TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

Share this Blog
35
+

The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 346 - 296

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Come on Nadine, you can come back, you've done it before, you can do it again, come on Nadine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Let the Oscar jokes begin!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

I highly doubt Nadine is tropical and we both want to be finished with her anyway.


If I were doing my TCR on her right now, I'd probably declare her post-tropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Screw it. Not gonna waste time. I'll just jump straight to Oscar. Post-season analysis will likely declare Nadine as post-tropical by this point anyway.

I highly doubt Nadine is tropical and we both want to be finished with her anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just made a very good play on words with Nadine (on my blog):

"Nadine fought the good fight, finished the race, and kept the faith."

:D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So far, I've noticed that both the 2012 eastern Pacific and Atlantic seasons have all tropical depressions became tropical storms. Off course, some of them became hurricanes.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:
Not. Sure. If I will write. About. Nadine...

Seriously, does this look like a tropical cyclone to you?



Nadine doesn't look like a tropical cyclone to me. I'm sure it will become a post-tropical cyclone by tomorrow.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Screw it. Not gonna waste time. I'll just jump straight to Oscar. Post-season analysis will likely declare Nadine as post-tropical by this point anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Not. Sure. If I will write. About. Nadine...

Seriously, does this look like a tropical cyclone to you?


Nadine is most likely non-tropical right now and TS Oscar is not the best looking TS ever either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not. Sure. If I will write. About. Nadine...

Seriously, does this look like a tropical cyclone to you?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
gee everyone must be so excited to see another fish storm, the advisory was posted 5 times. LOL
Good reason to be excited, it reached the O, storm and is not a threat to anyone... in the mean time I'm still looking for a little action well SW of Cape Verde, Island,... who knows...?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lobdelse81:
Yay!!!!! Finally. About time that this list of names joins the rest of the naming lists to make it to the O storm :)


Don't party just yet. It still has the recognition of being the only one that hasn't reached the letter 'P'. The 2010 one (with Igor) didn't reach it until that year though, so you never know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
The curse is no more, we have an Oscar.
...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 3
Location: 19.3°N 42.2°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Welcome Oscar the 15 tropical storm of the season in a rather active 2012, hurricane season. But with a remarkably quite September...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yay!!!!! Finally. About time that this list of names joins the rest of the naming lists to make it to the O storm :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Nadine:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting AussieStorm:
LOL.... they named it even though as they say....
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.

The only difference between a tropical depression and a tropical storm is whether or not it has 35-knot winds.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Quoting AussieStorm:

Which one is TD15??





Oscar is in the top image. Nadine is in the bottom image.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
LOL.... they named it even though as they say....
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
328. SLU
Quoting AussieStorm:

so what's this one? looks much better than Oscar.



Nadine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

so what's this one? looks much better than Oscar.


This is still Nadine and she is still a tropical storm but not for long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Must say this season is healthy! Every single depression has successfully turned into a storm or higher and gotten a name! well done!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting allancalderini:
The curse has been broken all the lists of the Atlantic has reach the O letter now.
And we are only on Oct. 3rd.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Oscar:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you people are Slow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gee everyone must be so excited to see another fish storm, the advisory was posted 5 times. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS MORPHED INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AT
0000 UTC...DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND A 0030 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED SEVERAL
UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT PASS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WITH A CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KT.
OSCAR IS ON THE CUSP OF ENTERING AN EVEN HIGHER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT OSCAR OPENING
UP INTO A TROUGH AND THEN LOSING ITS IDENTITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF OSCAR HAS SLOWED SOME IN RECENT HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/10. STEERED BY THE FLOW IN
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...OSCAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS
IT DECELERATES FURTHER. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
EMBEDDED IN A STRONG AND DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SHARP RECURVATURE AND A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRACK SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
RIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.3N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.5N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 22.0N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 23.8N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Some folks still haven't learned "the secret of the purple numbers..."
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
The curse has been broken all the lists of the Atlantic has reach the O letter now.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4042
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 86
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

NADINE IS A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EXTREMELY LARGE OCCLUDED
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NADINE IS NOT A
CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LARGE AND WELL-PRONOUNCED BAND OF SHALLOW
TO MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...DESPITE
THE RATHER DEGRADED AND POOR APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BEING
MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY CI-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 36-KT WIND REPORT
FROM SHIP BATFR18 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AT 0200 UTC.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/21 KT. NADINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN 48
TO 72 HOURS...THEN POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL NADINE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA.

THE 36-KT SHIP REPORT AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FROM NOW THROUGH LANDFALL
IN THE AZORES. NADINE COULD MERGE WITH EITHER A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OR CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH A WARM
FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT BY 24
HOURS...CLEAR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY. REGARDLESS OF THE
STATUS OF NADINE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS FROM SHIPS WITH CALL
SIGNS BATFR13...BATFR15...AND BATFR18...WHICH HAVE BEEN NAVIGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION OF NADINE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 37.4N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 40.2N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0000Z 49.0N 27.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting wxchaser97:

The first one with the broad circulation and the one posted in comment 306.

so what's this one? looks much better than Oscar.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT24 KNHC 040254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 86
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
0300 UTC THU OCT 04 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 30.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 30.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 31.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 40.2N 28.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 49.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 30.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Tropical Storm OSCAR

...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 3
Location: 19.3°N 42.2°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

15-8-1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The curse is no more, we have an Oscar.
...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 3
Location: 19.3°N 42.2°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup there are multiple 35kt wind barbs, we will see Oscar.

That looks like a sub-tropical storm as the strongest wind is away from the coc. and that a very broad coc also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Which one is TD15??




The first one with the broad circulation and the one posted in comment 306.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We now have Oscar. The curse is now broken!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The curse...is broken!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There was an ASCAT pass that revealed 35 knot winds. It is getting upgraded.

Which one is TD15??



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There was an ASCAT pass that revealed 35 knot winds. It is getting upgraded.

Yup there are multiple 35kt wind barbs, we will see Oscar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting AussieStorm:


ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

Just cause the ATFC computer says it's Oscar, doesn't mean the NHC will upgrade it. I wouldn't be surprised if they kept it TD15 or upgraded it to TS Oscar.

There was an ASCAT pass that revealed 35 knot winds. It is getting upgraded.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, but there is definitive evidence to upgrade the storm.


ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

Just cause the ATFC computer says it's Oscar, doesn't mean the NHC will upgrade it. I wouldn't be surprised if they kept it TD15 or upgraded it to TS Oscar.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, but there is definitive evidence to upgrade the storm.

I know and we will see an upgrade but ATCF is not 100% official every time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well we have seen examples that ATCF and the NHC go different routes, most likely we have Oscar.

Yes, but there is definitive evidence to upgrade the storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think we could still see another storm.

Also congrats to Miguel Cabrera on winning the triple crown!
I say 2 Patty and Rafael, if we are lucky 3 with Sandy.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4042
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder if this will be are last name storm


I think we may see at least one more after this storm.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting wxchaser97:
ATCF says TD15 has became Oscar, the curse may be over. The Oscar will be going to the Azores.
AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M,
Finally yeah.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4042
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder if this will be are last name storm

I think we could still see another storm.

Also congrats to Miguel Cabrera on winning the triple crown!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
296. SLU
Congrats .. the first "OSCAR" in recorded history goes to ....... TD #15!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 346 - 296

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
70 °F
Mostly Cloudy