Major U.S. Winter Storms to get names

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on October 02, 2012

Share this Blog
46
+

October is here, and its time to start thinking about how the coming winter's storm might compare to mighty blizzards of years past. Do you remember the North American blizzard of February 4, 2010? No? Well, do you remember Snowmageddon, the massive February 2010 Nor'easter that dumped up to 38" of snow in the mid-Atlantic, and killed 41 people? The two storms are the same, but having a simple name for the snowstorm like "Snowmageddon" helps us identify and remember the impacts of the storm. Naming a major winter storm makes even more sense if it is done before the storm hits, to aid in raising awareness of the storm, and to reduce the risks the public faces. That's exactly what The Weather Channel is going to do for the U.S. this winter, they announced in a press release today. A group of senior meteorologists at The Weather Channel chose 26 names for the upcoming winter of 2012 - 2013. The only criteria was to select names that are not and have never been on any of the hurricane lists produced by the National Hurricane Center or National Weather Service. Naming of a winter storm will occur no earlier than three days prior to it hitting, to ensure there is strong confidence that the system could have significant impact on large populations. There is no national center for monitoring winter storms like we have for hurricanes with the National Hurricane Center, so I think it makes sense for The Weather Channel to take this step.


Figure 1. Snowmageddon in Maryland: February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

U.S. winter storm names for winter of 2012 - 2013
Athena -- The Greek goddess of wisdom, courage, inspirations, justice, mathematics and all things wonderful

Brutus -- Roman Senator and best known assassin of Julius
Caesar -- Title used by Roman and Byzantine Emperors 

Draco -- The first legislator of Athens in Ancient
Euclid -- A mathematician in Ancient Greece, the Father of Geometry
Freyr -- A Norse god associated with fair weather, among other things

Gandolf -- A character in a 1896 fantasy novel in a pseudo-medieval countryside

Helen – In Greek mythology, Helen of Troy was the daughter of Zeus

Iago -- Enemy of Othello in Shakespeare’s play, Othello

Jove -- The English name for Jupiter, the Roman god of light and sky.

Kahn -- Mongolian conqueror and emperor of the Mongol Empire

Luna -- The divine embodiment of the moon in Roman mythology

Magnus -- The Father of Europe, Charlemagne the Great, in Latin: Carolus Magnus 

Nemo -- A Greek boy’s name meaning “from the valley”, means “nobody” in Latin 

Orko -- The thunder god in Basque mythology

Plato -- Greek philosopher and mathematician, who was named by his wrestling coach

Q -- The Broadway Express subway line in New York City

Rocky -- A single mountain in the Rockies

Saturn -- Roman god of time, among other things who had a planet named after him

Triton -- In Greek mythology, the messenger of the deep sea, son of Poseidon

Ukko -- In Finnish mythology, the god of the sky and weather

Virgil -- One of ancient Rome’s greatest poets

Walda -- Name from Old German meaning “ruler”

Xerxes -- The fourth king of the Persian Achaemenid Empire, Xerxes the Great

Yogi -- People who do yoga

Zeus -- In Greek mythology, the supreme ruler of Mount Olympus and the gods who lived there

I expect that this year The Weather Channel will be pretty conservative about assigning names, and only the very strongest winter storms will get named. For the eastern 2/3 of the country, storms that receive a ranking of "notable" or higher on NOAA's Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) or Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) are the only ones fairly certain to get named this winter. We only had one such storm during the winter of 2011 - 2012 (Snowtober, on October 29 - 31, 2011.) Thus, if we have another wimpy winter like last winter, we probably won't get to see the Wrath of Khan.

Naming of Winter Storms in Europe
Various organizations in Europe have been naming their winter storms since 1954, and the public has reacted positively to this practice. The names given by the Free University of Berlin are the most widely used, and have been in existence since 1954. Their meteorologists traditionally name all lows and highs that influence the Central European weather. In November 2002, the Free University began an Adopt-a-Vortex scheme, which allows anyone to buy a storm name. The money raised is used by the meteorology department to maintain weather observations at the university. Over 1,800 participants from 15 European countries plus Brazil, Japan and the United States have participated. So far in 2012, 90 European low pressure systems have been given names.


Figure 2. A huge wave from Winter Storm Klaus rolls into Santander, Spain, in this wunderphoto taken by wunderphotographer lunada on January 24, 2009. Klaus had a central pressure of 967 mb at its peak on the morning of January 24, and brought sustained winds of 59 mph, gusting to 81 mph, to Santander. Wind gusts as high as 124 mph (199 km/hr) occurred along the northern coast of Spain, and the storm killed at least 26 people in Spain, France, and Italy.

Naming of Lake Effect Winter Storms by NWS Buffalo
Tom Niziol, The Weather Channel's winter storm expert, was meteorologist-in-charge of the Buffalo, New York NWS office until January 2012. He tells me that for over ten years, the Buffalo NWS has been naming lake-effect storms. This was done only after the event occurred, to avoid any confusion, but was very popular with users. The names were chosen on a yearly basis by having the office staff vote for one of several themes--such as insects, heavenly bodies, famous scientists, minerals, Native American tribes, etc. Last winter, eight storms were named after breeds of cows (?!), as seen at the NWS Buffalo Lake Effect web page. I was not asked to contribute to this year's list of U.S. winter storms, but will lobby for next year's list of names to be taken from famous monsters--Rodan, Ghidorah, Nessie, Kong, Bunnicula, etc.


Figure 3. The most significant lake-effect snow storm of the winter of 2011 - 2012 was named Lake Effect Storm Evolene by the NWS office in Buffalo, New York. Image credit: NWS Buffalo Lake Effect web page.

Nadine
The Methuselah of Atlantic tropical storms, Tropical Storm Nadine, is slowly weakening over cool 22 - 24°C waters. Nadine will have accumulated 20 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Wind shear will rise to 30 knots and ocean temperatures will drop to 20°C by Thursday, which should cause Nadine to transition to an extratropical storm as it passes by the northern Azores Islands on Thursday and Friday.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a large area of heavy thunderstorms that is growing more organized. The storm is located about 925 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow. (Proserpina)
Hubby tried to use the snow-blower to clear the snow, unfortunately for him the snow is too deep for the snow-blower. The shovel and his arms will have to do the job.
Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow.
Blizzard 2010 (TonyInDC)
Blizzard  2010

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 351 - 301

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

350. Skyepony (Mod)
I haven't found current status update but OSCAT is definitely in trouble.. This is the last statue update..

30-Jul-2012 Since 27 July, the completeness of the Oceansat-2 data is reduced. Orbits are quite often shorter than usual.

Current data..nnoooo
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37159
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
348. JLPR2
Neat, with a structure like that it seems like TD 15 is just around the corner.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Surprise surprise looks like me may actually get something the eastern atlantic.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
96L looks like he's breathing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
80% along with some stronger language on 96L for the latest TWO.


Please, family blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
343. Skyepony (Mod)
Windsat just got to that bit of moisture south of PR...interesting.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37159
Quoting SLU:
80% along with some stronger language on 96L for the latest TWO.


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 02 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-136

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. AL96
FLIGHT ONE --NA872--
A. 05/0000Z
B. NA872 0196L INVEST
C. 04/1030Z
D. 20.5N 40.5W
E. 04/1500Z TO 05/0500Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT.
G. ASYMETRIC BUTTERFLY PATTERN.TOTAL OF 78
SONDES TO BE DROPPED

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting vinotinto:


I suggest that in the future, you post the entire quote you are attacking so as not to mislead someone who has not actually read the entire quote. By the way, the bell is ringing, you need to get back to class to teach your next lesson.
First you accuse Neapolitan of misquoting you, when his quote actually captured the theme of your post just fine, then you personally attack him. I would suggest that in the future you directly respond to the contents of the post you are quoting, rather than switch to ad hominems to distract from the topic on hand; however, unlike you, I'm not going to tell people how to post on a public forum. With that, I bid thee g'day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
More training rains on Florida SE coast. Need to look up all time yearly rainfall records if this keeps up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Big rain on me!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
338. SLU
80% along with some stronger language on 96L for the latest TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post #328, I wish he could be the new "Q", but Leslie is dead too.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7359
And some more rain on the way for the Fla. east coast...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the Miami NWS...

Yearly Rainfall Approaching Record Levels
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
334. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh Windsat 96L.. That is getting real close to a TD.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37159
Quoting wxchaser97:
I would not be surprised if 96L is renumbered in the next couple hours and a TD at 11pm. 96L should be a TD to even a TS in the next 24hrs. The satellite presentation is really well and SAB and TAFB numbers are 1.5.
And the NHC supports your thought with these.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
And I agree too possible td in the next couple of hours prepare people there might be a renumber soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would not be surprised if 96L is renumbered in the next couple hours and a TD at 11pm. 96L should be a TD to even a TS in the next 24hrs. The satellite presentation is really well and SAB and TAFB numbers are 1.5.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
WOW!!!

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR BOARDMAN IN COLUMBUS COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA...

LOCATION...BOARDMAN IN COLUMBUS COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA

DATE...OCT 1 2012
ESTIMATED TIME...622 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...55 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...20 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...0.16 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...34.4035N / -78.9495W
ENDING LAT/LON...34.4057N / -78.9491
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0


It's not even int the EF0 range... EF-1...lol.
...EF0 WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
comment about TWC move article in the Washington Post...
I think he's right...the NWS should take this into matter and not TWC

The problem is that naming tropical systems is simple, because the criteria is objective. There are wind speed thresholds. But a subjective system of naming winter events allows for complete randomness. Do you name an event with .02" of freezing drizzle that cripples a metropolitan area? What about a clipper with a narrow stripe of heavy snow? Do you name east coast storms in advance, knowing that some of them will stay out to sea and affect no one? Does an event with an initial low moving through the Great Lakes followed by a second low forming along the Carolina coast get 2 names?
At some level, however, I would have preferred the National Weather Service take this on rather than TWC. An NWS storm-naming initiative would have more credibility since its mission is to protect life and property rather than to make money and generate publicity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NOUS42 KILM 022247
PNSILM
NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039 -053>056-030300-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
647 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

...MULTIPLE TORNADOES CONFIRMED ON OCT 1 2012...

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR HALLSBORO IN COLUMBUS COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA...

LOCATION...HALLSBORO IN COLUMBUS COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...OCT 1 2012
ESTIMATED TIME...522 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...30 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...0.3 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...34.3277N / -78.5773W
ENDING LAT/LON...34.3317N / -78.5748W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO NEAR HALLSBORO IN COLUMBUS COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA ON OCT
1 2012.

THE BRIEF TORNADO SKIMMED ALONG A FIELD AND OVER A CORN FIELD
THROWING MINOR DEBRIS. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CORN FIELD AND KNOCKED DOWN SEVERAL TREES. SOME OF THE TREES
FELL ONTO A FENCE CAUSING DAMAGE. THE TORNADO LIFTED PRIOR TO
MOVING NORTH ACROSS HIGHWAY 74.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

&&

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR COUNCIL IN BLADEN COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA...

LOCATION...COUNCIL IN BLADEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA

DATE...OCT 1 2012
ESTIMATED TIME...558 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...60 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...20 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...0.12 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...34.4111N / -78.4724W
ENDING LAT/LON...34.4125N / -78.4707W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO NEAR COUNCIL IN BLADEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA ON OCT 1
2012.

A SHORT LIVED EF0 TORNADO TRACKED ACROSS SOUTH ELWELL FERRY RD
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 211 CAUSING SOME TREE DAMAGE. DEBRIS WAS STREWN
ACROSS A FIELD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROAD. A TREE SNAPPED AND
FELL ACROSS THE ROAD AND ACROSS POWER LINES RESULTING IN LOCAL
POWER OUTAGES. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED IN THE FIELD EAST OF SOUTH
ELWELL FERRY ROAD AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 211.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

&&

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR BOARDMAN IN COLUMBUS COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The new "Q".





Vote YES on the "Q" amendment!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



More rain yes, but tropical, definitely no tropical threat. The reason why is that you have an upper low embedded in an upper trough with no surface feature around the upper low. Even if the upper low had a surface low near it, development would be highly unlikely thanks to the upper trough inducing large amounts of shear. At least right now, there is no threat for tropical cyclones in the northwest gulf and Caribbean.

But yeah, expect more rain this week, south Florida looks to be getting a lot more of it then here in the Tampa Bay area. As that upper low lifts into the gulf it will induce increasing upper divergence over South Florida, which induces convective growth below. With high moisture in place, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms. However strong thunderstorms, big lightning producers, and severe weather are unlikely thanks to warm mid level air keeping things more stable than they normally would be in this setup.
Thank you very much!! for your great analysis!!!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricane1956:
What we should expect from this ULL here in South Florida?,this ULL will be moving East or North East over South Florida?,any chance of small tropical development with this feature.I like your very detailed information of what is going on in the Western Caribbean!.We were expecting a lot of rain here in South FLorida but it's now that the rain is coming down,maybe more tonight and tomorrow??,thank you!.



More rain yes, but tropical, definitely no tropical threat. The reason why is that you have an upper low embedded in an upper trough with no surface feature around the upper low. Even if the upper low had a surface low near it, development would be highly unlikely thanks to the upper trough inducing large amounts of shear. At least right now, there is no threat for tropical cyclones in the northwest gulf and Caribbean.

But yeah, expect more rain this week, south Florida looks to be getting a lot more of it then here in the Tampa Bay area. As that upper low lifts into the gulf it will induce increasing upper divergence over South Florida, which induces convective growth below. With high moisture in place, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms. However strong thunderstorms, big lightning producers, and severe weather are unlikely thanks to warm mid level air keeping things more stable than they normally would be in this setup.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
Quoting plutorising:
now that someone's talking about the hidden comments, i find that i'm logged in (duh) but can't manage to change the filter to show all. it says show average, and then when i change it, it bounces back.

but that's an improvement, because i didn't think there was any rhyme or reason to the comments i have to click on to see.


Set the default filter to "Show All" using "Edit Blog Profile" on your blog page (top of page under your username select My Blog) Edit Blog Profile link is on the right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
brilliant, logging out and back in did the trick. i always hesitate to log out, because i never remember my password (sigh). thanks loads.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


LOL I always think Wales should sell water to England, plenty of it comes down in NW Wales for sure. Today alone would probably stave off S/E Englands' hosepipe bans! Been a mess. Even had giant hail and a thunderstorm despite it only being 60' max. It's often pretty soppy here, but been terrible the last few days even more so.

Thanks for the info.
When I had to endure being in Manchester for 10 months last year, the talk was all of dried up river beds and no water for the Olympics. Now there's too much of the stuff.
Then again we had 12 inches of rain in a day last week near here. Back to summer weather now with 30/C and blue skies.

On that missing comment thing, Ive had all sorts of trouble getting all the comments some times. I'm sure as you say, it probably something to do with a filter. I also have trouble uploading comments some times as well. They just disappear. It got so bad at one point a few months ago, I started copying them to notebook and pasteing them back to the comment box if they didn't appear in about 10 minutes.
Problem with that seems to have cleared up now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plutorising:
now that someone's talking about the hidden comments, i find that i'm logged in (duh) but can't manage to change the filter to show all. it says show average, and then when i change it, it bounces back.

but that's an improvement, because i didn't think there was any rhyme or reason to the comments i have to click on to see.


After changing the settings, quit WU and log in again, then it might be saved.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
321. auburn (Mod)
Quoting plutorising:
now that someone's talking about the hidden comments, i find that i'm logged in (duh) but can't manage to change the filter to show all. it says show average, and then when i change it, it bounces back.

but that's an improvement, because i didn't think there was any rhyme or reason to the comments i have to click on to see.


That happens to me from time to time..usually will fix its self,or you can log out and back in..that has helped in the past.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


You're welcome! Well, the rainfall will mostly not be coming from sea breezes initially. It will be from an upper trough/upper low in cooperation with a stalling cold front over Florida. However as this front washes out later this week the activity will become more sea breeze generated.


The reason I'm not sold on this rain event for Central Florida, is that mid level temps are quite warm, and it will take significant upper divergence to offset the mid level warming. But, the upper low from the southwest is supposed to overcome the lack of initial instability right now because of the warm mid level temps. You'll notice the lack of strong thunderstorms lately, that s why.
What we should expect from this ULL here in South Florida?,this ULL will be moving East or North East over South Florida?,any chance of small tropical development with this feature.I like your very detailed information of what is going on in the Western Caribbean!.We were expecting a lot of rain here in South FLorida but it's now that the rain is coming down,maybe more tonight and tomorrow??,thank you!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I don't think it will clear through tonight. The ull seems to be moving north a little quicker now....


Yes but an upper level low and a surface front are two different things. I do expect the front to stall sooner or later as high pressure is building in from the southeast now as expected to appose frontal movement. However, the front has already cleared through where I live in Pinellas, the wind has shifted to the west northwest and dew points had dropped from about 76/77 to 70.

Now, rainfall around the Tampa Bay area will be based on if high pressure from the southeast can push the front back northwest some. So far it looks like from Sarasota area up through Orlando and points southeast from there is where all the rain will setup, and the Tampa Bay area may miss most of it. The fact that the west side of Florida had much lower coverage both yesterday and today suggests this.


However, if the front retreats back north some and the high builds in enough, we might get some heavier rain around here. But, I'm not sold on it yet.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
now that someone's talking about the hidden comments, i find that i'm logged in (duh) but can't manage to change the filter to show all. it says show average, and then when i change it, it bounces back.

but that's an improvement, because i didn't think there was any rhyme or reason to the comments i have to click on to see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Thanks Jedkins! Our forcast in SW Florida is for 60% chance of thunderstorms today and tomorrow. I think alot of it is coming off our normal afternoon seabreezes. But we are getting a SW flow from carribean and that is pushing in alot of moisture


You're welcome! Well, the rainfall will mostly not be coming from sea breezes initially. It will be from an upper trough/upper low in cooperation with a stalling cold front over Florida. However as this front washes out later this week the activity will become more sea breeze generated.


The reason I'm not sold on this rain event for Central Florida, is that mid level temps are quite warm, and it will take significant upper divergence to offset the mid level warming. But, the upper low from the southwest is supposed to overcome the lack of initial instability right now because of the warm mid level temps. You'll notice the lack of strong thunderstorms lately, that s why.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
Quoting PlazaRed:

Recurveing out to sea and not bothering anybody is OK for you but as with Nadine, we are on the other side of the sea and from the Canaries to the Azores, there's quite a few lumps of land in its way. Then if it gets past that lot there's always the UK, ever ready to stave off another hose pipe ban!


LOL I always think Wales should sell water to England, plenty of it comes down in NW Wales for sure. Today alone would probably stave off S/E Englands' hosepipe bans! Been a mess. Even had giant hail and a thunderstorm despite it only being 60' max. It's often pretty soppy here, but been terrible the last few days even more so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
315. auburn (Mod)
Quoting PlazaRed:

If you dont sign in properly, then some of the comments are sometimes hidden.
If you are in any doubt,"Don't Panic," check that you have actually signed in, during the frantic race to find out whats really going on.


If you dont sign in you cant post at all.check that the filter settings are set to "Show all"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:

If you dont sign in properly, then some of the comments are sometimes hidden.
If you are in any doubt,"Don't Panic," check that you have actually signed in, during the frantic race to find out whats really going on.


Well, considering the fact that he posted a comment...
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting CaribBoy:
When some comments are hidden, what does it mean?

If you dont sign in properly, then some of the comments are sometimes hidden.
If you are in any doubt,"Don't Panic," check that you have actually signed in, during the frantic race to find out whats really going on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
312. SLU
Systems this vigorous and intimidating don't generate winds below 35 - 40mph

I see no reason why the NHC didn't upgrade this to at least TD #15 at 5pm today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Things are getting interesting in the Western Caribbean!,this upper level low by the Yucatan Peninsula might move a little bit North and go down to the surface,this is the area that we have to be aware this time of the year,I can see more convention this afternoon around this area.Just wondering which way all this moisture will go?,East to North East?.Today here in Miami we were expecting 70% rain change,very little rain today,don't know if this will change later tonight?.What everybody think about this Upper level low any developments from it??.
Don't waste your time on 96L thanks god is going to re-curve to sea and don't bother anybody.

Recurveing out to sea and not bothering anybody is OK for you but as with Nadine, we are on the other side of the sea and from the Canaries to the Azores, there's quite a few lumps of land in its way. Then if it gets past that lot there's always the UK, ever ready to stave off another hose pipe ban!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
who can authorize TWC to give information about naming a storm...NOAA NWS or the WMO???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L looking better than ever!

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
When I think of Q, am I the only one who think of dear old Desmond? :D

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This looks like a good year to start naming winter storms. I am guessing it could be an interesting one. A 45 degree temp drop forcasted tomorrow through tomorrow night with a chance of snow. Saying lows of 10 degrees here by Saturday... It's almost 80 today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yes I can, but I need to click on the "HIDE" button.


You need to set your filter to "show all".

It's just right of the display # and order at the top of the comments section.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
with the winter storms now being name Looks like winter will be more amazing than what is already it will be like waiting for the first name storm of the Atlantic this looks so exciting I can`t wait for the first name winter-storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Have a good evening all.... Time to go


See you then ^^
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting entrelac:

If the comment numbers skip it means they have been removed by Admin.

If they are just hidden they have been voted down.


Okay now I better understand :) Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You cannot view them.


Yes I can, but I need to click on the "HIDE" button.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have a good evening all.... Time to go
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 351 - 301

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.