TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine
The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.

Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):
1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days
According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.

Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 — Blog Index
I resisted the impulse to Google the dwarves. I figured it'd pop up somehow.
Initialized:
The system circles back around a ridge of high pressure:
Winter Storm "Mr. Freeze" for example.
Change can be good. I don't know why people are talking about "change" re: storm naming. It's an experiment. May or may not be a good idea. That's the sneaky part. Gotta live with the consequences of it before you know if it's a pos or neg decision.
*taps plays in the background*
This is a tribute to Nadine...
To Nadine, The most annoying system to run amuck in the Atlantic... Nadine, although she may stand ugly now...I dont know where I'm going with this...She was a never a pretty girl...... Furthmore......
R.I.P. Nadine
September 11, 2012 - October 3, 2012
She was so young!!! Why!?! why must she die so young?!
..... This has been a tribute to Never-Ending Nadine...
See you in 2018, Nadine.
Oh, one last thing...
Nadine wrote her Will yesterday, after the NHC broke the news to her that she had only 24 hours to live...
She left all of her posessions to Grothar.
You'll be receiving a package in the mail in 2 weeks, gro.
My one complaint was the fonts were too light. I still miss mail sometimes. The classic view was easier to read.
Gro, there are no active invests in the Atlantic basin right now.
Anyway, the biggest potential neg so far about TWC's plan to name winter storms is this SEEMS unilateral on TWC's part. Their own trip. Interesting wordpress article from Nate Johnson on that subject. Interesting comments as well...
A storm about naming storms
Its available in the cable package..doesnt mean people watch it..
Just made a bet you would be the first to correct that entry. Thanks. I just made $20.
Really? That's funny. I just made a $100 bet that you would say you made a bet and I won.
One controls his/her own cheese.
:)
RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As I'm a retro freak ya knows.
2 Issac pup's have found wunderful Homes.
3 to go.
yeah, you right..severe weather and hurricanes threatening areas does bring in more viewers but snowstorms?? nah people hardly ever tune in to see a blizzard hitting NYC who dont live in NYC..IMO winter weather doesnt hold the same merit as a a tornado or a hurricane to a regular moe, larry and curly ..however it will be hilarious to see AL and Cantore in New Orleans again but this time reporting during an ice storm trying to do push ups because if TWC dont bring nothing else, it will bring the hype..
Have you ever watched them during Severe Weather coverage?
LoL
what? and missing out on your local on the 8's..shame on you Wash..
LOL. You're growing up, TA. I can't tease you like I used to.
When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.
Now that's a classic.
Well right now I should be typing an English essay but I am instead on WU.
I watch it for severe weather, hurricanes, and winter weather. I'm not home during the day time anyway so I don't see the other programs they usually show or just watch something else. TWC is still useful for stuff and getting rid of it idk. Of course even if I wanted to I can't control my parents.
Don't believe me check the NWS forecast for Williams Mn.
Wow
Yeah it is early for that, I had to check the forecast just to be sure and yup.
You better get to work then...
I bet they don't as it does not effect enough people. which will prove the point it is not about the storm but about how many people they can market the storm to, it is all about money
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 85A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
...NADINE EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 31.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND NADINE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SHIPS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
OF NADINE HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
BY TONIGHT.
RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
At least we're going to have some entertainment this winter to see how it will work out. And this blog will be more busy for sure. Maybe this is the reason TWC did it, lol?
Anybody else going to place a bet tonight...
on the big DEBATE....
Between
Grothar and TA13?
: )
Viewing: 201 - 251
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 — Blog Index