Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting TomballTXPride:


Still incorporates the hype element, though. Hard to refute that.

What's next, Teddy?

Are we going to name floods, droughts, tornadoes?

I'm not completely sold on naming or not naming winter storms. I'm also not sold on how it is currently set up to happen, as I think it needs a more structured set of consistent criteria across the operational met community.

That aside, the slippery slope is not a logical form of reasoning. Debate the pros and cons of the issue here, in front of us, right now - not some situation that has been created through connected dots and imagination.

Quoting Chucktown:


The named winter storms will only be found at the Weather Channel, and most likely its NBC affiliates. The names will not be recognized anywhere else and will not be referred to by anyone else (NOAA, CNN, CBS, ABC, FOX. etc.)

what if CNN, CBS, ABC, FOX. etc decided to do there own winter storm naming. Could get very confusing.

Quoting SuzK:
All of you who are dissing the idea of naming winter storms are frustrating me. I'm sorry if it makes you uncomfortable! It IS a step forward...The times they are a'changin

yes.. and I hope they start naming droughts too and earthquakes maybe.. what else? Solar flares could be named I guess, and floods? Tidal waves are a no-brainer for sure.. get those baby books out we're gonna need a lot of names!

Quoting TomballTXPride:


Is this the criteria they are basing the decision off of?

You're completely missing the point of what I'm saying.

Heck, Europe has been naming them for years.

I bet that they were saying this when they decided to name hurricanes in 1950, that it was a ridiculous idea and would generate hype. Well, we're not complaining about it are we now?

Quoting all4hurricanes:
why is the forecast cone so short, do they expect TD15 to die in 3 days?

Pretty much.


48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Not even a post-tropical forecast point, which is rare.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
why is the forecast cone so short, do they expect TD15 to die in 3 days?

Yes.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...
...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG

does anyone know why the SFWMD page shows the GFS model as the AVNO model?

Quoting TomballTXPride:


I'm okay with that. How about at a local TV station? Aren't you a MET down in the lowland SC region....?

Yea, I work for the CBS affiliate, so we will not be referring to any named winter storm (thank goodness !!)

I personally think naming snowstorms is fine, between 2009-2011 D.C. got at least three really bad snowstorms and I can't remember which is which (or even if there were others). If they had names I would probably remember more.
As for naming other disasters, most others it just isn't practical.
Flash Floods and tornadoes happen too fast and there's too many
Dought can cover a vast and ill defined area but it doesn't move much

what i want to know is how are they going to classify bad winter storms...like...a category 1 winter storm?..is that going to say..a foot of snow and 60 mph winds possible..etc etc..and are they even going to..give a category 1-2-3-4 etc....alot of information still needs to be handed out to the public on this, we'll see this winter..IF..it does happen this winter, and see how TWC handles this.....they say with a named storm people pay more attention...well we shall see if that proves true or not..............i remember way back in new york when i lived there..weather said a foot or more of snow and high winds was coming...all i did was go out and buy some extra milk etc...and inside i was saying..great i have a few days off from work lol..........lets see how this goes.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


I'm not completely sold on naming or not naming winter storms. I'm also not sold on it is currently set up to happen, as I think it needs a more structured set of consistent criteria across the operational met community.

That aside, the slippery slope is not a logical form of reasoning. Debate the pros and cons of the issue here, in front of us, right now - not some situation that has been created through connected dots and imagination.

Agreed, there is no set criteria, only thing we know is they have to effect the east coast, and that's all. Nothing else, Not even a numbering system like WS01, WS02, Athena, WS03... ect.

Quoting LargoFl:
what i want to know is how are they going to classify bad winter storms...like...a category 1 winter storm?..is that going to say..a foot of snow and 60 mph winds possible..etc etc..and are they even going to..give a category 1-2-3-4 etc....alot of information still needs to be handed out to the public on this, we'll see this winter..IF..it does happen this winter, and see how TWC handles this.....they say with a named storm people pay more attention...well we shall see if that proves true or now..............i remember way back in new york when i lived there..weather said a foot or more of snow and high winds was coming...all i did was go out and buy some extra milk etc...and inside i was saying..great i have a few days off from work lol..........lets see how this goes.

NOAA already has a snowfall impact scale for the northeast. It is used in post-storm analysis based on snow amounts and the population affected by said amounts.

Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, I work for the CBS affiliate, so we will not be referring to any named winter storm (thank goodness !!)

well i used to work at ABC network many years ago..and IF..this naming issue gains ground..im sure the networks will latch onto the idea and report same...time will tell..its new and remember...when they first started naming tropical systems..people laughed way back then also...not anymore thats for sure...the affiliates will follow suite when the networks report named systems...but this is all guesswork right now.

Lets hope TWC uses this scale, then it would be uniform with NOAA.

The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

NESIS ranks the severity of an East Coast snowstorm based on snowfall amount and the population of the affected areas. NESIS provides a quantitative measure of the snowstorm's potential socio-economic impact, compared with storms of the past, and assigns each large storm with one of the five categories notable, significant, major, crippling or extreme. This scale was developed because of the impact Northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of transportation and economic impact.



An example from the 2006-2007 winter season is the complex storm that struck the mid-Atlantic and New England on February 14 and 15, 2007. This storm was classified as "major," or a Category 3 on The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS).



The strong storm produced widespread snowfall across the mid-Atlantic, bringing the heaviest amounts to interior regions of the Northeast. Freezing rain, sleet and a thick coating of ice brought widespread power outages in Washington , D.C. , Maryland and Virginia . Snowfall amounts exceeded 20 inches throughout large parts of New York and New England , but the heavily populated urban corridor from Washington , D.C. , to Boston received less than 5 inches(Figure 1). While the highest amounts were outside the largest urban areas of the Northeast, the storm's ranking as Category 3 reflects its massive size and the high snowfall totals in less populated areas of the region.



NESIS was jointly developed by Paul J. Kocin, a former winter weather expert at The Weather Channel and Louis W. Uccellini, director of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md. Thomas R. Karl, director of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, led the effort to make NESIS operational.



NESIS scores are calculated at the National Climatic Data Center and are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers.



Link

Quoting TomballTXPride:


I still go back to the point made yesterday regarding the geographic relativity of these systems.

Atlanta GA or Charleston SC is making National headlines if a fast-moving system decides to dump 3" of wet snow on Christmas Eve while that same event would be considered "no big deal" (and even welcomed) on the Megalopolis of the East Coast.

so would it get named by TWC or not?

I know my NBC affiliate won't be following TWC with their naming thing. Chief met Steve Weagle knows it's too confusing.

Quoting TomballTXPride:
718:

Can always count on you to pull up good info, links, or maps on relevant topics...

Your welcome. I read it yesterday, knew where to get it from.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


NOAA already has a snowfall impact scale for the northeast. It is used in post-storm analysis based on snow amounts and the population affected by said amounts.

exactly..after the storm has passed which is ok...but being post storm didnt alert the public on how bad the storm was going to be,how high the winds were going to be..would there be power outages and for how long, would i lose my roof..do i need to hurriedly order more fuel oil etc etc etc...alot can go into this winter warning thing, Im going to withold my own personal opinion until I see how this is handled and..IS the public now preparing better..just because..the storm has a name and are now more aware of the danger coming....its an interesting idea..but..alot more info is needed by the public and if its not given..the idea will fade away..we'll see...being in florida..it wont affect me much unless the winter storm goes into the gulf and brings freezing temps and high winds to my area..which..HAS happened in the past I hear..well we will see what happens

if tropical depression 15 don`t become Oscar today it may never will.

Quoting AussieStorm:

so would it get named by TWC or not?

exactly why..more info on exactly what determines a storm getting a name...they are being too tight lipped on How they are going to classify a storm..we'll see in the months to come..perhaps..they are at this moment..figuring out HOW to classify a winter storm?

Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri

Quoting TomballTXPride:


I still go back to the point made yesterday regarding the geographic relativity of these systems.

Atlanta GA or Charleston SC is making National headlines if a fast-moving system decides to dump 3" of wet snow on Christmas Eve while that same event would be considered "no big deal" (and even welcomed) on the Megalopolis of the East Coast.

The same could be made point could be made for a tropical storm hitting Florida... No big deal. but if it hit Maine.... Pretty big deal

Quoting TomballTXPride:


That's what I am wondering. You certainly can't restrict the naming scheme JUST to systems affecting the Northeast. Just as tropical cyclones are named throughout the entire Atlantic Basin, so should winter storms that have the possibility to affect virtually all of the lower 48 within the conterminous U.S.

And then there's the issue of setting a criteria. But one must take into account that the criteria or threshold cannot be the same for everywhere geographically within the lower 48, since Southern States are much less equipped to handles even small snowstorms.

you know alaska gets some Brutal winter storms huh and the northwestern states as well,My simple guess is..ALL states that get these winter storms will be included...i would guess ..hmmm say a state that isnt used to getting a foot of snow and high winds and blowing snow..hmmm lets say georgia or southern texas..the storm IS coming..perhaps with a name and a classification..the people would stand up and take notice..i dunno...people dont prepare NOW..until a hurricane is knocking down their house huh

Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.

Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri

..first off..Happy birthday!!..and no..the season is NOT over..October is the most dangerous month of all..for Florida the nws says..historically florida gets most of its tropical systems In october..more than any other month..but..most of these storms come from the gulf or carribean and not from africa..usually

Quoting Grothar:
Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.

ROFLMAO..good one GRO

Quoting TomballTXPride:

I really don't think storms are getting stronger. It's more the media is portraying this picture.

Easy for you to say if you haven't been living through them.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Lets hope TWC uses this scale, then it would be uniform with NOAA.

The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

NESIS ranks the severity of an East Coast snowstorm based on snowfall amount and the population of the affected areas. NESIS provides a quantitative measure of the snowstorm's potential socio-economic impact, compared with storms of the past, and assigns each large storm with one of the five categories notable, significant, major, crippling or extreme. This scale was developed because of the impact Northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of transportation and economic impact.



An example from the 2006-2007 winter season is the complex storm that struck the mid-Atlantic and New England on February 14 and 15, 2007. This storm was classified as "major," or a Category 3 on The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS).



The strong storm produced widespread snowfall across the mid-Atlantic, bringing the heaviest amounts to interior regions of the Northeast. Freezing rain, sleet and a thick coating of ice brought widespread power outages in Washington , D.C. , Maryland and Virginia . Snowfall amounts exceeded 20 inches throughout large parts of New York and New England , but the heavily populated urban corridor from Washington , D.C. , to Boston received less than 5 inches(Figure 1). While the highest amounts were outside the largest urban areas of the Northeast, the storm's ranking as Category 3 reflects its massive size and the high snowfall totals in less populated areas of the region.



NESIS was jointly developed by Paul J. Kocin, a former winter weather expert at The Weather Channel and Louis W. Uccellini, director of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md. Thomas R. Karl, director of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, led the effort to make NESIS operational.



NESIS scores are calculated at the National Climatic Data Center and are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers.



Link

great info there ty..and now we will see IF..TWC is going to name these storms BEFORE..or AFTER the storm passes.

Quoting LargoFl:
well i used to work at ABC network many years ago..and IF..this naming issue gains ground..im sure the networks will latch onto the idea and report same...time will tell..its new and remember...when they first started naming tropical systems..people laughed way back then also...not anymore thats for sure...the affiliates will follow suite when the networks report named systems...but this is all guesswork right now.

Yea, but it would have to be done at the government or national level, not by a private forecasting corporation like the Weather Channel. Its just like saying Accuguess or Weatherbell started issuing warnings on storms. Its going to be an exclusive product only found on the Weather Channel. Personally, I don't feel its a smart idea. A 4 inch snowfall in NYC is a nuisance, a 4 inch snowfall in Atlanta will shut down the city. Do we name it?

Storms are not getting any stronger,but they are affecting more people as would be expected.

Naming winter storms? Maybe. Are they really as predictable and dangerous as a hurricane? Maybe not. I can only imagine illiterate news anchors trying to pronounce Xerxes!!! Most of us Canadians think Americans overreact to a snowstorm and perhaps being prepared might do y'all some good. Being from Alberta, I wish every little system wasn't called an "Alberta Clipper"! Many of those so called storms do not originate from here!!!

Quoting overwash12:
Storms are not getting any stronger,but they are affecting more people as would be expected.

and we should not forget..some of the older folks who froze to death in some of these monster winter storms etc..winter storms are dangerous in their own way, not just wind...how many people over the years died because they got stranded on a snow closed road..miles from no where, out of gas finally and froze to death..winter can be deadly alright..a different kind of danger than from tropical system dangers..we'll see how this goes over time...in europe they are quite used to it.

Weathercasters cast doubt about TWC naming of winter storms.

Link

Caneswatch, post 721, don't be too sure. TWC is owned by NBC. They might order their affiliates to follow the naming game.

Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but it would have to be done at the government or national level, not by a private forecasting corporation like the Weather Channel. Its just like saying Accuguess or Weatherbell started issuing warnings on storms. Its going to be an exclusive product only found on the Weather Channel. Personally, I don't feel its a smart idea. A 4 inch snowfall in NYC is a nuisance, a 4 inch snowfall in Atlanta will shut down the city. Do we name it?

Dr. Masters referred specifically to the RSI in determining whether any particular storm would be named. The 'R' in RSI, of course, stands for "Regional", as the index is concerned with the regional impacts of a storm. And the different regions have different thresholds for snowstorm impact. From NOAA's RSI page: "For example, the thresholds for the Southeast are 2", 5", 10", and 15" of snowfall while the thresholds for the Northeast are 4", 10", 20", and 30" of snowfall."

I personally think naming winter storms is a great idea that should have been implemented years ago. I look forward to doing away with clunky names like "Snowmageddon III" or "The Great Northeast Blizzard of 1977". Of course, people can still call a storm whatever they'd like; this will simply allow the nation's largest non-government weather provider to streamline its own operations.

Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but it would have to be done at the government or national level, not by a private forecasting corporation like the Weather Channel. Its just like saying Accuguess or Weatherbell started issuing warnings on storms. Its going to be an exclusive product only found on the Weather Channel. Personally, I don't feel its a smart idea. A 4 inch snowfall in NYC is a nuisance, a 4 inch snowfall in Atlanta will shut down the city. Do we name it?

good point made, I would have liked the NWS to have come out with this idea, but they didnt, and commercial politics will come into play now...accuweather lets say..will say well we..arent going to follow the TWC....but..if this naming thing catches on over the next few years..they wont be left behind..they will..follow suit, but for now..its all up in the air...people might have laughed way back when..at thomas edison too..Imagine..LIGHT coming from a glass tube..no way, i wont have THAT..in my house..no way......lol...people dont like..new things, its in our nature i guess..until it proves itself

Quoting LargoFl:
and we should not forget..some of the older folks who froze to death in some of these monster winter storms etc..winter storms are dangerous in their own way, not just wind...how many people over the years died because they got stranded on a snow closed road..miles from no where, out of gas finally and froze to death..winter can be deadly alright..a different kind of danger than from tropical system dangers..we'll see how this goes over time...in europe they are quite used to it.

Freezing to death has to be a horrible way to go... I don't mind some cooler weather once in awhile but keep the sub-zero temps away!

I'm on the fence about naming winter storms. I do think that giving a storm a name will make some people pay a little more attention. But I'd feel a whole lot better about it if it wasn't happening because a commercial television outlet decided to do it, because they have no set rules as to how to gauge severity of a named storm as in TD, TS and hurricane Cat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 designations for tropical storms (and even there we have differing opinions as to how well that works).

However, when Wichita was under a high "TorCon" according to TWC last summer, I used that designation to convince my mother (who has no basement) to get out of her house and to a safer place. No one but TWC uses TorCon, but it worked to get my mother's attention and helped keep her safe. The Wichita tornado hit within two miles of her house.

you know something folks..we just came thru a great pro and con conversation on this naming thing..TWC folks are probably reading all this conversation and looking at the points made here..on both sides..afterall we all come from different area's of the country and probably have different concerns area wise..lets hope they take all this into consideration when creating this naming thing...MORE info please....

Quoting overwash12:
Freezing to death has to be a horrible way to go... I don't mind some cooler weather once in awhile but keep the sub-zero temps away!

yeah freezing can be brutal..I remember the huge PAIN in my freezing fingers and face..it really hurts..its why..in some way..lol..i moved to florida..havent seen a snowflake in..gee i cant remember when lol

.

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Quoting Grothar:
Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.

no discussion necessary.... ORIGINAL RECIPE!