End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

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Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:

...I consider 10C to be cold.


We have the record for the coldest wind chill recorded in Ontario. -58C.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting KoritheMan:

...I consider 10C to be cold.

If you think 10C is cold then you are going to have a bad time.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

How disappointing would it be if 96L became a TD but didn't get named, lol.
Do not even say that I will be really disappoint.this is the only list that haven`t reach the O letter of the six Atlantic lists.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4351
Quoting KoritheMan:

...I consider 10C to be cold.

Well you're a wuss, so...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

Quoting wxchaser97:

They have lower pressures and before they become a TD or TS they have some spin.
Just so everyone knows, I believe a 3+ mb drop in 24 hours is considered to be one of the signs of a developing system. So if anyone sees a tropical wave like that...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 577 Comments: 20626

Quoting yqt1001:


Hey take all the snow you want. :P the last time the south got decent snow it was a burning 10C here! I just dont want snow in early october
...I consider 10C to be cold.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 577 Comments: 20626
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

How disappointing would it be if 96L became a TD but didn't get named, lol.

I would be mad/disappointed, however I believe we get Oscar out of 96L.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Edit: My bad. Just a mistake. Too late for me, lol.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5954
Quoting yqt1001:
I see that the snowcasters will be out in full force in the next couple of days. Not sure why people care so much about snow, it really sucks when it's the only thing you see for 6 months.

Snow means business for me though and I'm just saying it is getting colder.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting KoritheMan:


But it doesn't suck at all when you only see it once a decade.


Hey take all the snow you want. :P the last time the south got decent snow it was a burning 10C here! I just dont want snow in early october
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting wxchaser97:

They have lower pressures and before they become a TD or TS they have some spin.


That's when 96L suddenly dies and we don't anymore storms for the rest of the season so the curse lives on.

How disappointing would it be if 96L became a TD but didn't get named, lol.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7788
Quoting Gorty:


Does a tropical wave have some spin?

They have lower pressures and before they become a TD or TS they have some spin.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

After two attempts, it looks like the third time is the charm. 96L will likely become TS Oscar and break this stupid naming list curse.

That's when 96L suddenly dies and we don't anymore storms for the rest of the season so the curse lives on.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
305. Gorty
Quoting KoritheMan:


But it doesn't suck at all when you only see it once a decade.


I see it every year :p

But, I do get some winters where I get no snow but that doesnt happen very often.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

After two attempts, it looks like the third time is the charm. 96L will likely become TS Oscar and break this stupid naming list curse.


I agree. 96L will likely become Oscar in the coming days.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting yqt1001:
I see that the snowcasters will be out in full force in the next couple of days. Not sure why people care so much about snow, it really sucks when it's the only thing you see for 6 months.


But it doesn't suck at all when you only see it once a decade.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 577 Comments: 20626
The thunder is here in Lake Worth, Fl.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11166
301. barbamz
12:17 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, it's hard getting a laugh out of this crowd. Great video. Still chuckling a little.


Some Germans aren't amused at all either, Gro. They think, this comedy video does great injustice to them - this it at least what german blogs are saying in the majority. They cannot laugh; poor people!
On the other hand: reality is nearly as much as a comedy like the video. Look at those news from poor, beloved Greece (and I appreciate this country very much; have been there at least 12 times).

Are those things weather related? Maybe not immediately. But impacts on climate and environment are always related in some way to the economic situation (or the other way round)... And we are going to see hard times, I believe.
Nevertheless let's celebrate live as long as we can and don't lose the ability for laughing (you won't anyways :-)).
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5954
300. KoritheMan
12:17 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Dosen't one have to be "outside" to enjoy da weather?

: )


I've been outside for the last hour. I would certainly say I enjoyed the cold air.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 577 Comments: 20626
299. CosmicEvents
12:17 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


You have to ask Carnac the Magnificent.
Carnac's on tomorrow night. For tonight Bombastic Bushkin measures 2 1/2".
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5591
298. MAweatherboy1
12:16 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:
I see that the snowcasters will be out in full force in the next couple of days. Not sure why people care so much about snow, it really sucks when it's the only thing you see for 6 months.

We're not all Canadian though :)

Henry M has put out his first snow map of the year!!!!

Link
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7788
297. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:15 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
296. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:14 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
If you go to washingtonpost.com it shows a high of only 49 degrees next monday.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
295. Skyepony (Mod)
12:14 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
OSCAT isn't working right. Stopped short of central Atlantic this morning.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 37871
294. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:12 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Civicane49:

After two attempts, it looks like the third time is the charm. 96L will likely become TS Oscar and break this stupid naming list curse.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
293. yqt1001
12:12 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
I see that the snowcasters will be out in full force in the next couple of days. Not sure why people care so much about snow, it really sucks when it's the only thing you see for 6 months.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
292. Gorty
12:12 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Usually they have at least some indication of lower pressure or spin and there is no tropical wave located there. I think development won't occur with this.


Does a tropical wave have some spin?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
291. wxchaser97
12:10 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Gorty:


Aren't a lot of areas disturbed weather like that?

Usually they have at least some indication of lower pressure or spin and there is no tropical wave located there. I think development won't occur with this.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
290. Civicane49
12:10 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
289. Gorty
12:07 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Right now I don't think so as there is nothing at the surface that indicates something would develop. However we need to begin to watch that area for develop as it is that time of year.


Aren't a lot of areas disturbed weather like that?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
288. MAweatherboy1
12:07 AM GMT on October 02, 2012


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7788
287. Grothar
12:07 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
286. wxchaser97
12:04 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Gorty:
Will the NHC color the western Carrib if it persists?

Right now I don't think so as there is nothing at the surface that indicates something would develop. However we need to begin to watch that area for develop as it is that time of year.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
285. Slamguitar
12:04 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Really, I don't know if we would get snow this early but maybe it is possible.


My forecast went up from 0.01in to 0.02in in just one day! DOOM!! (of the snowy variety)
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
284. Grothar
12:03 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
283. allancalderini
12:03 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
96L is a developing depression and I think we will see development out of it.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Might be renumber tomorrow afternoon or night.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4351
282. wxchaser97
12:02 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting winter123:

The northern states from Idaho to Michigan will be cold enough for some snow Friday-Sunday. It seems like we skipped right over Fall to Winter. Undoubtedly the snow falling on the leaves will cause issues.


Really, I don't know if we would get snow this early but maybe it is possible.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
281. Gorty
12:02 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Will the NHC color the western Carrib if it persists?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
280. Civicane49
12:01 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Invest 96L:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
279. wxchaser97
12:00 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
96L is a developing depression and I think we will see development out of it.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
278. Articuno
12:00 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Dosen't one have to be "outside" to enjoy da weather?

: )

true dat pat
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2417
277. Grothar
11:59 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting barbamz:


Thanks a lot. Sometimes it's difficult for Europeans to entertain people in the US; situation and humours might be different at time. I just came back from a late evening date and have to go to bed.
Have a good evening everyone and good luck with bad weather in the East US. In Germany we are enjoying right now so called "Altweibersommer" = Summer of old women = sort of Indian summer. Name derived from the gossamers which appear especially in autumn and which resemble to the fine white hair of elderly women = the norns, as people in former times thought. So nothing dramatic can be reported from the mid of Europe, just very fine weather. Greetings to all of you!


Yeah, it's hard getting a laugh out of this crowd. Great video. Still chuckling a little.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
276. allancalderini
11:58 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
code red people Oscar might come finally.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4351
275. Slamguitar
11:58 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting winter123:

The northern states from Idaho to Michigan will be cold enough for some snow Friday-Sunday. It seems like we skipped right over Fall to Winter. Undoubtedly the snow falling on the leaves will cause issues.



I remember many of my trees lost large branches in the Fall of '09 after a big October snowstorm. All that extra weight a tree can hold in snow with leaves... It was lake-enhanced which made it worse for MI.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
274. Patrap
11:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Dosen't one have to be "outside" to enjoy da weather?

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
273. GeoffreyWPB
11:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11166
272. Articuno
11:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Nadine to affect the Azores huh.. thought it was "no threat to land"
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2417
271. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 705 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
270. Grothar
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how heavy is it


You have to ask Carnac the Magnificent.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
269. Slamguitar
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!.I'm surly pumped on the cool air coming.When I saw 49 as a high I had to squint really hard at the screen.I haven't seen 40 degrees since April last year.


That rivals my upcoming forecasted highs!

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
268. washingtonian115
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
Quoting Articuno:

You sure that's not a low? I am very close to you and my forecast calls for 63 as a high.
If you go to washingtonpost.com it shows a high of only 49 degrees next monday.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16981

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.