End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

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Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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If there was ever any doubt as to whether or not it is official, here is the 0z ATCF file for Nadine:

997, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1020, 250, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,

Yet the advisory intensity still says 55 kt. Who would've thought?

Again, ATCF is a computer file. It is not data that is officially integrated in lieu of an advisory.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Fresh ASCAT 96L..


Elongated WSW to ENE... We'll have a TD tomorrow night.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Much more bullish this cycle. Likely has to do with the significant re-position south and west.


Are they serious? 110 Mph category 2 at day 5? Maybe Oscar wants to give Michael a run for his money at the top of the intensity list?
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Quoting Grothar:
Nadine may still want to move back west again.

Quoting Grothar:
Nadine may still want to move back west again.


I swear i'm gonna lose it, if Nadine swings back around the west again and regains TS/STS status.
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I better not wake up to a hurricane.

"THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF NEVER-ENDING NADINE HAS MADE A
COMEBACK THIS EVENING WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION...
WITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -60C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND THE OLD EYE
FEATURE. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS RECENT
RE-DEVELOPMENT TREND. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
HAVE DECREASED TO 3.0/45 KT...THE RECENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF EYEWALL
CONVECTION ARGUES THAT THE INTENSITY BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 78
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF NEVER-ENDING NADINE HAS MADE A
COMEBACK THIS EVENING WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION...
WITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -60C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND THE OLD EYE
FEATURE. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS RECENT
RE-DEVELOPMENT TREND. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
HAVE DECREASED TO 3.0/45 KT...THE RECENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF EYEWALL
CONVECTION ARGUES THAT THE INTENSITY BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON TWO CONSECUTIVE 34-KT WIND REPORTS
FROM SHIP VRBU6...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH 01/2210Z SSMIS-DERIVED
SURFACE WINDS CO-LOCATED IN THAT SAME AREA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 125/05 KT. NOMADIC NADINE HAS
FINALLY MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND. AS THE TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS WHILE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES...THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE NADINE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON DAYS 2 AND 3. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOTION AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER SYSTEM ON DAY 5. THE NHC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE HAS FOUND A SWEET SPOT OF
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED BENEATH
THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS
SHELTERING OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD AND EXPOSES NADINE TO
HOSTILE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE INCREASING SHEAR COUPLED
WITH DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER 48
HOURS...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 20C...
WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING ABOUT THE PERMANENT DEMISE OF THIS
RESILIENT AND LONG-LASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 34.7N 38.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 34.2N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 34.2N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 34.9N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 36.7N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...SOUTHWEST OF AZORES
72H 05/0000Z 44.0N 26.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/0000Z 48.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 78
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 38.9W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
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411. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Any ASCAT pass over 96L?


Fresh ASCAT 96L..

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...NADINE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...
11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 1
Location: 34.7°N 38.9°W
Moving: SE at 6 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 78
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 38.9W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
look at Pittsburg PA........36-39 lows
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Much more bullish this cycle. Likely has to do with the significant re-position south and west.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
Pretty hot in Sooo Cal today......about 100 15-20 miles inland from the beach.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
30'S-40'S depending where u r
wilmington nc....i see the 10 day forecast buts its still upper 70's lows around 60 here...which is basically like it is right now...are you talking beyond next wednesday?
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Homey say..he like huge trough buttocks.
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30'S-40'S depending where u r
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Quoting KoritheMan:

He's not gonna make it to Puerto Rico with that huge ass trough in the way.


What exactly are the dimensions of the trough's buttocks? I mean, I can only grasp dimensions of human buttocks, that is, if they are huge or not. However atmospheric buttocks sounds a little abstract to me.
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OMG I hate DMIN
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
At least back East


how nippy?
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Quoting Skyepony:


No moonbow for me~ The moon is low enough, nearly full but not quite bright enough.



Polar sat NOAA-15 AMSU 89 GHz Radiance click pic for loop.



Any ASCAT pass over 96L?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14260
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


hahaha I actually hope so! I want to see a record broken!!


Dude, respect to you from earlier. I know you're not into left wing stuff at all, but fair play to you for pointing out right wing stuff as well. I respect anyone who will play each side fairly despite difference of opinion. Coolness


I'd like to see Nadine take the cake as well.

Also, I hope that latter part of your comment wasn't meant for me, cause I would be horribly confused if so, lol. I'm just here for wx.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:





CENTER COULD BE EVEN MORE SOUTH
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395. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting avthunder:
Did you see a moon rainbow?


No moonbow for me~ The moon is low enough, nearly full but not quite bright enough.



Polar sat NOAA-15 AMSU 89 GHz Radiance click pic for loop.

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Quoting Slamguitar:


...Here we go again. O_o


hahaha I actually hope so! I want to see a record broken!!


Dude, respect to you from earlier. I know you're not into left wing stuff at all, but fair play to you for pointing out right wing stuff as well. I respect anyone who will play each side fairly despite difference of opinion. Coolness
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Quoting Gorty:


But can't it change and it follows the first set of models?
Anytime a model is predicting something, there's a reason for it. They don't just make stuff up.

So yes, it's possible. I don't just go by a computer simulation though, and neither should anyone else.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Heading for the Cayman's?
Or Florida or Cuba or Mexico or CA they are many potential places for landfall.
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6033
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for 96L.

AL, 96, 2012100200, , BEST, 0, 99N, 360W, 25, 1009, LO


QUITE A DIVE SOUTH AND WEST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL I LOVE THE 00Z CLIP5.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Right now it doesn't look like it will develop but we are in that time of year.


Yep it is, thanks
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A little change in the official forecast track...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11155
Quoting Grothar:
Nadine may still want to move back west again.



...Here we go again. O_o
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
The weather in the Caribbean have a shot at doing anything?

Right now it doesn't look like it will develop but we are in that time of year.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
CSU is calling for 1 hurricane in the West Caribbean during the October-November period.


Heading for the Cayman's?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
CSU is calling for 1 hurricane in the West Caribbean during the October-November period.
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At least back East
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CSU is calling for 1 hurricane in the West Caribbean during the October-November period.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
Weather forecast next week...dare I say a bit nippy?
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The weather in the Caribbean have a shot at doing anything?
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378. Gorty
Quoting KoritheMan:

The latter. This is rather easy to see, since the upper low supporting it is moving eastward. Even supposing it did move west, it is of a fairly high amplitude, so it would still recurve it.


But can't it change and it follows the first set of models?
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lol
Quoting avthunder:
Did you see a moon rainbow?
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4521
Quoting Skyepony:
It's raining & the moon is out...moonshower:)
Did you see a moon rainbow?
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Quoting avthunder:
Is this blob forecast to move north into Florida? We have a lot of rain tonight, but the forecast says it will be gone after tomorrow. Is tomorrow's rain from this blob? Seems it could not get up here that quickly...but I am not a blob expert, nor have I ever played one on TV.


All Blobortunnitys are refered to Gro!
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Nadine may still want to move back west again.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26137
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello good evening!!,we trust your opinion a lot on this blog for being serious and informative!.
What is your feeling about this system south of Cuba?,I know we are going to get a lot of rain!! here in South Florida,but you are right! I think this moisture has been seating there for a while now and we could see some type of tropical development in the next couple of days,any drops in pressure in the Cayman?.Thank you!.
Is this blob forecast to move north into Florida? We have a lot of rain tonight, but the forecast says it will be gone after tomorrow. Is tomorrow's rain from this blob? Seems it could not get up here that quickly...but I am not a blob expert, nor have I ever played one on TV.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11155
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

My left or your left? =P
your left .....lol
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Quoting Gorty:


Let's just say for the sake of learning, some models show that trough retreating to the west and others do not. Which models do you believe?

THIS IS JUST TO LEARN SOMETHING NEW BTW.
The latter. This is rather easy to see, since the upper low supporting it is moving eastward. Even supposing it did move west, it is of a fairly high amplitude, so it would still recurve it.
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369. Skyepony (Mod)
It's raining & the moon is out...moonshower:)
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hi to all from America's Left Coast

My left or your left? =P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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