End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

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Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting kmanislander:


You can see what is going on to our SE. Very cold cloud tops reaching up near 55 to 60K feet. That heavy thunderstorm activity can drive down surface pressures if they persist overnight. Surface convergence is fairly well established in this area so all the ingredients exist for a closed low to spin up over time.

Thank you. It has been very persistent for sure.
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Quoting belizeit:
Ok sorry the blogg is so slow models usually have a hard time picking up on these grothar blobbs so i,m wondering if we'll see some slow development on this


I've been posting that blob for 3 days, but I didn't think it would develop into much. It does look like a slight pressure drop, though.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Only 1 major hurricane this year is strange...The West Pacific is been very active this year with powerfull hurricanes,200-hPa velocity has been negative all the season in West pacific and not in our hemisphere

img

Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Well I just got back from school/picking up my little cousin and saw I got a little love from Jim Cantore today with him mentioning my blog on his Twitter page.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting MAweatherboy1:Tornado warned storm in SC has a nice hook on it... We'll probably see more development today.

Dissipated as it crossed over the warm front ... chase aborted
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163. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, because continually complaining about not getting any rain is going to bring it to you... :\

I know you guys really need the rain, but I think we've seen enough posts now.



I for one know what it feels like wishing for the rain ...and its hard not to complain. Last year I wanted rain so bad it would almost make me cry. I realy felt like I was living in hell last year (Texas)

I do hope that you get some rain soon!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Thank you Gro. I am training Ben in intelli-posting in case anything happens to me.


Well, keep up the good work. I heard that they will be renaming the GOES system to WENTS, soon.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 77
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE NEARLY THREE-WEEK-OLD NADINE HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...AND DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO A SINGLE BAND WHICH IS SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND THE
CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE FALLEN TO 3.5 AND
3.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT
BASED ON THESE...AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED WINDS OF
45-50 KT IN A CONVECTIVE-FREE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION.

NADINE HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LONG-TERM
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 180/4. WHILE THE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY
CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...IT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AND TURN TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. BY DAY 3...MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW NADINE BEING ADVECTED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AS A
POST-TROPICAL LOW...BEFORE BECOMING COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE
TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER FROM THIS SOLUTION...AND
SHOWS THE RESILIENT CIRCULATION OF NADINE PUSHING EASTWARD ALL THE
WAY TO GREAT BRITAIN. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
POSSIBILITIES...HOWEVER...IT NOW SHOWS NADINE BEING ABSORBED BY DAY
5. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THIS
CYCLE...SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NADINE EXPERIENCES AN
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS...
EVEN AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE NEW FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 35.4N 39.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 35.0N 38.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 34.7N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 34.7N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 35.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 42.4N 27.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1800Z 47.5N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN

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Quoting Grothar:



Thanks for Intellicast. Geoff, what would we do without you and Sammy.


Thank you Gro. I am training Ben in intelli-posting in case anything happens to me.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I used to like you lol. J/k but don't even say that in jest although this blob kind of has me nervous.
Ok sorry the blogg is so slow models usually have a hard time picking up on these grothar blobbs so i,m wondering if we'll see some slow development on this
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Quoting 7544:


it be interesting to see if that big red carb blob follows the little cuba blob and heads north to so fl too


It looks like they are doing just that. We are getting very heavy rain and thunderstorms right now, which would indicate the atmosphere is unstable.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I have been checking in off and on all day hoping you would drop in with your take on this weather. Winds in East End have been between 20-38 mph and pressure has been down around 1008-1009 mb. Kind of has me on pins and needles since this is just about the same way Wilma developed. People throw her name around but she did begin development from an ULL.


You can see what is going on to our SE. Very cold cloud tops reaching up near 55 to 60K feet. That heavy thunderstorm activity can drive down surface pressures if they persist overnight. Surface convergence is fairly well established in this area so all the ingredients exist for a closed low to spin up over time.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



Thanks for Intellicast. Geoff, what would we do without you and Sammy.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting CaribBoy:


BORING BORING BORING BORING.... REALLY HATE THESE STUBBORN WAVES.

Yes, because continually complaining about not getting any rain is going to bring it to you... :\

I know you guys really need the rain, but I think we've seen enough posts now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
Wow it now at 1008.1 mb in WPB!!
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151. 7544
Quoting Grothar:
Caribbean blob



it be interesting to see if that big red carb blob follows the little cuba blob and heads north to so fl too
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This looks like an AOC.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

Invest 96L still has quite a bit of work to do before it attains tropical depression status. However, the popcorn-like shower and thunderstorm activity we are currently seeing on geostationary imagery leads me to believe that gradual organization is going to continue into the tonight. The 850mb vorticity signature in association with the disturbance is becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for further development over the next 96 hours. After that time, a combination of significantly cooler Sea Surface Temperatures, much higher wind shear, and a less moist mid-level environment will all lead to steady weakening of whatever 96L is poised to be at that time. If it takes full advantage of the conditions it is currently in, there is a slight chance that it could attain minimal hurricane status, but as it appears right now, a peak as a moderate tropical storm is a safe bet...if the invest develops.

96L is not expected to be a threat to land as it follows Nadine northeast out into the Northeast Atlantic.



BORING BORING BORING BORING.... REALLY HATE THESE STUBBORN WAVES.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there,

Been off for a few weeks as things were quiet. The ULL that was overhead the NW Caribbean for the past couple of days has retrograded all the way down to a position onshore NW Honduras which has left low shear conditions in our area in a diffluent environment. This is conducive for slow tropical development this time of year and an anticyclone is situated just N of Cuba in the Florida straits which would aid in development if it drifts this way.

Surface pressures are relatively low ( 1009 mbs when I left home today at 1:30 pm ) and the wind was very strong out of the South over the sea side. I would not expect anything to spin up in a hurry but it would not surpirse me if something tried to get going in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The latest 850 mb map shows a weak signature for the first time over the NW Caribbean and there is broad low pressure at the surface. At a minimum heavy rain and blustery conditions are likely to prevail overnight.
I have been checking in off and on all day hoping you would drop in with your take on this weather. Winds in East End have been between 20-38 mph and pressure has been down around 1008-1009 mb. Kind of has me on pins and needles since this is just about the same way Wilma developed. People throw her name around but she did begin development from an ULL.
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000
FXUS62 KTBW 011918 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

CORRECTED TIMING OF SCA IN WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES SECTION

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
RATHER WET PATTERN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STRONG U/L LOW LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. COMBINATION OF STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND U/L LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CREATE DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
POISED TO BE ADVECTED NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PCPW VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25
INCHES OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN THIS REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS
DO NOT HANDLE TROPICAL PLUMES ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH ALL THAT
WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS. BUT PATTERN ON W/V IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DETAILS YET TO BE
DETERMINED.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIODS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OR
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WILL NEED TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIRMASS TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS SITES THROUGH
01/22Z THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION VFR IS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
IN THE VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
02/02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS DEVELOPING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
GRADIENT COLLAPSES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 87 75 88 / 30 50 50 50
FMY 77 89 75 89 / 40 60 50 40
GIF 76 90 74 89 / 20 50 40 50
SRQ 78 86 76 87 / 30 60 50 40
BKV 73 88 71 88 / 30 50 40 60
SPG 80 87 79 87 / 30 50 50 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL






You know, honestly the weather pattern that is evolving over Florida looks kinda lame right now, and I'm wondering about how much rain will actually fall the next several days. But they are the experts so, we'll see. I hope we'll get some good rain, after a very wet rainy season the last few weeks have been kinda dry around Tampa Bay/near the coast. So the shallow surface layer of soil could use some good soaking. It's still very green but we haven't had much rain at all the last 2 weeks.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Unlikely maybe but not impossible.

Guess who:



A large area of disturbed weather developed across much of the Caribbean Sea from an upper-level low across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A broad area of low pressure developed on October 13 to the southeast of Jamaica, and slowly became more concentrated as upper-level wind shear gradually decreased. Dvorak classifications began on October 14, and by late October 15 the surface circulation in the system became well-enough defined, with sufficiently organized deep convection, for the National Hurricane Center to designate the system as Tropical Depression Twenty-Four while located about 220 mi (350 km) east-southeast of Grand Cayma

Wilma's development was enhanced by the upper-level low, but the low itself did not spark development of the storm.

I modified the storm's article for clarification.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
IDK if it is trying to organize or not but I can tell you there is a lot of rain and winds now over 30 mph in Grand Cayman.


Hi there,

Been off for a few weeks as things were quiet. The ULL that was overhead the NW Caribbean for the past couple of days has retrograded all the way down to a position onshore NW Honduras which has left low shear conditions in our area in a diffluent environment. This is conducive for slow tropical development this time of year and an anticyclone is situated just N of Cuba in the Florida straits which would aid in development if it drifts this way.

Surface pressures are relatively low ( 1009 mbs when I left home today at 1:30 pm ) and the wind was very strong out of the South over the sea side. I would not expect anything to spin up in a hurry but it would not surpirse me if something tried to get going in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The latest 850 mb map shows a weak signature for the first time over the NW Caribbean and there is broad low pressure at the surface. At a minimum heavy rain and blustery conditions are likely to prevail overnight.
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Quoting belizeit:
I think pre 97 L will become a major hitting cayman as a cat 5
I used to like you lol. J/k but don't even say that in jest although this blob kind of has me nervous.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If you guys are wondering, the area in the Caribbean is associated with convergence with an Upper Level Low. Development is unlikely.
Unlikely maybe but not impossible.

Guess who:



A large area of disturbed weather developed across much of the Caribbean Sea from an upper-level low across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A broad area of low pressure developed on October 13 to the southeast of Jamaica, and slowly became more concentrated as upper-level wind shear gradually decreased. Dvorak classifications began on October 14, and by late October 15 the surface circulation in the system became well-enough defined, with sufficiently organized deep convection, for the National Hurricane Center to designate the system as Tropical Depression Twenty-Four while located about 220 mi (350 km) east-southeast of Grand Cayma
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Good news as Goes 14 brief outage has been fixed.


Subject: Administrative: GOES-14 (GOES-EAST) possible data
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------020505030103050708020904
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

*Update: *ESPC has investigated and corrected the degradation issues
regarding GOES-14 East images.
*
Topic: *GOES-14 (GOES-East) possible data degradation Oct 01, 2012

*Date/Time**Issued: *Oct 01, 2012 1952 UTC*****
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products**

*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*Oct 01, 2012****J-day 275 @ 1732 UTC*
*

*Date/Time of Expected End:*****Oct 01, 2012J-day 275 @ 1915 UTC**
****

*Length of Event:*1.45 Hours

*Details/Specifics of Change:*ESPC is noticing some degradation on the
GOES-14 EAST images. ESPC is currently investigating this situation.

*Update: *ESPC has investigated and corrected the degradation issues
regarding GOES-14 East images. ESPC technicians discovered a bad data
clock connected to the ingestor.
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Weather On Mars Surprisingly Warm, Curiosity Rover Finds

by SPACE.com Staff
Date: 01 October 2012 Time: 07:00 AM ET


NASA's Mars rover Curiosity is enjoying some nice, warm weather on the Red Planet — and spring hasn't even come to its landing site yet.

Curiosity's onboard weather station, which is called the Remote Environment Monitoring Station (REMS), has measured air temperatures as high as 43 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius) in the afternoon. And temperatures have climbed above freezing during more than half of the Martian days, or sols, since REMS was turned on, scientists said.

These measurements are a bit unexpected, since it's still late winter at Gale Crater, the spot 4.5 degrees south of the Martian equator where Curiosity touched down on Aug. 5.

"That we are seeing temperatures this warm already during the day is a surprise and very interesting," Felipe Gómez, of the Centro de Astrobiología in Madrid, said in a statement.

Curiosity's main goal is to determine if the Gale area is, or ever was, capable of supporting microbial life. Most researchers think present-day Mars is too dry and cold to host life as we know it, but they may have to rethink some of their assumptions if temperatures climb considerably through the spring and summer.

"If this warm trend carries on into summer, we might even be able to foresee temperatures in the 20s [Celsius], and that would be really exciting from a habitability point of view," Gómez said. "In the daytimes, we could see temperatures high enough for liquid water on a regular basis. But it’s too soon to tell whether that will happen or whether these warm temperatures are just a blip.”

While Curiosity's days are relatively pleasant weather-wise, the same can't be said for the rover's nights. Air temperatures drop dramatically after the sun goes down, plunging as low as minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 70 Celsius) just before dawn, scientists said.

Such big swings occur because the effects of solar heating are much more pronounced on Mars than they are on Earth. The Red Planet's surface is much drier, and its atmosphere is just 1 percent as thick as Earth's.

REMS measurements also suggest that atmospheric pressure is on the rise at Gale Crater, researchers said. This information is in line with mission scientists' expectations.

In winter, Mars gets cold enough for carbon dioxide at the poles to freeze, forming seasonal "dry ice" caps. Since carbon dioxide dominates the Red Planet's thin atmosphere, this freeze-out process causes pressures to vary from season to season.

Models and data from previous missions had predicted that Curiosity would land when pressures were around their lowest. The rover's measurements have borne this out, rising from a daily average of around 730 pascals during Curiosity's first three weeks on Mars to about 750 pascals more recently, researchers said.

“The pressure data show a very significant daily variation of pressure, following a fairly consistent cycle from sol-to-sol," said REMS principal investigator Javier Gómez-Elvira. "The minimum is near 685 pascals and the maximum near 780 pascals."

Even that maximum value is nowhere near what we're used to here on Earth. Average atmospheric pressure at sea level on our planet is 101,325 pascals — about 140 times what Curiosity is experiencing inside Gale Crater.

REMS sustained some minor damage during landing, when rocks kicked up by the engines on Curiosity's sky crane descent stage apparently knocked out wind sensors on one of the instrument's two booms.

But wind sensors on the other boom are working fine, so mission scientists don't anticipate too much of an impact.
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If you guys are wondering, the area in the Caribbean is associated with convergence with an Upper Level Low. Development is unlikely.
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Good afternoon all.

Invest 96L still has quite a bit of work to do before it attains tropical depression status. However, the popcorn-like shower and thunderstorm activity we are currently seeing on geostationary imagery leads me to believe that gradual organization is going to continue into the tonight. The 850mb vorticity signature in association with the disturbance is becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for further development over the next 96 hours. After that time, a combination of significantly cooler Sea Surface Temperatures, much higher wind shear, and a less moist mid-level environment will all lead to steady weakening of whatever 96L is poised to be at that time. If it takes full advantage of the conditions it is currently in, there is a slight chance that it could attain minimal hurricane status, but as it appears right now, a peak as a moderate tropical storm is a safe bet...if the invest develops.

96L is not expected to be a threat to land as it follows Nadine northeast out into the Northeast Atlantic.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32857
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I think pre 97 L will become a major hitting cayman as a cat 5
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
357 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-104-022000-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
357 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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What a great show Grothar...
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314 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF COCOA BEACH...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS NEAR 30
KNOTS...EXTENDING FROM FROM ORMOND-BY-THE-SEA TO COCOA BEACH...
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN
FLAGLER BEACH AND PORT CANAVERAL THROUGH 415 PM.
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Boomers on the east coast huh.........
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
126. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if we lose 14 then we will be in the dark for sure whats going on with the sat.s these days first 13 now maybe 14 meets same fate


It hasn't moved all that far yet & I see the 19:15 frame...maybe we aren't all doom. Well other than the Caribbean blob. That thing grew during the outage.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39438
19:15UTC IMAGE BACK! HOPEFULLY THE MESS NEAR THE LEEWARDS WILL BRING ME RAIN HERE AT 18N 63W. NOT MUCH SO FAR AND AS ALWAYS ALL RAIN IS FOR GUADELOUPE AND SURROUNDINGS.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Skyepony:
I was hoping they started the drifting to the east a little later than planned.. This might be bad..


*Topic: *GOES-14 (GOES-East) possible data degradation Oct 01, 2012

*Date/Time**Issued: *Oct 01, 2012 1903 UTC*****
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products**

*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*Oct 01, 2012****J-day 275 @ 1732 UTC*
*

*Date/Time of Expected End:*TBD****

*Length of Event:*TBD*
*

*Details/Specifics of Change:*ESPC is noticing some degradation on the
GOES-14 EAST images. ESPC is currently investigating this situation.
if we lose 14 then we will be in the dark for sure whats going on with the sat.s these days first 13 now maybe 14 meets same fate
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST...OVER THE SOUTH SECTION OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE VICINITY OF PONCE...AND LATER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ENHANCE BY
THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR
SUNSET TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH IS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL REGION IS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATE A SLOT OF DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO NEAR 1.10 INCHES AND THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB AT 315K.
IF THIS VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY MOST PROBABLY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

THE EAST WIND FLOW WHICH IS PREVAILING AT THIS TIME...IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FRIDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER TRJMZ..AND
TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 01/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 60 30 20 20
STT 80 89 79 90 / 60 30 20 20
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carib boy system could be a blockbuster
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Another one :-)

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
Quoting unknowncomic:
Anything happening with the Caribbean blob? Sure is raining in miami today.
IDK if it is trying to organize or not but I can tell you there is a lot of rain and winds now over 30 mph in Grand Cayman.
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118. flsky
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
AT 304 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR ADRIAN...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF CONWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. #SCwx


Gonna try to see what I can pick up on RadioRefernce


So, where's Adrian. Please cite more completely.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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