TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

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The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Cold front descending across the Front Range:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder what the TWC will name this winter storm?

I bet they don't as it does not effect enough people. which will prove the point it is not about the storm but about how many people they can market the storm to, it is all about money
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.


You better get to work then...

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10655
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Who's getting two feet of snow that I should be receiving as of now?.Montana? no fair!.
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Quoting nymore:
This is mind boggling up to 2 feet of snow in Minnesota. It is a little Early for this.

Don't believe me check the forecast for Williams Mn.

Wow


Yeah it is early for that, I had to check the forecast just to be sure and yup.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Et tu, Brute?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
This is mind boggling up to 2 feet of snow in Minnesota. It is a little Early for this.

Don't believe me check the NWS forecast for Williams Mn.

Wow

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When a winter storm is threatening I have never tuned in TWC.I've always watched my local news station(s) for coverage and accurate information.
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Here is some sample TWC coverage during the April 14 tornado outbreak from earlier this year.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting CosmicEvents:
This opinion I find hard to believe as one that you really believe. Your backing of a private(or non-govermental, as you said) company in this matter just doesn't ring true. Makes me question whether you'd extend the same "let's let boys be boys" attitude if it was Accuweather instead of TWC. There's a scent of disambiguation in the air. I personally think that there's less than a 1% chance that the public is gonna' take to these names and I just can't foresee folks thinking the other channels are "lesser" because they're not calling the snow/ice event Plato, Brutus, Cletus, Goofy. I guess time will tell how the public reacts to the names when they happen, though I'd say it's a 30% probability that TWC ditches the idea before it starts and we'll never know.
I can't take any of those names serious enough.They sound like characters in a Hollywood movie.They're not really catchy either.Some of the names IMO are super ugly and hard to pronounce that I'll probably refer to them by a numerical system(storm 1 storm 2)lol.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.

Well right now I should be typing an English essay but I am instead on WU.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.

I watch it for severe weather, hurricanes, and winter weather. I'm not home during the day time anyway so I don't see the other programs they usually show or just watch something else. TWC is still useful for stuff and getting rid of it idk. Of course even if I wanted to I can't control my parents.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a lot of eyeballs that will be tuning in during this winter's WS Brutus and wondering why those lesser news outlets with smaller audiences are just calling it "that big Northeast snowstorm". ;-)
This opinion I find hard to believe as one that you really believe. Your backing of a private(or non-govermental, as you said) company in this matter just doesn't ring true. Makes me question whether you'd extend the same "let's let boys be boys" attitude if it was Accuweather or FOX instead of TWC. There's a scent of disambiguation in the air. I personally think that there's less than a 1% chance that the public is gonna' take to these names and I just can't foresee folks thinking the other channels are "lesser" because they're not calling the snow/ice event Plato, Brutus, Cletus, Goofy. I guess time will tell how the public reacts to the names when they happen, though I'd say it's a 30% probability that TWC ditches the idea before it starts and we'll never know.
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I got my driving permit, clear the roads. I see TD15 is barely forecasted to become Oscar and Nadine continues to weaken.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Sometimes others actually listen. After the complaining, wunderground agreed to leave the classic site up and accessible. I'm glad they did.

One controls his/her own cheese.
:)


Now that's a classic.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Really? That's funny. I just made a $100 bet that you would say you made a bet and I won.


LOL. You're growing up, TA. I can't tease you like I used to.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Have you ever watched them during Severe Weather coverage?
Yes.They are only useful for that(Well IMO they've not been that good on hurricane coverage as of late).But the server weather season varies from year to year.It can but super active(like 2003,2004 and 2011) or really quite like this years server weather season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.


what? and missing out on your local on the 8's..shame on you Wash..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
O Lordy..

LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.

Have you ever watched them during Severe Weather coverage?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
223. wxmod
Jet smog over So Calif, So Nevada, Arizona and Eastern New Mexico today. Late afternoon MODIS. The GOES image I posted this morning shows it better. There's a lot of talk right to the top of the food chain now about geoengineering the planet's atmosphere because of the melted arctic sea. Your right to natural air and water are about to be removed forever, without your discussion. One day soon, you will wake up to white sky in every direction. No more blue sky. No more starry nights. Period. And soon after, you won't be able to breath very well and it won't rain anymore, except on people who pay for it. Once the contracts are signed, there is no turning back. People don't believe this is true, so they have been docile. It IS true. You better start screamin!

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1769
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, I did use the word "available". But even so, during times of severe weather, TWC's ratings have been known to be higher than those of any other cable network (news, entertainment, sports, etc.). There have been times it's had a larger audience than Fox, or CNN, MSNBC, and HLN combined. That's a lot of eyeballs that will be tuning in during this winter's WS Brutus and wondering why those lesser news outlets with smaller audiences are just calling it "that big Northeast snowstorm". ;-)


yeah, you right..severe weather and hurricanes threatening areas does bring in more viewers but snowstorms?? nah people hardly ever tune in to see a blizzard hitting NYC who dont live in NYC..IMO winter weather doesnt hold the same merit as a a tornado or a hurricane to a regular moe, larry and curly ..however it will be hilarious to see AL and Cantore in New Orleans again but this time reporting during an ice storm trying to do push ups because if TWC dont bring nothing else, it will bring the hype..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stuck with da classic.

As I'm a retro freak ya knows.


2 Issac pup's have found wunderful Homes.

3 to go.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


The question to anwser is:

Is trustable weather forecasting a right or a priviledge?

RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
Quoting ncstorm:


Its available in the cable package..doesnt mean people watch it..
Well, I did use the word "available". But even so, during times of severe weather, TWC's ratings have been known to be higher than those of any other cable network (news, entertainment, sports, etc.). There have been times it's had a larger audience than Fox, or CNN, MSNBC, and HLN combined. That's a lot of eyeballs that will be tuning in during this winter's WS Brutus and wondering why those lesser news outlets with smaller audiences are just calling it "that big Northeast snowstorm". ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


My one complaint was the fonts were too light. I still miss mail sometimes. The classic view was easier to read.
Sometimes others actually listen. After the complaining, wunderground agreed to leave the classic site up and accessible. I'm glad they did.

One controls his/her own cheese.
:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Long range 18z GFS develops in the Caribbean. Let's see as time goes by if the model continues to show it and if other models join.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
Quoting Grothar:


Just made a bet you would be the first to correct that entry. Thanks. I just made $20.

Really? That's funny. I just made a $100 bet that you would say you made a bet and I won.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gro, there are no active invests in the Atlantic basin right now.


Just made a bet you would be the first to correct that entry. Thanks. I just made $20.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
NAO's going the wrong way...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
Photobucket
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
I wouldn't count on that. TWC is the nation's largest and best-known non-governmental weather provider, and it's available in tens of millions of households. So it wouldn't surprise me at all were some broadcast and internet outlets unaffiliated with TWC to pick up the names. Say, after a number of their own viewers start asking, "Hey, what do you guys at Intellicast think will happen with WS Plato?"

At any rate, here's what the NWS has to say about the TWC naming plan:

"The National Weather Service has no opinion about private weather enterprise products and services. A winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins. While the National Weather Service does not name winter storms, we do rate major winter storms after the fact."

And that seems about as non-committal as possible, no?


Its available in the cable package..doesnt mean people watch it..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There was a shy dwarf. Was his name "Bashful?"

Anyway, the biggest potential neg so far about TWC's plan to name winter storms is this SEEMS unilateral on TWC's part. Their own trip. Interesting wordpress article from Nate Johnson on that subject. Interesting comments as well...
A storm about naming storms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
A lot of shear around 96L


Gro, there are no active invests in the Atlantic basin right now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
People still look at classic, though maybe blog mostly at nuwu. I look at it for a couple reasons. Without paging across, can't see the mailbox light in nuwu on my preferred screen resolution. Easier to click a bookmark to classic wu. Also, maybe unimportant to those who do not venture into our friendly little blog community, the classic bloglist view shows when a member blog was last updated and time of last comment instead of (nuwu) just latest activity.

Change can be good. I don't know why people are talking about "change" re: storm naming. It's an experiment. May or may not be a good idea. That's the sneaky part. Gotta live with the consequences of it before you know if it's a pos or neg decision.


My one complaint was the fonts were too light. I still miss mail sometimes. The classic view was easier to read.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

*taps plays in the background*
This is a tribute to Nadine...
To Nadine, The most annoying system to run amuck in the Atlantic... Nadine, although she may stand ugly now...I dont know where I'm going with this...She was a never a pretty girl...... Furthmore......

R.I.P. Nadine

September 11, 2012 - October 3, 2012

She was so young!!! Why!?! why must she die so young?!


..... This has been a tribute to Never-Ending Nadine...

See you in 2018, Nadine.

Oh, one last thing...

Nadine wrote her Will yesterday, after the NHC broke the news to her that she had only 24 hours to live...
She left all of her posessions to Grothar.

You'll be receiving a package in the mail in 2 weeks, gro.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it will be at 5am.


*taps plays in the background*
This is a tribute to Nadine...
To Nadine, The most annoying system to run amuck in the Atlantic... Nadine, although she may stand ugly now...I dont know where I'm going with this...She was a never a pretty girl...... Furthmore......

R.I.P. Nadine

September 11, 2012 - October 3, 2012


She was so young!!! Why!?! why must she die so young?!


..... This has been a tribute to Never-Ending Nadine...

See you in 2018, Nadine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, it probably did. I don't like all motivational books, but this one did characterize the resistance to change. It is similar to a work project developed in the US but used widely in Japan. It is called the "Quality Circle" where new ideas are discussed in the workplace.

It was similar to when this site was changed last year. Everyone was complaining. Now, I don't think anybody even remembers what the old one looked like unless they go back to wunderground classic.
People still look at classic, though maybe blog mostly at nuwu. I look at it for a couple reasons. Without paging across, can't see the mailbox light in nuwu on my preferred screen resolution. Easier to click a bookmark to classic wu. Also, maybe unimportant to those who do not venture into our friendly little blog community, the classic bloglist view shows when a member blog was last updated and time of last comment instead of (nuwu) just latest activity.

Change can be good. I don't know why people are talking about "change" re: storm naming. It's an experiment. May or may not be a good idea. That's the sneaky part. Gotta live with the consequences of it before you know if it's a pos or neg decision.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A lot of shear around 96L

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
How about DC or MARVEL Comics villians?


Winter Storm "Mr. Freeze" for example.
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Stretched out trough of low pressure analyzed roughly along 35 N may serve as a catalyst for development in a couple days as shown by the GFS model.



Initialized:



The system circles back around a ridge of high pressure:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I had to get one good shot in. I'm not Bashful.


I resisted the impulse to Google the dwarves. I figured it'd pop up somehow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:




News media fails with truth, sugar coat everything.

Actually... Were doing just fine here in Southeast-Central Texas, Notice how the map says September 25th.
September 29-30 we go some very nice rains from our first Fall-like cold front... The drought monitor should shift some, when the release the latest map, tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not only did I move your cheese...

but I also ATE it!

: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



You're funny like a toothache.


snort snort chuckle chuckle....


Hey, I had to get one good shot in. I'm not Bashful.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would hope they would put public safety above competition.


Well then shouldn't the Weather Service promote that, its not like the media isn't warning you about a winter storm. If a private forecasting service wants to drive you to their product, its not the responsibility of other media to follow suit. What's next, TWC starts issuing warnings when they don't agree with the NWS? This is a dangerous line TWC is crossing with this winter storm naming. Just my 2 cents.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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