TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

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The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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TD 15 remains that way on 18z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 418W, 30, 1008, TD
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Quoting icmoore:


LOL! Haven't most of the female storms this year been a piece of cake?
She or Valerie may be the exceptions.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3994
Quoting TomballTXPride:

OMG


LOL! Haven't most of the female storms this year been a piece of cake?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good day to all from America's left coast


Joe, you finally woke up.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25302
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sorry Grothar I stole the credit from you, should have read down the page, I didn't have to go far either.


You youngsters have to keep up. :) Here is another little map of all the path of major hurricanes that have hit Florida since 1851. Looks like Polk county has been impacted more than any other county. (Shaded counties have had the most impacts. Now you know of course at least 15 entries will read that they were not "direct hits"

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25302
Good day to all from America's left coast
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Quoting Grothar:
Sorry Grothar I stole the credit from you, should have read down the page, I didn't have to go far either.
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
of course oscar. just wait till we have hurricane krabby patty


Or she may be our sweet little Patty cake :)
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
of course oscar. just wait till we have hurricane krabby patty
Or Patty Mayonnaise :P
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83. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
she sure has been around a long time huh


22 days and is the 5th long living strom in history on the list enjoy your rainy day lol
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ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ....WHEN ARE WE GOING TO GET REAL AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS???? WE WANT FLOODS HERE....
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Quoting LargoFl:
true every year is different, i was talking over the long term, more tropical systems hit florida in october..19 if i remember right, the closest to that was 14 in another month,NWS says october we need to keep watching the tropics for sure
You'll like this list Largo, 117 storms have affected Florida in the month of October. And here is a statistic some might not have known, " Monroe County was struck by 26 hurricanes since 1926, which is the greatest total for any county in the United States."

Link
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Oscar Meyer Weiner
I am not sure if its looking better or worse.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3994
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Quoting calkevin77:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 031433
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 84
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012

STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA
SUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...
AND NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS OR MUCH EARLIER BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.


I feel like some sort of eulogy should be in order. She's been part of our lives for so long. :)

she sure has been around a long time huh
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 031433
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 84
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012

STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA
SUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...
AND NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS OR MUCH EARLIER BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.


I feel like some sort of eulogy should be in order. She's been part of our lives for so long. :)

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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Oscar Meyer Weiner
LOL and the jokes begin, we knew that would be coming
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Since 1851, hurricane center records show 19 storms have struck South Florida in October, compared to 15 in September and 11 in August.


In October, the patterns that produce hurricanes tend to shift. Tropical waves rolling off Africa and spinning up off the Cape Verde Islands begin to dissolve as ocean waters start to cool and winds aloft begin to strengthen.


At the same time, stirrings in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico tend to pick up as cold fronts pushing down from the north collide with the warm, moist atmosphere to the south, often sparking storms. A bi-weekly forecast produced by Colorado State University climate scientists Phil Klotzbach and William Gray predicts an average level of activity over the next few weeks, with potential rising toward the middle of the month.


For Florida, location is the primary problem with October storms — they form to the south and tend to move north, with less time and space to veer harmlessly out to sea.


“If you form in the western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, you’re probably going to hit land somewhere,” hurricane center Director Rick Knabb said. “We’ve seen a lot of storms in the past affect South Florida from the south. Think of Wilma in 2005 and Irene in 1999.”


Later season storms also can prove powerful. At one point while in the Caribbean, Hurricane Wilma’s winds reached 185 mph and became the most intense Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. The storm would eventually do some $29 billion in damage in Florida, Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula and kill more than 60 people.


Though tropical storms can form at any time of year, the official season tends to slow in November before ending on Dec. 1.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25302
EL-NINO AND LA-NINA..how do they affect Florida winters?.............Link
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Quoting Grothar:


I think I see a low hanging around for a few days. The EMCWF also has it.

something to see where it finally goes, GFS at 166 hours still has it there
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Holy mama. I take a couple of weeks off from the real world and come back to ... Nadine? My god girl you got some stamina.

This is why I love Hurricanes and Tropical Storms and weather in general. You never know what's going to happen and when it does it gives you so many new and interesting things to consider.
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Quoting LargoFl:
say GRO..do the GFS at 96 thru 120 hours and see if you can see what i saw down by the islands...


I think I see a low hanging around for a few days. The EMCWF also has it.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25302
..moving up the coast now
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Quoting Jedkins01:
The rainfall rate is extreme right now, street is flooded in less than 10 minutes, the wind and lightning aren't too shabby either. This morning and yesterday was just heavy showers, we are getting some deeper convection now. With a pwat of 2.2 to 2.4 stronger cells really unload the rain.


Yo, Jed. You're beginning to sound like Reed!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25302
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 84A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...NADINE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 32.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST. NADINE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR
18 MPH...29 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING NADINE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN THE CENTER
MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Quoting FLWaterFront:


That is true but each year is different. In some years, the cooler air takes hold earlier and indeed this does tend to dampen the tropical cyclone potential due to a lowering of the SSTs in the GOM and nearby Atlantic waters. So far in this year however, that has not happened.

There are some indications that the first significant cold front could come down into the Florida area, possibly pushing all the way through the peninsula this time, during the middle of next week. If so, this could be a double-edged sword because it could cool the waters of the Gulf somewhat but also stimulate convective development further south in the area where the front would stall out. And if that happens then whatever forms down over the Caribbean could work its way back toward Florida. Time will tell us what happens.
true every year is different, i was talking over the long term, more tropical systems hit florida in october..19 if i remember right, the closest to that was 14 in another month,NWS says october we need to keep watching the tropics for sure
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri

..first off..Happy birthday!!..and no..the season is NOT over..October is the most dangerous month of all..for Florida the nws says..historically florida gets most of its tropical systems In october..more than any other month..but..most of these storms come from the gulf or carribean and not from africa..usually


That is true but each year is different. In some years, the cooler air takes hold earlier and indeed this does tend to dampen the tropical cyclone potential due to a lowering of the SSTs in the GOM and nearby Atlantic waters. So far in this year however, that has not happened.

There are some indications that the first significant cold front could come down into the Florida area, possibly pushing all the way through the peninsula this time, during the middle of next week. If so, this could be a double-edged sword because it could cool the waters of the Gulf somewhat but also stimulate convective development further south in the area where the front would stall out. And if that happens then whatever forms down over the Caribbean could work its way back toward Florida. Time will tell us what happens.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
The GFS shows it too, I wonder if it will be tropical or non-tropical.

thanks for seeing it also..something to watch for sure in the coming days
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NASA radar to study volcanoes in Alaska and Japan
Posted on October 3, 2012


Link

Link
October 3, 2012 – VOLCANOES - A NASA aircraft carrying a unique 3-D aerial radar developed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., has left California for a 10-day campaign to study active volcanoes in Alaska and Japan. The modified NASA C-20A (G-III) aircraft, with JPL’s Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) installed in a pod under its belly, departed NASA’s Dryden Aircraft Operations Facility in Palmdale, Calif., Oct. 2, en route to Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Tacoma, Wash. Along the way, it will image volcanoes in the western United States. After refueling, the aircraft will travel on to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, where UAVSAR will image a series of volcanoes, including those in the Aleutian Islands. UAVSAR can see below Earth’s surface to monitor very subtle deformations. NASA scientists periodically use UAVSAR to monitor subtle changes in volcanic activity. The radar uses a technique called interferometry, which sends pulses of microwave energy from the sensor on the aircraft to the ground to detect and measure very subtle Earth surface deformations. The plane will then fly to Japan’s Yokota Air Force Base near Tokyo. Yokota is the staging location for science missions to collect data about volcanoes on several islands in Japan that pose a hazard to nearby populations. On its return, the aircraft will repeat the route, acquiring data from the opposite viewing direction, before arriving back at its base in Palmdale Oct. 11. This study builds on UAVSAR research of U.S. West Coast and Hawaiian volcanoes acquired from 2009 through 2011 and additional observations of Central and South American volcanoes gathered in 2010 and 2011. The aircraft features a high-precision autopilot designed and developed by engineers at NASA’s Dryden Flight Research Center. The Precision Platform Autopilot guides the aircraft using a kinematic differential Global Positioning System developed by JPL along with the aircraft’s inertial navigation system to enable it to fly repeat paths to an accuracy of 15 feet (4.6 meters) or less. With the precision autopilot engaged, the synthetic aperture radar is able to acquire repeat-pass data that can measure land-surface changes within millimeters. UAVSAR provides a measurement system that complements satellite-based observations by providing rapid revisits and imaging of active volcanoes to better understand their deformation prior to, during or after an eruption. In addition to the NASA study of volcanoes, the UAVSAR team is working with Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency scientists to define cross-calibration sites, including flight lines over disaster and forested areas, between the UAVSAR and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Polarimetric and Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar with L-band 2 (PISAR-L2). –JPL NASA
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Quoting LargoFl:
.......................Nam at 84 hours with 850 vort
The GFS shows it too, I wonder if it will be tropical or non-tropical.

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Here is the October/November forecast by CSU for the Caribbean. They say it will be average TC formation in the Caribbean.

Link
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
117 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FLZ049>051-031815-
PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-
117 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR SAFETY HARBOR...OR 6 MILES EAST OF CLEARWATER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT SAFETY HARBOR...CLEARWATER...
BELLEAIR AND SAINT PETE CLEARWATER AIRPORT...UNTIL 215 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 IN PINELLAS COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't you just hate when you put a jacket on and use an umbrella yet still get drenched by the rain? When it rains it pours in FL. It only took a couple minutes and the street was already flooded.
yeah same by me and the tree's are swaying and the rain so going sideways and Heavy
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say GRO..do the GFS at 96 thru 120 hours and see if you can see what i saw down by the islands...
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Don't you just hate when you put a jacket on and use an umbrella yet still get drenched by the rain? When it rains it pours in FL. It only took a couple minutes and the street was already flooded.
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri

..first off..Happy birthday!!..and no..the season is NOT over..October is the most dangerous month of all..for Florida the nws says..historically florida gets most of its tropical systems In october..more than any other month..but..most of these storms come from the gulf or carribean and not from africa..usually
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The rainfall rate is extreme right now, street is flooded in less than 10 minutes, the wind and lightning aren't too shabby either. This morning and yesterday was just heavy showers, we are getting some deeper convection now. With a pwat of 2.2 to 2.4 stronger cells really unload the rain.
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..................looks like Tampa has been missing all the action today huh
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How is td 15 doing better,worse or the same?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3994

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.