TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

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The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would hope they would put public safety above competition.


Well then shouldn't the Weather Service promote that, its not like the media isn't warning you about a winter storm. If a private forecasting service wants to drive you to their product, its not the responsibility of other media to follow suit. What's next, TWC starts issuing warnings when they don't agree with the NWS? This is a dangerous line TWC is crossing with this winter storm naming. Just my 2 cents.
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
oh wait only TWC is namming them?

Yes, only TWC.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
.."your so Bain, you probably think this entries about you"...
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Quoting Grothar:



I bet "Grumpy" came easy to her.


LOL :)))
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Quoting Grothar:



I bet "Grumpy" came easy to her.



You're funny like a toothache.


snort snort chuckle chuckle....
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..and the Oscar goe's to..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it likely will be at 5am.



:( yes, been preparing myself all day! LOL if not for her just think how boring the Atlantic woulda been these last weeks! Was hoping for serious record, but aint too shabby still
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sleepy, Dopey, Doc, Sneezy

that was all I could think of on the spur of the moment.



EDIT: My wife thought of 2 more..Happy and Grumpy.
Is the last one "Festus"?
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Quoting Chucktown:


Competition (especially the media) will refrain from using any of The Weather Channels naming of storms with the exception of Comcast and GE related media outlets. If someone say from FOX decides to show Winter Storm Plato, then they would have to credit TWC and that is never good business. Its like McDonalds serving a Whopper.

I would hope they would put public safety above competition.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Quoting Chucktown:


Competition (especially the media) will refrain from using any of The Weather Channels naming of storms with the exception of Comcast and GE related media outlets. If someone say from FOX decides to show Winter Storm Plato, then they would have to credit TWC and that is never good business. Its like McDonalds serving a Whopper.
"With Cheese"?
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sleepy, Dopey, Doc, Sneezy

that was all I could think of on the spur of the moment.



EDIT: My wife thought of 2 more..Happy and Grumpy.



I bet "Grumpy" came easy to her.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I wouldn't count on that. TWC is the nation's largest and best-known non-governmental weather provider, and it's available in tens of millions of households. So it wouldn't surprise me at all were some broadcast and internet outlets unaffiliated with TWC to pick up the names. Say, after a number of their own viewers start asking, "Hey, what do you guys at Intellicast think will happen with WS Plato?"

At any rate, here's what the NWS has to say about the TWC naming plan:

"The National Weather Service has no opinion about private weather enterprise products and services. A winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins. While the National Weather Service does not name winter storms, we do rate major winter storms after the fact."

And that seems about as non-committal as possible, no?


Competition (especially the media) will refrain from using any of The Weather Channels naming of storms with the exception of Comcast and GE related media outlets. If someone say from FOX decides to show Winter Storm Plato, then they would have to credit TWC and that is never good business. Its like McDonalds serving a Whopper.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Gro..........When I read the "Cheese" book maybe 15 years ago I was working for this controlling company... At the time everyone was pissed and was forced to read it... Now I think it really made sense


Oh, it probably did. I don't like all motivational books, but this one did characterize the resistance to change. It is similar to a work project developed in the US but used widely in Japan. It is called the "Quality Circle" where new ideas are discussed in the workplace.

It was similar to when this site was changed last year. Everyone was complaining. Now, I don't think anybody even remembers what the old one looked like unless they go back to wunderground classic.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe if it can organize a little more it would be name Oscar it better do it fast though.


Agreed. It has until today or tomorrow to organize and become Oscar. Some dry air and wind shear are both disrupting the organization of the cyclone.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sleepy, Dopey, Doc, Sneezy

that was all I could think of on the spur of the moment.
and Kirstie and Bristol.
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Sleepy, Dopey, Doc, Sneezy

that was all I could think of on the spur of the moment.



EDIT: My wife thought of 2 more..Happy and Grumpy.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


'Who moved my Cheese' was picked up by my Parish for the schools and we had multiple workshops about it. Last year we lent our books to another school for new teachers. We still joke with each other about moving someone's cheese.

We had a beautiful day for our Rodeo day for the kids, complete with horses and roping. One of the teachers is an avid competitor.
The company I worked for "made" us put the sponge rubber "toy" that looked like a wedge of cheese on our desk... After it started to have a rancid odor we were "allowed" to dispose of it.
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Neo, I have a couple questions maybe you can answer.

156. Neapolitan 9:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
I wouldn't count on that. TWC is the nation's largest and best-known non-governmental weather provider, and it's available in tens of millions of households. So it wouldn't surprise me at all were some broadcast and internet outlets unaffiliated with TWC to pick up the names. Say, after a number of their own viewers start asking, "Hey, what do you guys at Intellicast think will happen with WS Plato?"

Isn't Intellicast part of WSI, therefore already part of TWCC?

156. Neapolitan 9:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
That's a nasty blast of cold moving southward through the Northern Plains.

Is it a Low causing the snow up in MT, WY and ND or a cold High pressure area?

Click-click image for larger map
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174. flsky
Just got slammed here in Ponce Inlet, FL. Very hard rain, lots of thunder and lightning. Fun stuff!
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Quoting Grothar:


I enjoyed the book. That is why I am never fully opposed to change. Ever since I read Emerson, I always remember the line. "A foolish consistency is the hobgolin of little minds."



'Who moved my Cheese' was picked up by my Parish for the schools and we had multiple workshops about it. Last year we lent our books to another school for new teachers. We still joke with each other about moving someone's cheese.

We had a beautiful day for our Rodeo day for the kids, complete with horses and roping. One of the teachers is an avid competitor.
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The seven dwarfs....Mama Smurf, Pappa Smurf...Hmmmm , 5 more
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Quoting Grothar:


I enjoyed the book. That is why I am never fully opposed to change. Ever since I read Emerson, I always remember the line. "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."

Gro..........When I read the "Cheese" book maybe 15 years ago I was working for this controlling company... At the time everyone was pissed and was forced to read it... Now I think it really made sense
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Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Storm Nadine:



Tropical Depression Fifteen:

Maybe if it can organize a little more it would be name Oscar it better do it fast though.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3994
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I read this idiotic, or was it ...book called "Who Moved My Cheese" by Spencer Johnson a few years ago...Not that I liked the book, but I guess it was truthful


I enjoyed the book. That is why I am never fully opposed to change. Ever since I read Emerson, I always remember the line. "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It'd be more fun toname 'em after cartoon characters.

I'd start with the 7 dwarves from Snowwhite and when those were done, move on to Looneytunes characters.


I think starting with Loony Tunes would seem much more appropriate. LOL
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It'd be more fun to name 'em after cartoon characters.

I'd start with the 7 dwarves from Snowhite and when those were done, move on to Looneytunes characters.
Without cheating Doug name all seven......I dare ya
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It'd be more fun to name 'em after cartoon characters.

I'd start with the 7 dwarves from Snowhite and when those were done, move on to Looneytunes characters.
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Tropical Storm Nadine:



Tropical Depression Fifteen:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Normally, I wouldn't go as far to say we could see a monster in the Caribbean but I disagree this year. The TCHP levels are insane in the Caribbean and with fronts coming down we could see some serious development in the SW Caribbean this year. It's not over yet folks, we have one more show I think. Think Ida 2009.
Wilma comes to mind
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I thought the dusting of snow we received a couple weeks ago was an anomaly, I guess it wasn't.

A new snow storm is expected to drop 10 to 12+ inches of snow, welcome to northern minnesota.

img src=" Winter Storm Warning Statement as of 3:30 PM CDT on October 03, 2012
... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 1 am Thursday to 10 am CDT
Friday...

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow... which is in effect
from 1 am Thursday to 10 am CDT Friday. The Winter Storm Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Timing... rain is expected to change to snow on Thursday
morning... and continue into Friday morning. The snow may be
heavy at times.

* Winds... north winds will increase on Thursday and become 20 to
30 mph with higher gusts... continuing into early Friday morning.

* Visibilities... may be near zero within falling and blowing
snow.

* Snow accumulations... 10 to 12 inches are possible.

* Wind chill values... in the mid to upper teens.

* Other impacts... heavy snow on tree branches and power lines may
cause them to break.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight... food... and
water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
">

Btw The Weather Channel can name their first storm I guess. What a joke they are.
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Quoting Doppler22:
Winter is starting a little early in some places... I see that Nebraska and South Dakota might get in on some snow.... IS this earlier then usual for them?


It's a bit on the early side, but not unprecedented:

Earliest 5 Dates of first snowfall for Lincoln, Nebraska:
1) Sep 29, 1985
2) Oct 9, 1970
3) Oct 10, 2009
4) Oct 10, 1987
5) Oct 18, 1976

From: Date of the First Measurable Snowfall in Lincoln, Each Autumn 1948 to 2011 Ranked

And for North Dakota, the USGS says this:

"The first significant snowfall of the season usually occurs during the middle or latter part of November. However, measurable amounts of snow (0.1 inch or more) may fall in September about once in every 10 years in the west and north, but only rarely in the southeast."

Source
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just as a quick reminder...we are in the last two months of hurricane season. BUT, that does not mean the United States, or any other location in the Caribbean Sea, is safe. In fact...they are anything but.

CSU is calling for one hurricane in the West Caribbean at some point over the next two months. There is plenty of fuel in the area for something to become a monster if upper-air conditions permit. They may or they may not, we shall see.



Normally, I wouldn't go as far to say we could see a monster in the Caribbean but I disagree this year. The TCHP levels are insane in the Caribbean and with fronts coming down we could see some serious development in the SW Caribbean this year. It's not over yet folks, we have one more show I think. Think Ida 2009.
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That's a nasty blast of cold moving southward through the Northern Plains. A pair of examples:

--Imperial, Nebraska is at 90 now after reaching a high of 93. Tonight's expected low: 37. Chance of snow on Friday/Saturday.

--Sioux Falls, SD, reached into the upper 70s today. Tomorrow night's predicted low: 29.

cold

From the Hydrometeorological Center:

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

Youza...




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Quoting Chucktown:


Don't forget, its not a widespread change. It will be exclusive to The Weather Channel. If you don't watch The Weather Channel or go to their website, you will never even hear of any named winter storms.
I wouldn't count on that. TWC is the nation's largest and best-known non-governmental weather provider, and it's available in tens of millions of households. So it wouldn't surprise me at all were some broadcast and internet outlets unaffiliated with TWC to pick up the names. Say, after a number of their own viewers start asking, "Hey, what do you guys at Intellicast think will happen with WS Plato?"

At any rate, here's what the NWS has to say about the TWC naming plan:

"The National Weather Service has no opinion about private weather enterprise products and services. A winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins. While the National Weather Service does not name winter storms, we do rate major winter storms after the fact."

And that seems about as non-committal as possible, no?
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.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
My thoughts on Accuweather's forecast.



The above normal snowfall in the East needs to be extended through all of New England, and pushed west some into Ohio. The below average area needs to be trimmed back west to around Minnesota and replaced with average snowfall. And the little above pocket in the west should be removed and replaced with average. Just my thoughts.

I would be happy if it got pushed into Florida
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh yes you will Chuck


IMO we'll have no clue until the first storm is named by TWC. I'm going to grab some popcorn and see how things unfold.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Don't forget, its not a widespread change. It will be exclusive to The Weather Channel. If you don't watch The Weather Channel or go to their website, you will never even hear of any named winter storms.
Oh yes you will Chuck
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Quoting Grothar:


Nobody likes change. It was the same when we went to dial phones. People hated it. They still wanted to talk to an operator. They also thought zip codes was a waste of money and would never work.


Don't forget, its not a widespread change. It will be exclusive to The Weather Channel. If you don't watch The Weather Channel or go to their website, you will never even hear of any named winter storms.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just as a quick reminder...we are in the last two months of hurricane season. BUT, that does not mean the United States, or any other location in the Caribbean Sea, is safe. In fact...they are anything but.

CSU is calling for one hurricane in the West Caribbean at some point over the next two months. There is plenty of fuel in the area for something to become a monster if upper-air conditions permit. They may or they may not, we shall see.

wx13............October is a scary month for us here in south Florida
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Just as a quick reminder...we are in the last two months of hurricane season. BUT, that does not mean the United States, or any other location in the Caribbean Sea, is safe. In fact...they are anything but.

CSU is calling for one hurricane in the West Caribbean at some point over the next two months. There is plenty of fuel in the area for something to become a monster if upper-air conditions permit. They may or they may not, we shall see.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.