Major U.S. Winter Storms to get names

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:50 PM GMT on October 02, 2012

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October is here, and its time to start thinking about how the coming winter's storm might compare to mighty blizzards of years past. Do you remember the North American blizzard of February 4, 2010? No? Well, do you remember Snowmageddon, the massive February 2010 Nor'easter that dumped up to 38" of snow in the mid-Atlantic, and killed 41 people? The two storms are the same, but having a simple name for the snowstorm like "Snowmageddon" helps us identify and remember the impacts of the storm. Naming a major winter storm makes even more sense if it is done before the storm hits, to aid in raising awareness of the storm, and to reduce the risks the public faces. That's exactly what The Weather Channel is going to do for the U.S. this winter, they announced in a press release today. A group of senior meteorologists at The Weather Channel chose 26 names for the upcoming winter of 2012 - 2013. The only criteria was to select names that are not and have never been on any of the hurricane lists produced by the National Hurricane Center or National Weather Service. Naming of a winter storm will occur no earlier than three days prior to it hitting, to ensure there is strong confidence that the system could have significant impact on large populations. There is no national center for monitoring winter storms like we have for hurricanes with the National Hurricane Center, so I think it makes sense for The Weather Channel to take this step.


Figure 1. Snowmageddon in Maryland: February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

U.S. winter storm names for winter of 2012 - 2013
Athena -- The Greek goddess of wisdom, courage, inspirations, justice, mathematics and all things wonderful

Brutus -- Roman Senator and best known assassin of Julius
Caesar -- Title used by Roman and Byzantine Emperors 

Draco -- The first legislator of Athens in Ancient
Euclid -- A mathematician in Ancient Greece, the Father of Geometry
Freyr -- A Norse god associated with fair weather, among other things

Gandolf -- A character in a 1896 fantasy novel in a pseudo-medieval countryside

Helen – In Greek mythology, Helen of Troy was the daughter of Zeus

Iago -- Enemy of Othello in Shakespeare’s play, Othello

Jove -- The English name for Jupiter, the Roman god of light and sky.

Kahn -- Mongolian conqueror and emperor of the Mongol Empire

Luna -- The divine embodiment of the moon in Roman mythology

Magnus -- The Father of Europe, Charlemagne the Great, in Latin: Carolus Magnus 

Nemo -- A Greek boy’s name meaning “from the valley”, means “nobody” in Latin 

Orko -- The thunder god in Basque mythology

Plato -- Greek philosopher and mathematician, who was named by his wrestling coach

Q -- The Broadway Express subway line in New York City

Rocky -- A single mountain in the Rockies

Saturn -- Roman god of time, among other things who had a planet named after him

Triton -- In Greek mythology, the messenger of the deep sea, son of Poseidon

Ukko -- In Finnish mythology, the god of the sky and weather

Virgil -- One of ancient Rome’s greatest poets

Walda -- Name from Old German meaning “ruler”

Xerxes -- The fourth king of the Persian Achaemenid Empire, Xerxes the Great

Yogi -- People who do yoga

Zeus -- In Greek mythology, the supreme ruler of Mount Olympus and the gods who lived there

I expect that this year The Weather Channel will be pretty conservative about assigning names, and only the very strongest winter storms will get named. For the eastern 2/3 of the country, storms that receive a ranking of "notable" or higher on NOAA's Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) or Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) are the only ones fairly certain to get named this winter. We only had one such storm during the winter of 2011 - 2012 (Snowtober, on October 29 - 31, 2011.) Thus, if we have another wimpy winter like last winter, we probably won't get to see the Wrath of Khan.

Naming of Winter Storms in Europe
Various organizations in Europe have been naming their winter storms since 1954, and the public has reacted positively to this practice. The names given by the Free University of Berlin are the most widely used, and have been in existence since 1954. Their meteorologists traditionally name all lows and highs that influence the Central European weather. In November 2002, the Free University began an Adopt-a-Vortex scheme, which allows anyone to buy a storm name. The money raised is used by the meteorology department to maintain weather observations at the university. Over 1,800 participants from 15 European countries plus Brazil, Japan and the United States have participated. So far in 2012, 90 European low pressure systems have been given names.


Figure 2. A huge wave from Winter Storm Klaus rolls into Santander, Spain, in this wunderphoto taken by wunderphotographer lunada on January 24, 2009. Klaus had a central pressure of 967 mb at its peak on the morning of January 24, and brought sustained winds of 59 mph, gusting to 81 mph, to Santander. Wind gusts as high as 124 mph (199 km/hr) occurred along the northern coast of Spain, and the storm killed at least 26 people in Spain, France, and Italy.

Naming of Lake Effect Winter Storms by NWS Buffalo
Tom Niziol, The Weather Channel's winter storm expert, was meteorologist-in-charge of the Buffalo, New York NWS office until January 2012. He tells me that for over ten years, the Buffalo NWS has been naming lake-effect storms. This was done only after the event occurred, to avoid any confusion, but was very popular with users. The names were chosen on a yearly basis by having the office staff vote for one of several themes--such as insects, heavenly bodies, famous scientists, minerals, Native American tribes, etc. Last winter, eight storms were named after breeds of cows (?!), as seen at the NWS Buffalo Lake Effect web page. I was not asked to contribute to this year's list of U.S. winter storms, but will lobby for next year's list of names to be taken from famous monsters--Rodan, Ghidorah, Nessie, Kong, Bunnicula, etc.


Figure 3. The most significant lake-effect snow storm of the winter of 2011 - 2012 was named Lake Effect Storm Evolene by the NWS office in Buffalo, New York. Image credit: NWS Buffalo Lake Effect web page.

Nadine
The Methuselah of Atlantic tropical storms, Tropical Storm Nadine, is slowly weakening over cool 22 - 24°C waters. Nadine will have accumulated 20 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Wind shear will rise to 30 knots and ocean temperatures will drop to 20°C by Thursday, which should cause Nadine to transition to an extratropical storm as it passes by the northern Azores Islands on Thursday and Friday.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a large area of heavy thunderstorms that is growing more organized. The storm is located about 925 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow. (Proserpina)
Hubby tried to use the snow-blower to clear the snow, unfortunately for him the snow is too deep for the snow-blower. The shovel and his arms will have to do the job.
Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow.
Blizzard 2010 (TonyInDC)
Blizzard  2010

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CSU forecasts average activity in Caribbean for October/November.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You're not telling me anything I'm not already aware of, Teddy.

Still doesn't make 96L any more fun or interesting to track since it's going to no-where land and who really cares about that.

Time to put a ribbon on the 2012 season and shift gears. At least that's the direction I'm heading.
I think what he's trying to say that it makes you look like you only care about storms affecting land.But I know where your coming from.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
96L.

Yet another fish system.

Nothing fun to track here, Folks.

Move on. Next storm please.


Tropical weather forecasting pertains to tropical cyclones, anywhere, not just the one that steamroll through the Caribbean or towards the US.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

I know. It will shortly. Though I personally can care less. I'm patiently waiting for Doc Master's to team up Cantore for a little Fall Foliage blog action. I'm hoping the next couple weeks will showcase this as long as the tropics remain quiet...
I think two for October is a good bet(this including 96L).Not sure about November as the troughs have been stronger earlier on and only going to get stronger.
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We're finally getting some good rainfall out of this frontal boundary in the coastal Tampa Bay Area. Only a quarter of an inch so far, but water vapor imagery indicates a long stream of moisture heading in. Have a great day everyone,
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nah. She doesn't put much stock in AccuWeather. She calls it HypuWeather. If you pay attention to the comments on the blog, you'll learn the views of other posters and also avoid making goofy baseless comments that offer nothing but criticism.
Don't pay them no attention.Any way 96L is probably a depression by now.I'm not sure why it hasn't been renumbered yet.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I understand, Wash, and share your wish.
There is a saying around here that a cloudy fall usually ends up with a snowy winter for my area.It's been cloudy some of these past mornings/days.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nothing funny about it

You don't have to feel funny about it. It's just my opinion.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


So

what? I'm just saying it's funny. I once posted 7 in a row.

On the other hand, 96L is not yet renumbered 15L:
AL, 96, 2012100312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 410W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Quoting 625. LargoFl:
yes its really coming down now, local weather guy said this afternoon the sun should come out again as these storms will move inland
Quoting 626. LargoFl:
Quoting 627. LargoFl:
Quoting 628. LargoFl:
Quoting 629. LargoFl:


5 comments in a row; LOL
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Quoting icmoore:


You're right I just looked outside and our side road that leads down to the Bay is flooded luckily we have the Bay for it to run off in.
yes its really coming down now, local weather guy said this afternoon the sun should come out again as these storms will move inland
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Quoting LargoFl:
going to be some local street flooding i bet its pouring..


You're right I just looked outside and our side road that leads down to the Bay is flooded luckily we have the Bay for it to run off in.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
going to be some local street flooding i bet its pouring..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Quoting TomballTXPride:

What a boring and non-eventful end to what seemed to be such an excitingly promising first half of the season.

Oh well.

Probably a good thing since we saw what happened with Isaac. No one wants that.
As I said before.I could really careless if the hurricane season ended with Nadine as I've already had my fun in tracking storms this year.Now since winter looks like It's coming early this year so i'm going to be more focused on my weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
619. SuzK
All of you who are dissing the idea of naming winter storms are frustrating me. I'm sorry if it makes you uncomfortable! It IS a step forward. It doesn't = more government. Ridiculous.

I would love to read some conversations here that centered on the melting North Pole and its impact on global weather. On why storms are getting stronger, rains heavier, winds accelerating, craziness, and not just hurricanes. You're wasting a lot of time on going-no-where storms. There have been stunningly anomalous weather events in the past month both in Alaska and Brazil, but nearly no mention of them here. You're missing the point altogether Im afraid.

The times they are a'changin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Shear is affecting 96L, just apparently not enough to bar development:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

No, I disagree. Nothing about the cloud pattern of the storm indicates wind shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ853-031230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0142.121003T1201Z-121003T1230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
801 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING LONGBOAT KEY...NEW PASS...SARASOTA BAY AND SIESTA KEY...

* UNTIL 830 AM EDT

* AT 759 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT JUST SOUTH OF SIESTA
KEY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
whew..getting some GREAT rains here this morning...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For once I agree with AccuWeather. They have just released their 2012-2013 snow forecast, calling for below average snowfall across much of the Northwest and Northern Plains, and above average snowfall across much of the East.

I believe the coverage of above average snowfall will be greater than depicted still.

Snow days compared to average:



Snow forecast:

...i hope they are wrong with the snowfall for the mid west, they need the melting snow later on to replenish their water supplies for the coming spring, remembering most of those states are still in a drought situation
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
I hope I reallly really do hope accuweather's forecast comes true.With all the false hopes these last two years...
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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
348 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A STALLED COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL JUST
WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE ATLANTIC PUSHING THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.
DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UPPER
ENERGY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH TO AROUND 90 INLAND AND
SOUTH FOR HIGHS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OVER
THE STATE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE ATLANTIC MERGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
US TO KEEP GENERALLY E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND HEATING AND
DIURNAL FORCINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY
WITH 40-50 PERCENT THURSDAY...30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY EVENING...AND
30-40 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S EACH DAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What?

SHEAR (KT) 5 11 10 12 14 17 21 19 24 10 12 19 34

Wind shear isn't affecting 96L. Its convection has weakened slightly since last night, but appears to be re-firing already in the eastern side of circulation.


Shear is affecting 96L, just apparently not enough to bar development:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
608. SLU
Quoting wxchaser97:

96L will likely be a depression soon, I say probably at 11am.


I think it's been a TD for at least 18 hours. Looking at how vigorous the system was yesterday, it's hard to believe it wasn't producing 35 - 40 mph winds by then and it appeared to have a closed circulation on visible imagery ....
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‎NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center‎

Tropical Storm Nadine moved up a bit through the record books. As of 8 a.m. EDT today (Wednesday), based on operational data, Nadine ranks 3rd as the longest time spent as a tropical storm at 20.5 days. Nadine is also tied for 5th place as the longest time spent as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane) at 21.0 days.
The all-time record for a tropical storm or tropical cyclone is 28 days, set by the "San Ciriaco Hurricane" of 1899. Nadine is not expected to challenge that record, but could still move up a little in the ranks before losing its tropical characteristics.
More historical information is found at:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E6.html
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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Good morning! A rainy start to the day in Madeira Beach.
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Quoting SLU:


Very strong language this am

96L will likely be a depression soon, I say probably at 11am.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Nadine moved up a bit through the record books. As of 8 a.m. EDT today (Wednesday), based on operational data, Nadine ranks 3rd as the longest time spent as a tropical storm at 20.5 days. Nadine is also tied for 5th place as the longest time spent as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane) at 21.0 days.
The all-time record for a tropical storm or tropical cyclone is 28 days, set by the "San Ciriaco Hurricane" of 1899. Nadine is not expected to challenge that record, but could still move up a little in the ranks before losing its tropical characteristics.
More historical information is found at: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E6.html
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What?

SHEAR (KT) 5 11 10 12 14 17 21 19 24 10 12 19 34

Wind shear isn't affecting 96L. Its convection has weakened slightly since last night, but appears to be re-firing already in the eastern side of circulation.


Shear in a couple of days I was refering to.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
602. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Very strong language this am
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Columbus Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.

Whoa. O_o

For me it might not even get out of the 40s.
Columbus Day: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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