TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

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The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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296. SLU
Congrats .. the first "OSCAR" in recorded history goes to ....... TD #15!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ces15hurricanes:
I think the Hurricane Nadine could be the second long-lived hurricane in history
Quoting ces15hurricanes:
Hurricane Nadine could be the second long-lived hurricane in the history

You were so excited that you said it twice. LOL
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Well we have seen examples that ATCF and the NHC go different routes, most likely we have Oscar.



i wounder if this will be are last name storm
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2012 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
96L.INVEST
15L.OSCAR
14L.NADINE
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292. SLU
15-8-1 on October 3rd and they say it's a bust of a season ....
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04/0000 UTC 18.7N 42.0W T2.0/2.0 15L -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Tazmanian:



TD 15 is now OSCAR

Well we have seen examples that ATCF and the NHC go different routes, most likely we have Oscar.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
289. SLU
35kts wind barbs and the most broad COC in recorded history. Hi there OSCAR!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ATCF says TD15 has became Oscar, the curse may be over. The Oscar will be going to the Azores.
AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M,
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Civicane49:
TD 15:




TD 15 is now OSCAR
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS



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Hello there...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
I noted on the navy site it has are 15th name storm of the season.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Thanks, very interesting stuff... I tried everything I could think of to save that pdf, couldn't figure it out, had to bookmark it.

I culled the entire hurricane file here (1851-present)at WU for storms that hit, or affected Florida. Track maps and all the coordinates, some 535 pages worth so I could have reference available for my pioneer history stuff when I could not be online. I also have nearly 2 GB of tracks, forecasts, radar loops and sat loops. I am steadily working on all the slosh models, I'll have those soon. I am a hurricane hoarder. :)

Thanks again Gro!



Here something else for you.


After it is loaded, click on the graph on the bottom on any year you want. On the right, move the bar to any state you want.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the Hurricane Nadine could be the second long-lived hurricane in history
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Nadine could be the second long-lived hurricane in the history
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Slamguitar:


TD15 fattening up for sure!
too bad its all to the right of the coc
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:


TD15 fattening up for sure!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings Winter storm warning for
Sprague - Northwest Angle Provincial Forest continued

Powerful early season winter storm to affect Southeast Manitoba on Thursday.

This is a warning that dangerous winter weather conditions are imminent or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions...Listen for updated statements.

A developing storm system in the Dakotas is forecast to spread into Southern Manitoba tonight, bringing significant amounts of rain to Southeast Manitoba. Some areas could see 20-30 mm or so of rain by Thursday morning. As the night progresses, gusty northerly winds will usher in colder air from the north. With temperatures dropping to the low single digits, the rain will become mixed with snow as the morning approaches. As of early this evening up to 10 cm of snow has been reported in parts of North Dakota with this system, although the majority of the precipitation is still falling as rain.

The storm will intensify significantly throughout the day on Thursday. The heaviest band of precipitation is expected to fall mainly as snow through Southeast Manitoba, where snowfall amounts of anywhere from 10 to 30 cm are expected by the end of the day. Northerly winds gusting to 70 km/h combined with heavy snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. Travel in this area will become increasingly difficult as the day progresses.

The remainder of Southern Manitoba will see a rain/snow mix throughout the day as the temperature hovers in the low single digits. Some areas may see a couple of cm of so of snow accumulation while in others the precipitation will fall mainly as rain. Higher snowfall amounts are also likely along the higher terrain of Western Manitoba.

The heaviest snow will taper off Thursday evening, but a few lingering flurries will likely persist into Friday.

This winter storm will produce poor travelling conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nymore:
This is mind boggling up to 2 feet of snow in Minnesota. It is a little Early for this.

Don't believe me check the NWS forecast for Williams Mn.

Wow



iam expecting a strong winter
as the coldest air sets itself west of james bay
west to the foot hills across N.W.T. southward across central northern states
into the grt lakes se ward northern mid atlantic regions then up and out
the big low sets up across nw quebec eastern shores of james bay ne to greenland
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW that one big one!!!

FANTASY LAND!!!!! looks nice tho...
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
Adios Nadine, you had a lengthy life, we shall meet again in 2018.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
No Oscar yet on 00z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 191N, 423W, 30, 1007, TD
Might become Oscar at the 5am advisory or 11 am advisory if not there would not be Oscar from td 15.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Say your goodbyes folks... she's done.

04/0000 UTC 36.0N 30.6W TOO WEAK NADINE -- Atlantic

0z ATCF kept her a TS, so I'd say she'll be declared post tropical at 5AM.


Goodbye Nadine. It's been nice knowing you.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Say your goodbyes folks... she's done.

04/0000 UTC 36.0N 30.6W TOO WEAK NADINE -- Atlantic

0z ATCF kept her a TS, so I'd say she'll be declared post tropical at 5AM.

=(....
She will be missed, I think she was already done a little while ago.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Say your goodbyes folks... she's done.

04/0000 UTC 36.0N 30.6W TOO WEAK NADINE -- Atlantic

0z ATCF kept her a TS, so I'd say she'll be declared post tropical at 5AM.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8039
Quoting Grothar:


Here is a link to an interesting Paleotempestology reconstruction of the the pre-HURDAT era. I will look in my archives for the other maps.

Link


Thanks, very interesting stuff... I tried everything I could think of to save that pdf, couldn't figure it out, had to bookmark it.

I culled the entire hurricane file here (1851-present)at WU for storms that hit, or affected Florida. Track maps and all the coordinates, some 535 pages worth so I could have reference available for my pioneer history stuff when I could not be online. I also have nearly 2 GB of tracks, forecasts, radar loops and sat loops. I am steadily working on all the slosh models, I'll have those soon. I am a hurricane hoarder. :)

Thanks again Gro!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
18z GFS 384 hrs. SW Caribbean, looks to form from a weak tropical wave that manages to make it across the Caribbean and maybe a little upward motion in the MJO.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
.."and the Oscar goes to"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
No Oscar yet on 00z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 191N, 423W, 30, 1007, TD
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winter Storm Warning are up now

Link
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I got my driving permit, clear the roads. I see TD15 is barely forecasted to become Oscar and Nadine continues to weaken.
As soon as Nadine passes, Oscar will be born...seems pretty close now for the "waters" to break....
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WOW that one big one!!!
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255. wxmod
Arizona skies. MODIS today.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1771
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.
Same with Twitter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD 15:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




Anybody else going to place a bet tonight...




on the big DEBATE....



Between




Grothar and TA13?


: )


What other big debate is there?









LOL...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10790
251. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:02 AM GMT on October 04, 2012




Anybody else going to place a bet tonight...




on the big DEBATE....



Between




Grothar and TA13?


: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
250. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:00 AM GMT on October 04, 2012
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
249. barbamz
11:54 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting nymore:
I wonder what the TWC will name this winter storm?

I bet they don't as it does not effect enough people. which will prove the point it is not about the storm but about how many people they can market the storm to, it is all about money


At least we're going to have some entertainment this winter to see how it will work out. And this blog will be more busy for sure. Maybe this is the reason TWC did it, lol?
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6707
248. centex
11:50 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting MrMixon:
Cold front descending across the Front Range:



That is a dry front.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
247. Tropicsweatherpr
11:45 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 85A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...NADINE EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 31.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND NADINE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SHIPS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
OF NADINE HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
246. MrMixon
11:43 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Cold front descending across the Front Range:



Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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