TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

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The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Just as a quick reminder...we are in the last two months of hurricane season. BUT, that does not mean the United States, or any other location in the Caribbean Sea, is safe. In fact...they are anything but.

CSU is calling for one hurricane in the West Caribbean at some point over the next two months. There is plenty of fuel in the area for something to become a monster if upper-air conditions permit. They may or they may not, we shall see.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
10/03/2012 1226 PM

Grassy Butte, McKenzie County.

Snow m1.0 inch, reported by co-op observer.


One inch of snow measured so far near Grassy Butte.
Moderate snow is still falling. Visibility down to a
quarter mile.

10/03/2012 0322 PM

8 miles NW of Amidon, Slope County.

Snow m2.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Storm total so far. Snowflakes were large.

10/03/2012 0254 PM

Halliday, Dunn County.

Snow e3.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Three inches storm total so far. Snow accumulation was
on grass.

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Winter is starting a little early in some places... I see that Nebraska and South Dakota might get in on some snow.... IS this earlier then usual for them?
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Quoting indianrivguy:


I'd like to see that pre 1851 file you spoke of.. hoping it wasn't another geezer joke.


Here is a link to an interesting Paleotempestology reconstruction of the the pre-HURDAT era. I will look in my archives for the other maps.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26955
Quoting barbamz:
Short hallo from a lazy holiday (today it's the Memorial day of the unification of Germany).
I just have noticed, that one of the most famous weather stations of Germany, the weather station on top of the Wendelstein (6030 feet) in the northern Alpes / southern Bavaria was closed by our national weather service (DWD) due to austerity. The station has been running for 130 years.
One of the staff members send a collection of really breathtaking photos from this station to a german weather site. If you are bored you might have a look.

Foto by Claudia Hinz / wetteronline
BBL, Barb


Stories like this are troubling. Far more troubling than the story of TWC naming winter storms. If our global society can afford to pay movie stars and the heads of large companies the equivalent of a small nation's GDP, but we cannot afford to keep weather stations and weather satellites operational, I fear our collective priorities have gone far astray...

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Same as GFS, the 12z Euro has the low north of Hispanola at 96 hours.

This low will re-curve back to the middle atlantic,this time of year nothing is going to go through the Bahamas to many fronts coming down.
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Quoting Grothar:


Nobody likes change. It was the same when we went to dial phones. People hated it. They still wanted to talk to an operator. They also thought zip codes was a waste of money and would never work.
I read this idiotic, or was it ...book called "Who Moved My Cheese" by Spencer Johnson a few years ago...Not that I liked the book, but I guess it was truthful
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My thoughts on Accuweather's forecast.



The above normal snowfall in the East needs to be extended through all of New England, and pushed west some into Ohio. The below average area needs to be trimmed back west to around Minnesota and replaced with average snowfall. And the little above pocket in the west should be removed and replaced with average. Just my thoughts.
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Quoting Grothar:


Nobody likes change. It was the same when we went to dial phones. People hated it. They still wanted to talk to an operator. They also thought zip codes was a waste of money and would never work.


yea, just like those doubters when you invented the wheel eh... you showed them. Gro's first race...

Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587
Snowfall totals are already beginning to roll in.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Portions of Canada are going to see over a foot of snow on Friday and Saturday.


The US won't make out too poorly either.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT WED OCT 3 2012

MTZ048-040000-
/O.UPG.KTFX.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-121004T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KTFX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-121004T0000Z/
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...CHOTEAU
936 AM MDT WED OCT 3 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT
THIS EVENING.

* TIMING AND MAIN IMPACT: PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH
TODAY. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED BELOW 6000 FEET...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE
6000 FEET.


* WINDS AND VISIBILITY: NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITIES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: TRAVEL THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY BECOME
DIFFICULT WITH SNOW OR SLUSH COVERED ROADS. THOSE WITH
RECREATION PLANS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
CONDITIONS.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE: CHOTEAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

FOR SPECIFIC ROAD AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN MONTANA...DIAL 5 1 1.

&&

$$
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Quoting plutorising:
the weather channel's facebook page is getting a lot of negative comments on their we-name-the-storms post.


Nobody likes change. It was the same when we went to dial phones. People hated it. They still wanted to talk to an operator. They also thought zip codes was a waste of money and would never work.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26955
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DEFINED BY SEVERAL SWIRLS
REVOLVING AROUND A COMMON POINT...WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 80 N MI
TO THE WEST OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS
ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
INFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 21.2N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 22.9N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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The current scene from Dickinson, North Dakota.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That would be so frustrating, lol.

Good afternoon everyone.
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Quoting Grothar:


You youngsters have to keep up. :) Here is another little map of all the path of major hurricanes that have hit Florida since 1851. Looks like Polk county has been impacted more than any other county. (Shaded counties have had the most impacts. Now you know of course at least 15 entries will read that they were not "direct hits"



I'd like to see that pre 1851 file you spoke of.. hoping it wasn't another geezer joke.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587
Here in Madeira Beach we have already recieved about 2.10" of rain today with what looks like a good bit more to come.
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Quoting goalexgo:
Im still very upset over yesterday's insane decision to start naming winter storms. I thought there would be a few purests here who felt the same way. I am willing to do whatever needs to be done to stop this infamnia from happening.

Names must be reserved only for tropical cyclones. This seems to be another way TWC rokerizes its product. I will never forgive them for the day that, during a major upper-midwestern tornado outbreak...they went with "A Flick and a Forecast".
I see this as an extension of that.

What's next? Naming good weather systems? ( Hudson Bay High Pressure Center Marv?).

Who's with me?
I am,with you, winter storms need to be classify as winter storms. Hurricanes has been name by most people in the caribbean before the U.S. existed as a country. In the island of Puerto Rico,"La Española",Cuba, for our Catholic heritage, we called them by the name of the Saints in the catholic calendar,since the 16 century.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Reminds me how Polk County, and also Orlando were afflicted much greater than the Tampa Bay are from Charley, they also received a worse strike from the other hurricanes of 2004 than us.

I have one one problem with that map though, its a bit old :) it missed hurricane Jeanne, which hit the east coast of Florida as a category 3 in 2004. Also, don't forget hurricane Wilma.


Interestingly enough though, when you include the mid 180's into the early 1900's period, it doesn't make the Tampa Bay area look so spared. However, there are other parts of the state even going back to the 1800's that did not have a major strike.


It's also interesting to see how tropical cyclones tend to have had "favored zones" over the years where there landfalls bunch up. It looks like Tampa Bay up into Hernando county was actually once one of those zones where several struck, scary indeed.


Yes, the map only goes to 2004. I tried to find the other one I had that went to 2010, but couldn't find it. The Tampa Bay area had several brushes with storms. And no, I can't forget Wilma, (It went right over my house :)

We really have been very lucky over the past few years.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26955
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Water vapor

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Infrared
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wow! Strong winds and heavy rain coming in, I just lost my chairs on my front porch, as well as my garbage cans that I so ignorantly forgot to bring in.



Sounds like the same line of convection that blew my trash cans around and flew tree debris through the air. Most convection has been tame since yesterday. But that was a pretty strong cell, intense lightning and wind came with it, some street flooding for me as well.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Portions of Canada are going to see over a foot of snow on Friday and Saturday.

That also looks like a blown up image of a super cell thunderstorm with a hook echo. Anyway it is getting cooler and cooler and closer to winter.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7961
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Portions of Canada are going to see over a foot of snow on Friday and Saturday.



Athena! Haha.
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Portions of Canada are going to see over a foot of snow on Friday and Saturday.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting Grothar:


You youngsters have to keep up. :) Here is another little map of all the path of major hurricanes that have hit Florida since 1851. Looks like Polk county has been impacted more than any other county. (Shaded counties have had the most impacts. Now you know of course at least 15 entries will read that they were not "direct hits"



Reminds me how Polk County, and also Orlando were afflicted much greater than the Tampa Bay are from Charley, they also received a worse strike from the other hurricanes of 2004 than us.

I have one one problem with that map though, its a bit old :) it missed hurricane Jeanne, which hit the east coast of Florida as a category 3 in 2004. Also, don't forget hurricane Wilma.


Interestingly enough though, when you include the mid 180's into the early 1900's period, it doesn't make the Tampa Bay area look so spared. However, there are other parts of the state even going back to the 1800's that did not have a major strike.


It's also interesting to see how tropical cyclones tend to have had "favored zones" over the years where there landfalls bunch up. It looks like Tampa Bay up into Hernando county was actually once one of those zones where several struck, scary indeed.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it likely will be at 5am.


Nadine's winds are still slowly dropping along with pressure rising. I think Nadine should be Nadone at 11pm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7961
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it likely will be at 5am.

That means she would not beat Kyle:(
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Quoting RitaEvac:




News media fails with truth, sugar coat everything.


Hoping that with the recent widespread rains that took place over the weekend, that tomorrow's weekly report shows some improvement.
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Quoting RitaEvac:




News media fails with truth, sugar coat everything.
Yeah, they're a little low. Your drought monitor says, Texas drought: 78.73%, extreme or greater 30.09%. (ADD: I think that news graphic used the previous week's data.)

Oklahoma Drought: 100%, extreme or greater 95.33%.
Neener. lol

At least Texas beat Oklahoma State on the football field last Saturday. Well, barely.
;)

Tomorrow's drought monitor should look better for Texas and better in small spots for OK - thanks to Norman, the TS.
Image added:
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I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it likely will be at 5am.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That would be so frustrating, lol.

Good afternoon everyone.

Good afternoon MA, I would be pretty frustrated too if 96L doesn't get named and we don't get Oscar.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7961
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE REGION.


BORING BORING BORING BORING BORING CANT NO MORE!!!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 15 may be the 1st TD. Wish may not get a name

That would be so frustrating, lol.

Good afternoon everyone.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wow! Strong winds and heavy rain coming in, I just lost my chairs on my front porch, as well as my garbage cans that I so ignorantly forgot to bring in.


Well, you cannot throw the chairs away until you get your garbage cans back. Stay safe and out of the weather until then.
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News media fails with truth, sugar coat everything.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 15 may be the 1st TD. Wish may not get a name
I agree it looks like the curse of this list will continue unless this td is named today or tomorrow morning.
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Same as GFS, the 12z Euro has the low north of Hispanola at 96 hours.

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Wow! Strong winds and heavy rain coming in, I just lost my chairs on my front porch, as well as my garbage cans that I so ignorantly forgot to bring in.
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Much colder air coming down the plains and into TX this weekend. Fall has come.
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Charley wasn't major by the time it hit central florida, and it was pretty small.
Jeanne, Francis, 2005 had several brushes, even TS fay in 2008 had a major impact on central Florida.
I don't think the history of "Major" hurricanes tracking through central florida realy grasps the severity or frequency of impacts to the area.
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TD 15 may be the 1st TD. Wish may not get a name
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the weather channel's facebook page is getting a lot of negative comments on their we-name-the-storms post.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
You'll like this list Largo, 117 storms have affected Florida in the month of October. And here is a statistic some might not have known, " Monroe County was struck by 26 hurricanes since 1926, which is the greatest total for any county in the United States."

Link


Florida certainly is quite vulnerable to tropical cyclone strikes in October. The question always is though, what kind of October are we going to have? Is it going to be a warmer than average October, with high SSTs in the Gulf and Atlantic waters, low wind shear and above-average moisture and warmth hanging around at higher latitudes? Or will it be a cooler than average October with frequent cold fronts pushing through, lowered SSTs in the GOM and Atlantic and high wind shear values, particularly above about latitude 22N?

Clearly it is the warmer than average seasons which offer the greatest threat for storms in Florida. The October of 2005 was a good example of this, when Wilma made its way across South Florida as a strong Cat 3 hurricane. But there were many years during the cooler short term climate cycle of the 1970s and early 1980s when tropical cyclones were not a threat during October because the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that far north were too hostile to support intense tropical systems.

Also, even though Florida is vulnerable to October cyclones the potential for landfall shifts location later in the season and on average, October storms are not as fierce as those of August and September. In August and September the prevailing steering currents favor storms which make landfall on the Southeast coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and the Western Florida Panhandle, as well as other areas outside of the state such as the Western Gulf Coast. In October it is the Western Coast of Florida which becomes more vulnerable along with the Keys and South Florida in general. But the storms during this period are much more likely to approach the state from the South and Southwest rather than from the East and SE, such as is the case earlier in the season.

During those years when the atmospheric and oceanic conditions near Florida are not favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes, the potentially dangerous Caribbean storms tend to turn northeast while they are still below Cuba and then move away from the state and out over the open Atlantic waters.
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Im still very upset over yesterday's insane decision to start naming winter storms. I thought there would be a few purests here who felt the same way. I am willing to do whatever needs to be done to stop this infamnia from happening.

Names must be reserved only for tropical cyclones. This seems to be another way TWC rokerizes its product. I will never forgive them for the day that, during a major upper-midwestern tornado outbreak...they went with "A Flick and a Forecast".
I see this as an extension of that.

What's next? Naming good weather systems? ( Hudson Bay High Pressure Center Marv?).

Who's with me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Short hallo from a lazy holiday (today it's the Memorial day of the unification of Germany).
I just have noticed, that one of the most famous weather stations of Germany, the weather station on top of the Wendelstein (6030 feet) in the northern Alpes / southern Bavaria was closed by our national weather service (DWD) due to austerity. The station has been running for 130 years.
One of the staff members send a collection of really breathtaking photos from this station to a german weather site. If you are bored you might have a look.

Foto by Claudia Hinz / wetteronline
BBL, Barb
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Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Met Office threatened with legal action over 'pessimistic' forecasts

Link
I guess the UK believes their Meterolgists more than America. I always look at the radar before falling for the Miami weather forecasts. They say South Florida, which usually does not include the keys in the general forecast.
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TD 15 remains that way on 18z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 418W, 30, 1008, TD
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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