Major U.S. Winter Storms to get names

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on October 02, 2012

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October is here, and its time to start thinking about how the coming winter's storm might compare to mighty blizzards of years past. Do you remember the North American blizzard of February 4, 2010? No? Well, do you remember Snowmageddon, the massive February 2010 Nor'easter that dumped up to 38" of snow in the mid-Atlantic, and killed 41 people? The two storms are the same, but having a simple name for the snowstorm like "Snowmageddon" helps us identify and remember the impacts of the storm. Naming a major winter storm makes even more sense if it is done before the storm hits, to aid in raising awareness of the storm, and to reduce the risks the public faces. That's exactly what The Weather Channel is going to do for the U.S. this winter, they announced in a press release today. A group of senior meteorologists at The Weather Channel chose 26 names for the upcoming winter of 2012 - 2013. The only criteria was to select names that are not and have never been on any of the hurricane lists produced by the National Hurricane Center or National Weather Service. Naming of a winter storm will occur no earlier than three days prior to it hitting, to ensure there is strong confidence that the system could have significant impact on large populations. There is no national center for monitoring winter storms like we have for hurricanes with the National Hurricane Center, so I think it makes sense for The Weather Channel to take this step.


Figure 1. Snowmageddon in Maryland: February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

U.S. winter storm names for winter of 2012 - 2013
Athena -- The Greek goddess of wisdom, courage, inspirations, justice, mathematics and all things wonderful

Brutus -- Roman Senator and best known assassin of Julius
Caesar -- Title used by Roman and Byzantine Emperors 

Draco -- The first legislator of Athens in Ancient
Euclid -- A mathematician in Ancient Greece, the Father of Geometry
Freyr -- A Norse god associated with fair weather, among other things

Gandolf -- A character in a 1896 fantasy novel in a pseudo-medieval countryside

Helen – In Greek mythology, Helen of Troy was the daughter of Zeus

Iago -- Enemy of Othello in Shakespeare’s play, Othello

Jove -- The English name for Jupiter, the Roman god of light and sky.

Kahn -- Mongolian conqueror and emperor of the Mongol Empire

Luna -- The divine embodiment of the moon in Roman mythology

Magnus -- The Father of Europe, Charlemagne the Great, in Latin: Carolus Magnus 

Nemo -- A Greek boy’s name meaning “from the valley”, means “nobody” in Latin 

Orko -- The thunder god in Basque mythology

Plato -- Greek philosopher and mathematician, who was named by his wrestling coach

Q -- The Broadway Express subway line in New York City

Rocky -- A single mountain in the Rockies

Saturn -- Roman god of time, among other things who had a planet named after him

Triton -- In Greek mythology, the messenger of the deep sea, son of Poseidon

Ukko -- In Finnish mythology, the god of the sky and weather

Virgil -- One of ancient Rome’s greatest poets

Walda -- Name from Old German meaning “ruler”

Xerxes -- The fourth king of the Persian Achaemenid Empire, Xerxes the Great

Yogi -- People who do yoga

Zeus -- In Greek mythology, the supreme ruler of Mount Olympus and the gods who lived there

I expect that this year The Weather Channel will be pretty conservative about assigning names, and only the very strongest winter storms will get named. For the eastern 2/3 of the country, storms that receive a ranking of "notable" or higher on NOAA's Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) or Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) are the only ones fairly certain to get named this winter. We only had one such storm during the winter of 2011 - 2012 (Snowtober, on October 29 - 31, 2011.) Thus, if we have another wimpy winter like last winter, we probably won't get to see the Wrath of Khan.

Naming of Winter Storms in Europe
Various organizations in Europe have been naming their winter storms since 1954, and the public has reacted positively to this practice. The names given by the Free University of Berlin are the most widely used, and have been in existence since 1954. Their meteorologists traditionally name all lows and highs that influence the Central European weather. In November 2002, the Free University began an Adopt-a-Vortex scheme, which allows anyone to buy a storm name. The money raised is used by the meteorology department to maintain weather observations at the university. Over 1,800 participants from 15 European countries plus Brazil, Japan and the United States have participated. So far in 2012, 90 European low pressure systems have been given names.


Figure 2. A huge wave from Winter Storm Klaus rolls into Santander, Spain, in this wunderphoto taken by wunderphotographer lunada on January 24, 2009. Klaus had a central pressure of 967 mb at its peak on the morning of January 24, and brought sustained winds of 59 mph, gusting to 81 mph, to Santander. Wind gusts as high as 124 mph (199 km/hr) occurred along the northern coast of Spain, and the storm killed at least 26 people in Spain, France, and Italy.

Naming of Lake Effect Winter Storms by NWS Buffalo
Tom Niziol, The Weather Channel's winter storm expert, was meteorologist-in-charge of the Buffalo, New York NWS office until January 2012. He tells me that for over ten years, the Buffalo NWS has been naming lake-effect storms. This was done only after the event occurred, to avoid any confusion, but was very popular with users. The names were chosen on a yearly basis by having the office staff vote for one of several themes--such as insects, heavenly bodies, famous scientists, minerals, Native American tribes, etc. Last winter, eight storms were named after breeds of cows (?!), as seen at the NWS Buffalo Lake Effect web page. I was not asked to contribute to this year's list of U.S. winter storms, but will lobby for next year's list of names to be taken from famous monsters--Rodan, Ghidorah, Nessie, Kong, Bunnicula, etc.


Figure 3. The most significant lake-effect snow storm of the winter of 2011 - 2012 was named Lake Effect Storm Evolene by the NWS office in Buffalo, New York. Image credit: NWS Buffalo Lake Effect web page.

Nadine
The Methuselah of Atlantic tropical storms, Tropical Storm Nadine, is slowly weakening over cool 22 - 24°C waters. Nadine will have accumulated 20 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Wind shear will rise to 30 knots and ocean temperatures will drop to 20°C by Thursday, which should cause Nadine to transition to an extratropical storm as it passes by the northern Azores Islands on Thursday and Friday.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a large area of heavy thunderstorms that is growing more organized. The storm is located about 925 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow. (Proserpina)
Hubby tried to use the snow-blower to clear the snow, unfortunately for him the snow is too deep for the snow-blower. The shovel and his arms will have to do the job.
Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow.
Blizzard 2010 (TonyInDC)
Blizzard  2010

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751. JNCali
6:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.
no discussion necessary.... ORIGINAL RECIPE!
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
750. Jedkins01
4:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
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Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7302
749. icmoore
4:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
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Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
748. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
747. LargoFl
4:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
Freezing to death has to be a horrible way to go... I don't mind some cooler weather once in awhile but keep the sub-zero temps away!
yeah freezing can be brutal..I remember the huge PAIN in my freezing fingers and face..it really hurts..its why..in some way..lol..i moved to florida..havent seen a snowflake in..gee i cant remember when lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
746. LargoFl
3:57 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
you know something folks..we just came thru a great pro and con conversation on this naming thing..TWC folks are probably reading all this conversation and looking at the points made here..on both sides..afterall we all come from different area's of the country and probably have different concerns area wise..lets hope they take all this into consideration when creating this naming thing...MORE info please....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
745. SherwoodSpirit
3:52 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
I'm on the fence about naming winter storms. I do think that giving a storm a name will make some people pay a little more attention. But I'd feel a whole lot better about it if it wasn't happening because a commercial television outlet decided to do it, because they have no set rules as to how to gauge severity of a named storm as in TD, TS and hurricane Cat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 designations for tropical storms (and even there we have differing opinions as to how well that works).

However, when Wichita was under a high "TorCon" according to TWC last summer, I used that designation to convince my mother (who has no basement) to get out of her house and to a safer place. No one but TWC uses TorCon, but it worked to get my mother's attention and helped keep her safe. The Wichita tornado hit within two miles of her house.

Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
744. overwash12
3:50 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
and we should not forget..some of the older folks who froze to death in some of these monster winter storms etc..winter storms are dangerous in their own way, not just wind...how many people over the years died because they got stranded on a snow closed road..miles from no where, out of gas finally and froze to death..winter can be deadly alright..a different kind of danger than from tropical system dangers..we'll see how this goes over time...in europe they are quite used to it.
Freezing to death has to be a horrible way to go... I don't mind some cooler weather once in awhile but keep the sub-zero temps away!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1460
743. LargoFl
3:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but it would have to be done at the government or national level, not by a private forecasting corporation like the Weather Channel. Its just like saying Accuguess or Weatherbell started issuing warnings on storms. Its going to be an exclusive product only found on the Weather Channel. Personally, I don't feel its a smart idea. A 4 inch snowfall in NYC is a nuisance, a 4 inch snowfall in Atlanta will shut down the city. Do we name it?
good point made, I would have liked the NWS to have come out with this idea, but they didnt, and commercial politics will come into play now...accuweather lets say..will say well we..arent going to follow the TWC....but..if this naming thing catches on over the next few years..they wont be left behind..they will..follow suit, but for now..its all up in the air...people might have laughed way back when..at thomas edison too..Imagine..LIGHT coming from a glass tube..no way, i wont have THAT..in my house..no way......lol...people dont like..new things, its in our nature i guess..until it proves itself
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
742. Neapolitan
3:48 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but it would have to be done at the government or national level, not by a private forecasting corporation like the Weather Channel. Its just like saying Accuguess or Weatherbell started issuing warnings on storms. Its going to be an exclusive product only found on the Weather Channel. Personally, I don't feel its a smart idea. A 4 inch snowfall in NYC is a nuisance, a 4 inch snowfall in Atlanta will shut down the city. Do we name it?
Dr. Masters referred specifically to the RSI in determining whether any particular storm would be named. The 'R' in RSI, of course, stands for "Regional", as the index is concerned with the regional impacts of a storm. And the different regions have different thresholds for snowstorm impact. From NOAA's RSI page: "For example, the thresholds for the Southeast are 2", 5", 10", and 15" of snowfall while the thresholds for the Northeast are 4", 10", 20", and 30" of snowfall."

I personally think naming winter storms is a great idea that should have been implemented years ago. I look forward to doing away with clunky names like "Snowmageddon III" or "The Great Northeast Blizzard of 1977". Of course, people can still call a storm whatever they'd like; this will simply allow the nation's largest non-government weather provider to streamline its own operations.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13465
741. originalLT
3:48 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Caneswatch, post 721, don't be too sure. TWC is owned by NBC. They might order their affiliates to follow the naming game.
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740. Tropicsweatherpr
3:46 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Weathercasters cast doubt about TWC naming of winter storms.

Link
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739. LargoFl
3:42 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting overwash12:
Storms are not getting any stronger,but they are affecting more people as would be expected.
and we should not forget..some of the older folks who froze to death in some of these monster winter storms etc..winter storms are dangerous in their own way, not just wind...how many people over the years died because they got stranded on a snow closed road..miles from no where, out of gas finally and froze to death..winter can be deadly alright..a different kind of danger than from tropical system dangers..we'll see how this goes over time...in europe they are quite used to it.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
738. SoAl
3:36 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Naming winter storms? Maybe. Are they really as predictable and dangerous as a hurricane? Maybe not. I can only imagine illiterate news anchors trying to pronounce Xerxes!!! Most of us Canadians think Americans overreact to a snowstorm and perhaps being prepared might do y'all some good. Being from Alberta, I wish every little system wasn't called an "Alberta Clipper"! Many of those so called storms do not originate from here!!!
Member Since: February 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
737. overwash12
3:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Storms are not getting any stronger,but they are affecting more people as would be expected.
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736. Chucktown
3:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
well i used to work at ABC network many years ago..and IF..this naming issue gains ground..im sure the networks will latch onto the idea and report same...time will tell..its new and remember...when they first started naming tropical systems..people laughed way back then also...not anymore thats for sure...the affiliates will follow suite when the networks report named systems...but this is all guesswork right now.


Yea, but it would have to be done at the government or national level, not by a private forecasting corporation like the Weather Channel. Its just like saying Accuguess or Weatherbell started issuing warnings on storms. Its going to be an exclusive product only found on the Weather Channel. Personally, I don't feel its a smart idea. A 4 inch snowfall in NYC is a nuisance, a 4 inch snowfall in Atlanta will shut down the city. Do we name it?
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1720
735. LargoFl
3:32 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
Lets hope TWC uses this scale, then it would be uniform with NOAA.

The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

NESIS ranks the severity of an East Coast snowstorm based on snowfall amount and the population of the affected areas. NESIS provides a quantitative measure of the snowstorm's potential socio-economic impact, compared with storms of the past, and assigns each large storm with one of the five categories notable, significant, major, crippling or extreme. This scale was developed because of the impact Northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of transportation and economic impact.



An example from the 2006-2007 winter season is the complex storm that struck the mid-Atlantic and New England on February 14 and 15, 2007. This storm was classified as "major," or a Category 3 on The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS).



The strong storm produced widespread snowfall across the mid-Atlantic, bringing the heaviest amounts to interior regions of the Northeast. Freezing rain, sleet and a thick coating of ice brought widespread power outages in Washington , D.C. , Maryland and Virginia . Snowfall amounts exceeded 20 inches throughout large parts of New York and New England , but the heavily populated urban corridor from Washington , D.C. , to Boston received less than 5 inches(Figure 1). While the highest amounts were outside the largest urban areas of the Northeast, the storm's ranking as Category 3 reflects its massive size and the high snowfall totals in less populated areas of the region.



NESIS was jointly developed by Paul J. Kocin, a former winter weather expert at The Weather Channel and Louis W. Uccellini, director of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md. Thomas R. Karl, director of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, led the effort to make NESIS operational.



NESIS scores are calculated at the National Climatic Data Center and are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers.



Link
great info there ty..and now we will see IF..TWC is going to name these storms BEFORE..or AFTER the storm passes.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
734. SuzK
3:30 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I really don't think storms are getting stronger. It's more the media is portraying this picture.


Easy for you to say if you haven't been living through them.
Member Since: October 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
733. LargoFl
3:28 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.
ROFLMAO..good one GRO
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
731. LargoFl
3:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri
..first off..Happy birthday!!..and no..the season is NOT over..October is the most dangerous month of all..for Florida the nws says..historically florida gets most of its tropical systems In october..more than any other month..but..most of these storms come from the gulf or carribean and not from africa..usually
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
730. Grothar
3:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25407
729. LargoFl
3:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:


That's what I am wondering. You certainly can't restrict the naming scheme JUST to systems affecting the Northeast. Just as tropical cyclones are named throughout the entire Atlantic Basin, so should winter storms that have the possibility to affect virtually all of the lower 48 within the conterminous U.S.

And then there's the issue of setting a criteria. But one must take into account that the criteria or threshold cannot be the same for everywhere geographically within the lower 48, since Southern States are much less equipped to handles even small snowstorms.
you know alaska gets some Brutal winter storms huh and the northwestern states as well,My simple guess is..ALL states that get these winter storms will be included...i would guess ..hmmm say a state that isnt used to getting a foot of snow and high winds and blowing snow..hmmm lets say georgia or southern texas..the storm IS coming..perhaps with a name and a classification..the people would stand up and take notice..i dunno...people dont prepare NOW..until a hurricane is knocking down their house huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
728. earthlydragonfly
3:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I still go back to the point made yesterday regarding the geographic relativity of these systems.

Atlanta GA or Charleston SC is making National headlines if a fast-moving system decides to dump 3" of wet snow on Christmas Eve while that same event would be considered "no big deal" (and even welcomed) on the Megalopolis of the East Coast.


The same could be made point could be made for a tropical storm hitting Florida... No big deal. but if it hit Maine.... Pretty big deal
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
727. catastropheadjuster
3:19 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3657
726. LargoFl
3:18 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

so would it get named by TWC or not?
exactly why..more info on exactly what determines a storm getting a name...they are being too tight lipped on How they are going to classify a storm..we'll see in the months to come..perhaps..they are at this moment..figuring out HOW to classify a winter storm?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
725. allancalderini
3:18 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
if tropical depression 15 don`t become Oscar today it may never will.
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723. LargoFl
3:14 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


NOAA already has a snowfall impact scale for the northeast. It is used in post-storm analysis based on snow amounts and the population affected by said amounts.
exactly..after the storm has passed which is ok...but being post storm didnt alert the public on how bad the storm was going to be,how high the winds were going to be..would there be power outages and for how long, would i lose my roof..do i need to hurriedly order more fuel oil etc etc etc...alot can go into this winter warning thing, Im going to withold my own personal opinion until I see how this is handled and..IS the public now preparing better..just because..the storm has a name and are now more aware of the danger coming....its an interesting idea..but..alot more info is needed by the public and if its not given..the idea will fade away..we'll see...being in florida..it wont affect me much unless the winter storm goes into the gulf and brings freezing temps and high winds to my area..which..HAS happened in the past I hear..well we will see what happens
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
722. AussieStorm
3:14 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
718:

Can always count on you to pull up good info, links, or maps on relevant topics...

Your welcome. I read it yesterday, knew where to get it from.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
721. caneswatch
3:13 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
I know my NBC affiliate won't be following TWC with their naming thing. Chief met Steve Weagle knows it's too confusing.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
719. AussieStorm
3:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I still go back to the point made yesterday regarding the geographic relativity of these systems.

Atlanta GA or Charleston SC is making National headlines if a fast-moving system decides to dump 3" of wet snow on Christmas Eve while that same event would be considered "no big deal" (and even welcomed) on the Megalopolis of the East Coast.

so would it get named by TWC or not?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
718. AussieStorm
3:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Lets hope TWC uses this scale, then it would be uniform with NOAA.

The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

NESIS ranks the severity of an East Coast snowstorm based on snowfall amount and the population of the affected areas. NESIS provides a quantitative measure of the snowstorm's potential socio-economic impact, compared with storms of the past, and assigns each large storm with one of the five categories notable, significant, major, crippling or extreme. This scale was developed because of the impact Northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of transportation and economic impact.



An example from the 2006-2007 winter season is the complex storm that struck the mid-Atlantic and New England on February 14 and 15, 2007. This storm was classified as "major," or a Category 3 on The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS).



The strong storm produced widespread snowfall across the mid-Atlantic, bringing the heaviest amounts to interior regions of the Northeast. Freezing rain, sleet and a thick coating of ice brought widespread power outages in Washington , D.C. , Maryland and Virginia . Snowfall amounts exceeded 20 inches throughout large parts of New York and New England , but the heavily populated urban corridor from Washington , D.C. , to Boston received less than 5 inches(Figure 1). While the highest amounts were outside the largest urban areas of the Northeast, the storm's ranking as Category 3 reflects its massive size and the high snowfall totals in less populated areas of the region.



NESIS was jointly developed by Paul J. Kocin, a former winter weather expert at The Weather Channel and Louis W. Uccellini, director of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md. Thomas R. Karl, director of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, led the effort to make NESIS operational.



NESIS scores are calculated at the National Climatic Data Center and are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers.



Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
717. LargoFl
3:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, I work for the CBS affiliate, so we will not be referring to any named winter storm (thank goodness !!)
well i used to work at ABC network many years ago..and IF..this naming issue gains ground..im sure the networks will latch onto the idea and report same...time will tell..its new and remember...when they first started naming tropical systems..people laughed way back then also...not anymore thats for sure...the affiliates will follow suite when the networks report named systems...but this is all guesswork right now.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
715. ScottLincoln
3:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
what i want to know is how are they going to classify bad winter storms...like...a category 1 winter storm?..is that going to say..a foot of snow and 60 mph winds possible..etc etc..and are they even going to..give a category 1-2-3-4 etc....alot of information still needs to be handed out to the public on this, we'll see this winter..IF..it does happen this winter, and see how TWC handles this.....they say with a named storm people pay more attention...well we shall see if that proves true or now..............i remember way back in new york when i lived there..weather said a foot or more of snow and high winds was coming...all i did was go out and buy some extra milk etc...and inside i was saying..great i have a few days off from work lol..........lets see how this goes.


NOAA already has a snowfall impact scale for the northeast. It is used in post-storm analysis based on snow amounts and the population affected by said amounts.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3170
714. AussieStorm
2:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I'm not completely sold on naming or not naming winter storms. I'm also not sold on it is currently set up to happen, as I think it needs a more structured set of consistent criteria across the operational met community.

That aside, the slippery slope is not a logical form of reasoning. Debate the pros and cons of the issue here, in front of us, right now - not some situation that has been created through connected dots and imagination.


Agreed, there is no set criteria, only thing we know is they have to effect the east coast, and that's all. Nothing else, Not even a numbering system like WS01, WS02, Athena, WS03... ect.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
713. LargoFl
2:59 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
what i want to know is how are they going to classify bad winter storms...like...a category 1 winter storm?..is that going to say..a foot of snow and 60 mph winds possible..etc etc..and are they even going to..give a category 1-2-3-4 etc....alot of information still needs to be handed out to the public on this, we'll see this winter..IF..it does happen this winter, and see how TWC handles this.....they say with a named storm people pay more attention...well we shall see if that proves true or not..............i remember way back in new york when i lived there..weather said a foot or more of snow and high winds was coming...all i did was go out and buy some extra milk etc...and inside i was saying..great i have a few days off from work lol..........lets see how this goes.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
711. all4hurricanes
2:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
I personally think naming snowstorms is fine, between 2009-2011 D.C. got at least three really bad snowstorms and I can't remember which is which (or even if there were others). If they had names I would probably remember more.
As for naming other disasters, most others it just isn't practical.
Flash Floods and tornadoes happen too fast and there's too many
Dought can cover a vast and ill defined area but it doesn't move much
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2353
710. Chucktown
2:56 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I'm okay with that. How about at a local TV station? Aren't you a MET down in the lowland SC region....?


Yea, I work for the CBS affiliate, so we will not be referring to any named winter storm (thank goodness !!)
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1720
709. Twinkster
2:55 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
does anyone know why the SFWMD page shows the GFS model as the AVNO model?
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 937
706. AussieStorm
2:51 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting all4hurricanes:
why is the forecast cone so short, do they expect TD15 to die in 3 days?

Yes.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...
...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
705. yqt1001
2:50 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting all4hurricanes:
why is the forecast cone so short, do they expect TD15 to die in 3 days?


Pretty much.


48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Not even a post-tropical forecast point, which is rare.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
704. CybrTeddy
2:50 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Is this the criteria they are basing the decision off of?


You're completely missing the point of what I'm saying.

Heck, Europe has been naming them for years.

I bet that they were saying this when they decided to name hurricanes in 1950, that it was a ridiculous idea and would generate hype. Well, we're not complaining about it are we now?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23618
703. JNCali
2:50 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting SuzK:
All of you who are dissing the idea of naming winter storms are frustrating me. I'm sorry if it makes you uncomfortable! It IS a step forward...The times they are a'changin

yes.. and I hope they start naming droughts too and earthquakes maybe.. what else? Solar flares could be named I guess, and floods? Tidal waves are a no-brainer for sure.. get those baby books out we're gonna need a lot of names!
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
702. AussieStorm
2:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting Chucktown:


The named winter storms will only be found at the Weather Channel, and most likely its NBC affiliates. The names will not be recognized anywhere else and will not be referred to by anyone else (NOAA, CNN, CBS, ABC, FOX. etc.)
what if CNN, CBS, ABC, FOX. etc decided to do there own winter storm naming. Could get very confusing.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
701. ScottLincoln
2:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Still incorporates the hype element, though. Hard to refute that.

What's next, Teddy?

Are we going to name floods, droughts, tornadoes?


I'm not completely sold on naming or not naming winter storms. I'm also not sold on how it is currently set up to happen, as I think it needs a more structured set of consistent criteria across the operational met community.

That aside, the slippery slope is not a logical form of reasoning. Debate the pros and cons of the issue here, in front of us, right now - not some situation that has been created through connected dots and imagination.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3170

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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