End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

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Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hi to all from America's Left Coast

My left or your left? =P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
Dang I see Nadine still alive
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Hi to all from America's Left Coast
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365. Relix
Quoting KoritheMan:

He's not gonna make it to Puerto Rico with that huge ass trough in the way.


Love it. Straight to the point. One can worry though :P! Especially at that lat haha
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello good evening!!,we trust your opinion a lot on this blog for being serious and informative!.
What is your feeling about this system south of Cuba?,I know we are going to get a lot of rain!! here in South Florida,but you are right! I think this moisture has been seating there for a while now and we could see some type of tropical development in the next couple of days,any drops in pressure in the Cayman?.Thank you!.


This time of year it takes days for something to really get going in the NW Caribbean.

Surface pressures have been low but not exceptionally so, around the 1009 mb mark. Nothing of immediate concern going on.
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Quoting Relix:


Models not doing so hot with him though


So Oscar could do an Ivan or be Nadine's spawn and follow in his mother's footsteps. Mamma's boy much?

I think this will be the first time ever (if Oscar goes north) that the Azores get affected by more tropical cyclones than the US, Mexico and Canada. I'm not diminishing the impacts of say, Isaac, when saying that - just basing it off of the storms themselves, not the damage they cause.
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362. Gorty
Quoting KoritheMan:

He's not gonna make it to Puerto Rico with that huge ass trough in the way.


Let's just say for the sake of learning, some models show that trough retreating to the west and others do not. Which models do you believe?

THIS IS JUST TO LEARN SOMETHING NEW BTW.
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Well this can't be right, lol.

Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 3 1 6 9 10 15 14 11 11 8 N/A N/A N/A
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870

Quoting Relix:


Models not doing so hot with him though
He's not gonna make it to Puerto Rico with that huge ass trough in the way.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting Relix:


Models not doing so hot with him though


Well,one model that goes very bullish is SHIP.

WHXX01 KWBC 020102
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0102 UTC TUE OCT 2 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20121002 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121002 0000 121002 1200 121003 0000 121003 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 36.0W 10.8N 37.7W 11.8N 39.3W 12.8N 40.7W
BAMD 9.9N 36.0W 10.8N 37.7W 11.6N 39.2W 12.2N 40.4W
BAMM 9.9N 36.0W 10.8N 37.8W 11.7N 39.3W 12.5N 40.6W
LBAR 9.9N 36.0W 10.8N 38.2W 11.7N 40.5W 12.5N 42.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121004 0000 121005 0000 121006 0000 121007 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 41.8W 16.6N 42.3W 21.5N 34.8W 28.2N 25.1W
BAMD 12.7N 41.5W 13.3N 42.9W 13.9N 43.7W 14.8N 45.6W
BAMM 13.2N 41.5W 14.6N 42.5W 16.9N 40.9W 18.4N 40.5W
LBAR 13.4N 45.3W 14.6N 48.7W 17.4N 49.5W 21.7N 47.6W
SHIP 62KTS 79KTS 90KTS 99KTS
DSHP 62KTS 79KTS 90KTS 99KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 30.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm probably still gonna forecast winter weather and severe weather, lol. It just won't be on the strenuous basis I do now.

Oh good, yeah it won't be as crazy as it is now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

Quoting wxchaser97:

When hurricane season ends snow season begins for me so I'm still on the clock. Actually it is not bad writing blogs almost everyday as that is part of my independent study which I get credit for.
I'm probably still gonna forecast winter weather and severe weather, lol. It just won't be on the strenuous basis I do now.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yep. I've pretty much accepted that I won't have much free time until winter, when hurricane season ends.

When hurricane season ends snow season begins for me so I'm still on the clock. Actually it is not bad writing blogs almost everyday as that is part of my independent study which I get credit for.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
354. Relix


Models not doing so hot with him though
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Quoting Gorty:


Is that why you dont play sc2 much? :(
Yep. I've pretty much accepted that I won't have much free time until winter, when hurricane season ends.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
352. Gorty
Quoting KoritheMan:

Unlike you kids, I am a man of limited free time. Enjoy it while you can.


Is that why you dont play sc2 much? :(
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349. Relix
96L: at 9.9N? Hell naw
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Still got several hours myself.

So close but yet so far, rain near the Ohio border.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

Speaking of weather rain is almost here and it will be the first time in a week I have got rain.


Still got several hours myself.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

I wasn't trying to be mean, lol. Lighten up.

Sorry, still under the weather. Speaking of weather rain is almost here and it will be the first time in a week I have got rain.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
345. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (T1220)
9:00 AM JST October 2 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gaemi (1004 hPa) located at 16.7N 115.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 16.0N 115.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.5N 115.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.3N 114.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (T1219)
9:00 AM JST October 2 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Iwo Jima

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Maliksi (992 hPa) located at 20.3N 143.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
375 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 23.2N 140.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 29.0N 140.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 37.4N 147.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of Japan
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I actually do cleaning work at my dad's work and before that a salon, until I got kicked. I'm not a person who sits on the computer all day, we both have lives.
I wasn't trying to be mean, lol. Lighten up.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

The NW Caribbean continues to sit and stew. Nothing imminent but the first two weeks of October are when we would expect to see some action in this area.

About 6 weeks ago I posted that the season would likely shut down early this year and with nothing of note at the September peak that could well be the case.
Have to wait and see.
Hello good evening!!,we trust your opinion a lot on this blog for being serious and informative!.
What is your feeling about this system south of Cuba?,I know we are going to get a lot of rain!! here in South Florida,but you are right! I think this moisture has been seating there for a while now and we could see some type of tropical development in the next couple of days,any drops in pressure in the Cayman?.Thank you!.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for 96L.

AL, 96, 2012100200, , BEST, 0, 99N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO



Do you evere sleep. Evere time I come on I see you posting. AM. And PM
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Quoting KoritheMan:

What work do you do? Mow the lawn? :)

I actually do cleaning work at my dad's work and before that a salon, until I got kicked. I'm not a person who sits on the computer all day, we both have lives.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
00z Best Track for 96L.

AL, 96, 2012100200, , BEST, 0, 99N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14918
Quoting wxchaser97:

Oh so school, homework, and some work that I have is considered free time? I guess I will try to enjoy these things while I can.




I no the best place for. Homework burn it
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Oh so school, homework, and some work that I have is considered free time? I guess I will try to enjoy these things while I can.
What work do you do? Mow the lawn? :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting KoritheMan:


But it doesn't suck at all when you only see it once a decade.


Exactly, and unless you live in Alaska, high elevation New England, UP Michigan, N. Minnesota, The Dakotas, Montana or the mountainous West, you will not see consistent snow for anywhere near 6 months of the year.

Lightning and periodic rain showers here in the Orlando area currently. Let it rain.
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Good evening

The NW Caribbean continues to sit and stew. Nothing imminent but the first two weeks of October are when we would expect to see some action in this area.

About 6 weeks ago I posted that the season would likely shut down early this year and with nothing of note at the September peak that could well be the case.
Have to wait and see.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Unlike you kids, I am a man of limited free time. Enjoy it while you can.

Oh so school, homework, and some work that I have is considered free time? I guess I will try to enjoy these things while I can.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

Quoting Tazmanian:
look oh i found


It's Oscar the Grouch!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
look oh i found


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Quoting wxchaser97:


More than just tired bloggers will be able to read it today, this is a first.
Unlike you kids, I am a man of limited free time. Enjoy it while you can.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
330. wxmod
MODIS Terra and Aqua images of North Pacific today



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Quoting Chicklit:

sure, okay. goodnight all.

Good night Chicklit.

Quoting KoritheMan:
I actually blogged early.

More than just tired bloggers will be able to read it today, this is a first.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I actually blogged early.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well she isn't looking too good and Nadine probably only has a couple days left.


That area is just an area of showers and thunderstorms that won't develop.

sure, okay. goodnight all.

Depth 26.C Isotherm
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AL, 14, 2012100200, , BEST, 0, 348N, 391W, 50, 997, TS

Well she isn't looking too good and Nadine probably only has a couple days left.

Quoting Chicklit:
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N87W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED IN THIS AREA...REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAD BECOME STATIONARY.
AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS NOW PRESENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

move along...nothing to see here...


That area is just an area of showers and thunderstorms that won't develop.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

SST's check.
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323. auburn (Mod)
I found this to be cool..thought I would share.

NASA's Mars rover Curiosity is enjoying some nice, warm weather on the Red Planet — and spring hasn't even come to its landing site yet.

Curiosity's onboard weather station, which is called the Remote Environment Monitoring Station (REMS), has measured air temperatures as high as 43 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius) in the afternoon. And temperatures have climbed above freezing during more than half of the Martian days, or sols, since REMS was turned on, scientists said.
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lower convergence

...at least not yet. But shear is low.
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AL, 14, 2012100200, , BEST, 0, 348N, 391W, 50, 997, TS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N87W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED IN THIS AREA...REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAD BECOME STATIONARY.
AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS NOW PRESENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

move along...nothing to see here...

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Quoting KoritheMan:

Just so everyone knows, I believe a 3+ mb drop in 24 hours is considered to be one of the signs of a developing system. So if anyone sees a tropical wave like that...
Yeah it is something like that, you also need a llc and convection. Our friend 96L is getting closer to TD status.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting KoritheMan:

...I consider 10C to be cold.


We have the record for the coldest wind chill recorded in Ontario. -58C.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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