You only die twice: Atlantic's 2nd longest TS of all-time is dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

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The interminable, long-lived, pesky, persistent, perpetual, never-say-day, tenacious, non-stop, I'm-not-dead-yet, Energizer-bunny-like Methuselah of Atlantic tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Nadine, finally met its permanent doom this morning, but not before bringing tropical storm conditions to the northwest Azores Islands. Sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 54 mph, were recorded at Lajes at 8 am local time, as Nadine was completing its transition to an extratropical storm. Today is Nadine's 2nd death; the storm also became extratropical for just over a day on September 22. Nadine logged 21.75 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 am today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) Nadine's 21.25 days as a tropical or subtropical storm make it tied with Hurricane Ginger of 1971 as the Atlantic's second longest tropical storm on record. Only the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (28 days) was longer-lived. About one-quarter of this year's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic basin so far is due to Nadine. According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, here are the four previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted longer than Nadine (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21.75 days

The National Hurricane Center issued 88 advisories on Nadine, and lucky NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila got to write the final epitaph in today's 11 am EDT advisory: "Bye bye Nadine...what a long strange trip its been." See you again in 2018, Nadine.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:35 am EDT September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Oscar becomes the 15th named storm of 2012
The first new tropical storm in the Atlantic since September 12 is Tropical Storm Oscar, which was upgraded to a 40 mph tropical storm on Wednesday night. Oscar won't be around very long, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already suffering significantly from moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which has exposed the low-level center to view, and pushed all of Oscar's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's east side. Wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 - 25 knots tonight, and ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 27°C by Friday. All of the computer models show Oscar ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. Oscar's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to fifteen, tying 2012 for 11th place for most tropical storms in a year. This puts 2012 in the top 10% of busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons for number of storms, since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the large number of named storms this year, we've had a pretty average number of strong hurricanes, so this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% higher than average for this time of year.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. We will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda early next week, though, where the tail end of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Jeff Masters

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Did someone say West Nile virus?

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Quoting AussieStorm:

isn't that just showing -2mb from the mean average?

Yes, but my point is that pressure are going to be falling within a large region during the middle of October. Classic development set-up if this were to pan out.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056
417. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting AussieStorm:

We had a very nice on come through Sydney today, dropped the temps from 34C to 21C in just over 30mins.
There forecasting the first widespread frost for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this Sunday evening and Columbus Day. I will try to save some of the plants as this is about three weeks earlier than average. The extended outlook actually shows a cold and wet winter for us, which would be the complete opposite of last years virtual non winter. There have been fall seasons that were almost as cold as the Winter of 2011-12 in our region.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21209
Quoting hydrus:
Nice enough to kill me plants..;O

We had a very nice on come through Sydney today, dropped the temps from 34C to 21C in just over 30mins.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting AussieStorm:

nice cold front
Nice enough to kill me plants..;O
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21209
Quoting hydrus:
To far out, but neat to look at.

nice cold front
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Surprised the GFS isn't showing anything substantial in the Caribbean of Gulf of Mexico with these pressure falls by the end of the run.


isn't that just showing -2mb from the mean average?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
To far out, but neat to look at.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21209
Surprised the GFS isn't showing anything substantial in the Caribbean of Gulf of Mexico with these pressure falls by the end of the run.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056
Good morning...almost all of the GFS Ensemble members are showing some type of development in the Caribbean at the end of the run. Link
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408. MTWX
Quoting AussieStorm:


How about you to have few of these together.


What??!! They make PEACH Fresca??!!?? Gotta find me some of that!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
there will be more than 100 people in that chat..

When, not now. lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
there will be more than 100 people in that chat..
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would TWC eventually have something in their winter page like this..???

THE WEATHER CHANNEL IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WINTER STORM EUCLID...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO, IL.

A WINTER STORM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA CITY...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY ON WINTER STORM FREYR. THIS LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A WINTER STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD


lol
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404. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:
OOps sorry it's 1002MB



Deep into fantasy land, but still interesting.
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no ones know for sure but if we have a mild winter might be a bad outbreak of west nile virus e.cen florida
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4592
Quoting Patrap:
To washingtonian115


I apologize if you found my comment to you offensive.

Sometimes my Humor dosen't come across as I expect.

Thats a flaw in my character,

My only intent was to spur you to expound your voice in a personal blog as I find your style to be a good one here.

Please accept my heartfelt apology and Have a good day here today.

Patrick
I excpet your apology Pat.We're all long time members here and we should be able to put our pettiness behind us and move on like mature adults.The newer members see us as a example and what good examples would we be arguing with each other on here?.I'm glad we can get pass this.
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To washingtonian115


I apologize if you found my comment to you offensive.

Sometimes my Humor dosen't come across as I expect.

Thats a flaw in my character,

My only intent was to spur you to expound your voice in a personal blog as I find your style to be a good one here.

Please accept my heartfelt apology and Have a good day here today.

Patrick
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Oscar is looking mmmm ok


Possible new TC in the EPac


Possible TC developing in the Central WPAC.


An interesting feature developing in the BoB.


The ITCZ is dipping quiet low into the SPAC.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
..Mamma's alright, Daddy's alright, they jus seem a lil weird...





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Quoting Jedkins01:


haha me too! Actually though, I'll always miss the showers and thunderstorms, but I do like the change in seasons regarding temperatures. It's nice to know cooler refreshing air is coming. I will always miss the rainy season regardless though. I wish most of Florida was higher elevation like much of Central America which is mostly cool despite the tropical region because of high terrain. I've visited there during the heart of the rainy season more than once. It feels like a cool fall breeze in Florida but yet huge tropical down pours and thunderstorms developed everyday. They get some very impressive thunderstorms down there at times. I experienced what had to be close to hurricane force wind gusts and an incredible light show during the night.
I haven't had a chance to visit Central America for more than a couple days on various cruises...

As for the change in seasons here, I mostly appreciate looking at wv and seeing huge troughs spill down from the north.
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Good morning/evening, everyone. I'm enjoying a day off for rodeo/fair day here. Wish it would be the beautiful 70's they are forecasting for Sunday.
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Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning
Read back last nights part of the blog...

Comment 278
I am shocked that this comment is still here , I found it rather sexist and demeaning .The lady that the comment appeared to be aimed at, is one of the most knowledgeable witty minds on this forum . refering to someone as chica or darling when you are annoyed at them is sinister to put it mildly .. and the offer of a fresca on this forum is usually a sinister threat. When I see something like this I will say something about it..And She also said relatively little on the major debate issue of the last few days, I admit ,I said way way more.

Anyways....
Doubt Oscar will be tropical by tonight, looks like it will caught by the tail of the front within the next day


The female version of the famous "sport", intentional put downs with a little fresca sugar coating. We all have a handle and a name we should be referred to as..
It is a beautiful morning with a potential for some strong thunderstorms with the collision of the east/west seabreeze this afternoon in Florida.
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Sept Co2 is in

391.07ppm


co2now.org






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LONG LIVED NADINE...RIP...'til 2018
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NWS TAMPA BAY AREA

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
A GOOD EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE AREA WAS
WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD YESTERDAY AND THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD AND FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

After yesterday afternoon's T storms our 3 day rain total here in Madeira Beach is about 3", not too shabby :) The air this morning felt so clean .
Edit: Ooops, good morning.
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Quoting N3EG:

QRZ?

73 de N1XTV
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This is the NCEP global temperature anomalies map. It's interesting to note that the deepest negative anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere is the relatively smallish one parked over the Northwest/North Central U.S.; that is, of course, the cause of the snow and abnormal cold in the area. But that's expected to moderate into next week, with above-normal temperatures for most of the western two-thirds of the country (Fargo, for instance, is forecast to be back into the 60s by next weekend). It makes one wonder how long it will be until a real widespread winter storm swoops down across the U.S. Being October and all, it's only a matter of time...

NCEP
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13536
Miami NWS Disco

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF BERMUDA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND...AND BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CUBA
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FROM THE NORTH. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUING TO BRING IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTH.

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WOW 00Z GFS at 384HR Snow in NC!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4527
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384HR on the 6Z GFS for FL That = :)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4527
Good Morning Folks! looks like dry weather comes Monday...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


honestly I don't know...I expect to read a valid and reasonable explanation from TWC tomorrow in the chat...

yup
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TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012

OSCAR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.
DUE TO CONTINUED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE OSCAR IS ABSORBED BY AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OSCAR IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OSCAR
SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO
FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 23.0N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 25.5N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 38.9W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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374. VR46L
Good Morning
Read back last nights part of the blog...

Comment 278
I am shocked that this comment is still here , I found it rather sexist and demeaning .The lady that the comment appeared to be aimed at, is one of the most knowledgeable witty minds on this forum . refering to someone as chica or darling when you are annoyed at them is sinister to put it mildly .. and the offer of a fresca on this forum is usually a sinister threat. When I see something like this I will say something about it..And She also said relatively little on the major debate issue of the last few days, I admit ,I said way way more.

Anyways....
Doubt Oscar will be tropical by tonight, looks like it will caught by the tail of the front within the next day
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6899
373. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (T1220)
15:00 PM JST October 5 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gaemi (996 hPa) located at 14.6N 115.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 13.9N 111.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 13.7N 107.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 13.4N 104.8E - Tropical Depression Overland Cambodia
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In honor of Nadine's departure I should have found the time to post this earlier - had too much work to do. This has been running through my head ever since her first death. :P (Much better sound live / on their album. fwiw)


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Quoting KoritheMan:


He wants a hurricane. Which I'm still okay with, but not at the expense of logic and rationality. Have you seen some of his posts? As bad as JFV in terms of wishing.
I know I put him on ignore sometime but then I remember that they are people like this everywhere.anyways I think the day when he receives a hurricane he would change its wish and its mind.being in a hurricane its not funny.I understand he needs rain I also need it but the only thing he need is to wait.waiting is a virtue.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Really Cody??? please you know he wants rain don`t shatter his dream.


He wants a hurricane. Which I'm still okay with, but not at the expense of logic and rationality. Have you seen some of his posts? As bad as JFV in terms of wishing.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


lol, are you honestly getting excited over a weak area of low pressure? It has one really broad closed isobar. That's it. Nothing remotely indicative of a tropical cyclone.
Really Cody??? please you know he wants rain don`t shatter his dream.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.