TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

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The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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496. weatherbro
4:42 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Orlando should have lows in the low-mid 60's by next week.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1307
495. Jedkins01
4:09 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7558
494. weaverwxman
4:06 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting VR46L:


Then, why was the Midwest storm not named last night....
I believe there are parameters that have to be met first. They are not just going to name every snow storm....
Member Since: November 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 350
493. Grothar
3:22 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
The No Name Storm of 1991



The No Name Storm of 1993



The No Name Blizzard of 1977



The No Name Blizzard of 2006

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26421
492. VR46L
3:20 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my bad; I thought you were engaging in a grown-up conversation, not sitting back waiting for a chance at an incongruent cheap shot. But no worries; I'll not make that mistake again.


I am engaging in a grown up conversation .. I am just trying to work out why you would be so pro an idea that makes so little sense among the majority of the community .. and that can be the only reason I can come up with ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
491. AussieStorm
3:16 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Winter Storm Adam hits tonight into Thursday as a Category Two for ND/MN

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - Winter Storm Adam was declared last night here at TheWeatherSpace.com, and it is continuing to develop across South Dakota and deepen through Minnesota tonight, bringing snowfall to the region.

Winter Storm Adam is a high end Category One to weak Category Two on the Martin Winter Storm Intensity Scale, which means that in the center of the dynamics, wind gusts will reach 25 to 38 mph with up to 12 inches of snowfall.

Adam will start to drop snow in Southeast North Dakota overnight tonight, quickly deepening through Thursday morning and dropping category one conditions 6-11" of snowfall in Eastern North Dakota through Northwest Minnesota.

Because of the upper divergence within the band, expecting localized areas of 12" or higher, which ... with the wind ... will make it a weak end category two system.

Overall the system is a Category One for much of the area ... but some spots in the center of the dynamics will receive Category Two conditions.

Thundersnow could be possible at the upper Minnesota / North Dakota Border or in extreme Northwest Minnesota with the system.



The map above shows the category one and two shading of the forecast for Winter Storm, which is the first Winter Storm name of the 2012-2013 Winter Storm Season.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
489. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
488. AussieStorm
3:13 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
The Weather Channel Contacts TheWeatherSpace.com over Naming Issue

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - While TWC on-air meteorologists brag about being the first to name coming Winter Storms, TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin has contacted The Weather Channel over the credit to claim, and a response was given.

The Weather Channel announced yesterday that they will be the first to name Winter Storms in the United States, before they come. Many have named them after the fact but no one has ever named them before hitting. However this was wrong.

Last night, Martin looked in an archive that is as good as a time machine itself, proving without a doubt he named them as far back as 2004. But, in reality he started it before the year 2000 with his viewers. The 2006 archive is enough to show the world The Weather Channel is not the first to come up with Winter Storm names before hitting populated areas.

TheWeatherSpace.com Network is the same outline as Ontario Weather Service back then and Southern California Weather Authority. However TheWeatherSpace.com is the national level site.

"TheWeatherSpace.com's studio is being built in Los Angeles, California and the novelty of this site on-air is to name Winter Storms," said Martin. "As you saw in the 2006 Blog and archive snapshot of my site back then showing it was categorized and named before hitting populated areas in Southern California."

What about on a national level?

"Adopting the same method of the Southern California Weather Authority, naming Winter Storms would expand this year nationally using my concept," said Martin. "The concept has a working category and criteria system for these storms, the same criteria for snow/blizzards in Southern California's Mountains."

The Weather Channel has contacted Martin today stating they will be giving a few days to speak to the company about it as Martin is pressing this issue hard.

"We already have a Winter Storm out there," said Martin. "Winter Storm Adam has been declared here at TheWeatherSpace.com and it will impact the most across North Dakota and Minnesota tonight. This is only confusing people and when TheWeatherSpace.com's main office goes even more national it will confuse them further."

So it looks like there will be an issue between The Weather Channel and TheWeatherSpace.com Networks on naming Winter Storms, since Martin has the documentation that would change their path.

Updates will come as they are available.

Link

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
487. calkevin77
3:11 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


The northern half of Central Florida is already abnormally dry?! This after a record wet summer and some rain the last 4 days. It does not take long to dry out around here. Also, lately, each time a significant cool down appears at the end of the 7 day forecast, temperatures are adjusted back up a couple days later. Latest forecast still shows nothing lower than 72F for the next week.


Yeah we had the same type of pattern in TX last year and it was awful. Even though we have done better than expected this year here it seems like the dry shadow has established a stronghold in the northern plains and midwest. When I lived out west we would go through periods of extreme drought and then the pineapple express would open up and bring much needed precip. Definite wishcasting here but it would be great for a split stream to carry some of these storms to both the north and south. We'll see what if any impact El Nino has this winter.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 855
485. hydrus
3:11 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
1) There's no such thing as bad publicity. As I said, the most vehement reactions have been from TWC's competitors--and that can only help TWC.

2) TWC isn't by any means "ignoring" the current storm; it simply doesn't meet TWC's published (though admittedly still somewhat fuzzy) criteria for naming.

3) I'm not against corporations; I'm only against corporate policies that are harmful to the environment or people. I'm all for policies that will do far more good than bad--which, judging by the looks of things, seems to be the case with TWC's storm-naming idea.
The naming of systems seems to be gaining steam. I wonder whats next..Solar storms with with detectable CME,s.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
484. ncstorm
3:05 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well actually, if you want to be smart, I have a free period. Thanks anyways. :-)

And bash TWC? I'd like you to find one post.


Your post when you addressed me was put offish so you got back what you dished..and come on, remember your storm central tirade how TWC isnt what it used to be back in the day? I dont have time to go back to find your many posts but everyone including myself have had something negative to say about TWC at one point or another..but then again, I could be wrong and TWC is perfect..I do like TWC though just not when it comes to naming these winter storms..we got the NHC naming hurricanes, so why wouldnt we have let the NWS or HPC handled it as well..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
483. Neapolitan
3:04 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting VR46L:


I understand why you would say this as at the moment you are given freedom for your lectures on AGW on here .
Oh, my bad; I thought you were engaging in a grown-up conversation, not sitting back waiting for a chance at an incongruent cheap shot. But no worries; I'll not make that mistake again.
Quoting beell:
Some of ya'll look pretty hot in your little skirts and pom poms...
Can you please try to keep your fantasies to yourself and off this blog? Thanks! ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
482. HurrMichaelOrl
3:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting calkevin77:
Current US drought status and short term forecast. Hopefully once the pacific storm door opens the northern half of the US will see some relief.

National Drought Summary -- October 2, 2012

Weekly Summary: During the past week, a slow-moving front sank southeastward across the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous United States. A wave of low pressure formed along the front in west-central Texas near the Edwards Plateau, resulting in widespread heavy tropical rains for much of the southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the interior Southeast. Heavy rain (2 inches or greater) also fell over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, southern Illinois, eastern Missouri, and the interior mid-Atlantic region. The Upper Midwest, northern half of the Great Plains, and the West received little to no precipitation during the past 7-days. Temperatures for the period were generally above normal in the West (as much as 8 degrees above normal in the northern High Plains), 2-4 degrees below normal in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, and 2-4 degrees above normal in the Southeast.





The northern half of Central Florida is already abnormally dry?! This after a record wet summer and some rain the last 4 days. It does not take long to dry out around here. Also, lately, each time a significant cool down appears at the end of the 7 day forecast, temperatures are adjusted back up a couple days later. Latest forecast still shows nothing lower than 72F for the next week.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1128
481. Tazmanian
3:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
90S is looking good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
480. FtMyersgal
2:59 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
479. AussieStorm
2:58 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
It has been said the information will only be on TWC, here is an excerpt from their press release....

Coordination and information sharing should improve between government organizations as well as the media, leading to less ambiguity and confusion when assessing big storms that affect multiple states.


From that, I would say the NWS and all other media organisations will be using the name given to winter storms by TWC.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
478. VR46L
2:56 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why is that a problem?


Because not everyone here buys into the TWC hype ...and gets their weather from other sources
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
477. Grothar
2:54 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26421
476. NewEnglandExpress
2:51 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting TropicTraveler:
I have wondered why we don't name these winter storms. Have seen them with such low central pressure and high winds they'd be a hurricane in a tropical zone. They do enormous damage, threaten lives and in terms of warning the people in their path, I think names would help give them an identity and a definition in terms of risk. I wish NOAA would do it, but don't see anything wrong with TWC stepping into the void, if they use consistent criteria. Maybe NOAA will like and adopt the idea.

News casters in New England name Noreasters all the time. Most winter storms are bigger and more powerful then any tropic system that been up this way in 40 years.
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
475. Grothar
2:51 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26421
474. AussieStorm
2:50 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting VR46L:


But It will cross over to WU too where we will see blogs on Athena etc ...

I'll will hopefully be doing my own blogs on our upcoming Tropical Cyclone season.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
473. Hurricane12
2:50 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Love the last NHC advisory for Nadine. :p
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
472. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:49 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting VR46L:


But It will cross over to WU too where we will see blogs on Athena etc ...

Why is that a problem?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32251
471. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:48 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


oh young one..Im only against TWC naming storms and their whole policy of when and where such naming will occur..and I have seen you plenty of times come on here and bash them when they were reporting on hurricanes..and I believe your "teacher" wouldnt appreciate you texting in class..plain and simple..

Well actually, if you want to be smart, I have a free period. Thanks anyways. :-)

And bash TWC? I'd like you to find one post.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32251
470. SLU
2:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
000
WTNT44 KNHC 041438
TCDAT4

REMNANTS OF NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...NADINE NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PENDING A POST-STORM ANALYSIS...NADINE WILL TIE GINGER
OF 1971 AS THE SECOND-LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ON
RECORD AT 21.25 DAYS. AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH INCLUDES THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE...IT IS THE FIFTH-LONGEST-LASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD IN THE BASIN...AT 21.75 DAYS.

GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A VORTICITY MAXIMUM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NADINE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN
A DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 40.0N 26.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5248
469. TropicTraveler
2:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
I have wondered why we don't name these winter storms. Have seen them with such low central pressure and high winds they'd be a hurricane in a tropical zone. They do enormous damage, threaten lives and in terms of warning the people in their path, I think names would help give them an identity and a definition in terms of risk. I wish NOAA would do it, but don't see anything wrong with TWC stepping into the void, if they use consistent criteria. Maybe NOAA will like and adopt the idea.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
468. SLU
2:42 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
lol!

000
WTNT34 KNHC 041437
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...BYE BYE NADINE...
...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 26.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE WEATHER SERVICE OF PORTUGAL HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT NADINE NO LONGER
HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND BECAME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE
WINDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DISTURBACE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
AZORES...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF NADINE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE
MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5248
467. VR46L
2:41 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:
There is no criteria as to geographical location, other than since TWC is leading this, they will only issue for the CONUS. No one has said the East will be the only area to have names issued, that is misleading info.


Then, why was the Midwest storm not named last night....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
466. Bobbyweather
2:40 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
465. Bobbyweather
2:39 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
...BYE BYE NADINE...
...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
464. goosegirl1
2:39 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
There is no criteria as to geographical location, other than since TWC is leading this, they will only issue for the CONUS. No one has said the East will be the only area to have names issued, that is misleading info.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
463. VR46L
2:31 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
1) There's no such thing as bad publicity. As I said, the most vehement reactions have been from TWC's competitors--and that can only help TWC.

2) TWC isn't by any means "ignoring" the current storm; it simply doesn't meet TWC's published (though admittedly still somewhat fuzzy) criteria for naming.

3) I'm not against corporations; I'm only against corporate policies that are harmful to the environment or people. I'm all for policies that will do far more good than bad--which, judging by the looks of things, seems to be the case with TWC's storm-naming idea.


I understand why you would say this as at the moment you are given freedom for your lectures on AGW on here .

but It does not detract from the fact that uniformity on storms is what the general public need .. most people are not nerdy about weather like I am .. But I am concerned about the fact that weather conditions maybe misinterpreted .just because they are heading to the North East .and there should be no fussiness in a new policy it should be iron clad to stand up against ridicule .. which it is not and therefore is being ridiculed thoughout the social networks
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
462. ncstorm
2:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

But we can have an opinion about it, Cody. Plus it's more than the idea itself we're discussing. It's more or less how it plans to be implemented and by whom (NWS vs. TWC).


only if your opinion agrees with him..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
461. ncstorm
2:26 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, you're against TWC period, so...

But honestly, if you guys don't like the idea, don't watch it. Plain and simple.


oh young one..Im only against TWC naming storms and their whole policy of when and where such naming will occur..and I have seen you plenty of times come on here and bash them when they were reporting on hurricanes..and I believe your "teacher" wouldnt appreciate you texting in class..plain and simple..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
460. VR46L
2:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, you're against TWC period, so...

But honestly, if you guys don't like the idea, don't watch it. Plain and simple.


But It will cross over to WU too where we will see blogs on Athena etc ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
459. calkevin77
2:23 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Current US drought status and short term forecast. Hopefully once the pacific storm door opens the northern half of the US will see some relief.

National Drought Summary -- October 2, 2012

Weekly Summary: During the past week, a slow-moving front sank southeastward across the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous United States. A wave of low pressure formed along the front in west-central Texas near the Edwards Plateau, resulting in widespread heavy tropical rains for much of the southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the interior Southeast. Heavy rain (2 inches or greater) also fell over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, southern Illinois, eastern Missouri, and the interior mid-Atlantic region. The Upper Midwest, northern half of the Great Plains, and the West received little to no precipitation during the past 7-days. Temperatures for the period were generally above normal in the West (as much as 8 degrees above normal in the northern High Plains), 2-4 degrees below normal in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, and 2-4 degrees above normal in the Southeast.



Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 855
458. beell
2:23 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
90% of the population will enjoy the novelty of named winter storms. And that is all it is. A novelty.

The novelty for the remaining 10% is watching the kool-aid drinking cheerleaders trying to convince us otherwise.

Some of ya'll look pretty hot in your little skirts and pom poms...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16718
457. Neapolitan
2:22 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting VR46L:


Back fired ...the negattive reaction it is getting .. the fact they are ignoring the storm in the midwest right now..

Frankly I am surprised that you are so supportive of a private company doing such a thing .
1) There's no such thing as bad publicity. As I said, the most vehement reactions have been from TWC's competitors--and that can only help TWC.

2) TWC isn't by any means "ignoring" the current storm; it simply doesn't meet TWC's published (though admittedly still somewhat fuzzy) criteria for naming.

3) I'm not against corporations; I'm only against corporate policies that are harmful to the environment or people. I'm all for policies that will do far more good than bad--which, judging by the looks of things, seems to be the case with TWC's storm-naming idea.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
454. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:18 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Im not against the idea..Im just against TWC doing it..

Well, you're against TWC period, so...

But honestly, if you guys don't like the idea, don't watch it. Plain and simple.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32251
453. AussieStorm
2:18 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
There will always be people that agree and disagree on whether the WC should or shouldn't be naming winter storms.

My opinion is that if they did it properly and they covered the whole CONUS and not just the eastern 2/3's and with a proper criteria it would get a yes good idea from me, but until they bring out what criteria they have set down and change it to the whole of CONUS, it will only be a marketing gimmick to me.


On other things Tropical. we have two very ugly looking systems right now.

Ugly Oscar...



Ugly Gaemi...

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
452. CybrTeddy
2:10 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
See you around Nadine, in 2018.

September 11th, 2012 at 11AM - October 4th, 2012 at 11AM.

That's an insane 23 days.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
451. Neapolitan
2:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
R.I.P. Nadine:

AL, 14, 2012100412, , BEST, 0, 390N, 272W, 40, 998, DB, 34, NEQ, 150, 160, 0, 0, 1005, 110, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,

Meanwhile, Oscar's a tiny bit stronger, with pressure down to 1005mb:

AL, 15, 2012100412, , BEST, 0, 202N, 420W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1012, 220, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M,

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
450. VR46L
1:55 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Im not against the idea..Im just against TWC doing it..


Exactly my point !! Uniformity is necessary to avoid confusion .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
449. VR46L
1:53 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
What do you mean by "backfired"? TWC has gotten a ton of publicity this week, while the primary backlash has been from TWC's lesser competitors, who merely come across as petty for complaining. That hardly seems like a "backfire" to me.

But the primary question: is TWC forcing anyone to use the names they select? Since the obvious answer is "no", all the grumbling here and elsewhere seems kinda silly. If you like the naming idea--as I and many others do--use the names TWC chooses. If not, call any winter storm any name you wish, or call it nothing at all.That was stating that for winter storms in the eastern two-thirds of the country, TWC would be using the NESIS in conjunction with the RSI (the "NE" in NESIS stands for "North East").


Back fired ...the negattive reaction it is getting .. the fact they are ignoring the storm in the midwest right now..

Frankly I am surprised that you are so supportive of a private company doing such a thing .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
447. VR46L
1:49 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


So, even with all you know about how it can really help people by raising awareness, just because someone besides the NWS, or WMO came up with the idea - you wouldn't support it? That doesn't make sense, I get the fact that it might have something to do with ratings yes, if it was to come from the directors of TWC. This came from their mets, one of whom keeps a blog here on Weather Underground. Dr. Masters was also probably consulted on this idea. And I'm going to bet that they got approval from the WMO well in advance to do this. They don't just let companies do this, they have to get permission.

I've lived in the Northeast before, I was born there matter of fact, I can tell you that winter storms can be powerful and can come with little to no warning other than high chances of snow and some wind being predicted. No one prepares for them really, people always have their generators of course but there isn't a mass rush to the stores. But when it comes, people are caught off guard, on the road, in the open and ultimately something bad can happen. It's the exact same logic with naming tropical cyclones and it's proven to work without fail.

If anything, I'm disappointed this idea wasn't thrown out by WMO instead of TWC.


Sorry I fail to see the advantage of one private company calling it a name, when everyone else is referring to it a a winter storm .It will add to confusion to the general public, that only tune in to see how the weather will be tomorrow .People will maybe actually take things more lightly that TWC are over hyping things but that is JMHO
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
446. ncstorm
1:48 PM GMT on October 04, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm amazed at how some of you guys who track tropical cyclones are against this idea, heck it gives me something to track over the winter instead of cyclones in the Southern Pacific, lol.


Im not against the idea..Im just against TWC doing it..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.