Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012 +35
The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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201. PensacolaDoug 10:13 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I had to get one good shot in. I'm not Bashful.


I resisted the impulse to Google the dwarves. I figured it'd pop up somehow.
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202. GTcooliebai 10:13 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Stretched out trough of low pressure analyzed roughly along 35 N may serve as a catalyst for development in a couple days as shown by the GFS model.



Initialized:



The system circles back around a ridge of high pressure:

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203. PensacolaDoug 10:15 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
How about DC or MARVEL Comics villians?


Winter Storm "Mr. Freeze" for example.
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204. Grothar 10:18 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
A lot of shear around 96L

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553
205. Barefootontherocks 10:20 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, it probably did. I don't like all motivational books, but this one did characterize the resistance to change. It is similar to a work project developed in the US but used widely in Japan. It is called the "Quality Circle" where new ideas are discussed in the workplace.

It was similar to when this site was changed last year. Everyone was complaining. Now, I don't think anybody even remembers what the old one looked like unless they go back to wunderground classic.
People still look at classic, though maybe blog mostly at nuwu. I look at it for a couple reasons. Without paging across, can't see the mailbox light in nuwu on my preferred screen resolution. Easier to click a bookmark to classic wu. Also, maybe unimportant to those who do not venture into our friendly little blog community, the classic bloglist view shows when a member blog was last updated and time of last comment instead of (nuwu) just latest activity.

Change can be good. I don't know why people are talking about "change" re: storm naming. It's an experiment. May or may not be a good idea. That's the sneaky part. Gotta live with the consequences of it before you know if it's a pos or neg decision.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16340
206. HurricaneDean07 10:21 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it will be at 5am.


*taps plays in the background*
This is a tribute to Nadine...
To Nadine, The most annoying system to run amuck in the Atlantic... Nadine, although she may stand ugly now...I dont know where I'm going with this...She was a never a pretty girl...... Furthmore......

R.I.P. Nadine

September 11, 2012 - October 3, 2012


She was so young!!! Why!?! why must she die so young?!


..... This has been a tribute to Never-Ending Nadine...

See you in 2018, Nadine.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4054
207. HurricaneDean07 10:24 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

*taps plays in the background*
This is a tribute to Nadine...
To Nadine, The most annoying system to run amuck in the Atlantic... Nadine, although she may stand ugly now...I dont know where I'm going with this...She was a never a pretty girl...... Furthmore......

R.I.P. Nadine

September 11, 2012 - October 3, 2012

She was so young!!! Why!?! why must she die so young?!


..... This has been a tribute to Never-Ending Nadine...

See you in 2018, Nadine.

Oh, one last thing...

Nadine wrote her Will yesterday, after the NHC broke the news to her that she had only 24 hours to live...
She left all of her posessions to Grothar.

You'll be receiving a package in the mail in 2 weeks, gro.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4054
208. Grothar 10:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
People still look at classic, though maybe blog mostly at nuwu. I look at it for a couple reasons. Without paging across, can't see the mailbox light in nuwu on my preferred screen resolution. Easier to click a bookmark to classic wu. Also, maybe unimportant to those who do not venture into our friendly little blog community, the classic bloglist view shows when a member blog was last updated and time of last comment instead of (nuwu) just latest activity.

Change can be good. I don't know why people are talking about "change" re: storm naming. It's an experiment. May or may not be a good idea. That's the sneaky part. Gotta live with the consequences of it before you know if it's a pos or neg decision.


My one complaint was the fonts were too light. I still miss mail sometimes. The classic view was easier to read.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553
209. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
A lot of shear around 96L


Gro, there are no active invests in the Atlantic basin right now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25347
210. Barefootontherocks 10:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
There was a shy dwarf. Was his name "Bashful?"

Anyway, the biggest potential neg so far about TWC's plan to name winter storms is this SEEMS unilateral on TWC's part. Their own trip. Interesting wordpress article from Nate Johnson on that subject. Interesting comments as well...
A storm about naming storms
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211. ncstorm 10:28 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
I wouldn't count on that. TWC is the nation's largest and best-known non-governmental weather provider, and it's available in tens of millions of households. So it wouldn't surprise me at all were some broadcast and internet outlets unaffiliated with TWC to pick up the names. Say, after a number of their own viewers start asking, "Hey, what do you guys at Intellicast think will happen with WS Plato?"

At any rate, here's what the NWS has to say about the TWC naming plan:

"The National Weather Service has no opinion about private weather enterprise products and services. A winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins. While the National Weather Service does not name winter storms, we do rate major winter storms after the fact."

And that seems about as non-committal as possible, no?


Its available in the cable package..doesnt mean people watch it..
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212. icmoore 10:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Photobucket
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213. MAweatherboy1 10:35 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
NAO's going the wrong way...

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214. Grothar 10:35 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gro, there are no active invests in the Atlantic basin right now.


Just made a bet you would be the first to correct that entry. Thanks. I just made $20.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553
215. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:38 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Just made a bet you would be the first to correct that entry. Thanks. I just made $20.

Really? That's funny. I just made a $100 bet that you would say you made a bet and I won.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25347
216. Tropicsweatherpr 10:48 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Long range 18z GFS develops in the Caribbean. Let's see as time goes by if the model continues to show it and if other models join.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8248
217. Barefootontherocks 10:50 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


My one complaint was the fonts were too light. I still miss mail sometimes. The classic view was easier to read.
Sometimes others actually listen. After the complaining, wunderground agreed to leave the classic site up and accessible. I'm glad they did.

One controls his/her own cheese.
:)
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218. Neapolitan 10:50 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting ncstorm:


Its available in the cable package..doesnt mean people watch it..
Well, I did use the word "available". But even so, during times of severe weather, TWC's ratings have been known to be higher than those of any other cable network (news, entertainment, sports, etc.). There have been times it's had a larger audience than Fox, or CNN, MSNBC, and HLN combined. That's a lot of eyeballs that will be tuning in during this winter's WS Brutus and wondering why those lesser news outlets with smaller audiences are just calling it "that big Northeast snowstorm". ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11169
219. Maineweatherguy20023 10:56 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting sunlinepr:


The question to anwser is:

Is trustable weather forecasting a right or a priviledge?

RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
220. washingtonian115 10:56 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10675
221. Patrap 11:00 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Stuck with da classic.

As I'm a retro freak ya knows.


2 Issac pup's have found wunderful Homes.

3 to go.
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222. ncstorm 11:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, I did use the word "available". But even so, during times of severe weather, TWC's ratings have been known to be higher than those of any other cable network (news, entertainment, sports, etc.). There have been times it's had a larger audience than Fox, or CNN, MSNBC, and HLN combined. That's a lot of eyeballs that will be tuning in during this winter's WS Brutus and wondering why those lesser news outlets with smaller audiences are just calling it "that big Northeast snowstorm". ;-)


yeah, you right..severe weather and hurricanes threatening areas does bring in more viewers but snowstorms?? nah people hardly ever tune in to see a blizzard hitting NYC who dont live in NYC..IMO winter weather doesnt hold the same merit as a a tornado or a hurricane to a regular moe, larry and curly ..however it will be hilarious to see AL and Cantore in New Orleans again but this time reporting during an ice storm trying to do push ups because if TWC dont bring nothing else, it will bring the hype..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8478
223. wxmod 11:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Jet smog over So Calif, So Nevada, Arizona and Eastern New Mexico today. Late afternoon MODIS. The GOES image I posted this morning shows it better. There's a lot of talk right to the top of the food chain now about geoengineering the planet's atmosphere because of the melted arctic sea. Your right to natural air and water are about to be removed forever, without your discussion. One day soon, you will wake up to white sky in every direction. No more blue sky. No more starry nights. Period. And soon after, you won't be able to breath very well and it won't rain anymore, except on people who pay for it. Once the contracts are signed, there is no turning back. People don't believe this is true, so they have been docile. It IS true. You better start screamin!

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234
224. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:04 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.

Have you ever watched them during Severe Weather coverage?
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225. Patrap 11:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
O Lordy..

LoL
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226. ncstorm 11:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.


what? and missing out on your local on the 8's..shame on you Wash..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8478
227. washingtonian115 11:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Have you ever watched them during Severe Weather coverage?
Yes.They are only useful for that(Well IMO they've not been that good on hurricane coverage as of late).But the server weather season varies from year to year.It can but super active(like 2003,2004 and 2011) or really quite like this years server weather season.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10675
229. Grothar 11:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Really? That's funny. I just made a $100 bet that you would say you made a bet and I won.


LOL. You're growing up, TA. I can't tease you like I used to.
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230. Civicane49 11:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
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231. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25347
232. Grothar 11:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Sometimes others actually listen. After the complaining, wunderground agreed to leave the classic site up and accessible. I'm glad they did.

One controls his/her own cheese.
:)


Now that's a classic.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553
233. wxchaser97 11:15 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
I got my driving permit, clear the roads. I see TD15 is barely forecasted to become Oscar and Nadine continues to weaken.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 6818
234. CosmicEvents 11:19 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a lot of eyeballs that will be tuning in during this winter's WS Brutus and wondering why those lesser news outlets with smaller audiences are just calling it "that big Northeast snowstorm". ;-)
This opinion I find hard to believe as one that you really believe. Your backing of a private(or non-govermental, as you said) company in this matter just doesn't ring true. Makes me question whether you'd extend the same "let's let boys be boys" attitude if it was Accuweather or FOX instead of TWC. There's a scent of disambiguation in the air. I personally think that there's less than a 1% chance that the public is gonna' take to these names and I just can't foresee folks thinking the other channels are "lesser" because they're not calling the snow/ice event Plato, Brutus, Cletus, Goofy. I guess time will tell how the public reacts to the names when they happen, though I'd say it's a 30% probability that TWC ditches the idea before it starts and we'll never know.
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235. wxchaser97 11:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.

Well right now I should be typing an English essay but I am instead on WU.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.

I watch it for severe weather, hurricanes, and winter weather. I'm not home during the day time anyway so I don't see the other programs they usually show or just watch something else. TWC is still useful for stuff and getting rid of it idk. Of course even if I wanted to I can't control my parents.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 6818
236. washingtonian115 11:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting CosmicEvents:
This opinion I find hard to believe as one that you really believe. Your backing of a private(or non-govermental, as you said) company in this matter just doesn't ring true. Makes me question whether you'd extend the same "let's let boys be boys" attitude if it was Accuweather instead of TWC. There's a scent of disambiguation in the air. I personally think that there's less than a 1% chance that the public is gonna' take to these names and I just can't foresee folks thinking the other channels are "lesser" because they're not calling the snow/ice event Plato, Brutus, Cletus, Goofy. I guess time will tell how the public reacts to the names when they happen, though I'd say it's a 30% probability that TWC ditches the idea before it starts and we'll never know.
I can't take any of those names serious enough.They sound like characters in a Hollywood movie.They're not really catchy either.Some of the names IMO are super ugly and hard to pronounce that I'll probably refer to them by a numerical system(storm 1 storm 2)lol.
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237. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:24 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Here is some sample TWC coverage during the April 14 tornado outbreak from earlier this year.

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238. washingtonian115 11:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
When a winter storm is threatening I have never tuned in TWC.I've always watched my local news station(s) for coverage and accurate information.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10675
239. nymore 11:28 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
This is mind boggling up to 2 feet of snow in Minnesota. It is a little Early for this.

Don't believe me check the NWS forecast for Williams Mn.

Wow

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240. Patrap 11:29 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Et tu, Brute?
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241. wxchaser97 11:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting nymore:
This is mind boggling up to 2 feet of snow in Minnesota. It is a little Early for this.

Don't believe me check the forecast for Williams Mn.

Wow


Yeah it is early for that, I had to check the forecast just to be sure and yup.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 6818
242. washingtonian115 11:35 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Who's getting two feet of snow that I should be receiving as of now?.Montana? no fair!.
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243. Civicane49 11:36 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
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244. Dakster 11:40 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.


You better get to work then...

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942
245. nymore 11:41 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
I wonder what the TWC will name this winter storm?

I bet they don't as it does not effect enough people. which will prove the point it is not about the storm but about how many people they can market the storm to, it is all about money
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246. MrMixon 11:43 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Cold front descending across the Front Range:



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247. Tropicsweatherpr 11:45 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 85A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...NADINE EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 31.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND NADINE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SHIPS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
OF NADINE HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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248. centex 11:50 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting MrMixon:
Cold front descending across the Front Range:



That is a dry front.
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249. barbamz 11:54 PM GMT on October 03, 2012    
Quoting nymore:
I wonder what the TWC will name this winter storm?

I bet they don't as it does not effect enough people. which will prove the point it is not about the storm but about how many people they can market the storm to, it is all about money


At least we're going to have some entertainment this winter to see how it will work out. And this blog will be more busy for sure. Maybe this is the reason TWC did it, lol?
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250. CaicosRetiredSailor 12:00 AM GMT on October 04, 2012    
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251. CaicosRetiredSailor 12:02 AM GMT on October 04, 2012    




Anybody else going to place a bet tonight...




on the big DEBATE....



Between




Grothar and TA13?


: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5137

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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