End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

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Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Severe/tornado threat will shift north with the low tomorrow. The threat may be a little lower tomorrow but people should still take it serious.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Multiple rotating storms in NC right now... I'm surprised the SPC doesn't have a watch or MD out for that area... Right now none of the radar signatures scream major tornado potential but definitely a situation to watch.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
TNC041-159-169-189-012245-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0064.121001T2213Z-121001T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
EASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF WOODBURY...
AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WATERTOWN AROUND 520 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE ALEXANDRIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 8586 3596 8602 3597 8626 3639 8627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 191DEG 26KT 3605 8612

$$

ROSE



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Quoting KeyWestbeachcomber:
I just came in from gardening when I looked up from some aggressive weed pulling I saw to S.W a big angry, dark, sky.So I came here.I am only human and not a weatherwoman..would someone tell me wtf that red/black/white angry looking blob is below Cuba ? Havana being 90 miles south of us.Thank you Sirs and Madames ~(-_-)~


It is an area of showers being generated primarily by upper-level diffluence between an upper trough over the Gulf and an upper low near Honduras. There is no tropical wave in this area according to the NHC surface analysis, nor do I see any evidence of a surface trough of any sort. Development is unlikely, although upper-level winds are not unfavorable for development.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Tornado warning for Wilson County, TN

Thanks to the TV alert system. I don't live in that county.
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Miami NWS Disco

IN ADDITION, VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS
ANOTHER AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA
MOVING NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH POP GUIDANCE FROM THE MET AND
MAV LEAD ME TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY FOR LATER TONIGHT BUT EVEN
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR TWO MAIN REASONS. FIRST, THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES ONLY TO BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WHICH WILL TEND TO
INHIBIT HEAVIER CONVECTION, I.E. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AND THUS
LIMIT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. SECOND AND
RELATED TO THE FIRST, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING AROUND THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER A ONE HOUR PERIOD AND FOUR TO FIVE INCHES PER
A SIX HOUR PERIOD. SO, DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE QPF AMOUNTS, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW THESE VALUES AND BE IN THE RANGE OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TWO DAY PERIOD.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11104
Quoting JLPR2:
Nasa images are back, though only the big views.

That's quite a blob south of Cuba and Caymans. Are conditions favorable there?
Member Since: August 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
WECT News
New tornado warning for Western Columbus County. Standby.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just came in from gardening when I looked up from some aggressive weed pulling I saw to S.W a big angry, dark, sky.So I came here.I am only human and not a weatherwoman..would someone tell me wtf that red/black/white angry looking blob is below Cuba ? Havana being 90 miles south of us.Thank you Sirs and Madames ~(-_-)~
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Quoting wxchaser97:

She might or she might not, it is Nadine we are talking about so nothing is certain. Her look however is starting to make me believe she has a few days at the most to live. These cool waters and higher shear is finally affecting her.
18z SHIPS:

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NADINE AL142012 10/01/12 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 46 44 38 31 27 31 40 39 37 29
V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 46 44 38 31 27 31 40 39 37 29
V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 50 49 49 47 45 42 41 42 42 41 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 18 21 22 16 18 31 28 33 45 38 49 51 62
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 4 1 3 5 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -12
SHEAR DIR 292 285 312 329 342 354 344 281 236 238 247 244 213
SST (C) 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.3 22.2 21.2 19.9 18.2 16.5 16.0 16.4

She might last through 48 hours, as the upper flow is supposed to be northerly, which doesn't seem conducive to an abrupt extratropical transition. However, I wouldn't be surprised if this model is underestimating the effects that the large baroclinic low will have on Nadine.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

610 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

NORTHWESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

SOUTHEASTERN ROBESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA



* UNTIL 700 PM EDT



* AT 610 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR

EVERGREEN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF WHITEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 15 MPH.



* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

BOARDMAN...



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS

THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY

ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU

ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE

LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO

NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.



&&



PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN

YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.



LAT...LON 3462 7895 3446 7865 3430 7898 3435 7905

TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 213DEG 13KT 3438 7896



$$



WEISS
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31885
Meteorologist Tim Buckley
This tornado warned cell has moved OUT of Columbus County and into Bladen. Still showing good rotation here. Take cover near Carvers.

Bladen County got hit last year with the tornado outbreak killing 3 people..not saying it will happen again, just mentioning a fact..

by the way, its sunny and beautiful here right now which not be a good thing..
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11104
Quoting KoritheMan:


Kinda think she could turn extratropical before 72 hours.

She might or she might not, it is Nadine we are talking about so nothing is certain. Her look however is starting to make me believe she has a few days at the most to live. These cool waters and higher shear is finally affecting her.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Wow..its getting real..

WECT News
We're watching Council very closely. You may be starting to see that warmer air move in right now.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26006
Quoting wxchaser97:
I'm going to miss Nadine a little when she turns extra-tropical in a few days. Well now we got 96L to watch for development.


Kinda think she could turn extratropical before 72 hours.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
These storms in the North Carolina and South Carolina are strengthening and more tornado warnings are likely. This area needs to be watched as tornadoes have already been reported.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Every storm entering North Carolina is rotating.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31885
199. JLPR2
Nasa images are back, though only the big views.

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I'm going to miss Nadine a little when she turns extra-tropical in a few days. Well now we got 96L to watch for development.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
what is going on?? SE NC/SC was not in the slight risk area today..

Meteorologist Tim Buckley
Another storm approaching Tabor City is also showing signs of rotation. No warning yet, but possible. #ncwx
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Should see a new tornado warning very shortly.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31885
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Quoting TropicTraveler:


Whoa - that's a gorgeous shot and the blob looks very impressive.


It does look like it is getting bigger.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26006
Meteorologist Tim Buckley
Possible tornado will pass about 5 miles east of Clarkton, heading NE only at about 20 mph. Seek shelter if in path. #ilm #ncwx

We had two tornados confirmed today and we werent even in the slight risk area?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Confirmed tornado in the county to my west. I didn't think we'd have to worry about this today.


Stay safe today TA, I wonder if GAstormz is getting anything today?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Confirmed tornado in the county to my west. I didn't think we'd have to worry about this today.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31885
Quoting Grothar:


Whoa - that's a gorgeous shot and the blob looks very impressive.
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Quoting pottery:

Ignore him, Gro.
We certainly do not want that kind of thing here... scribes, tablets, hieroglyphics.....


:)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26006
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26006
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26006
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, Caicos is alright.

Agreed!

se my post again. I edited it.
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Quoting pottery:

Ignore him, Gro.
We certainly do not want that kind of thing here...


Ah, Caicos is alright.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26006
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


C'mon Grothar...

Act your age.

: )

Ignore him, Gro.
We certainly do not want that kind of thing here... scribes, tablets, hieroglyphics.....
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Quoting Grothar:


.!. Hey, we got to get the blog going somehow.


C'mon Grothar...

Act your age.

: )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
Quoting kmanislander:


:-(


.!. Hey, we got to get the blog going somehow.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26006
The blob is growing--long live the blob!
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180. whitewabit (Mod)
Wilma

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Quoting Grothar:


That is where Wilma formed.


:-(
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15801
Quoting Grothar:


I've been posting that blob for 3 days, but I didn't think it would develop into much. It does look like a slight pressure drop, though.
I've see a couple of storms forming in these conditions but they usually take time to form and usually have very little model support. Temperatures are very hot here in Belize today outdoor its 100 F and indoor 94.6 F
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Quoting kmanislander:


You can see what is going on to our SE. Very cold cloud tops reaching up near 55 to 60K feet. That heavy thunderstorm activity can drive down surface pressures if they persist overnight. Surface convergence is fairly well established in this area so all the ingredients exist for a closed low to spin up over time.



That is where Wilma formed.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26006
Nadine so far. Now suppose she decides to move back west in a few days.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26006
I wouldn't be surprised if this West Pac storm tries to wrap its convection around and intensify tonight... There hasn't been a good microwave pass to determine if an eyewall is forming but if it is we might get some decent intensification.



T numbers suggest its up around 50kts now but JTWC kept it at 35.
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Quoting JLPR2:
It's alive, alive! XD
The season has been on hold, waiting ...



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Quoting belizeit:
Ok sorry the blogg is so slow models usually have a hard time picking up on these grothar blobbs so i,m wondering if we'll see some slow development on this
I know. I was just joking but I would not be surprised if something did spin up there.
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Quoting kmanislander:


You can see what is going on to our SE. Very cold cloud tops reaching up near 55 to 60K feet. That heavy thunderstorm activity can drive down surface pressures if they persist overnight. Surface convergence is fairly well established in this area so all the ingredients exist for a closed low to spin up over time.

Thank you. It has been very persistent for sure.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.