End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

Share this Blog
44
+

Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 468 - 418

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm okay. Yourself?
bored but good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
hum I thought Helene was going to be a strong and beautiful hurricane that is why I vote in the hurricane wikia that she would be the strongest of the season and when they give the name Helene to that thing I was surprised.btw how you doing Kori?


I'm okay. Yourself?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


How do you think I feel? You know, having to write a TCR on something I don't believe was truly a tropical cyclone and all? :/
hum I thought Helene was going to be a strong and beautiful hurricane that is why I vote in the hurricane wikia that she would be the strongest of the season and when they give the name Helene to that thing I was surprised.btw how you doing Kori?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
I agree.I loose because of her in the betting pools :(


How do you think I feel? You know, having to write a TCR on something I don't believe was truly a tropical cyclone and all? :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh and...


Nadine looks to be bouncing back yet again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Helene looked worse than Jose.
I agree.I loose because of her in the betting pools :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Oh I forgot him, yes I definitely think Ernesto will be upgraded as well. He intensified really rapidly right at landfall haha. And the invest deserved a name over, say, Helene, and definitely over Jose hahaha.


Helene looked worse than Jose.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


What do you think about Ernesto, Beryl and that low 91 L (I think) in May...
I think Ernesto did reach cat 2 right at landfall (remember that eye) and Beryl could have made hurricane winds right before hitting Florida and that invest in May could have been a cyclone the NHC missed...maybe a moderate TS


Oh I forgot him, yes I definitely think Ernesto will be upgraded as well. He intensified really rapidly right at landfall haha. And the invest deserved a name over, say, Helene, and definitely over Jose hahaha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting popartpete:
So, am I correct? 96L will probably develop into at TD/TS or Hurricane, and models are divergent on whether it will follow Nadine out to sea or move more towards the Lesser Antilles islands. Who thinks what are the chances of each scenario happening.


The Lesser Antilles scenario is contingent on a weaker system. Given the favorable conditions, I don't think that's likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


How is it possible that this May invest was not Alberto????
I hope it's classified in post analysis... lots of work for NHC after season's over
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
458. flsky
Quoting allancalderini:
96L may be our last system coming from Africa I think the next two to three names I think will probably form in the Caribbean or near the east coast of USA.

Rather a safe bet for all that's been posted already....
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2047
I think the invest in July may be up to a ts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Oh oh... I bet the upgraded hurricane you're thinking would be Gordon. I also think the Caribbean may see a major this month, so you're probably right.

I actually think this year has an unusually high proportion of storms that could be upgraded. I think ones that have a good shot at being upgraded are Chris (definitely think he achieved hurricane status sooner than when they finally did it themselves, and was stronger than minimal), Gordon (to a major), Isaac (though not all the way up to a category 2), Leslie (probably to a moderate category 1), Michael (I have a hard time believing he strengthened to a minimal major that fast and leveled off so suddenly, meanwhile getting consistently better in his appearance), and finally, I think Nadine may have actually been a category 2 for a couple of hours.

It's probably because a lot of the storms this year were jokesters... not consolidating fully until before landfall, or just being so far out to see where adequate research can't be conducted. Who knows.
I think Ernesto may be up to a cat 2.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Oh oh... I bet the upgraded hurricane you're thinking would be Gordon. I also think the Caribbean may see a major this month, so you're probably right.

I actually think this year has an unusually high proportion of storms that could be upgraded. I think ones that have a good shot at being upgraded are Chris (definitely think he achieved hurricane status sooner than when they finally did it themselves, and was stronger than minimal), Gordon (to a major), Isaac (though not all the way up to a category 2), Leslie (probably to a moderate category 1), Michael (I have a hard time believing he strengthened to a minimal major that fast and leveled off so suddenly, meanwhile getting consistently better in his appearance), and finally, I think Nadine may have actually been a category 2 for a couple of hours.

It's probably because a lot of the storms this year were jokesters... not consolidating fully until before landfall, or just being so far out to see where adequate research can't be conducted. Who knows.


What do you think about Ernesto, Beryl and that low 91 L (I think) in May...
I think Ernesto did reach cat 2 right at landfall (remember that eye) and Beryl could have made hurricane winds right before hitting Florida and that invest in May could have been a cyclone the NHC missed...maybe a moderate TS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L may be our last system coming from Africa I think the next two to three names I think will probably form in the Caribbean or near the east coast of USA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Conisidering the fact that the season is going to be winding down slowly over the next couple of weeks...

I'm gonna luanch my Final predictions until CSU releases their next predictions...

2012 Final Numbers:
17 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

Basically that would mean...
3 more storms
2 more hurricanes
1 more major hurricane(+ an upgraded storm to a major)

Long-Range 2013 Predictions...
Because of the caribbean and western gulf's waters being untouched by any major storms this year, they will stay relatively warm, and recharge very quickly next year, along with the fact that El Nino(If it even shows itself over the next 2 months), will be fading and La Nina will return once again by next Summer. Furthermore, this would mean that we would expect to have ANOTHER above average season coming next year... Although we have dealt with Irene and Isaac these past years. I believe that the worst is yet to come sooner or later... It may seem like the meteoroligist/forecasters have been calling for the US to be struck the past 3 years straight... but I believe most droughts will end next year(Category 5 Drought and Major Hurricane landfall on the US)...
CUATION: this is a long-range forecast and I'm not going to call anything out until next season, but my opinions sway toward these thinkings...
Last, but not least... My long-range numbers...
15-17 Named storms
7-11 Hurricanes (Category 1-5)
3-6 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+)
1-3 INTENSE Hurricanes (Mid Cat. 4 or Higher)


Oh oh... I bet the upgraded hurricane you're thinking would be Gordon. I also think the Caribbean may see a major this month, so you're probably right.

I actually think this year has an unusually high proportion of storms that could be upgraded. I think ones that have a good shot at being upgraded are Chris (definitely think he achieved hurricane status sooner than when they finally did it themselves, and was stronger than minimal), Gordon (to a major), Isaac (though not all the way up to a category 2), Leslie (probably to a moderate category 1), Michael (I have a hard time believing he strengthened to a minimal major that fast and leveled off so suddenly, meanwhile getting consistently better in his appearance), and finally, I think Nadine may have actually been a category 2 for a couple of hours.

It's probably because a lot of the storms this year were jokesters... not consolidating fully until before landfall, or just being so far out to see where adequate research can't be conducted. Who knows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, am I correct? 96L will probably develop into at TD/TS or Hurricane, and models are divergent on whether it will follow Nadine out to sea or move more towards the Lesser Antilles islands. Who thinks what are the chances of each scenario happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Conisidering the fact that the season is going to be winding down slowly over the next couple of weeks...

I'm gonna luanch my Final predictions until CSU releases their next predictions...

2012 Final Numbers:
17 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

Basically that would mean...
3 more storms
2 more hurricanes
1 more major hurricane(+ an upgraded storm to a major)

Long-Range 2013 Predictions...
Because of the caribbean and western gulf's waters being untouched by any major storms this year, they will stay relatively warm, and recharge very quickly next year, along with the fact that El Nino(If it even shows itself over the next 2 months), will be fading and La Nina will return once again by next Summer. Furthermore, this would mean that we would expect to have ANOTHER above average season coming next year... Although we have dealt with Irene and Isaac these past years. I believe that the worst is yet to come sooner or later... It may seem like the meteoroligist/forecasters have been calling for the US to be struck the past 3 years straight... but I believe most droughts will end next year(Category 5 Drought and Major Hurricane landfall on the US)...
CUATION: this is a long-range forecast and I'm not going to call anything out until next season, but my opinions sway toward these thinkings...
Last, but not least... My long-range numbers...
15-17 Named storms
7-11 Hurricanes (Category 1-5)
3-6 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+)
1-3 INTENSE Hurricanes (Mid Cat. 4 or Higher)


I think what's stopping the US from being hit is the persistent drought region over Texas and the midwest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder if there will be any time of development off the East coast of Florida. The area is beginning to catch my interest.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
Quoting angelafritz:


We are ENSO-neutral (still) but the SST in the equatorial pacific is warmer than normal, so we're borderline el Nino. That being said... looks like CPC is predicting a drier than average next three months in the PNW.


Bring on the winter weather here in the South-East! It failed to make it to 60 degrees here in the foothills of western North Carolina today. Heavy mist and fog all day. Heavy rain now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


We could blame everything on the comet til it gets here..

Could this dim spot brighten into one of the brightest comets ever? It's possible. Alternatively, the comet could break up when it gets closer to the Sun, or brighten much more modestly. Sky enthusiasts the world over are all abuzz, though, from the more optimistic speculations -- that the newly discovered C/2012 S1 (ISON) could develop a spectacular tail or briefly approach the brightness of the full Moon toward the end of 2013. Comet ISON currently is very faint but is just visible at magnitude 18 in the above image. The comet, discovered just over a week ago from Russia by Vitali Nevski (Belarus) and Artyom Novichonok (Russia), is currently falling toward the Sun from between the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn. In early 2013 October it will pass very near Mars and possibly be visible to rovers and orbiting spacecraft. Comet ISON appears on course to achieve sungrazer status as it passes within a solar diameter of Sun's surface in late 2013 November. Whatever survives will then pass nearest the Earth in late 2013 December. Astronomers around the world will be tracking this large dirty snowball closely to better understand its nature and how it might evolve during the next 15 months.



I don't think that comet has ever been seen before.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
Quoting Jedkins01:
A complex pattern setting up for us Floridians, it could mean either a massive amount of rain the next several days or just a substantial coverage in showers and storms and a decent amount of rain. The models are not in agreement and typically perform poorly with these types of situations. No surprise, there's always some model confusion with Florida forecasts lol. Well not always, but forecasting around here can be quite hard. Anyways, The NWS notes of this uncertainly in the forecasts by mentioning there is potential for very heavy rainfall to setup over Central and South Florida, but it's hard to say where and to what degree.


What is known though, is that showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous this week regardless.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54870
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
I smell Oscar


Does it smell like...






Hotdogs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A complex pattern setting up for us Floridians, it could mean either a massive amount of rain the next several days or just a substantial coverage in showers and storms and a decent amount of rain. The models are not in agreement and typically perform poorly with these types of situations. No surprise, there's always some model confusion with Florida forecasts lol. Well not always, but forecasting around here can be quite hard. Anyways, The NWS notes of this uncertainly in the forecasts by mentioning there is potential for very heavy rainfall to setup over Central and South Florida, but it's hard to say where and to what degree.


What is known though, is that showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous this week regardless.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7836
Current pressure here in Cayman 1013 Mb , down a hair from an hour ago. Had some wind gusts today up to 38 mph

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Conisidering the fact that the season is going to be winding down slowly over the next couple of weeks...

I'm gonna luanch my Final predictions until CSU releases their next predictions...

2012 Final Numbers:
17 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

Basically that would mean...
3 more storms
2 more hurricanes
1 more major hurricane(+ an upgraded storm to a major)

Long-Range 2013 Predictions...
Because of the caribbean and western gulf's waters being untouched by any major storms this year, they will stay relatively warm, and recharge very quickly next year, along with the fact that El Nino(If it even shows itself over the next 2 months), will be fading and La Nina will return once again by next Summer. Furthermore, this would mean that we would expect to have ANOTHER above average season coming next year... Although we have dealt with Irene and Isaac these past years. I believe that the worst is yet to come sooner or later... It may seem like the meteoroligist/forecasters have been calling for the US to be struck the past 3 years straight... but I believe most droughts will end next year(Category 5 Drought and Major Hurricane landfall on the US)...
CUATION: this is a long-range forecast and I'm not going to call anything out until next season, but my opinions sway toward these thinkings...
Last, but not least... My long-range numbers...
15-17 Named storms
7-11 Hurricanes (Category 1-5)
3-6 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+)
1-3 INTENSE Hurricanes (Mid Cat. 4 or Higher)


I can't imagine if the conditions in our hemisphere had been like in the WEST PACIFIC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angelafritz:


We are ENSO-neutral (still) but the SST in the equatorial pacific is warmer than normal, so we're borderline el Nino. That being said... looks like CPC is predicting a drier than average next three months in the PNW.

Good to see you here Angela, what are your thoughts on the remainder of the season, and what is to come?

Comment 437.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
438. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting Sandpoint21:
Anyone know what El Nino is doing? And will the Pacific Northwest have a dry, boring winter?


We are ENSO-neutral (still) but the SST in the equatorial pacific is warmer than normal, so we're borderline el Nino. That being said... looks like CPC is predicting a drier than average next three months in the PNW.
Conisidering the fact that the season is going to be winding down slowly over the next couple of weeks...

I'm gonna luanch my Final predictions until CSU releases their next predictions...

2012 Final Numbers:
17 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

Basically that would mean...
3 more storms
2 more hurricanes
1 more major hurricane(+ an upgraded storm to a major)

Long-Range 2013 Predictions...
Because of the caribbean and western gulf's waters being untouched by any major storms this year, they will stay relatively warm, and recharge very quickly next year, along with the fact that El Nino(If it even shows itself over the next 2 months), will be fading and La Nina will return once again by next Summer. Furthermore, this would mean that we would expect to have ANOTHER above average season coming next year... Although we have dealt with Irene and Isaac these past years. I believe that the worst is yet to come sooner or later... It may seem like the meteoroligist/forecasters have been calling for the US to be struck the past 3 years straight... but I believe most droughts will end next year(Category 5 Drought and Major Hurricane landfall on the US)...
CUATION: this is a long-range forecast and I'm not going to call anything out until next season, but my opinions sway toward these thinkings...
Last, but not least... My long-range numbers...
15-17 Named storms
7-11 Hurricanes (Category 1-5)
3-6 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+)
1-3 INTENSE Hurricanes (Mid Cat. 4 or Higher)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone know what El Nino is doing? And will the Pacific Northwest have a dry, boring winter?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
434. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
CSU is calling for 1 hurricane in the West Caribbean during the October-November period.


Wow, really laying it out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
433. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


They looked like contrails.


We could blame everything on the comet til it gets here..

Could this dim spot brighten into one of the brightest comets ever? It's possible. Alternatively, the comet could break up when it gets closer to the Sun, or brighten much more modestly. Sky enthusiasts the world over are all abuzz, though, from the more optimistic speculations -- that the newly discovered C/2012 S1 (ISON) could develop a spectacular tail or briefly approach the brightness of the full Moon toward the end of 2013. Comet ISON currently is very faint but is just visible at magnitude 18 in the above image. The comet, discovered just over a week ago from Russia by Vitali Nevski (Belarus) and Artyom Novichonok (Russia), is currently falling toward the Sun from between the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn. In early 2013 October it will pass very near Mars and possibly be visible to rovers and orbiting spacecraft. Comet ISON appears on course to achieve sungrazer status as it passes within a solar diameter of Sun's surface in late 2013 November. Whatever survives will then pass nearest the Earth in late 2013 December. Astronomers around the world will be tracking this large dirty snowball closely to better understand its nature and how it might evolve during the next 15 months.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 197 Comments: 38787
Quoting Skyepony:
Some interesting anomalies in the 24hr MIMIC for Nadine.

That's a big jump to the west, at the end of that animation... also notice the new partial eyewall forming...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Some interesting anomalies in the 24hr MIMIC for Nadine.


They looked like contrails.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
430. Skyepony (Mod)
Some interesting anomalies in the 24hr MIMIC for Nadine.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 197 Comments: 38787
Please ignore, and don't quote comment 423.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
Never-ending Nadine:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Are they serious? 110 Mph category 2 at day 5? Maybe Oscar wants to give Michael a run for his money at the top of the intensity list?

It is possible as the NHC that 96L is in favorable conditions. I just hope we see the name Oscar for the first time.

Quoting KoritheMan:
If there was ever any doubt as to whether or not it is official, here is the 0z ATCF file for Nadine:

997, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1020, 250, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M, Yet the advisory intensity still says 55 kt. Who would've thought?

Again, ATCF is a computer file. It is not data that is officially integrated in lieu of an advisory.

That is just the latest example, thanks for sharing that Kori.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting goalexgo:
Gro.....

Blob update, please!!!


Disorganized blob. Pressures are not falling, atmosphere around it not that unstable. Possible strong moisture plumes over Cuba, Jamaica and the Caymans later moving toward the Florida peninsula.

Nadine. After 3 days she may begin moving west if the trough is not strong enough to push her all the way east.

96L favorable environment for development. Should become strong before being swept up to the NE. Two models are keeping it weaker for a few days and moving it a little further west.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
What a dud of a season!!nothing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
422. Skyepony (Mod)
NADINE looking better than this morning.. I dedicated my latest blog to the Nadine Cheer Squad..GO NADINE!

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 197 Comments: 38787
Gro.....

Blob update, please!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I swear i'm gonna lose it, if Nadine swings back around the west again and regains TS/STS status.


Add Nadine to the list....


LIST OF STORMS THAT I WANT TO RETIRE BECAUSE I NEVER WANT TO TRACK THEM AGAIN:
I-wanna-kill, Karen
OMG-GO AWAY, Emily
Never-ending nightmare, Nadine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If there was ever any doubt as to whether or not it is official, here is the 0z ATCF file for Nadine:

997, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1020, 250, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,

Yet the advisory intensity still says 55 kt. Who would've thought?

Again, ATCF is a computer file. It is not data that is officially integrated in lieu of an advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 468 - 418

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
38 °F
Overcast