TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

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The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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For the record at 11AM EDT Nadine will tie Kyle for advisory number. Atleast that's what I think.

Actually no, kyle had 89 advisories.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


That's odd...

mornin'



Showing yer age!
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Good Morning folks...................
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This is what a cold front is in S FL lol

Thursday
Clear. High of 91F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 15 to 20 mph.

Thursday Night
Clear. Low of 73F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday
Clear. High of 90F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night
Clear. Low of 73F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday
Clear. High of 90F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night
Clear. Low of 73F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday
Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Sunday Night
Clear. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph.
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That is a :) for me!! in S FL
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11am EDT will be its last.

"NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS
MORNING."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Bye bye Nadine, you will probably be extra-tropical next time I check on you.
...NADINE BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...
8:00 AM AST Thu Oct 4
Location: 39.0N 27.2W
Moving: NE at 23 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
...NADINE BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 27.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NNW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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On the 6Z GFS it is Snow Snow and Snow
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Everyone have a great and safe Thursday!
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Heavy snow falling in North Dakota.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I guess so... I'll miss Nadine. It was fun to track. The fifth longest tropical/subtropical cyclone on record meeting its demise...

I might miss her but I will rejoyce at not having to forecast Nadine.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting wxchaser97:

She should, hopefully, be dead from shear, cool waters, and absorbed by a larger low.

I guess so... I'll miss Nadine. It was fun to track. The fifth longest tropical/subtropical cyclone on record meeting its demise...
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

It's only 3 and a half days ;)

She should, hopefully, be dead from shear, cool waters, and absorbed by a larger low.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting wxchaser97:

If Nadine made it to 100 advisories I would probably go cry in a corner for a while. Today is most likely, and better be, her death day.

It's only 3 and a half days ;)
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

100 advisories we go! LOL
Maybe she will organize again to re-regenerate, although unlikely.

If Nadine made it to 100 advisories I would probably go cry in a corner for a while. Today is most likely, and better be, her death day.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I don't see how Nadine is tropical right now but hey you never know she may surprise us again.

100 advisories we go! LOL
Maybe she will organize again to re-regenerate, although unlikely.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Or maybe just short of Kyle. Nadine is losing tropical characteristics, per NHC. ADT thinks it's still a tropical cyclone.

I don't see how Nadine is tropical right now but hey you never know she may surprise us again.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, I'm surprised Nadine is still a tropical storm. Maybe, just maybe, she has enough life to beat Kyle.

Or maybe just short of Kyle. Nadine is losing tropical characteristics, per NHC. ADT thinks it's still a tropical cyclone.
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Good morning and Good evening, everyone. A beautiful cool 59 degrees in my part of Louisiana.
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Good morning everyone, I'm surprised Nadine is still a tropical storm. Maybe, just maybe, she has enough life to beat Kyle.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting Grothar:


Here something else for you.


After it is loaded, click on the graph on the bottom on any year you want. On the right, move the bar to any state you want.

Link


Hey this is pretty nifty. I'll play with it some more after I've had some sleep. Time for Zzzzzz. :)
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


"Oscar is not well-organized."
Nope. Felix is the organized one. ;)


That's odd...

mornin'
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2535
Quoting Grothar:


Here something else for you.


After it is loaded, click on the graph on the bottom on any year you want. On the right, move the bar to any state you want.

Link


Thanks Gro, this is pretty cool to mess with.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2535
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just finished my blog. Threw another reference in there for Oscar. Wondering if any of you will get it. :)


"Oscar is not well-organized."
Nope. Felix is the organized one. ;)
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TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO
15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35
KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE
LATEST SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS OSCAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING OSCAR OPENING INTO A
TROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OSCAR IS QUITE BROAD WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS
EVIDENT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8. THE LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING OSCAR TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. BY FRIDAY...A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS OSCAR...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL
LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 20.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 21.1N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 22.7N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 24.9N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 87
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. THERE
IS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS
IN A BAND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE WEST. RECENT AMSU DATA
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A WARM CORE...SO IT WILL BE
KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY CAN BETTER REVEAL
THE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A
37-KT WIND REPORT AT LAJES AIR FORCE BASE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/20. NADINE IS BEING STEERED BY A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.

NADINE SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR...MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING AND AFTER THE
TRANSITION. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO
THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48-72 HR...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 38.4N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 41.9N 26.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0600Z 45.2N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/1800Z 47.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0600Z 48.5N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 42.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 87
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...NADINE STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...
...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING IN THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 28.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR FORCE BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
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TS Gaemi



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Kids evacuated from holiday camp as bushfire spreads on the NSW Central Coast



MORE than 120 children have been evacuated from a holiday camp and the Sydney to Newcastle train line remains closed as fire fighters battle a blaze at Wyee this afternoon.

The fire has already burned an area of 10ha, with about 80 fire fighters working to slow its spread.

Several children were treated by paramedics for smoke inhalation and were among 129 evacuated from a school holiday program at Bethshan Mission and Christian Camp on Forest Rd.

Trains are blocked in both directions between Morisset and Wyong with about a dozen Rural Fire Service crews and two water-bombing helicopters battling the fire which ignited about 2.30pm.

The fire closed Wyee Rd after it ripped through a nearby nursery and threatened the Wyee Metro service station.

"It was like a fire ball," service station attendant Sarah Cotter said.

"I felt it, it was across the road and I said to my manager 'you'd better come and look at this'.

"And then it just blew across the road."

The manager Kristy Bolger evacuated about a dozen people from the service station who made their way up to the Wyee RFS station.

The fast moving fire has crossed the railway line and is burning in an east, north-easterly direction away from the F3 freeway





Houses in Webber Rd, Forest Rd, Woodville Rd, Karagi St, Munmorah St, Collungra St, Badjewoi St, Jilliby St, Fire Station Lane, Wallarah St,Tuggerah St, Warrawolong St, Bungaree St and Pulbah St may come under threat, an RFS spokeswoman said.

"Under these conditions, fires are uncontrollable, unpredictable and fast-moving," she said.

"Embers may be be blown ahead of the main fire creating spot fires.

"These spot fires may threaten homes earlier than the predicted main fire front."

The blaze came to within metres of homes at Wallarah St where residents have been using garden hoses to water fences, trees and burned ground.

Crews are expected to remain fighting the fire well into the evening.
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Rather large cold-core Upper Level Low that is currently absorbing Nadine and will be responsible for absorbing Oscar.

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Quoting JLPR2:
Well this is different. GFS shows this area of weak convection moving south all the way to the north of the islands and then closing off as it starts to move towards the west. Last run lost it in the Bahamas.



This run also losses it in the Bahamas. Keep in mind the GFS has sniffed out almost every storm this year in the Atlantic Basin.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


My saliva has more moisture content than that convection does.


Lol!
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357. JLPR2
Well this is different. GFS shows this area of weak convection moving south all the way to the north of the islands and then closing off as it starts to move towards the west. Last run lost it in the Bahamas.



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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Quoting mo999999999:


She's producing a decent convection still even if it's small and weak.


My saliva has more moisture content than that convection does.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


At this point she's literally embedded in a baroclinic zone, though. That hasn't been the case for pretty much her entire existence.


She's producing decent convection still even if it's small and weak.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

The last ASCAT showed she was still holding together, just no convection, which could come back.


At this point she's literally embedded in a baroclinic zone, though. That hasn't been the case for pretty much her entire existence.
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352. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL STORM MARCE (GAEMI)
11:00 AM PhST October 4 2012
===============================

Tropical Storm "MARCE" has slightly weakened while over the west Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Marce (Gaemi) located at 15.0°N 118.3°E or 170 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Zambales
2. Bataan

Additional Information
=====================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents in these areas as well as in areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the western seaboard of Luzon due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm "MARCE".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Shhh. After 17 separate forecast packages on her, this forecaster is worn out.

Don't you like me, Aussie? D:

The last ASCAT showed she was still holding together, just no convection, which could come back.
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That looks like a bunch of blobs not a TC, but it still has some convection with it.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




Yes


not sure if serious

:P
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Not. Sure. If I will write. About. Nadine...

Seriously, does this look like a tropical cyclone to you?





Yes
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
Quoting AussieStorm:
Come on Nadine, you can come back, you've done it before, you can do it again, come on Nadine


Shhh. After 17 separate forecast packages on her, this forecaster is worn out.

Don't you like me, Aussie? D:
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Come on Nadine, you can come back, you've done it before, you can do it again, come on Nadine
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.