TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine
The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):
1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days
According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
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AL, 14, 2012100412, , BEST, 0, 390N, 272W, 40, 998, DB, 34, NEQ, 150, 160, 0, 0, 1005, 110, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,
Meanwhile, Oscar's a tiny bit stronger, with pressure down to 1005mb:
AL, 15, 2012100412, , BEST, 0, 202N, 420W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1012, 220, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M,
September 11th, 2012 at 11AM - October 4th, 2012 at 11AM.
That's an insane 23 days.
My opinion is that if they did it properly and they covered the whole CONUS and not just the eastern 2/3's and with a proper criteria it would get a yes good idea from me, but until they bring out what criteria they have set down and change it to the whole of CONUS, it will only be a marketing gimmick to me.
On other things Tropical. we have two very ugly looking systems right now.
Ugly Oscar...
Ugly Gaemi...
Well, you're against TWC period, so...
But honestly, if you guys don't like the idea, don't watch it. Plain and simple.
2) TWC isn't by any means "ignoring" the current storm; it simply doesn't meet TWC's published (though admittedly still somewhat fuzzy) criteria for naming.
3) I'm not against corporations; I'm only against corporate policies that are harmful to the environment or people. I'm all for policies that will do far more good than bad--which, judging by the looks of things, seems to be the case with TWC's storm-naming idea.
The novelty for the remaining 10% is watching the kool-aid drinking cheerleaders trying to convince us otherwise.
Some of ya'll look pretty hot in your little skirts and pom poms...
National Drought Summary -- October 2, 2012
Weekly Summary: During the past week, a slow-moving front sank southeastward across the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous United States. A wave of low pressure formed along the front in west-central Texas near the Edwards Plateau, resulting in widespread heavy tropical rains for much of the southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the interior Southeast. Heavy rain (2 inches or greater) also fell over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, southern Illinois, eastern Missouri, and the interior mid-Atlantic region. The Upper Midwest, northern half of the Great Plains, and the West received little to no precipitation during the past 7-days. Temperatures for the period were generally above normal in the West (as much as 8 degrees above normal in the northern High Plains), 2-4 degrees below normal in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, and 2-4 degrees above normal in the Southeast.
But It will cross over to WU too where we will see blogs on Athena etc ...
oh young one..Im only against TWC naming storms and their whole policy of when and where such naming will occur..and I have seen you plenty of times come on here and bash them when they were reporting on hurricanes..and I believe your "teacher" wouldnt appreciate you texting in class..plain and simple..
only if your opinion agrees with him..
I understand why you would say this as at the moment you are given freedom for your lectures on AGW on here .
but It does not detract from the fact that uniformity on storms is what the general public need .. most people are not nerdy about weather like I am .. But I am concerned about the fact that weather conditions maybe misinterpreted .just because they are heading to the North East .and there should be no fussiness in a new policy it should be iron clad to stand up against ridicule .. which it is not and therefore is being ridiculed thoughout the social networks
...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED.
Then, why was the Midwest storm not named last night....
000
WTNT34 KNHC 041437
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
...BYE BYE NADINE...
...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 26.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE WEATHER SERVICE OF PORTUGAL HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE AZORES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT NADINE NO LONGER
HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND BECAME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE
WINDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DISTURBACE.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
AZORES...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF NADINE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE
MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT44 KNHC 041438
TCDAT4
REMNANTS OF NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...NADINE NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PENDING A POST-STORM ANALYSIS...NADINE WILL TIE GINGER
OF 1971 AS THE SECOND-LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ON
RECORD AT 21.25 DAYS. AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH INCLUDES THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE...IT IS THE FIFTH-LONGEST-LASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD IN THE BASIN...AT 21.75 DAYS.
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A VORTICITY MAXIMUM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NADINE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN
A DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 40.0N 26.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
Well actually, if you want to be smart, I have a free period. Thanks anyways. :-)
And bash TWC? I'd like you to find one post.
Why is that a problem?
I'll will hopefully be doing my own blogs on our upcoming Tropical Cyclone season.
News casters in New England name Noreasters all the time. Most winter storms are bigger and more powerful then any tropic system that been up this way in 40 years.
Because not everyone here buys into the TWC hype ...and gets their weather from other sources
Coordination and information sharing should improve between government organizations as well as the media, leading to less ambiguity and confusion when assessing big storms that affect multiple states.
From that, I would say the NWS and all other media organisations will be using the name given to winter storms by TWC.
The northern half of Central Florida is already abnormally dry?! This after a record wet summer and some rain the last 4 days. It does not take long to dry out around here. Also, lately, each time a significant cool down appears at the end of the 7 day forecast, temperatures are adjusted back up a couple days later. Latest forecast still shows nothing lower than 72F for the next week.
Your post when you addressed me was put offish so you got back what you dished..and come on, remember your storm central tirade how TWC isnt what it used to be back in the day? I dont have time to go back to find your many posts but everyone including myself have had something negative to say about TWC at one point or another..but then again, I could be wrong and TWC is perfect..I do like TWC though just not when it comes to naming these winter storms..we got the NHC naming hurricanes, so why wouldnt we have let the NWS or HPC handled it as well..
i can't belive we sunk over 90 billion in green energy and the company went bankrupt.....
Yeah we had the same type of pattern in TX last year and it was awful. Even though we have done better than expected this year here it seems like the dry shadow has established a stronghold in the northern plains and midwest. When I lived out west we would go through periods of extreme drought and then the pineapple express would open up and bring much needed precip. Definite wishcasting here but it would be great for a split stream to carry some of these storms to both the north and south. We'll see what if any impact El Nino has this winter.
(TheWeatherSpace.com) - While TWC on-air meteorologists brag about being the first to name coming Winter Storms, TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin has contacted The Weather Channel over the credit to claim, and a response was given.
The Weather Channel announced yesterday that they will be the first to name Winter Storms in the United States, before they come. Many have named them after the fact but no one has ever named them before hitting. However this was wrong.
Last night, Martin looked in an archive that is as good as a time machine itself, proving without a doubt he named them as far back as 2004. But, in reality he started it before the year 2000 with his viewers. The 2006 archive is enough to show the world The Weather Channel is not the first to come up with Winter Storm names before hitting populated areas.
TheWeatherSpace.com Network is the same outline as Ontario Weather Service back then and Southern California Weather Authority. However TheWeatherSpace.com is the national level site.
"TheWeatherSpace.com's studio is being built in Los Angeles, California and the novelty of this site on-air is to name Winter Storms," said Martin. "As you saw in the 2006 Blog and archive snapshot of my site back then showing it was categorized and named before hitting populated areas in Southern California."
What about on a national level?
"Adopting the same method of the Southern California Weather Authority, naming Winter Storms would expand this year nationally using my concept," said Martin. "The concept has a working category and criteria system for these storms, the same criteria for snow/blizzards in Southern California's Mountains."
The Weather Channel has contacted Martin today stating they will be giving a few days to speak to the company about it as Martin is pressing this issue hard.
"We already have a Winter Storm out there," said Martin. "Winter Storm Adam has been declared here at TheWeatherSpace.com and it will impact the most across North Dakota and Minnesota tonight. This is only confusing people and when TheWeatherSpace.com's main office goes even more national it will confuse them further."
So it looks like there will be an issue between The Weather Channel and TheWeatherSpace.com Networks on naming Winter Storms, since Martin has the documentation that would change their path.
Updates will come as they are available.
Link
(TheWeatherSpace.com) - Winter Storm Adam was declared last night here at TheWeatherSpace.com, and it is continuing to develop across South Dakota and deepen through Minnesota tonight, bringing snowfall to the region.
Winter Storm Adam is a high end Category One to weak Category Two on the Martin Winter Storm Intensity Scale, which means that in the center of the dynamics, wind gusts will reach 25 to 38 mph with up to 12 inches of snowfall.
Adam will start to drop snow in Southeast North Dakota overnight tonight, quickly deepening through Thursday morning and dropping category one conditions 6-11" of snowfall in Eastern North Dakota through Northwest Minnesota.
Because of the upper divergence within the band, expecting localized areas of 12" or higher, which ... with the wind ... will make it a weak end category two system.
Overall the system is a Category One for much of the area ... but some spots in the center of the dynamics will receive Category Two conditions.
Thundersnow could be possible at the upper Minnesota / North Dakota Border or in extreme Northwest Minnesota with the system.
The map above shows the category one and two shading of the forecast for Winter Storm, which is the first Winter Storm name of the 2012-2013 Winter Storm Season.
I am engaging in a grown up conversation .. I am just trying to work out why you would be so pro an idea that makes so little sense among the majority of the community .. and that can be the only reason I can come up with ...
The No Name Storm of 1993
The No Name Blizzard of 1977
The No Name Blizzard of 2006
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