Tropical Storm Oscar, which was upgraded to a 40 mph tropical storm on Wednesday night. Oscar won't be around very long, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already suffering significantly from moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which has exposed the low-level center to view, and pushed all of Oscar's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's east side. Wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 - 25 knots tonight, and ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 27°C by Friday. All of the computer models show Oscar ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. Oscar's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to fifteen, tying 2012 for 11th place for most tropical storms in a year. This puts 2012 in the top 10% of busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons for number of storms, since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the large number of named storms this year, we've had a pretty average number of strong hurricanes, so this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% higher than average for this time of year.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. We will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda early next week, though, where the tail end of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:


lol, are you honestly getting excited over a weak area of low pressure? It has one really broad closed isobar. That's it. Nothing remotely indicative of a tropical cyclone.
Really Cody??? please you know he wants rain don`t shatter his dream.
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Quoting Terradad:
Is there any snow expected in Denver in the next week?

Somebody today told me there was a storm coming there, but I took a quick look at the GFS and didn't see anything.

Thanks in advance to anyone who might reply.


Uh, no. 7-day forecast shows nothing.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
00GFS still shows the PR storm


lol, are you honestly getting excited over a weak area of low pressure? It has one really broad closed isobar. That's it. Nothing remotely indicative of a tropical cyclone.
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OOps sorry it's 1002MB

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1004MB in the last frame...
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00GFS still shows the PR storm
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
this is the first time I've ever said something like this, but I am looking forward to the dry season myself!


haha me too! Actually though, I'll always miss the showers and thunderstorms, but I do like the change in seasons regarding temperatures. It's nice to know cooler refreshing air is coming. I will always miss the rainy season regardless though. I wish most of Florida was higher elevation like much of Central America which is mostly cool despite the tropical region because of high terrain. I've visited there during the heart of the rainy season more than once. It feels like a cool fall breeze in Florida but yet huge tropical down pours and thunderstorms developed everyday. They get some very impressive thunderstorms down there at times. I experienced what had to be close to hurricane force wind gusts and an incredible light show during the night.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7828
362. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
12:00 PM JST October 5 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near The Marianas

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.5N 144.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 15.2N 142.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Marianas Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (T1220)
12:00 PM JST October 5 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gaemi (994 hPa) located at 14.5N 116.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.0N 112.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 13.5N 109.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 113.4N 105.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Cambodia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46134
Quoting Grothar:


Suppose Minnie Pearl answers?


Just hope you do not get Lilly Tomlin to answer!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4754
Quoting PRweathercenter:
blog update








THE ABC ISLANDS AREA WILL PROBABLY BECOME INTERESTING! THANKS FOR THE UPDATE.
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blog update






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Quoting 12george1:
Did the season ACE just exceed 100?


Yep.

North Atlantic
103.955
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356. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 12george1:
Did the season ACE just exceed 100?


It's up to 103.955 for the North Atlantic.
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Quoting Terradad:
Is there any snow expected in Denver in the next week?

Somebody today told me there was a storm coming there, but I took a quick look at the GFS and didn't see anything.

Thanks in advance to anyone who might reply.

There is a slight chance of non-accumulating rain/snow tomorrow night and Saturday, nothing major.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Can you give me a hint to who it is? I was too busy working on homework;)


:)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Is there any snow expected in Denver in the next week?

Somebody today told me there was a storm coming there, but I took a quick look at the GFS and didn't see anything.

Thanks in advance to anyone who might reply.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Did the season ACE just exceed 100?
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting Patrap:
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

I remember so well that day,watching the Weather Channel and at the same time trying keep updated with the 1st Gulf War... I admired John Hope so much...RIP
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Quoting Grothar:


I spy someone who should be finishing their homework. :)

Can you give me a hint to who it is? I was too busy working on homework;)
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
Take a look interesting forecast, by weatherPR...
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Quoting allancalderini:
I say he might peak at 60 even though I think this is its peak.

I think 50mph is Oscar's peak.

Quoting HuracanTaino:
But it sure has lots of shear convection ,,good thing is not near land.....

If he hit land some areas would still receive a good amount to rain and wind, luckily he is out to sea.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I spy with my little eye Oscar's center, oh wait never mind I can't even see it.


I spy someone who should be finishing their homework. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
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Quoting Grothar:


It looks good.


I spy with my little eye Oscar's center, oh wait never mind I can't even see it.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY...
11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 4
Location: 22.0°N 40.2°W
Moving: NE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
But it sure has lots of shear convection ,,good thing is not near land.....
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Nah he won't become a hurricane, he will get absorbed into a front. Oscar will be ate by that front tomorrow.
I say he might peak at 60 even though I think this is its peak.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Oscar keeps getting stronger imagine if he becomes a hurricane. lol the blog would be crazy.


It looks good.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting allancalderini:
Oscar keeps getting stronger imagine if he becomes a hurricane. lol the blog would be crazy.

Nah he won't become a hurricane, he will get absorbed into a front. Oscar will be ate by that front tomorrow.
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Oscar keeps getting stronger imagine if he becomes a hurricane. lol the blog would be crazy.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


BR-549

Ask for Jr.


Suppose Minnie Pearl answers?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is quite a crack.


Ask not for whom the bell tolls...
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Quoting Grothar:


R2D2.


BR-549

Ask for Jr.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4754
Quoting Grothar:


Philadelphia, now that rings a bell.


That is quite a crack.

Ooooops! Cosmic saw it first! I thought I had a crack at it.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4754
Quoting N3EG:

QRZ?


R2D2.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
334. BDAwx
there is a subjective line between hyping a storm and raising awareness by stressing its potential impacts.
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Quoting BtnTx:
I could use a Philly Cheesesteak sandwich about now!


Don't make me hungry
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
332. N3EG
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
CQ

QRZ?
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331. BtnTx
Quoting Grothar:


Philadelphia, now that rings a bell.
I could use a Philly Cheesesteak sandwich about now!
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Anyone notice the 1008 low north of hispanola on Sunday on the NAM?
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Quoting Grothar:


Philadelphia, now that rings a bell.
Allright, I give up before something cracks. You win.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
What matters is what something is, not what it is called.

Origin

From Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet, 1600:

JULIET:
      'Tis but thy name that is my enemy;
      Thou art thyself, though not a Montague.
      What's Montague? it is nor hand, nor foot,
      Nor arm, nor face, nor any other part
      Belonging to a man. O, be some other name!
      What's in a name? that which we call a rose
      By any other name would smell as sweet;
      So Romeo would, were he not Romeo call'd,
      Retain that dear perfection which he owes
      Without that title. Romeo, doff thy name,
      And for that name which is no part of thee
      Take all myself.

A story, much favoured by tour guides, and as such highly suspect, is that in this line Shakespeare was also making a joke at the expense of the Rose Theatre. The Rose was a local rival to his Globe Theatre and is reputed to have had less than effective sanitary arrangements. The story goes that this was a coy joke about the smell. This certainly has the whiff of folk etymology about it, but it might just be true.


: ) CRS

I believe Julliet is used in one of the list of names in the Eastern Pacific. I wonder what year we will see her?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
You know you're being silly and it's really Philly.


Philadelphia, now that rings a bell.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY...
11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 4
Location: 22.0°N 40.2°W
Moving: NE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Goodnight Chicklit, I'm doing some homework right now.

good boy.
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The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued an* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
eastern Volusia County in Florida... this includes the cities of... New Smyrna Beach... Port Orange... Ponce Inlet... Ormond Beach... Holly Hill... Edgewater... Daytona Beach...

* until midnight EDT.

* At 1030 PM EDT... Weather Service Doppler radar indicated very heavy rain along coastal Volusia County in slow moving storms. A additional rain amounts of one to two inshes is possible through midnight.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Motorists should deactivate cruise control and slow down in heavy rainfall to reduce the risk of hydroplaning. Leave safe distance between other vehicles.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely.


Lat... Lon 2931 8104 2922 8099 2916 8097 2910 8092
2908 8093 2907 8090 2903 8088 2884 8076
2884 8078 2885 8079 2885 8081 2883 8081
2880 8089 2925 8116

darn hope this doesn't mean my tennis courts are washed out for my 8 a.m. match...it's been raining pretty hard. Quite a lot for 20% chance. Guess we got it all.

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Quoting Chicklit:

Time to catch up on your reading?
goodnight.

Goodnight Chicklit, I'm doing some homework right now.
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TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING. THE LARGE SYSTEM HAS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...HAS FORMED A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS HAD A SIZABLE AREA OF WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT ABOUT 90 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT
AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT. DESPITE OSCAR MOVING
FASTER OVER WARM WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO MODERATE OR STRONG SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
SAME TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT
24H AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/10 KT. THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOON
TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SHOULD ABSORB OSCAR IN ABOUT A DAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION.

STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO
FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 40.2W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26814
Tropical Storm Oscar:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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