TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

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The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm amazed at how some of you guys who track tropical cyclones are against this idea, heck it gives me something to track over the winter instead of cyclones in the Southern Pacific, lol.


Im not against the idea..Im just against TWC doing it..
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**I expect that this year The Weather Channel will be pretty conservative about assigning names, and only the very strongest winter storms will get named. For the eastern 2/3 of the country, storms that receive a ranking of "notable" or higher on NOAA's Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) or Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) are the only ones fairly certain to get named this winter. We only had one such storm during the winter of 2011 - 2012 (Snowtober, on October 29 - 31, 2011.) Thus, if we have another wimpy winter like last winter, we probably won't get to see the Wrath of Khan.**

Where does it say they will not name western or southern storms? I only see Dr. Masters making a prediction of what would be a good candidate for a named storm this year. And as for timing, they have stated they will name storms at least three days out. As far as I can see, by their own rules, TWC did not have time to name the current storm in the northern Great Plains.

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I'm amazed at how some of you guys who track tropical cyclones are against this idea, heck it gives me something to track over the winter instead of cyclones in the Southern Pacific, lol.
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Quoting VR46L:


Exactly My point !!! If the NWS was doing it there would be a published criteria people would know and could seriously talk about it ... but this gimmick by TWC seems ill thought out and appears to have back fired as its ill prepared with no thought at all...
What do you mean by "backfired"? TWC has gotten a ton of publicity this week, while the primary backlash has been from TWC's lesser competitors, who merely come across as petty for complaining. That hardly seems like a "backfire" to me.

But the primary question: is TWC forcing anyone to use the names they select? Since the obvious answer is "no", all the grumbling here and elsewhere seems kinda silly. If you like the naming idea--as I and many others do--use the names TWC chooses. If not, call any winter storm any name you wish, or call it nothing at all.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
In his blog about TWC naming winter storms, Jeff Masters mentioned the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.
That was stating that for winter storms in the eastern two-thirds of the country, TWC would be using the NESIS in conjunction with the RSI (the "NE" in NESIS stands for "North East").
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Quoting VR46L:


If it was a NWS backed idea I would have no problem with it where it will be uniformly called such a name but its just plain ridicules that a private company does this but thats just my opinion


So, even with all you know about how it can really help people by raising awareness, just because someone besides the NWS, or WMO came up with the idea - you wouldn't support it? That doesn't make sense, I get the fact that it might have something to do with ratings yes, if it was to come from the directors of TWC. This came from their mets, one of whom keeps a blog here on Weather Underground. Dr. Masters was also probably consulted on this idea. And I'm going to bet that they got approval from the WMO well in advance to do this. They don't just let companies do this, they have to get permission.

I've lived in the Northeast before, I was born there matter of fact, I can tell you that winter storms can be powerful and can come with little to no warning other than high chances of snow and some wind being predicted. No one prepares for them really, people always have their generators of course but there isn't a mass rush to the stores. But when it comes, people are caught off guard, on the road, in the open and ultimately something bad can happen. It's the exact same logic with naming tropical cyclones and it's proven to work without fail.

If anything, I'm disappointed this idea wasn't thrown out by WMO instead of TWC.
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Quoting goosegirl1:


With all respect due to you as a fellow human and blogger, if you lived where you were regularly impacted by severe winter weather- and I mean really severe, not just 3 or 4 inches of fluff, you may not feel this way. I have a 20 mile commute through the mountains to work each day, and I'm hoping this will help catch my attention in advance, so I can be ready and hopefully not end up stuck along the road (again.)


Im not knocking winter weather..Im knocking TWC and how your town or city if you dont live in one of the big metropolitian areas wont get a named storm even though it could cripple thousands of people..look at the winter storm happening now and what do we have?? If they are going to take on a task with naming winter storms, the first objective would be to name the first winter storm that is happening now..
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439. VR46L
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Let's be hypothetical here.

If the NWS or WMO never named tropical cyclones, and storms like, for example, Hurricane Irene last year, was known as The New England Hurricane of 2011 but TWC started naming the storms for next year, 2013. Would you have a problem with it, with the knowledge you have of how effective naming tropical cyclones can be to prepare people and raise awareness?


If it was a NWS backed idea I would have no problem with it .where it will be uniformly called such a name ,but its just plain ridicules that a private company does this but thats just my opinion
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Quoting goosegirl1:


It was reported on the weather channel the day it was released. Go weather.com, click the news tab, and scroll down to the video. The criteria include snow or ice accumulation, wind, a populated area, teperature, and economic impact to name a few. I have seen nothing about geographical area, as some blogger have implied.
In his blog about TWC naming winter storms, Jeff Masters mentioned the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.
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Quoting ncstorm:
TWC criteria for naming Winter Storms

It has to hit NY
It has to at least head in the direction of NY
It has to snow in NY


With all respect due to you as a fellow human and blogger, if you lived where you were regularly impacted by severe winter weather- and I mean really severe, not just 3 or 4 inches of fluff, you may not feel this way. I have a 20 mile commute through the mountains to work each day, and I'm hoping this will help catch my attention in advance, so I can be ready and hopefully not end up stuck along the road (again.)
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Quoting VR46L:


Totally agree with you ... just a private company trying to make extra bucks by building up normal weather event into a DOOMageddon ..LOL


Let's be hypothetical here.

If the NWS or WMO never named tropical cyclones, and storms like, for example, Hurricane Irene last year, was known as The New England Hurricane of 2011 but TWC started naming the storms for next year, 2013. Would you have a problem with it, with the knowledge you have of how effective naming tropical cyclones can be to prepare people and raise awareness?
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435. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Just should of stuck with DOOMCON. I sense some jealousy. LOL


Aye .. great minds came up with that one ..


Not much to worry about in the gulf at the moment

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do they even have one...I have been looking for it...IDK


It was reported on the weather channel the day it was released. Go weather.com, click the news tab, and scroll down to the video. The criteria include snow or ice accumulation, wind, a populated area, teperature, and economic impact to name a few. I have seen nothing about geographical area, as some blogger have implied.
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432. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
TWC criteria for naming Winter Storms

It has to hit NY
It has to at least head in the direction of NY
It has to snow in NY


LOL ... that would be a disgrace !!!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
There is no new info from TWC about naming and the criteria...


maybe they are waiting for the official start of winter??
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TWC criteria for naming Winter Storms

It has to hit NY
It has to at least head in the direction of NY
It has to snow in NY
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429. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

It was a knee-jerk reaction, with no deliberation whatsoever. It was indiscriminately fabricated, with attention, marketing, and notability as the top motive.


Totally agree with you ... just a private company trying to make extra bucks by building up normal weather event into a DOOMageddon ..LOL
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There is no new info from TWC about naming and the criteria...
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Oscar
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Quoting ncstorm:
TWC..what have they gotten themselves into?

Henry Margusity Fan Club
I would think that moderate snow with winds gusting to 40 mph would constitute a named storm. Sorry Grand Forks!


they should have named that storm yesterday night...if it would meet the criteria anyway.
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TWC..what have they gotten themselves into?

Henry Margusity Fan Club
I would think that moderate snow with winds gusting to 40 mph would constitute a named storm. Sorry Grand Forks!
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423. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


if the NWS was the one doing it...they would probably have even an example of a winter storm named... but they don't even know..


Exactly My point !!! If the NWS was doing it there would be a published criteria people would know and could seriously talk about it ... but this gimmick by TWC seems ill thought out and appears to have back fired as its ill prepared with no thought at all...
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Quoting VR46L:


They will name one when they need to up their ratings JMO... a marketing ploy ..LOL


if the NWS was the one doing it...they would probably have even an example of a winter storm named... but they don't even know..
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421. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do they even have one...I have been looking for it...IDK


They will name one when they need to up their ratings JMO... a marketing ploy ..LOL
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picked 4 more cyclones second week in sept now we need 3 more for my forecast to verify. its got some work to do
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


What *does* classify TWC to name these storms anyways? I would think similar to tropical cyclone naming, there needs to be a certain criteria. If not, this would certainly classify as WS Athena.


do they even have one...I have been looking for it...IDK
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
450 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MOST AREAS ALL SNOW TODAY.
THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AREA. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE OVER A FOOT. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG...LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

WINTER STORM ATHENA??? no?


What *does* classify TWC to name these storms anyways? I would think similar to tropical cyclone naming, there needs to be a certain criteria. If not, this would certainly classify as WS Athena.
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416. VR46L
Quoting 12george1:
How much longer is Nadine gonna stick around, or do you guys already think it is gone?


apparently she is somewhere near the azores but all I can see is a front lol

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414. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Who cares.


Very good point ...LOL
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412. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Time for some fall foliage reports and some updates on our Winter Storm in the Upper Great Plains and Midwest.


I am terrible I only follow the Atlantic systems but have TWC named it Athena yet??? Or is it too far west...
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How much longer is Nadine gonna stick around, or do you guys already think it is gone?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oscar is just pathetic.It looks like the run of male hurricanes have finally come to a disappointing end with Oscar.At the least Oscar you can strengthen into a 65mph cyclone.Looks like that might not even happen.
I was just going to say that.lol
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4042
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
450 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MOST AREAS ALL SNOW TODAY.
THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AREA. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE OVER A FOOT. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG...LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

WINTER STORM ATHENA??? no?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
407. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oscar is just pathetic.It looks like the run of male hurricanes have finally come to a disappointing end with Oscar.At the least Oscar you can strengthen into a 65mph cyclone.Looks like that might not even happen.


Wash he sure looks pathetic wont be watching him long lol
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25381
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning and Good evening, everyone. A beautiful cool 59 degrees in my part of Louisiana.


I'm spending a few months in your part of the world and it is indeed lovely this morning.

Two things I noticed right after the storm as a Louisiana outsider - critters called Nutria lying dead all over the place ?swamp rats? and incredible amounts of dead marsh grass spread over everything.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25381
Oscar is just pathetic.It looks like the run of male hurricanes have finally come to a disappointing end with Oscar.At the least Oscar you can strengthen into a 65mph cyclone.Looks like that might not even happen.
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Goodbye everyone, I have to go to school. Here is my new blog for those who missed it, Link.
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Kyle lives for 22.75 days...
Nadine so far 21.75...soon 22
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Quoting yqt1001:
For the record at 11AM EDT Nadine will tie Kyle for advisory number. Atleast that's what I think.

Actually no, kyle had 89 advisories.
Nadine will be done at 11am, so close to tying Kyle.
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I wrote a new blog on Nadine, Oscar, and the rest of the season, here it is.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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